Lecture 1 Experiments, Models, & Probabilities Last Time - None Probability & Stochastic Processes Yates & Goodman (2nd Edition) NTUEE SCC_02_2008 1- 1.

Presentation on theme: "Lecture 1 Experiments, Models, & Probabilities Last Time - None Probability & Stochastic Processes Yates & Goodman (2nd Edition) NTUEE SCC_02_2008 1- 1."— Presentation transcript:

1 Lecture 1 Experiments, Models, & Probabilities Last Time - None Probability & Stochastic Processes Yates & Goodman (2nd Edition) NTUEE SCC_02_2008 1- 1

2 1- 2 Lecture 1: Getting Started This Week Motivation and Course Overview Set Theory Review Applying Set Theory to Probability Probability Axioms Some Consequences of the Axioms Reading Assignment: Sections 1.1-1.4

3 1- 3 Lecture 1: Getting Started Next Week Some Consequences of the Axioms Conditional Probability Independence Sequential Experiments Reading Assignment: Sections 1.4-1.7

4 What have you known about prob. and stats.? 40% of raining  meaning? By bus or by walk? By bus: 10 mins to school with prob. 0.9, 30 mins with prob. 0.1  Average = ? By walk: 18 mins for sure Now you have only 20 mins to go for an exam, which would you choose? Why? 1- 4 Buy lottery or stocks?

5 For Wang’s Sport Broker Is Wang’s pitching faster than Petite? 1234567891011 W9189939492889190 9389 P9590879296949092959688 How much $? The Official Site of The New York Yankees Stats Sortable Player Stats.htm 1- 5

6 For NTU Network Manager How much bandwidth for Internet access? 1- 6

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10 Abraham de Moivre ( 隸美弗 ) 1- 10 1667-1754 ( 牛頓 1643--1727 ) 自 1688 就客居英國終生 結識牛頓受其賞識獲選入英國皇家學會 找不到正式教職以家教為生 長期在一間咖啡店為人計算賭注以補貼生活 計算得投銅板的中央極限定理 出版 Doctrine of Chances (1st ed.1718, 2nd 1718, 3rd 1738, 1756) 書的內容被人摽竊書的學術榮耀被 Laplace 取代 但尚有 F. N. (Florence Nightingale) David 為他 專章寫下以上人生 供讀者低迴長思 ( F.N. David: Games, gods, and gambling, a history of probability and statistical ideas, 1962, republished by Dover 1998)

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12 Course Overview 97S-Syllabus_SCC.doc

13 16- 13 This Week Motivation and Course Overview Set Theory Review Applying Set Theory to Probability Probability Axioms Some Consequences of the Axioms chapter1_2008.doc

14 Bertrand’s Paradox

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