经济转型中的我国就业市场：挑战及对策 曾湘泉 Zeng Xiangquan 2016-4-26 Chinese Job Market in Economic Transition : Challenges and Countermeasures 曾湘泉 Zeng Xiangquan 2016-4-26 曾湘泉 1 1

中国劳动学会副会长、劳动科学教育分会会长、中国人力资源开发研究会副会长 中国人民大学中国就业研究所所长、教授 Professor and the Director of the China Institute for Employment Research at Renmin University of China 中国劳动学会副会长、劳动科学教育分会会长、中国人力资源开发研究会副会长 Vice-president of the China Association for Labor Studies, Director of its Labor Science Education Branch and Vice-president of the Chinese Human Resource Development Association. 美国富布莱特项目高级访问学者、德国劳动研究所研究员 Fulbright Visiting Scholar of the US, Research fellow of German Labor Institute 国家教育部“长江学者”特聘教授 The Yangtze River Scholar Distinguished Professor 2003年3月28日在中央政治局第三次集体学习中，应邀就“世界就业趋势及我国的就业政策研究”讲解 On March 28, 2003, he was invited to brief on “Global Employment Trend and Employment Options of China” for the CPC Political Bureau’s study course. 曾湘泉

大 纲 就业形势的总体判断 Current Situation 就业中存在的突出问题 Key issues in Employment 1 就业中存在的突出问题 Key issues in Employment 2 对策及建议 Countermeasures and Suggestions 3 曾湘泉 3

CIER指数简介： introduction of the CIER index CIER Index is the proportion of job vacancies to job seekers in the labor market, which was released to the public for the first time by China Institute of Employment Research during “2011 seminar for analysis and prospect of labor market in China” in January 15th, 2011. 优势为：Strengths: 1.发布及时，每期发布早于政府部门； Timely publication, prior to government department publication 2.反应灵敏； Highly sensitive 3.宏观解释度高，关注度高。2016-3《哈佛商业评论》中文版刊登了CIER指数报告。 High level of macro-interpretation. CIER Index report was published in The Harvard Business Review (Chinese). Vol.3, 2016. 曾湘泉

CIER指数简介： introduction of the CIER index CIER Index = number of job vacancies/number of job applicants CIER指数越大，表示一定空缺岗位的需求越高，劳动力市场的景气程度提高。CIER指数的变动受招聘人数（需求）和求职人数（供给）两方面因素的影响。 A larger CIER Index indicates that there are more job vacancies for competitors and more activity in the labor market. The changes of the CIER Index are affected by both the number of job vacancies (demand) and job seekers(supply). 曾湘泉

一、总体判断(1)—就业市场总量趋冷，结构矛盾突出 Current Situation (1)- The Job Market Overall Was Rather Dormant and Structural Problem Stands Out 　　2015年第四季度CIER指数从三季度的1.96小幅回升至2.09，就业市场继续保持供不应求格局。这源于四季度比三季度招聘需求有所回升，求职申请有 所下降所致。如下图所示： 　　In 2015, the CIER Index slightly rose from 1.96 in the third quarter to 2.09 in the fourth quarter, indicating that there were still more demand in the labor market, which was caused by the rising recruitment demand and the declining number of applicants, as shown below: CIER指数小于1时，说明就业市场竞争趋于激烈，就业市场景气程度低，就业信心偏低。 When CIER Index <1, it indicates more competition in the labor market, worse labor market situation and lower employment confidence. 曾湘泉

利用计量经济模型，剔除主要由于人口结构变迁所造成的CIER指数呈现的长期上升趋势，以及由于求职申请人数明显的季节性变化而造成的CIER指数季节性变化特征后，2015年第一季度至第四季度，CIER指数周期性成分持续下降,就业市场景气程度不容乐观。如下图所示： 　Using econometrical modeling, it was found that after removing the long term upward trend of the CIER Index caused by the changes of population structure, and the seasonal fluctuation of the CIER Index caused by the seasonal change of job applications, the periodic component of the index continued to decline throughout 2015, indicating that the employment situation is not optimistic (fig. below). 曾湘泉

