1 Chapter 5 The Standard Trade Model 标准贸易模型  Introduction 导论  A Standard Model of a Trading Economy 开放经济的标准模 型  International Transfers of Income: Shifting the RD Curve 国 际收入转移：ＲＤ曲线的移动  Tariffs and Export Subsidies: Simultaneous Shifts in RS and RD 关税和出口补贴：ＲＤ和ＲＳ同时移动  Summary  Appendix: Representing International Equilibrium with Offer Curves

2 Introduction  Previous trade theories have emphasized specific sources of comparative advantage which give rise to international trade:  Differences in labor productivity (Ricardian model)  Differences in resources (specific factors model and Heckscher-Ohlin model)  The standard trade model is a general model of trade that admits these models as special cases.

3 5-1 A Standard Model of a Trading Economy  The standard trade model is built on four key relationships: 标准贸易模型建立在四个重要关系 基础上：  Production possibility frontier and the relative supply curve 生产可能性边界与相对供给曲线之间的关系  Relative prices and relative demand 相对价格与相对需 求之间的关系  World relative supply and world relative demand 世界 相对需求与相对供给之间的关系  Terms of trade and national welfare 贸易条件与国家福利

4  Production Possibilities and Relative Supply 生产 可能性和相对供给  Assumptions of the model: 假设  Each country produces two goods, food (F) and cloth (C) 生产 两种产品：棉布和粮食  Each country’s production possibility frontier is a smooth curve (TT) 平滑的生产可能性曲线  The point on its production possibility frontier at which an economy actually produces depends on the price of cloth relative to food, P C /P F.  Isovalue lines(P94) 等价值线  Lines along which the market value of output is constant 同一 条等价值线的产出价值不变

5 Figure 5-1: Relative Prices Determine the Economy’s Output(P91) 产品相对价格确定社会产出 Q Isovalue lines 等价 值线 TT Cloth production, 棉布产出 Q C Food production, 粮食产出 Q F

6 Figure 5-2: How an Increase in the Relative Price of Cloth Affects Relative Supply(P91) 棉布相对价格上升对相对供给的影响 Q1Q1 VV 1 (P C /P F ) 1 Q2Q2 VV 2 (P C /P F ) 2 TT Cloth production, Q C Food production, Q F

7  Relative Prices and Demand 相对价格与 需求  The value of an economy‘s consumption equals the value of its production: 社会消费价 值与社会生产价值相等 P C Q C + P F Q F = P C D C + P F D F = V  The economy’s choice of a point on the isovalue line depends on the tastes of its consumers, which can be represented graphically by a series of indifference curves. 无差异曲线

8  Indifference curves(P92)  Each traces a set of combinations of two goods consumption that leave the individual equally well off 无差异曲线是指在同一消费水平上不同消费组合的轨 迹。  They have three properties: 三个特点：  Downward sloping 向下倾斜  The farther up and to the right each lies, the higher the level of welfare to which it corresponds 离原点越远，福利水平越 高  Each gets flatter as we move to the right 平坦的方向影响到 产品的相对边际效用。

9 TT Figure 5-3: Production, Consumption, and Trade in the Standard Model(P92) 标准模型中的生产、消费和贸易 棉布产量 Cloth production, Q C 粮食产量 Food production, Q F Q D Indifference curves 无差异曲线 粮食进口 Food imports 棉布出口 Cloth exports

10  If the relative price of cloth, P C /P F, increases, the economy’s consumption choice shifts from D 1 to D 2. 相对价格提高对、产出和消费选择的影 响：  The move from D 1 to D 2 reflects two effects:  Income effect 收入效用（福利提高）：两种产品的消费均增 加  Substitution effect 替代效用：给定福利水平下消费点的移 动），减少对棉布消费，增加对粮食的消费  It is possible that the income effect will be so strong that when P C /P F rises, consumption of both goods actually rises, while the ratio of cloth consumption to food consumption falls. 当相对价格提高时，收入效用 更强

11 TT Figure 5-4: Effects of a Rise in the Relative Price of Cloth(P93) 棉布相对价格提高的影响 Q1Q1 VV 1 (P C /P F ) 1 Q2Q2 VV 2 (P C /P F ) 2 D2D2 D1D1 Cloth production 棉布生产, Q C Food production 粮食生产, Q F

