金融海嘯後的全球財富重分配 2011 宏觀流年 Ted Hong, Ph.D. July 2011

經過上次的金融風暴, 對一位投資者來講, 賺大錢已經不是最大的誘因, 避免損失才是考量重點。風險控管變成投資的主軸。 前言摘要 經過上次的金融風暴, 對一位投資者來講, 賺大錢已經不是最大的誘因, 避免損失才是考量重點。風險控管變成投資的主軸。 投資者面臨的挑戰是如何控制風險，達到下一個景氣繁榮。 台灣有關當局以及銀行面對歐美需求降低、美國政府所可能採用的振興經濟新措施、中國硬著陸以及未來新興產業可能影響，準備好了嗎? 宏觀2011年全球發生的大事件 由茉莉花運動所引發的情勢, 人口金字塔理論被徹底顛覆了。而以網路號召群眾形成政治壓力的做法，不僅「遍地開花」, 也對開發中國家貪腐政權形成「星火燎原」之壓力。受北非及中東石油輸出國之影響，推升了全球油價及原物料價格上漲。 日本海嘯大地震造成福島核輻射污染，連帶引發全球產業供應斷鏈之危機，全球化零庫存概念受到挑戰。 現今 美國，股市在QE2結束末期及偏高油價影響下開始下跌，而通膨壓力又使得QE3難以為繼，經濟復甦放緩。 歐洲希臘信貸風暴2011不但沒有落幕, 負面影響不減反增，愛爾蘭、葡萄牙、西班牙相繼捲入風暴，影響世界金融體系甚鉅。 中國在新的一輪通漲、歐美需求降低、產能過剩所造成的壓力下, 也已面臨到硬著陸的嚴重挑戰。 現今全球經濟成長放緩成爲關注焦點, 而社群網絡媒體以及「樂活」的相關行業卻可能成為未來的新興產業。

OVERVIEW: 大綱 SESSION I：UPDATE (大起大落，2011全球大事件) Recent Event Update Jasmine Movement (茉莉花運動：全球油價推升及原物料價格上漲) Japan Fukushima nuclear crisis (日本福島核輻射污染：全球產業供應斷鏈危機) Global Economic Slowdown and the triangular relationship (全球經濟增長放緩) China’s potential hard-landing (中國硬著陸的挑戰) US recovery slowdown (美國景氣復甦減緩) Europe sovereign debt crisis (歐洲主權信貸風暴升高) SESSION II：THE BANK’S ROLE IN THE NEXT BOOM (後證券化之市場趨勢) Bank's Role (銀行未來的角色) Traditional lending (傳統借貸) Government sponsored lending (政府贊助融資) Online payment (網上付款) The Next Boom (未來的新興產業) Social media cyberspace (社群網絡媒體) LOHAS related industry (「樂活」相關行業) Real Estate (不動產不可缺席的角色) SESSION III：THE OPPORTUNITY LANDSCAPE (全球財富之重新分配) Think the unthinkable (美麗新世界) Role of IMF and World Bank (國際貨幣基金會及世界銀行的角色) The G2 in the G-20 First priority: Control risk (控制風險，直達下一個景氣繁榮) Real Estate bubble (不動產泡沫化) Commodity bubble (資產泡沫化) Internet bubble (網路泡沫化) Public health outbreak (公共衛生事件) [THIS SLIDE IS HIDDEN]

OVERVIEW: 大綱 SESSION I：UPDATE (大起大落，2011全球大事件) Recent Event Update Global Economic Slowdown and the triangular relationship (全球經濟增長放緩) SESSION II：THE BANK’S ROLE IN THE NEXT BOOM (後證券化之市場趨勢) Bank’s Role (銀行未來的角色) The Next Boom (未來的新興產業) SESSION III：THE OPPORTUNITY LANDSCAPE (全球財富之重新分配) Think the unthinkable (美麗新世界) First priority: Control risk (控制風險，直達下一個景氣繁榮) I will start with a quick 3-year historic lookup by major events. I’ll then compare the failed banks statistics with last 3 memorable recession period Y2K, 90’s and Great Depression era. Then we look how global markets have reacted or pro-acted by each market sector and geographic region. Through macro economic view, we will review all the majo market

Jasmine Movement (茉莉花運動：全球油價推升及 原物料價格上漲) SESSION I: 2011全球大事件 Recent Event Update Jasmine Movement (茉莉花運動：全球油價推升及 原物料價格上漲) Japan Fukushima nuclear crisis (日本福島核輻射污 染：全球產業供應斷鏈危機) Global Economic Slowdown and the triangular relationship (全球經濟增長放緩) US recovery slowdown (美國景氣復甦減緩) Europe sovereign debt crisis (歐洲主權信貸風暴升 高) China potential hard-landing (中國硬著陸的挑戰) I will start with a quick 3-year historic lookup by major events. I’ll then compare the failed banks statistics with last 3 memorable recession period Y2K, 90’s and Great Depression era. Then we look how global markets have reacted or pro-acted by each market sector and geographic region. Through macro economic view, we will review all the majo market

