中国支出法GDP核算 China Expenditure-Based GDP Accounting Wu You

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1 中国支出法GDP核算 China Expenditure-Based GDP Accounting Wu You
April 25th, 2011, Shenzhen

2 建立与发展 Establishment and Development
1989年开展支出法GDP试行工作 In 1989, Expenditure-based GDP estimates were developed on a trial basis 1995年国家统计局在《中国统计年鉴》中对外首次公布了 1978—1994年国家支出法GDP数据和1993年30个地区支出法 GDP数据。 In 1995, National Bureau of Statistics first published national expenditure-based GDP figures of and 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions’ figures of 1993 in China Statistical Yearbook.

3 2000年以来，根据联合国1993年SNA有关规定，对支出法GDP核算方法进行了多次改进和修订,是中国核算体系重要组成部分
Since 2000 , National Bureau of Statistics has improved and revised the expenditure-based GDP accounting system for many times according to SNA1993. Expenditure-based GDP estimation is an important part of China Accounting System.

4 目前，国家和地区已正式建立了年度支出法GDP核算制度.但季度核算还在研究试算中，未对外发布数据。
At present, the state and regions have formally established the annual expenditure-based GDP accounting system ,but quarterly estimates are still on a trial basis, which haven’t been published yet.

5 基本框架

6 Basic Frame

7 居民消费支出(FCEH) Final Consumption Expenditure of Households 居民消费支出=农村居民+城镇居民 = Rural Households Expenditure + Urban Households Expenditure 类别(Categories) 1.食品类 Food 2.衣着类 Clothing 3.居住类 Residence 4.家庭设备、用品及服务类 Household Appliances and Services 5.医疗保健类 Health Care and Medical Services

8 类别 Categories 6.交通和通信类 Transport and communications
7.文教娱乐用品及服务类 Education, Culture, Recreation and Services 8.实物消费及其他 Consumption in kind and others 9.银行中介服务消费支出 Financial Service 10.保险服务消费支出 Insurance Service 11.自有住房服务 Owner-occupied Housing Service

9 居民消费支出(FCEH) 现价核算： The current price estimates 1-8类消费支出=人均消费支出×居民年平均人数
Categories 1-8 Expenditure=per capita consumption × annual average number of residents 居民年平均人数＝（年初居民人数＋年末居民人数）÷2 Annual average number of residents=(the number of the year beginning + the number of the year-end)/2 资料来源:农村与城镇住户年度调查资料,人口统计资料 Resources: Households annual survey, Population Statistics

10 居民消费支出(FCEH) 银行服务消费支出=城乡居民消费间接计算的银行中介服务+直接付费的银行服务
Financial Service=Financial Intermediation Services Indirect Measured of Households (FISIMH) + Financial Service of Households Directly Paid (FSHDP) 居民消费的间接计算的银行中介服务支出 = 间接计算的银行中介服务产出分摊给居民的部分 FSIMH = the proportion of FISIM to the households

11 居民消费支出(FCEH) 居民消费的间接计算的银行中介服务支出 =
间接计算的银行中介服务产出×(城镇居民储蓄存款年平均余额＋住房公积金存款年平均余额 + 城镇居民消费贷款年平均余额) ÷（金融机构存款年平均余额+金融机构贷款年平均余额） FISIMH=FISIM× (average annual saving account balance of urban households+ average annual saving account balance of housing provident fund+ average consumer loans account of urban households)/(average annual saving account balance of financial institutions+ average loans account balance of financial institutions)

12 居民直接付费的银行服务支出根据金融机构手续费、
佣金和其他业务收入资料计算 FSHDP estimates by the charge, brokerage and other operating income 资料来源：生产法核算资料、金融机构资料 Resources: Data from Production-based GDP and financial institutions

13 居民消费支出(FCEH) 居民保险服务消费支出＝ 各种居民寿险、财产险赔款及给付
保险业总产出× 全部保险赔款及给付合计 Insurance Service Expenditure of Household =Total output of the Insurance Industry ×(Life Insurance and Property Insurance reparations and payments)/ Total reparations and payments 资料来源: 生产法核算、保险机构、城乡住户调查资料 Resources: Data from Production-based GDP, Insurance Institutions and Households Survey