12  The Welfare Effect of Changes in the Terms of Trade ：贸易条件变化对福利水平 的影响  Terms of trade 贸易条件  The price of the good a country ‘s exports divided by the price of its imports.(P94) 定义：一国出口产 品价格除以进口产品价格。  A rise in the terms of trade increases a country’s welfare, while a decline in the terms of trade reduces its welfare.(P94) 一国福利水平随着贸易条 件的变化而变化：贸易条件提高改善一国福利水平， 而下降则减少一国福利水平。

13 案例分析 : 发达国家和发展中国家的贸易条件 发达国家和发展中国家 1972 － 1993 年的贸易条件 （单位出口价值 / 单位进口价值， 1972 年为 100 ） 年度 发展中国 家 石油出口 国 其他国家 发达国家

14 发达国家和发展中国家 1972 － 1993 年的贸 易条件（单位出口价值 / 单位进口价值， 1972 年为 100) 年度 发展中 国家 石油出 口国 其他国 家 发达国 家

15  Determining Relative Prices 相对价格的确定  Suppose that the world economy consists of two countries: 假设条件  Home (which exports cloth) 本国出口棉布  Its terms of trade are measured by P C /P F  Its quantities of cloth and food produced are Q C and Q F 两种产品 的产量  Foreign (which exports food) 外国出口粮食  Its terms of trade are measured by P F /P C  Its quantities of cloth and food produced are Q * C and Q * F  外国两种产品的产量 Q * C 和 Q * F

16  To determine P C /P F, one must find the intersection of world relative supply of cloth and world relative demand. 世界相对价格是世界相对需求和相对供应的交点。  The world relative supply curve (RS) is upward sloping because an increase in P C /P F leads both countries to produce more cloth and less food. 世界相对价格曲线向上倾斜是因为 P C /P F 上升将导 致两国增加棉布的生产，减少粮食的生产。  The world relative demand curve (RD) is downward sloping because an increase in P C /P F leads both countries to shift their consumption mix away from cloth toward food. 世界相对需求向下倾斜，是因为随着相对价格的提高两种产品的消 费将减少。

17 Figure 5-5: World Relative Supply and Demand(P95) 世界相对需求与供应 RS RD Relative price 相对价格 of cloth, P C /P F 相对数量 of cloth, Q C + Q * C Q F + Q * F (P C /P F ) 1 1

18  Economic Growth: A Shift of the RS Curve 经济增长与相 对供给曲线的移动  Is economic growth in other countries good or bad for our nation? 外国经济增长对本国有利还是有害？  It may be good for our nation because it means larger markets for our exports. 本国出口市场扩大  It may mean increased competition for our exporters. 本国出口竞争 更激烈  Is growth in a country more or less valuable when that nation is part of a closely integrated world economy? 本国成为世界经济一 部分，对本国有利还是有害？  It should be more valuable when a country can sell some of its increased production to the world market. 本国生产能力加强能使本 国向世界市场出口更多的产品  It is less valuable when the benefits of growth are passed on to foreigners rather than retained at home. 经济增长带来的收益可能会 以本国出口产品价格降低的形式转移到国外消费者而非由本国所得。

19  Growth and the Production Possibility Frontier 增 长与生产可能性边界  Economic growth implies an outward shift of a country’s production possibility frontier (TT). 经济增长意 味着向外扩张的生产可能性边界  Biased growth 偏向的增长  Takes place when TT shifts out more in one direction than in the other(P96) 生产可能性边界在一个方向扩张的幅度大于另一 个方向上扩张的幅度，我们称之为偏向的增长。  Can occur for two reasons 两个原因 :  Technological progress in one sector of the economy 某行业技术 进步  Increase in a country’s supply of a factor of production 要素供应 增加

20 Figure 5-6: Biased Growth(P96) 偏向增长 TT 1 TT 2 Cloth production, Q C Food production, Q F (a)Growth biased toward cloth 偏向于棉布的增长 Cloth production, Q C Food production, Q F (b) Growth biased toward food 偏向于粮食的增长

21  Relative Supply and the Terms of Trade 相对供应与贸易条件  Export-biased growth 出口偏向的增长  Disproportionately expands a country’s production possibilities in the direction of the good it exports(P97) 使一国 生产可能性边界向出口产品偏向，称为出口偏向增长。  Worsens a growing country’s terms of trade, to the benefit of the rest of the world 出口偏向增长本国贸易条件恶化  Import-biased growth 进口偏向的增长  Disproportionately expands a country’s production possibilities in the direction of the good it imports 使一国生产 可能性边界向进口产品偏向，称为进口偏向增长  Improves a growing country’s terms of trade at the rest of the word’s expense 进口偏向增长本国贸易条件改善

