North China Water Quality Study Program 世界银行项目 中国北方城市水管理研究项目 North China Water Quality Study Program 供水部分研究 Water Utility Performance Study 张金松 博士 Dr. Jinsong Zhang 深圳市水务（集团）有限公司总工程师 Chief Engineer of Shenzhen Water GROUP 哈尔滨工业大学博士生导师 PhD Supervisor , Harbin Institute of Technology June , 2005

总体思路 Methodology 投资分析及预测 绩效评价系统 研究范围：北方地区14个省及直辖市 Regions：14 Provinces/Municipalities in Northern China 确定城市规模，选择调研城市 Cities Scales and Classical Cities 数据调查 Survey 城市调研 Investigation 投资分析及预测 绩效评价系统 历史投资分析 绩效系统指标筛选 新增供水设施预测 绩效评价系统的建立 更新改造投资预测 调研城市供水企业绩效分析 Investment Analysis and Prediction Performance Benchmarking System 关键问题识别 Key Issues

研究对象 Regions and Categories Inner Mongolia Hubei Shanxi Anhui Shandong liaoning Jilin Heilongjiang Beijing shaanxi Henan Jiangsu Hebei Tianjin should add population numbers to show the scales The studies were performed in northern China along with both in 14 Provinces/municipalities 主要研究对象为中国北方地区14省/直辖市

城市规模 City Scales 4 City Scales 四类城市 100 50 20 Super Large Unit: 10,000 Unit: 10,000 单位：万人 Number of cities 26 Medium Small 41 80 214 Population 5978 2743 2489 2340 4 City Scales 四类城市

调研城市 Investigated Cities Ankang Weifang Haerbin Handan Han gu Tianjin Jiaozuo Suqian Shenzhen Bozhou Yuncheng The investigations were performed in 10 cities of northern China and Shenzhen for comparison. 调研的主要对象为中国北方地区的10个城市，并以深圳作对比。

Field investigation 实地调研 数据来源 Data Source and Quality Statistical Yearbook 统计年鉴 Websites 网站 Field investigation 实地调研

供水行业投资分析和预测 Investment Analysis and Prediction PERIOD 阶段 ☞ 1996~2003 Historical Analysis 1996~2003 历史分析 ☞ 2005~2010 Prediction 2005~2010 预测 INVESTMENT 投资 ☞ Distribution: Provinces, City scale 分布：省份，城市规模 ☞ Investment Source 来源 　 ☞ Investment Destination: Raw water，WTP，Network 　 去向: 源水，水厂，管网

历史投资分析 Historical Investment Analysis Annual per Capita Investment 14 provinces 14个省份 Shandong Jiangsu Liaoning Hebei Beijing Henan Heilongjiang Inner mongolia Hubei Shannxi JIlin Shanxi Anhui Tianjin Sum 57.6 billion 合计576亿 Investment 各省投资 Inner mongolia liaoning Jiangsu Beijing Heibei Shannxi Shandong Heilongjiang Jilin Tianjin Henan Shanxi Anhui Hubei Annual per Capita Investment 各省每年人均投资 AVE 53

历史投资分析 Historical Investment Analysis 4 city scales 四类城市 Large AVE 53 Super Large Medium Small Investment Ratio 投资比例 Annual per Capita Investment (RMB) 每年人均投资(元)

历史投资分析 Historical Investment Analysis Investment source& Destination 投资来源&去向 History: Government bonds and local financial appropriations, domestic loans and self-raised funds added up to over 80% of the total investments. 历史：国债、地方拨款、国内贷款、自筹资金是投资主要来源，占总投资比例达到80％以上。 Future: More foreign and private capital will be invested. 未来：外资和民间资本的投资力度将不断加大。 Projects Survey (项目调查方法） Regression: Investment ∝ Capacity, Length 　回归分析方法：投资∝供水能力，供水管长 Comprehensive Unit Prices (综合单价方法） Raw Water 20% WTP 29% Network 51%

未来投资预测 Future Investment Prediction 投资预测技术路线 Methodology of Investment Prediction 未来投资预测 Future Investment Prediction Analysis on Factors Influencing Water Consumption Prediction on Water Consumption Current Unused Capacity Groundwater withdrawal Policity Investment Prediction on Newly Added Water Supply Facilities Investment Prediction Investment prediction on replacement and renovation Four Scales of cities Provinces Prediction on Newly Added Water Supply Capacity & Facilities On Pipe Network Renewal on Water Plant Renovation