一、总体判断(2)—存在诸多不确定因素 Current Situation (2)- Unpredictable Factors 国内宏观经济形势与国际经济动向中仍然存在诸多不确定因素 There are still various unpredictable factors in the domestic macroeconomic situation and the international economy trends. 1.宏观经济波动　　Macroeconomic Fluctuation 2015年GDP同比增幅为6.9%，消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨1.4%，同时工业品出产价格指数（PPI）呈现“负增长”，三月份同比下降5.9%。 The GDP was increased by 6.9% from the previous year in 2015, and CPI also increased by 1.4%. Meanwhile the PPI was decreased by 5.9% 通缩压力与实体经济低迷使经济处于“弱复苏”状态，PPI持续走低，影响制造业生产的积极性，使得劳动力的需求下降。 The economy still stays in a “weak recovery” state due to the deflation pressure and the doldrums of the real economy. PPI continued to decline, discouraging the activity of production in manufacturing and decreasing the demand for labor. 曾湘泉

一、总体判断(2)—存在诸多不确定因素 Overall Judgment(2)- Uncertain Factors 2.产业升级持续推进　　Industry Upgrade 产业升级进入关键期，资本深化与技术深化持续推进。劳动力供给减少带来劳动力市场供求关系及其价格（工资）的变化，对资本与劳动替代带来影响。 Industrial upgrading is entering a critical phase as the deepening of capital and technology continue to push forward. The deduction of labor supply leads to the changes in supply-demand relations and the price of labor force (wage), which also influence the substitution between capital and labor. 另一方面产业升级的持续推进对我国当前劳动力结构提出了挑战。企业对高技能工人需求量的增大对我国当前的劳动力的质量提出了更高的要求。 On the other hand, the continuous advancement of the industrial upgrading has presented a challenge to our country's current labor structure. The increase of the demand for high skilled workers has put forward higher requirements for the quality of the labor force . 3.欧美等国开始实施“再工业化”　　Reindustrialization in Europe and America 欧美等国实施的“再工业化”战略，可能弱化我国长期以来依靠低廉的劳动力成本所累积的制造业的竞争优势，将会造成我国低技术产品的出口压力。最终可能会引致传统制造业用工量的大幅度缩减。 The reindustrialization strategy may weaken the competitive advantage in manufacturing which relies on the long time accumulation of cheap labor costs, and bring pressures to the export of low technical level products. Eventually it may lead to a drastic reduction of labor demand in traditional manufacturing industry.. 曾湘泉

大 纲 就业形势的总体判断 Overall Judgment of Employment Situation 就业中存在的突出问题 1 就业中存在的突出问题 Prominent Problems in Employment 2 对策及建议 Countermeasures and Suggestions 3 曾湘泉 10

Supply pressure is reducing 二、突出问题（1）—劳动力供给压力渐缓，但隐性失业公开化开始显现 Prominent Problems(1)-Supply Pressure is Reducing While the Hidden Unemployment Emerges 2006年起，16-24岁的青年劳动力参与率开始下降； Since 2006, the labor force participation rate of youth from 16 to 24 began to decline; 2012年起，劳动年龄人口开始下降； Since 2012, the working-age population began to decline; 2015年起，我国的农村剩余劳动力接近0。 （据我们以技术进步与农村土地流转制度保持不变为前提的测算） Since 2015, the number of surplus in rural labor force in China approaches 0. (our calculation is on condition that technical change and rural land circulation system remain unchanged) 周期性波动，若我国GDP增长率继续下降，劳动需求下降，就业量就会出现萎缩； Periodic fluctuations: if the GDP continues to decrease, the demand of labor force will decrease, and the amount of employment will reduce. 供给侧改革的压力：去产能、去库存、去杠杆、降成本和补短板。经济增长压力增大，隐形失业公开化显现。 Pressures from the reform of the supply side: de-capacity, de-stocking, de-leverage, cost-reduction and short board filling. With higher pressure on economic growth, the hidden unemployment is emerging. 劳动力供给压力减缓 Supply pressure is reducing 经济增长引致就业需求，仍有就业总量担忧 Economic Growth lead to labor demand and anxiety about the employment amount 曾湘泉