14 居民消费支出(FCEH) 自有住房服务支出（按住房成本计算） ＝城乡居民自有住房修理维护费用 ＋城镇居民自有住房管理费
＋城乡居民自有住房虚拟折旧 Owner-occupied Housing Service (estimates on cost)= Repair and Maintenance Costs + Management Fee + Imputed Depreciation 其中：虚拟折旧=房屋成本价×折旧率 Imputed Depreciation= Housing Cost × Depreciation Rate 资料来源:农村与城镇住户调查资料、房地产投资统计年报 Resources: Households Survey, Annual Report of Real Estate Investment

15 居民消费支出(FCEH) 不变价核算：Constant Price Estimation 1.1-8类采用CPI缩减
Categories 1-8 are deflated by CPI 2.金融服务、保险服务、自有住房服务采用核算缩减指数 Financial Services, Insurance Services and Owner-occupied Housing Services are deflated by the deflators of production approach

16 政府消费支出(CEG) Consumption Expenditure of Government
现价核算(current price estimation)： 政府消费支出＝工资福利支出 ＋商品和服务支出 －对个人和家庭的转移性支出 － 市场性收入 ＋ 固定资产折旧 Current Operating Expenditures= Salary and Welfare + Expenditure on goods and services – Transfer Payments to households and individuals– Operating Revenue + Depreciation of Fixed Assets 资料来源：财政部行政事业单位决算资料、国防白皮书 Resources: Ministry of Finance’s budget data for government institutions, Defense White Paper

17 政府消费支出(CEG) 不变价核算(Constant price estimation)： 1.经常性业务支出：利用 CPI缩减。
Expenditure of Regular Business: deflated by CPI 2.固定资产折旧：利用固定资产投资价格指数缩减。 Depreciation of Fixed Assets: deflated by Price Indices for Fixed Assets Investment

18 固定资本形成总额(GFCF) Gross Fixed Capital Formation
现价核算(current price estimates)： 固定资本形成总额 = 住宅 + 非住宅建筑物 + 机器和设备 + 土地改良支出 + 矿藏勘探费 + 计算机软件 +其他 GFCF= Residential Construction + Non-Residential Construction + Machinery and Equipment + Land Reclamation Expenditures + Mineral Exploration Costs + Software + Others 资料来源：固定资产投资统计年报、国土资源部、工信部有关统计资料 Resources: Annual report of Fixed Assets Investment, Ministry of Land and Natural Resources, Ministry of Industry and Information

19 固定资本形成总额(GFCF) 不变价核算(constant price estimates)：
1.住宅、非住宅建筑物、机器和设备、土地改良支出、矿藏勘探费、其他项分别按固定资产投资价格指数中对应的价格指数和房屋销售价格指数缩减 Residential Construction ,Non-Residential Construction, Machinery and Equipment, Land Reclamation , Mineral Exploration Costs and Others are deflated by fixed assets investment price index and housing sales price index 2.计算机软件：按商品零售价格指数中“服务项目价格指数”缩减 Computer Software is deflated by computer software price index of retail price index.

20 存货变化(CI) Change in Inventories
由于缺乏资料来源，存货增加没有按原材料、燃 料、储备物资、产成品和半成品等分类计算，而 是按以下行业计算。 Change in Inventories is estimated by industries other than categories such as raw materials, fuel, reserve materials, products and semi-finished products, because of limitation of basic data

21 现价核算(current price estimation)：
农林牧渔业 Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery 工业Industry 建筑业Construction 交通运输、仓储及邮政业Transport, Warehousing and Postal 批发和零售业Wholesale and Retail 住宿和餐饮业Hotels and Catering Services 房地产业Real Estate 其他服务业Other Services

