14 Table 7.1 Fertility decline in East Asia p.166 Fertility decline in East Asia（total fertility rate）YearChina AChina BKoreaThailandTaiwanHong Kong220.127.116.11.18.104.22.168.46.04.75.95.22.214.171.124.04.84.15.03.126.96.36.199.188.8.131.52.43.02.21.81.184.108.40.206
18 7.4 Consequences of the One- child Policy subjects reading :1.Neither necessary nor appropriate2.Different TRF from region to region3.Unbalanced sex ratio4.Missing girls5.The scarcity of females
19 7.4 Consequences of the One- child Policy The One-Child Policy has been controversial.During 1983 , 19% of total births were third order and above, and in 80’s about 50% of all births were first children.The One-Child Policy involves a substantial level of coercion applied by the government against the Chinese population.The most important side effect of the One-Child Policy derive from the Chinese preference for sons.In most populations,more boys than girls are born.Underreporting cannot fully explain unbalanced sex ration.
21 7.5 Changing age structure of the population subjects reading :1.declining dependency rates.2.Explain rapid growth in per capita GDP.3.Changing of the labor force.4.The urban labor force drops causes GDP growth slowly.5.An rapid aging population.6.Implications of population aging for social security and pension programs.
22 7.5 Changing age structure of the population A window of opportunity for China’s economy.From is in a trough of its dependency rate.Declining dependency rates and rapid economic development.Changing of the labor force.The growth of working-age will reach zero growth after 2015
23 7.5 Changing age structure of the population Slower growth of the urban labor force will almost surely be associated with slower overall GDP as well.Later on, an aging population will create substantial strains on China’s social system.In rural areas 9% of those aged 60 and over do not live in multigenerational households.
24 7.5 Changing age structure of the population Compare with rural to urban1.Rural elders are usually not covered by the pension plans.2.Have a lower overall income.3.Have higher dependency rates.Since the 1990s the Chinese government has struggled to set up a funded pension system.
28 7.6 ConclusionThe One-Child Policy has shaped China in many important ways and has had important impacts on its economic development.The One-Child Policy is responsible for several of problems that will challenge policy-maker in the future.
29 7.6 Conclusion1.The One-Child Policy will cause the number of retirees and the future elderly dependent ratio to increase particularly quickly,exacerbating future demographic strains.2.The One-Child Policy has let to serious gender imbalance that may ultimately lead to discontent and further problems.3.The One-Child Policy has led to the collapse of a credible government birth reporting system.