未来投资预测 Future Investment Prediction Water Supply keeps stable 供水保持平衡 Domestic water (生活用水量) Correlation Analysis with urban population 相关性分析（与用水人口回归） Industrial water (工业用水量) 10,000 RMB output water consumption (万元产值耗水量法) Elastic coefficient (弹性系数法) 23.4 21.9 21.9 Industry 工业 8.25 9.78 21.2 Domestic 生活 12.12 13.65 Unit: Billion m3 2003 2010

未来投资预测 Future Investment Prediction Public supplier S/D ratio High Supply/Demand Ratio 供需比过高 Average S/D ratio almost reaches 2.0 平均供需比将近2.0 公用供水企业供需比 Public supplier S/D ratio

未来投资预测 Future Investment Prediction Groundwater Protection 地下水保护 Stringent policies 严格政策 Water Diversion Project南水北调工程

未来投资预测 Future Investment Prediction Newly installed capacity 新建供水能力 The Scenarios are divided according to Self-built wells closing and Groundwater reduction proportion in cities covered by SNWD projects. 方案根据自备井关闭比例以及南水北调受水区城市地下水压缩比例划分。 Case Number of cities Installed capacities (104 m3/d) High 203 1321.3 Base 192 1100.7 Low 179 903.8

未来投资预测 Future Investment Prediction Total Investment: 61.1 Billion RMB 总投资：611亿元 Small 15% Raw Water WTP 2.6% 24.0% Medium 16% Super Large 51% Large 18% Network 73.3% Investment destination 投资去向 Investment in 4 types of cities 四类城市投资比例

未来投资预测 Future Investment Prediction Annual per capita investment 各省年均人均投资 Total Investment 各省总投资 8

绩效系统技术路线 Methodology of Performance Benchmarking System Step1 Determination of Research Contents Experts’ Suggestion Indicator Screening and Definition Indicator Screening and Definition Methodology of Performance Benchmarking System Step2 Performance System Frame Case Study of Shenzhen Modificated Indicator and Questionnaire Five Cities Field Investigation Evaluation of Indicator Modification No Experts’ Suggestion Step3 Yes Other 5 Cities Field Investigation Data Analysis and Reacquirement No Data Verification? Data Verification? Experts’ Suggestion Yes Step4 System Establishment Result Analysis

研究成果之一 —— 供水企业绩效评价系统 Performance Benchmarking System for WS 研究成果之一 —— 供水企业绩效评价系统 Performance Benchmarking System for WS PI question air（单项指标调研表） Data sheet（单项指标数据表） Indicators（复合指标数据表） Data report（复合及单项指标数据报告） Data base（单项指标数据库） Validation（数据校核表） Confidence grades（可信度分级表）

• General Information 基本信息 • Financial Information 财务信息 研究成果之一 —— 供水企业绩效评价系统 Performance Benchmarking System for WS • General Information 基本信息 • Service Area 服务范围 • Staff 员工情况 • Water Service 供水服务 • Financial Information 财务信息 • Tariff Information 费用信息 • Customer Relations 顾客关系

研究成果之一 —— 供水企业绩效评价系统 Performance Benchmarking System for WS 研究成果之一 —— 供水企业绩效评价系统 Performance Benchmarking System for WS Coverage 供水普及率 Water Consumption & Production 供水生产及消耗 Non-revenue Water 产销差 Metering Practices 水表计量 Pipe Network Performance 管网性能 Cost & Staff 运营成本和人工成本 Quality of Service 服务质量 Billings & Collections 收入与水费回收 Financial Performance 财务绩效 Capital Investment 资产管理 Need of New Resource 设施利用

Average Operating cost coverage 研究成果之二 —— 供水企业绩效分析 Performance Analysis for WSE Operating Efficiency 运行效率 Average non revenue water 平均产销差率22.54% Average Mobilisation of Water Utilities 平均设施利用率66.58 % Service Quality 服务质量 Average Coverage of Water Supply 供水普及率 85.17% Average Population Served by one Household 每用户服务人口数 25.77 persons Average Pipe Breaks 平均爆管次数 1.92 breaks/km/year Operating Costs and Revenue 运营成本与收入 Average Operating cost coverage 收入成本比 1.24 Average collection duration 水费回收期 43 days Collection Ratio水费回收率 90.26%