Arab uprisings Tunisia 茉莉花運動 人口金字塔理論 24.5 years 26.9 years Arab uprisings Tunisia Egypt Libya Bahrain Syria Yemen 15-64 years: 62.7% Median age: 24.5 years 15-64 years: 66.8% Median age: 36.9 years 36.9 years 44.8 years 15-64 years: 73.4% Median age: 36.9 years 15-64 years: 64% Median age: 44.8 years 6 6

24.0 years 茉莉花運動 人口金字塔理論 : China 7 15-64 years: 66.0% Median age: 24.0 years 7 7

35.5 years 茉莉花運動 人口金字塔理論 : China 8 15-64 years: 73.6% Median age: 23.8 years 15-64 years: 73.6% Median age: 35.5 years 35.5 years 8 8

日本福島核輻射污染 Economic Impact of Japan’s Fukushima nuclear crisis Industry Supply Chain 全球產業供應斷鏈危機 IT (Semiconductor, LED, & Consumer Electronics) Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Automotive Food & Beverage Contamination 食物污染 Radioactive Effect of Japanese Yen Short-term appreciation (repatriation effect) Long-term depreciation 9 9

International Stock Indices Dow Jones Industrial Average: DJI 6547 (March 9, 2009) 12393 London Index: FTSE 100 3512 (March 3, 2009) 5945 Australia Index: AORD 4659 3111 (March 2, 2009) Japan Index: N225 7055 (March 10, 2009) 9816 Hang Seng Index: HSI 11921 (March 2, 2009) 22398 Brazil Index: BVSP 36741 (March 9, 2009) DJ index closed at 9743 as of 7/6/2010, another 700 down from my quote 2 weeks ago. Taiwan Index: TWII 4637 (March 9, 2009) 8652 Shanghai: SSE CI (000001.SS) 1728 (Oct. 27, 2008) 2762 Russian Index: RTS.RS 498 (Jan 23, 2008) 1907 April 2008 – June 2011

Commodity & Energy Markets 2008Q2 - 2011Q2 Crude Oil Price in USD Gold Price in USD/oz Gold is the one that has strong performance to against inflation threaten. But even that went down at 1195 at 7/6/2010, 4% down from my quote 2 weeks ago. Oil is down as well. The Deflation fear is back. extension S&P 500 Index Corn Price in USD

Global Rates Watch Emerging market is the hope or isn’t it? 12

US Financial Market vs. Bank Failure 1934-2011 RTC Era 1989-1996 No sign of downtrend for the bank failure yet comparing with last 2 major recessions in the 30’s and 90’s. 157 failed Banks 2010 26 fails up to April 2011 Source: FDIC

US Real Estate Market Watch March_05 fade

US Bond Market: Treasury Curve Shift The current low interest environment is actually even lower than June, 2003 and last even longer. But the economy has not yet fully recovered yet. R.E. is still down. Source: Beyondbond

Outstanding Level of U.S. Debt Although the outstanding remains, the 99% of mortgage issuance in 2010 coming from agency mortgage. Source: SIFMA

Issuance of US Mortgage Debt 17

Global Economic Slowdown 跟著錢潮走-市場走向 The triangular relationship (全球經濟增長放緩) China’s potential hard-landing (中國硬著陸的挑戰) U.S. recovery slowdown (美國景氣復甦減緩) Europe sovereign debt crisis (歐洲主權信貸風暴升高) China Europe U.S. I will start with a quick 3-year historic lookup by major events. I’ll then compare the failed banks statistics with last 3 memorable recession period Y2K, 90’s and Great Depression era. Then we look how global markets have reacted or pro-acted by each market sector and geographic region. Through macro economic view, we will review all the majo market

SESSION II: The Bank’s Role in the Next Boom Traditional lending (傳統借貸) Government sponsored lending (政府贊助融資) Online payment (網上付款) Industries in The Next Boom (未來的新興產業) Cyberspace: Social media related industry (社群網絡媒體) Urbanization: LOHAS related industry (「樂活」相關行業) Demographic: Real Estate industry

The Next Boom: Social Media 社群網絡媒體 Let Social Media IPO Show Begin Market Cap: $7.8B IPOed May 19, 2011 $25B Filed June 2, 2011 Zynga is expected to raise up to $2 billion in an IPO that could value the company at $20 billion Groupon, which plans to raise $750 million, giving it a valuation of as much as $25 billion $20B Filed July1, 2011 Filling 1st Q of 2012 Estimate CV: $50B