22 存货变化 （CI） Change in Inventories
不变价核算(constant price estimation)： 农林牧渔业企业：农产品生产价格指数； Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery: Agricultural Products Price Index 工业、建筑业、交通运输业、仓储业邮政业：工业 品出厂价格指数； Industry, Construction, Transport, Warehousing and Postal: PPI 批发和零售业、住宿和餐饮业：商品零售价格指数. Wholesale and Retail, hotels and catering services: Retail Price Index

23 存货变化(CI) Change in Inventories
房地产业：建材类价格指数； Real Estate: Price Index of Construction Materials 其他服务业：商品零售价格指数。 Other Services: Retail Price Index 资料来源： 农业、工业、建筑业、批发零售业、房地产业、国有企业等年度财 务资料、经济普查数据及各种价格统计资料。 Resources: Annual Financial Report of Agriculture, Industry, Construction, Wholesale and Retail Sales, Real Estate, State-owned enterprises; Data from Economy Census and various pricing statistics.

24 货物和服务净出口 Net Export of Goods and Services
现价核算(current price estimation): 货物和服务净出口=货物和服务出口—货物和服务进口 Net export of goods and services = Export of goods and services- Import of goods and services 货物出口和进口价值都按离岸价格计算，服务出口和进口价值按交易发生时的市场价格计算。 The value of goods export and import is computed by free-on-board price, the value of services import and export by market price when transaction actually occurs.

25 货物和服务净出口 Net Export of Goods and Services
另外,还需将按美元计算的数据用当年平均汇率折算 成按人民币计算的数据。 In addition, the data calculated by USD should be converted to the data by CNY with the current average exchange rate. 资料来源：货物和服务出口总额和进口总额取自海 关货物进出口资料和国际收支平衡表。 Resources: Customs and BOP

26 货物和服务净出口 Net Export of Goods and Services
不变价核算(constant price estimation) 进出口货物价格指数主要采用海关总署编制的进出口商品价格指数。 Most import and export of goods price indices are the commodity price indices authorized by General Administration of Customs.

27 货物和服务净出口 Net Export of Goods and Services
目前,我国还没有编制进出口服务价格指数，不变价服务出口价格指数 参照我国CPI中的服务项目价格指数；进口服务价格指数参考主要贸易 国的CPI。 At present, China has not authorized services import and export price index. Services export at constant price is calculated by referring to service items price index of CPI and the services import price index at constant price is estimated by referring to the CPIs of main trading countries and regions. 采用基年美元兑人民币的年平均汇率 Export and import (CNY)= Export and import (USD) * annual average exchange rate of the base year

28 支出法GDP数据发布程序和修订 Releasing and revision procedure of GDE
1.初步核算数据：于次年5月在《中国统计摘要》上发布。 Preliminary accounting data will be released in China Statistical Abstract in May of the next year. 2.初步核实数据：于次年9月在《中国统计提要》和《中国统计年鉴》上发布。 Preliminary verifying data will be released in China Statistical Summary in September of the next year.

29 支出法GDP数据发布程序和修订 Releasing and revision procedure of GDE
3.最终核实数据：于隔年5月和9月在《中国统计摘要》、《中国统计提要》和《中国统计年鉴》上发布。 Final verifying data will be released in China Statistical Abstract, China Statistical Summary and China Statistical Year Book in May and September of the next year.

30 支出法GDP数据发布程序和修订 Releasing and revision procedure of GDE
在经济普查年份，由于发现对支出法GDP数据有较大影响的数据资料，或者由于计算方法、分类标准发生变化时，还要对历史数据进行修订和发布。在做上述数据调整时，既要修订GDP总量，也要修订增长速度。 GDE and other historical data would be revised and published when important data greatly influencing GDE appear in Economy Census year, or computing methods and categories standards have changed. Both the quantity and growth rate are needed to be revised when adjustment is made.

31 存在的问题和困难 Problems and Difficulties
一、与生产法GDP数据存在差距、不衔接 The discrepancy still exists between GDP and GDE 二、指标分类较粗，不能满足分析需要 The categories are too broad to meet the analyzing need 三、一些指标不变价核算方法需要改进 Some methods of constant price estimating need to be improved 四、基础资料缺乏 Baseline materials and data are limited

32 谢谢！ THANK YOU !