研究成果之三 —— 绩效评价系统应用导则 Guideline for Performance Benchmarking System Preliminary application of the performance system Comprehensive assessment on performance benchmarking system Suggestions on the implementation of performance Benchmarking system Adjustment of indicators Benchmarking establishment System arrangement Current and long-term layout

关键问题识别 Identification of Key issues 地下水过度开采 Excessive Exploitation of Groundwater 关键问题识别 Identification of Key issues Exploitation rate开采强度 河北 Hebei：126％ 北京 Beijing：109％ 10 billion m3 地面沉降：Land Sinking 降落漏斗： Funnel-shaped sinking area 地面塌陷：Ground Subsidence 海水入侵：Invasion of Sea Water Problems

自备井问题 Private Wells 城市 City 邯郸 Handan 潍坊 Weifang 焦作 Jiaozuo 石家庄 Shijiazhuang 鞍山 Anshan 数量Number 326 123 250 502 958 PROBLOMS 地下水过度开采 Excessive exploitation of groundwater 缺乏水质监测管理 Water quality lack of testing 影响供水企业运营 Effect on water supply enterprises 节水意识淡薄 Little awareness of water-saving

水源污染 Pollution of Water Source 38.6％ 43.1％ IV&V > 20％ 30.8％ 40.6％

供水企业供需比高 High Ratio of Supply/Demand 60％城市： > 2.0 60% cities : > 2.0 This rate of utility utilization in 60% cities is dropping 6个调研城市供水设施使用率在逐年下降

产销差率高 Non-revenue Water 6 cities : > 20% Reasons 原因 --- loss in pipes 管网漏失 --- free for public use 公共用水不收费等

水价 water price Water Resources Price 水资源费 Tap Water Price 自来水费 7 cities : < 2.0 low Price Wasting water 0.1 2000-2003，Water Resources Price were remain unchanged in 80％ investigated cities 2000-2003， 80％的调研城市未对水资源费进行过调整

结论 Conclusions 北方地区的用水量已经保持在一个比较稳定的状态。 The water supply volume in northern regions has reached a stable stage. It will grows at a slower pace or even witness a decline in the coming several years. 北方地区供水能力闲置会造成比较大的资源和资金的浪费，而关闭自备井与否是影响未来投资额的一个重要因素。 The unused water supply facilities caused huge waste of resources, and shutting down the self-built wells is a key factor which will influence the future investment. 管网投资将会是未来投资的主要去向。 More and more investment will go to pipe network in the future. (To be continued)

结论 Conclusions 目前设计的这套供水企业绩效评价系统已经具备了中国初步应用的可能性，但是仍然存在部分指标有待修改及完善。 The designed performance benchmarking system for water utilities could be preliminarily applied in China. However, some indicators are also waiting for improvement. 绩效分析的结果显示：企业运行效率偏低，服务质量不高；仍然存在部分供水企业负债运营。 Performance analysis result shows: WSE has low operational efficiency and service quality and there are still some WSE in indebted operation. 关键问题：水源污染问题严重；地下水过度开采；水价偏低。 Key issues: water pollution is serious; groundwater is excessively exploited; tariff is low. (To be continued)

建议 Suggestions 科学预测需水量，避免供水规划脱离实际。 More scientific measures must be adopted to estimate water demand to avoid high prediction. 建议未来应加强自备井的管理，并适当关闭部分自备井。 In the future, the management of self-built water must be strengthened especially self-built wells, which trigger series of problems affecting the eco-environment, water quality and effective management; 建议今后应加大管网更新改造力度，改善用户端的出水水质。 Efforts should be strengthened on upgrade and replacement of pipe networks so as to improve the quality of water at the end of consumers. (To be continued)

建议 Suggestions 理顺政府与企业的关系。 Rationalizing the relationship between the government and enterprises. The initial step is to further transfer government functions. The second step is to improve decision-making mechanism. Third, it is also necessary to establish the external supervision system. 供水企业应提升企业管理水平。 WSE should promote their management level including improving operation efficiency, service quality and collection ratio of tariff, reducing cost and consummating statistic and management system.

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