Virtual vs. Traditional Enterprises Market Cap Employees 216 89,000 287,000 204 179 26,316 2,100,000 180 100 33,700 196,200 103 43 17,700 205,000 45 Total: 528B 166,716 2,798,200 532B Traditional: Similar cap, need to feed more Virtual: Less employees, produce more values Traditional Virtual

The Next Boom: Urbanization An ongoing trend for growing urbanized middle-class. Taiwan and HK obviously are ahead of China. China 1st tier cities are adopting those concepts very rapidly while 2nd tier are just realizing the ideas. It's however will affect democracy thought which is dangerous in its domestic politics. The business thought that surround those ideas are growing bigger and are along with the theme of cyberspace service industry because LOHAS communities like leveraging social media to communicate ideas and form the trend.

LOHAS (Lifestyles of Health and Sustainability) 樂活族 健康、可持續的生活方式 生活特質 環保 節能 自然、精緻 健康 Population: US 23% (50 million), Japan 29% (37 million) Market Size in US: $355 billion in consumer sales Green Technology certified green buildings, Energy Star appliances, etc. resource recovery and recycling Alternative Energy renewable power alternative Transportation like hybrids, electric vehicles, car sharing, etc. Natural Lifestyles natural home furnishings, apparel, etc. eco-tourism on excursions in nature Personal Health natural/organic food, personal care, supplements, etc.

樂活族遵循準則 (LOHAS) 堅持自然溫和的輕慢運動。 不抽煙，也盡量不吸二手煙 。 電器不使用時關閉電源以節約能源。 盡量選擇有機食品和健康蔬食，避免高鹽，高油，高糖。 減少製造垃圾，實行垃圾分類和回收。 親近自然，選擇“有機”旅行。 注重自我，終身學習，關懷他人，分享樂活。 積極參加公益活動 ，如社區義工，支教等。 支持社會慈善事業，進行舊物捐贈和捐款。 節約用水，將馬桶和水龍頭的流量關小，一水多用。 向家人，朋友推薦與環境友善的產品。 減少一次性筷子和紙張的使用，珍惜森林資源。 減少對手機的使用。 穿天然棉麻絲材質的服裝。

Real Estate (不動產不可缺席的角色) 2010 US Household Annual Expenditure Source: Beyondbond

2010 China and Taiwan Household Annual Expenditure China (Urban) United States National Statistics of Taiwan National Bureau of Statistics of China (China Statistical Yearbook) Taiwan

Real Estate (不動產不可缺席的角色) 2010 US Household Annual Expenditure 34.43% Housing 15.61% Transportation 12.99% Food 11.15% Insurance Pensions Virtual Growth Entertainment Education Telecom 10.45% Everything Else 6.37% Health care Entertainment 5.49% Apparel and services 3.52%

- Howard Marks, Oak Tree Investment 控制風險，直達下一個景氣繁榮 “The no. 1 job of a professional investor is not to make a lot of money, it’s to control risk.” - Howard Marks, Oak Tree Investment I will start with a quick 3-year historic lookup by major events. I’ll then compare the failed banks statistics with last 3 memorable recession period Y2K, 90’s and Great Depression era. Then we look how global markets have reacted or pro-acted by each market sector and geographic region. Through macro economic view, we will review all the majo market

SESSION III：Beyond the Horizon 美麗新世界 First priority: Control risk (控制風險，直達下一個景氣繁榮) Real Estate bubble (不動產泡沫化) Commodity bubble (資產泡沫化) Internet bubble (網路泡沫化) Public health outbreak (公共衛生事件) New Globalization Game The G2 in the G-20 Role of IMF and World Bank (國際貨幣基金會及世界銀行的角色) I will start with a quick 3-year historic lookup by major events. I’ll then compare the failed banks statistics with last 3 memorable recession period Y2K, 90’s and Great Depression era. Then we look how global markets have reacted or pro-acted by each market sector and geographic region. Through macro economic view, we will review all the majo market

Control Risk 避免風險 Demographics and Real Estate 人口统计学周期與房地產 面對人口老化及少子化 Aging Population Real Estate bubble 房地產泡沫: 人口统计学周期 人口增长的阶段，房价增长 人口老化并下降时，房价下跌 Commodity bubble (資產泡沫化) Internet bubble (網路泡沫化) MCI Enron

Control Risk 避免風險 Public Health Outbreaks 公共衛生事件 Mad cow disease 2003 SARS 2006 E. Coli outbreak 2008 中國毒奶粉事件 (Melamine三聚氰胺) 2009 H1N1 2011 臺灣飲料含毒塑化劑事件( DEHP塑化劑） [Need Year for each event] 1996 BSE (Mad cow disease) British outbreak December 2003 first BSE case reported in US