22 Figure 5-7: Growth and Relative Supply(P98) 增长与相对供应 Relative price of cloth, P C /P F Relative quantity of cloth, Q C + Q * C Q F + Q * F RS 1 RD 1 (P C /P F ) 1 RS 2 (P C /P F ) 2 2 Relative price of cloth, P C /P F Relative quantity of cloth, Q C + Q * C Q F + Q * F RS 2 RD 2 (P C /P F ) 2 RS 1 (P C /P F ) 1 1 (a)Cloth-biased growth 棉布偏向的增长 (b) Food-biased growth 粮食偏向的增长

23  International Effects of Growth 经济增长的国际 影响  Export-biased growth in the rest of the world improves our terms of trade, while import-biased growth abroad worsens our terms of trade. 世界其他国家的出口偏向 型增长对本国有利，能改善本国贸易条件  Export-biased growth in our country worsens our terms of trade, reducing the direct benefits of growth, while import-biased growth leads to an improvement of our terms of trade. 本国出口偏向型增长使本国贸易 条件恶化，减少增长带来的收益；而进口偏向型增长 能提高本国贸易条件。

24  Immiserizing growth 贫困化的增长（福利恶化型增长）  A situation where export-biased growth by poor nations can worsen their terms of trade so much that they would be worse off than if they had not grown at all 。出口偏向型增长将使 本国 贸易条件恶化，以至于该国福利水平比经济增长前还要低。  It can occur under extreme conditions: Strongly export-biased growth must be combined with very steep RS and RD curves. 这 种福利恶化型增长在非常极端的条件下才发生。  It is regarded by most economists as more a theoretical point than a real-world issue. 因此，是纯理论而非实际发生。

25 Table 5-1: Average Annual Percent Changes in Terms of Trade

International Transfers of Income: Shifting the RD Curve 国际收入转移： RD 曲线的移动  International transfers of income, such as war reparations and foreign aid, may affect a country’s terms of trade by shifting the world relative demand curve. 国际收入转移通过影响世 界相对需求来影响一国贸易条件。  Relative world demand for goods may shift because of: 世界相对需求曲线移动的原因主要有 三个：  Changes in tastes 偏好改变  Changes in technology 技术改变  International transfers of income 收入改变  The Transfer Problem 转移的问题  How international transfers affect the terms of trade 收 入转移如何影响贸易条件

27  Effects of a Transfer on the Terms of Trade  When both countries allocate their change in spending in the same proportions (Ohlin’s point):  The RD curve will not shift, and there will be no terms of trade effect. 按照 Ohlin 的观点，当收入重新分配后，但外国额 外收入在棉布和粮食之间的分配比例和本国支出减少后支出分 配比例相同，则贸易条件不会改变。  相反地，如果比例发生变化，则贸易条件会发生变化。 When the two countries do not allocate their change in spending in the same proportions (Keynes’s point):  The RD curve will shift and there will be a terms of trade effect. The direction of the effect on terms of trade will depend on the difference in Home and Foreign spending patterns. 相对需求变化将导致贸易条件发生变化，对贸易条件 影响的方向依赖于国内外支出模式的差异。

28 Figure 5-8: Effects of a Transfer on the Terms of Trade(P101) 收入转移对贸易条件的影响 Relative price of cloth, P C /P F Relative quantity of cloth, Q C + Q * C Q F + Q * F RS RD 2 RD 1 (P C /P F ) (P C /P F ) 1

29  Marginal Propensity to Spend: the change of a country’s expenditure divided by the change of its income. 支出的边 际倾向：支出的变化除以收入的变化  A transfer worsens the donor’s terms of trade if the donor has a higher marginal propensity to spend on its export good than the recipient.(P102) 如果收入转出国对出口产品 的边际支出倾向比转入国高，则收入转移使转出国的贸易条 件恶化。相反，则反之。  If the donor has a lower marginal propensity to spend on its export good than the recipient,its terms of trade will actually improve.

