中国年度 生产法和收入法 GDP 核算 China ’ s Annual GDP Account by Production and Income Approaches 张冬佑 国家统计局 国民经济核算司 2010 年 3 月 16 日 Zhang Dongyou Department of National.

Presentation on theme: "中国年度 生产法和收入法 GDP 核算 China ’ s Annual GDP Account by Production and Income Approaches 张冬佑 国家统计局 国民经济核算司 2010 年 3 月 16 日 Zhang Dongyou Department of National."— Presentation transcript:

1 中国年度 生产法和收入法 GDP 核算 China ’ s Annual GDP Account by Production and Income Approaches 张冬佑 国家统计局 国民经济核算司 2010 年 3 月 16 日 Zhang Dongyou Department of National Account, NBS 16th March, 2010

2 主要内容 Main Contents 一、产业部门分类 Classification of Industrial Sectors 二、资料来源 Data Source 三、行业增加值核算的具体推算方法 Specific Estimation Method of Industrial Value-added 四、近期所做的主要改进 major improvements to be made 五、面临的挑战 Challenges

3 一、产业部门分类 Classification of industrial sectors  第一级分类直接采用国家统计局 2003 年制定的《三次产 业划分规定》，但在第三产业中剔除国际组织部分。 The first level classification directly applies the “Regulation on Classification of Three Sectors ”promulgated by NBS in 2003, but eliminating the international part in the third sector.  第二级分类基本上采用新国民经济行业分类中的门类。 The second level classification basically applies the class categories in the new Classification of National Economic Industries.

4 产业部门分类 Classification of industrial sectors  第三级分类基本上采用新国民经济行业分类中的大类，房地产业 分到中类行业，并增加了居民自有住房服务业。 The third level classification basically applies the section in the new Classification of National Economic Industries, putting real estate sector in group sectors and adding resident self-owned housing service.  第四级分类和第三级分类基本一致，同时根据多年来 GDP 核算数 据的实际需求情况，并参照其他国家的分类情况，对采矿业、制 造业、电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业进行了细化 The fourth level classification and third level classification are basically consistent, and at the same time, specifying the mining, manufacturing, and the production and supply of electricity, gas and water by referring to the classification practice of other countries.

5  年度 GDP 核算，按 94 个行业。 Annual GDP account, by 94 sectors.  季度 GDP 核算，按 14 个行业。 Quarterly GDP account, by 14 sectors. 一、产业部门分类（续） C lassification of industrial sectors (cont.)

6 二、资料来源 Data source  国家统计调查数据 : 普查数据，全面调查数据，抽样调查数据； National statistical survey data: census data, comprehensive survey data, sample survey data;  部门财务数据：主要指 2008 年建立的 18 个部门服务业财务状况报 表； Financial data of administrative department: mainly refers to the financial statements of 18 service sectors established in 2008;  部门行政记录：财政数据，税务数据，中国人民银行、保监会、 证监会数据，工商局数据，民政部数据等。 Administrative record of the sectors: financial data, tax data, data of People's Bank of China, Insurance Regulatory Committee and Securities Regulatory Committee, of Industrial and Commercial Administration, and of the Ministry of Civil Affairs.

7 三、行业增加值核算的具体推算方法 Specific estimation method of industrial value-added account  生产法 Production approach: 4 个行业：农业、林业、畜牧业、渔业 Four industries: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishing  生产法和收入法混合 combination of production approach and income approach ： 工业中的 39 个行业 39 industrial industries  收入法 Income approach: 其余 51 个行业 other 51 industries

8 三、行业增加值核算的具体推算方法 Specific estimation method of industrial value-added account 季度 GDP Quarterly GDP  现价核算 Current price account 增加值率法：增加值＝总产出 × 增加值率 主要指标外推法：增加值＝上年同期增加值 × 相关指标速度 Method of value-added rate: value-added=total output ×value- added rate Extrapolation method of major indicators: value-added= value- added of the same period of last year × the growth rate of relevant indicators  不变价核算 Constant price account 价格指数缩减和物量外推 Price index deflation and volume extrapolation

9 三、行业增加值核算的具体推算方法 ( 续 ) Specific estimation method of industrial value- added account (cont.) 年度核算 Annual Account （一）直接计算法 Direct calculation method  利用基础资料直接计算该行业的总产出和增加值。 Directly calculating the total output and value-added by basic material.  在农业、工业、铁路运输业、邮政业、金融业、社会福利业 等 51 个行业采用直接计算法，占 94 个行业的 55 ％，占 GDP 的 63 ％。 Applying direct calculation method in the 51 sectors including agriculture, industry, railway transportation, post service, finance, and social welfare, taking 55% in the 94 sectors and 63% in GDP.

10 三、行业增加值核算的具体推算方法 ( 续 ) Specific estimation method of industrial value- added account (cont.) （二）增加值外扩法 The method of value-added extrapolation  首先利用基础资料计算增加值，然后利用基准年度（普查年度）基 础资料计算的增加值占该行业增加值的比重进行外扩，得到该行业 的增加值。 First of all, the basic data is used to calculate value-added, and then the ratio of value-added get from the basic data of basic year (census year) to the value-added of the whole sector is applied to extrapolate to get the value-added of the sector.  在建筑业、批发零售业、住宿餐饮业等 31 个行业采用增加值外扩法， 占 94 个行业的 33 ％，占 GDP 的 33 ％ The value-added extrapolation method is applied in 31 sectors including architecture, retail and wholesale, and accommodation and catering.