prominent ability structure contradiction 二、突出问题（2）—“双结构”矛盾加剧，解决难度加大 Prominent Problems(2)- “Dual-Structural” Contradiction Are Sharpening 高等教育水平与大学生低就业能力之间的矛盾 The contradiction between collage graduates’ high education level and low employment ability 160万年轻工程师中只有10%能满足跨国公司的实用技能与语言技能的要求 Only 10% in 1.6 million young engineers can meet the multinational companies’ requirements of practical and language skills. 农民工的素质结构难以适应产业升级的需求 Migrant workers’ quality structure cannot fit the requirements of industrial upgrading 我国目前有技术工人约7000万人，高级工比例仅为5% 农民工中，初中文化占61.1%；51.1%的未接受过技能培训 China has about 70 million skilled workers, while the rate of senior workers is 5%. 61.1% of the migrant workers have junior high school degree of education; and 51.1% of them never undertook skill training. 能力结构矛盾突出 prominent ability structure contradiction 曾湘泉

行业需求差异巨大 Extreme variation in demands between industries 曾湘泉

不同企业规模增长完全不同 Different speed of growth in enterprises with different scales 曾湘泉

Mismatching between the ability and position 二、突出问题（3）—就业质量偏低的现状并未明显改善 Prominent Problems(3)-The Situation That The Quality Of Employment Is Low Has Not Been Improved 就业稳定性差 Lack of stability 收入低 Low income 能力职位的不匹配 Mismatching between the ability and position 我国城镇新增就业的40%属于就业稳定性较差的灵活就业，并且大学毕业生参与非正规就业的比重逐年上升 40% of the newly increased employment in urban areas is flexible employment which lacks stability, and the rate of college graduates joining in flexible employment is increasing year after year. 中职毕业生就业质量调查发现，月工资2550元，换算成小时报酬大体是11元（每周工作58小时） The employment quality survey of vocational school graduates shows that the average monthly wage is 2550 Yuan, which is about 11 Yuan per hour (weekly working hour of 58). 约有 21%的本科毕业生属于过度教育,硕士和博士毕业生达到36%和42%，行政机关和事业单位的过度教育比例总体高于企业单位；国有或国有控股企业又高于外资企业和私营企业。 About 21% of the collage graduates, 36% of workers with master degrees and 42% of workers with doctor's degrees are overeducated. In administrative agencies and public institutions, the over-education rate is higher than enterprises, and the over-education rate is higher in state-owned or state holding enterprises than in foreign-funded and private enterprises. 曾湘泉

大 纲 就业形势的总体判断 Overall Judgment of Employment Situation 就业中存在的突出问题 1 就业中存在的突出问题 Prominent Problems in Employment 2 对策及建议 Countermeasures and Suggestions 3 曾湘泉 16

三、对策和建议（1）—旨在提高劳动力市场匹配效率的就业促进政策 Countermeasures and Suggestions(1)- Employment Promotion Policy Aimed At Promoting Matching Efficiency In Labor Market 建立全国性的就业信息平台 Build National Employment Information Platform 降低摩擦性失业与改善就业的区域性失衡的有效突破口；解决中央与各地的就业机构，就业信息分割与沟通不到位 To reduce the frictional unemployment and improve the regional employment imbalance; to solve the segmentation problem of the employment information and incomplete communication between central and local employment agencies. 借鉴：美国的“全美高校与雇主协会” 日本的“政府主导模式” America “national association of colleges and employers” Japan “government-dominant model” 曾湘泉