G2 in G20: Global GDP Distribution 2000 vs. 2010 32 32

Global Population vs. GDP 2010 in Cumulative % 33 33

The IMF and World Bank 國際貨幣基金會及世界銀行的角色 International Monetary Fund (IMF) & the World Bank were both founded at the UN Monetary and Financial Conference in 1944. 182 member countries Major Responses: U.S. Savings and loan crisis (1986-95) Japan banking crisis (1990-99) Asian Banking crisis (1998-99) U.S. subprime crisis (2007-present) European sovereign debt crisis (2008-present) http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2008/12/collyns.htm

投資不是奇蹟 我們喜歡什麼、討厭什麼， 其實自己清楚的很。 我們害怕的是，未知的未來； 期待的也是，夢幻的未來。 於是，用僅有的過去經驗，決定下一步。 然而，卻寄望每一步，都能出現驚喜。

For Additional Information contact Ted@BeyondBond.com

個人小傳 Dr. Hong has more than twenty years research and structuring experience in the U.S. mortgages and securitization areas. Dr. Hong has published intensive residential and commercial mortgage research papers. He and his core team has provided intensive mortgage research, investment advisory, risk management tools, customized fixed income valuation analytics and trading technology for major financial institutions. In addition, Dr. Hong has advised financial regulators in Taiwan and China for the last years in securitization area. Dr. Ted Hong is currently the president of Beyondbond, Inc. In the past 10 years, Dr. Hong has provided fixed income research, investment and risk management analytics as well as trading platform for major global banks, investment banks, mortgage lenders, large private equity and hedge funds, fixed income exchanges, and clearing houses. Prior to that, Dr. Hong was a director at Nomura Securities International and oversaw analytics and securitization business in the mortgage areas. He and his core team members were instrumental in developing the commercial mortgage-backed securities industry and “jump-started the national real estate market” in the 1990’s according to Fortune Magazine. Dr. Hong has been repeatedly invited by regulators and financial institutions from Taiwan and China such as People’s Bank of China, Peking University, Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC), Central Bank of China, GreTai Securities Market, National Taiwan University, Asia Money, and Taiwan Academy of Banking and Finance (TABF) to give numerous speeches with respect to the securitization markets. Dr. Hong is currently the senior advisor and consultant for regulators in Taiwan such as FSC, TABF, and GreTai.. Dr. Hong received his Ph.D. in Economics from University of California at San Diego. His specialized research topic was the non-stationary volatility modeling in the time series area. Dr. Hong had several research articles jointly published with Dr. Robert Engle, the 2003 Nobel Laureate in Economics. His research piece such as “An Options Approach to Commercial Mortgages and CMBS Evaluation and Risk Analysis” has been repeatedly quoted and published. 洪哲雄博士為 Beyondbond 公司執行長。具有超過二十年有關資產證券化的發行、交易以及風險控管之實務經驗。 Beyondbond 為洪博士於1999 與野村證券合作創立之財務科技投資顧問公司。洪博士曾任職於日本野村證券，美國花旗銀行，及帝 國儲貸等機構。任職野村期間，洪博士專責住宅抵押借款和商業不動產證券化的硏究及發行，其商業不動產部門於九○年期間，穩居美國不動產證券化之龍頭，並為財星雜誌譽為CMBS 之開創先驅。野村目前為Beyondbond 的投資者和事業夥伴。 洪博士以其在財工及風控的市場實戰經驗﹐致力開發固定收益資產證券即時交易及風控平台。僅以一家全球性的投資銀行券商為例﹐目前每日在其平台處理交易之金額即超過兩佰億美元。其客戶層包括從投行、銀行、私募基金、對沖基金到政府機 構如 Nomura, HSBC, BlackStone, LoneStar, Brevan Howard, GinnieMae, 及DTCC。 近年來﹐從全球金融證券化市場的蓬勃發展到次貸金融危機，由於洪博士成功的預測金融危機，使其不斷受到政府及民間團體邀約，包括中國人行、北京大學、台灣大學、台灣央行、美國國會議員、美國保險學會等機構，為金融同業有關證券化議題與國際經濟現勢做不同層面之演講，並為台灣研訓院、金管會、聯徵、央行及美國國會議員、銀行存保機構、黑石私募提供政策面之諮詢顧問。 洪博士為加州大學聖地牙哥分校經濟系博士，其論文指導教授羅伯.恩格爾(Robert Engle) 為2003 年之諾貝爾經濟學領域得主，恩格爾教授並被譽為美國最有商業影響力的財經大師。師生二人曾多次相皆訪問亞洲演講並拜會各國首長。兩人有多篇共同著作，其研究成果常被固定收益資產證券專書出版。例如「商業抵押貸款和不動產證券化之評估和風險分析」專文即被一再反復引用及出版。