11 三、行业增加值核算的具体推算方法 ( 续 ) Specific estimation method of industrial value- added account (cont.) （三）相关指标推算法 Estimation of relevant indicators  以基准年度（普查年度）总产出或增加值为基础，利用能够 反映行业发展的一些指标的发展速度，做为总产出或增加值 的发展速度，进行外推，得到该行业增加值。 Taking the total output and value-added of basic year (census year) as the basis, and applying the growth rate of the indicators reflecting the development of the industries as the growth rate of total output and value-added, to extrapolate and get the value-added of the industry.  仓储业、计算机服务业、居民服务业等 11 个行业采用相关指 标推算法，占 94 个行业的 12 ％，占 GDP 的 4 ％ The estimation method of relevant indicators is applied in the 11 sectors including storage, computer service and resident service, taking 12% in the 94 sectors and 4% in GDP.

12 四、近期所做的主要改进 Improvements to be made （一）个体经营户增加值核算方法发生变化 Changes have been taken place in the account method of the value- added of self-employed  个体经营户增加值根据税收资料和清查户数间接推算。 Indirect Estimation is made to the value-added of self-employed according to the tax data and the number of individual business.  基本方法是：首先计算每个行业的户均税收额，然后利用各行业普查户数 乘以户均税收额得到每个行业的税收收入，再除以这个行业的规定税率得 到总产出，最后利用相关行业小规模企业的增加值率计算得到增加值。 Basic method: First, the average individual business tax revenue of each sector is calculated, and then the tax revenue of each industry is get by the equation of number of census households multiplied by average individual business tax revenue, and after that the total output is get by being divided by the regulated tax rate, and at last, the value-added is calculated by applying the value-added rate of small-scaled enterprises of relevant industries.

13 四、近期所做的主要改进（续） Improvements to be made (cont.) （二）改进金融业总产出的计算方法 Optimizing the calculation method of the total financial output  间接计算的银行中介服务产出采用了 2008 年联合国 SNA 推荐的参 考利率法，即间接计算的银行中介服务产出等于银行从事存款活 动获得的间接收入加上从事贷款活动获得的间接收入。 The reference interest rate recommended by UN SNA in 2008 is applied to FISIM ， e.g FISIM is equal to indirect income from deposit activity plus indirect income from lending activity.  银行业总产出和证券业总产出不再包含投资收益。 The total output of banking Industry and security Industry no longer include invest income.

14 四、近期所做的主要改进（续） Improvements to be made (cont.) （三）完善证券交易印花税的处理方法 Optimizing the treatment to the stamp tax of stock exchange  根据 GDP 核算原则，仅将机构缴纳的证券交易印花税 作为证券业的生产税处理，个人从事证券买卖活动缴 纳的证券交易印花税不属于证券业的生产税。 According to the GDP account principle, only the stamp tax in stock exchange handed by institutions is treated as production tax, and the stamp tax in stock exchange handed by individuals involved does not belong to the production tax of security sector.

15 四、近期所做的主要改进（续） Improvements to be made (cont.) （五）改进了部分行业不变价增加值核算方法 The account method to the value-added of constant price of certain sectors is improved  金融业 Finance -- 银行业 : 采用价格指数缩减法，利用存贷款利率和同业拆借利率构建银行 业缩减指数； Banking: the deflator is established by price index deflation method and by applying the deposit and loan interest rate and inter-bank rate; -- 证券业：利用股票成交量的发展速度外推计算； Securities: volume extrapolating by applying the growth rate of stock exchange. -- 保险业：采用物量外推与价格指数缩减相结合的方法； Insurance: applying the combination method of volume extrapolation and price index deflation. -- 其他金融业：利用银行业缩减指数缩减现价增加值获得。 Other financial sectors: gained by applying the banking deflation index to deflate the value-added of current price.

16 四、近期所做的主要改进（续） Improvements to be made (cont.)  居民自有住房服务 Owner occupied dwelling service 居民自有住房服务不变价增加值以居民住房面积作为 物量指标，采用物量外推法计算。 The value-added of constant price of Owner occupied dwelling service takes the resident living area as volume index and applies the volume extrapolation method to calculate.

17 四、近期所做的主要改进（续） Improvements to be made (cont.)  批发业不变价核算 Account of wholesale trade at constant price 对于从事批发活动的部分利用工业品出厂价格指数和原材料燃 料动力价格指数简单平均进行缩减，对于与关税有关的部分参 考进口价格指数进行缩减。 To those engaged in wholesale activities, the simple average of the cost price of industrial product and the dynamics price index of raw material and fuel is used to extrapolate, and to those related with the customs are extrapolated by referring to the export price index.

18 四、近期所做的主要改进（续） Improvements to be made (cont.)  教育、卫生等非市场活动的不变价增加值核算 Accounting the value-added of the non-market activities at constant price including education and health 根据不同的活动内容，利用相关指标采用物量外推和价格指数 相结合的方法核算。 According to different activity contents, the combination method of physical extrapolation and price index is applied to account.

19 五、面临的挑战 Challenges  GDP 核算的行业分类进一步细化 Further specifying industrial classification of GDP Account  充分利用各部门行政记录，全方位提高数据质量 Fully utilizing the administrative record of various sectors, and comprehensively raising data quality  如何发挥投入产出核算的框架作用 How to play the framework role of input and output account  如何完善不变价核算方法 How to optimize the method of constant price account

20 谢谢！ Thank you all!