CDM市场概况 The CDM market 中国CDM能力建设项目培训讲义 Training Material Building Capacity for the CDM in China 2018/12/4

需求与供给：Demand and supply 2018/12/4

京都议定书的承诺：Kyoto Protocol Commitments 2018/12/4

CER需求与供给：CER demand and supply 预测结果：Projections: 目前CDM的供给为每年150百万吨二氧化碳当量 Present CDM supply estimated to 150 mill. tonnes CO2e per year 需求为每年350-500百万吨二氧化碳当量 Demand with present commitments 350-500 mill. tonnes CO2e per year 共需要2000-4000个CDM项目 Demand equals 2000-4000 CDM projects! Source: World Bank, IEA, IETA 2018/12/4

热空气：Hot air 不是由于京都议定书承诺导致的减排 2010 1990 Baseline Kyoto target Country X Assigned Amount Units (AAU) Kyoto target Country X 2010 For example Russia: due to economic recession, production in Russia has declined, and use of energy has also declined. Another example, Germany: due to earlier East and West Germany merging into today’s Germany, the two countries emission reduction obligations nilled out each other, Source: Various 2018/12/4

项目类型依东道国分类：Project types by host country Source: Point Carbon 2018/12/4

项目类型依行业分类：Project types by sector Source: Point Carbon 2018/12/4

附件I国家：Annex I country Source: Point Carbon 2018/12/4

CERs 的供给：Supply of CERs Source: Point Carbon 2018/12/4

目前CERs的主要买方 Current Buyers of CERs (1) Multilateral Funds / Government Funds Prototype Carbon Fund (US$ 180 million) Community Development Carbon Fund (US$ 100 million) World Bank Bio-Carbon Fund (US$ 100 million) Government Funds Dutch Government C-ERUPT Program Finnish CDM/JI Pilot Program (€ 20 million) Sweden International Climate Investment Program – CDM Austria JI/CDM Procurement Program Italian CDM fund Through Commercial/Development Banks Rabo Bank (Dutch Government) Japanese Bank of International Cooperation (Japan CDM Fund - 4 billion yen) Development Bank of Japan (Japan CDM Fund - 3 billion yen German KfW Bank group (10 million €) 2018/12/4

目前CERs的主要买方 Current Buyers of CERs (2) Through Multilateral Institutions World Bank (The Netherlands Clean Development Facility - € 70 million) IFC (IFC-Netherlands Carbon Facility - € 44 million) Through Bilateral Transactions (signed MOUs) Canadian Government with Colombia and Chile Dutch Government with Bolivia, Colombia, Uruguay and Ecuador Danish CDM Portfolio - Honduras, Malaysia EU-ETS businesses Bilateral agreements to meet EUETS commitments CER Brokers Evolution Markets, CO2e.com, Natsource, Ecosecurities 2018/12/4

目前CERs的价格：Current price of CERs PCF US$3.0-3.5 premium of US$0.5 per ton of CO2e for projects with developmental components (e.g. Colombia Wind Farm) CERUPT renewable energy – €5.5 biomass energy - €4.4 energy efficiency - €4.4 fuel switch and methane - €3.3 average price - €4.73 Finnish Government small-scale - €2.47-3.2 2018/12/4

案例研究项目的CER价值 CER value of case study projects 类型 Type CER量/年 CERs/Y 预期CER价值 Assumed CER Value CER收益/年 CER Revenue/y 侯马 HouMa EE 137,000 5 US$/t 685,000 US$ 辉腾西勒风电 HuitengxileWind Farm RE 51,430 257,150 US$ 安定LFG Anding LFG Recovery LFG 40,000 200,000 US$ 淮南CMM Huainan CMM CMM 178,000 890,000 US$ 2018/12/4

CDM交易成本：CDM transaction cost 项目实施前阶段 Pre-operational Phase 信息收集成本 Search Costs 协商成本 Negotiation Costs 审定成本 Validation Costs 注册成本 Registration Costs 项目实施阶段 Operational Phase 监测成本 Monitoring Costs 认证成本 Certification Costs 2018/12/4

CDM交易成本：CDM transaction costs 项目前期准备成本 项目运行成本 成本因经验与项目数量累积而降低 Prices decrease as experience and projects are aggregated Source: Various 2018/12/4