三、对策和建议（1）—旨在提高劳动力市场匹配效率的就业促进政策 Countermeasures and Suggestions(1)- Employment Promotion Policy for Higher Matching Efficiency 劳动力市场基础数据建设与信息公开 Build basic data on labor market and information openness 着手统计调查劳动力市场职位空缺的数据 借鉴美国的DOT（Dictionary of Occupational Titles）出版我国的《职业名称大词典》 公开劳动力市场的基础指标，包括我国的城镇的调查失业率和分专业的高校毕业生招生数量与毕业生数量等 Get down to collecting job vacancy data Take American DOT as an example to establish our own “Dictionary of Occupational Titles” Release basic labor market indices, including surveyed urban unemployment rate, the number of college enrollment and graduates by major. 曾湘泉

三、对策和建议（1）—旨在提高劳动力市场匹配效率的就业促进政策 Countermeasures and Suggestions(1)- Employment Promotion Policy Aimed At Promoting Matching Efficient In Labor Market 专业化的就业服务与职业生涯规划 Provide professional guidance for career development 高校中配备专业化的职业咨询教师；建议在国务院专业学位目录中尽快增设职业指导专业学位，培养专业化的就业服务与职业规划人才队伍 Equip high school with professional career counseling teachers; add occupational guidance as a major in Sate Council’s official catalogue, so as to train individuals who can provide professional guidance for career development. . 曾湘泉

三、对策和建议（2）—旨在提升就业能力的供给性就业促进政策 Countermeasures and Suggestions(2)- Employment Promotion Policy Aimed At Promoting Employment Ability 重点解决劳动者就业能力偏低的问题——即缺乏价值创造的能力 Focus on solving the problem of low employment ability among workers -- the lack of value creation ability 推进高等教育体制的改革与优化人才培养方式 Promote the reform of higher education system and optimize the mode of talent cultivation 政策导向上把重视教育质量提高与调整规模放到同等重要的地位上去； In policy orientation, value the quality improvement of education as important as scale adjustment. 在基础教育中将认知技能的培养与非认知能力的开发相结合，培养学生就业、创业和进行职业转换的能力； In primary education, combine the development of cognitive skill with non-cognition abilities, train students to obtain employment, entrepreneurship and the ability to carry out vocational transformation. 在高校专业设置、人员任免等环节中减少行政干预，回归大学的自主选择。减少“三本”招生规模，大力发展、贴近市场的职业教育考虑减少一部分教学质量不高，就业率较差的“三本”高校招生数量，将其转为职业教育和技师学院教育系列； Reduce administrative intervention in colleges’ major setup and staff appointment and dismissal, give the right to make independent choices back to the colleges. Reduce the enrollment of third-batch students and develop the vocational education. 增加对职业教育的投入。国际上的测算，职业教育的经费一般是普通高中教育的三倍左右。 Increase input in vocational education. Measurements by international norms, the expenditure on vocational education is three time than the general high school education. 目前重点：完善公共培训机制，关注培训需求，提高培训效果。 Current measures: complete public training system, value training needs, improve training effect. 曾湘泉

三、对策和建议（3）——旨在开发就业吸纳潜力的需求性就业促进政策 Countermeasures and Suggestions(3)- employment promotion policy aimed at developing potential employment absorption 重点扶持创业者与中小企业的成长，充分发挥他们吸纳就业的能力，改善其从业者就业质量。 Support the growth of entrepreneurs and medium and small-sized enterprises, release their full ability to obtain employment, improve the quality of their practitioners’ employment. 措施包括减税，为其提供低成本、便捷的融资渠道，简化行政审批手续，并逐步进行户籍制度改革，增加中小企业对人才的吸引力。 Measures include tax reduction, provide low costs and convenient financing channels; simplify administrative examination and approval procedures and gradually reform the household registration system, increase attractiveness of the medium and small-sized enterprises. 保持经济增长，提高经济增长就业弹性。现代服务业与传统服务业并行发展。 Keep economic growth, improve the employment elasticity. Develop modern and traditional service industries at the same time. 曾湘泉

谢 谢 ！ Thank you! 中国就业研究所： http://www.cier.org.cn China Institute for Employment Research 曾湘泉 22