30  Presumptions about the Terms of Trade Effects of Transfers 推断  A transfer will worsen the donor’s terms of trade if the donor has a higher marginal propensity to spend on its export good than the recipient. 如果转出国对其出口产品的边际倾向大于转入国， 则转出国贸易条件会恶化。  In practice, most countries spend a much higher share of their income on domestically produced goods than foreigners do. 实 际上，每个国家对本国生产的产品具有偏好。（本国偏好）  This is not necessarily due to differences in taste but rather to barriers to trade, natural and artificial. 主要源于贸易壁垒的存在（自 然和人为的壁垒）

31 非石油国的发展中国家的贸易条件（ 1980 ＝ 100 ）

32  Import tariffs (P104) and export subsidies (P109) affect both relative supply and relative demand. 均影响到相对供给和相对需求  Relative Demand and Supply Effects of a Tariff 关税对相对需求和相对供给的影响  Tariffs drive a wedge 锲子 between the prices at which goods are traded internationally (external prices) and the prices at which they are traded within a country (internal prices). 关税造成产品在国内（内部 价格）和国际市场（外部价格）上价格差异。  The terms of trade correspond to external, not internal, prices. 贸易条件是外部价格, 而不是内部价格。 5-3 Tariffs and Export Subsidies: Simultaneous Shifts in RS and RD 关税和出口补贴： RS 和 RD 曲线的同 时移动

33 Figure 5-9: Effects of a Tariff on the Terms of Trade 关税对贸易条件的影响 Relative price of cloth, P C /P F Relative quantity of cloth, Q C + Q * C Q F + Q * F RS 1 RD 1 RD 2 RS 2 (P C /P F ) 1 1 (P C /P F ) 2 2

34  Effects of an Export Subsidy 出口补贴的影 响  Tariffs and export subsidies are often treated as similar policies but they have opposite effects on the terms of trade. 出口补贴与关税对 贸易条件具有相反的影响  Example: Suppose that Home offers 20% subsidy on the value of cloth exported:  This will raise Home’s internal price of cloth relative to food by 20%.  This will lead Home producers to produce more cloth and less food.  A Home export subsidy worsens Home’s terms of trade and improves Foreign’s 出口补贴恶化本国贸易 条件

35 Figure 5-10: Effects of a Subsidy on the Terms of Trade 出口补贴对贸易条件的影响 Relative price of cloth, P C /P F Relative quantity of cloth, Q C + Q * C Q F + Q * F RS 1 RD 1 RD 2 RS 2 (P C /P F ) 1 1 (P C /P F ) 2 2

36  Implications of Terms of Trade Effects: Who Gains and Who Loses? 贸易条件效应的应用：谁 得谁失？  The International Distribution of Income 收入的国际 分配  If Home (a large country) imposes a tariff, its welfare increases as long as the tariff is not too large, while Foreign’s welfare decreases.  If Home offers an export subsidy, its welfare deteriorates, while Foreign’s welfare increases. 如果本国是个大国，征收不 是太高的关税后对本国有利，外国福利下降。而本国的出口补 贴使本国福利下降，外国福利水平提高。  The Distribution of Income Within Countries 收入的 国内分配  A tariff (subsidy) has the direct effect of raising the internal relative price of the imported (exported) good. 直接作用于相 对价格  Tariffs and export subsidies might have perverse effects on internal prices (Metzler paradox). 贸易条件效应：对价格具有 相反的影响（ Metzler 悖论）

37 Summary  The standard trade model provides a framework that can be used to address a wide range of international issues and admits previous trade models as special cases.  A country’s terms of trade are determined by the intersection of the world relative supply and demand curves.  Economic growth is usually biased. Growth that is export-biased (import-biased) worsens (improves) the terms of trade.

38  International transfers of income may affect a country’s terms of trade, depending if they shift the world relative demand curve.  Import tariffs and export subsidies affect both relative supply and demand.  The terms of trade effects of an export subsidy hurt the exporting country and benefit the rest of the world, while those of a tariff do the reverse.  Both trade instruments have strong income distribution effects within countries. Summary

39 Figure 5A-1: Home’s Desired Trade at a Given Relative Price T Desired imports of food Desired exports of cloth Home’s imports, D F - Q F Home’s exports, Q C - D C O PC/PFPC/PF Appendix: Representing International Equilibrium with Offer Curves

40 Figure 5A-2: Home’s Offer Curve C T2T2 T1T1 Appendix: Representing International Equilibrium with Offer Curves Home’s imports, D F - Q F Home’s exports, Q C - D C O

41 Figure 5A-3: Foreign’s Offer Curve F Appendix: Representing International Equilibrium with Offer Curves Foreign’s exports, Q * F – D * F Foreign’s imports, D * C – Q * C O

42 Appendix: Representing International Equilibrium with Offer Curves Figure 5A-4: Offer Curve Equilibrium C F X Y E Home’s exports of cloth, Q C – D C Foreign’s imports of cloth, D * C – Q * C O Home’s imports of food, D F – Q F Foreign’s exports of cloth, Q *F – D * F

43 Question  P115,4