劉廣遜先生 創辦人與副董事長 美國新資源銀行(New Resource Bank)

Presentation on theme: "劉廣遜先生 創辦人與副董事長 美國新資源銀行(New Resource Bank)"— Presentation transcript:

1 劉廣遜先生 創辦人與副董事長 美國新資源銀行(New Resource Bank)
綠經濟– 全球主要的機會 劉廣遜先生 創辦人與副董事長 美國新資源銀行(New Resource Bank)

2 綠經濟將問題變成機會 全球暖化 能源安全 污染問題 食品危險 不健康的生活 不堪負荷的成長 “危機就是轉機 ” 亞伯 愛因斯坦
Our development is unsustainable in the long run Warming planet can cause extreme weather that leads to fires and storms We are on borrowed-time from depleting fossil fuels that also has bad geopolitical implications The sustainability issues here are interconnected: every 5 minutes, a child still dies from mal-nutrition highly publicized food scandals from factory production of cheaper foods heart disease from over-nutrition, especially in bad nutrients is causing 30% of all deaths China and Brazil has increased red meat consumption by 33% Beef farming causes 3x the Green house gas emissions versus other proteins Climate change is causing historic droughts in Australia and Argentina who are big food producers Desalinization is a fast growing industry, but highly energy intensive “危機就是轉機 ” 亞伯 愛因斯坦

3 氣候變遷: 全球責無旁貸的挑戰 跨政府氣候變遷專家小組 (IPCC) 認為450ppm是穩定最後的極限
二氧化碳於大氣中含量變化 跨政府氣候變遷專家小組 (IPCC) 認為450ppm是穩定最後的極限 每百萬噸中二氧化碳在大氣中所佔的體積 京都正面臨結束而調整的時間越來越短, 下一個將是 哥本哈根 There is scientific consensus that we need to slow and stabilize climate change Green house gas concentration in atmosphere raised from 315 to almost 390 PPM in the last 50 years IPCC modeling predicts that severe and irreversible impact will happen if we can’t stabilize at 450 PPM. Some think lower Past efforts have not worked. Japan is currently 9% above 1990 versus the Kyoto target of 5% less than 1990 (2012) Estimated cost from doing nothing can be more than $2 trillion per year

4 氣候緩慢變遷助長能源安全問題 為何汽油 這麼貴 ?
What jobs and economic prospects were saved by doing nothing? GM, Chrsyler both bankrupt (Hummer sold to China) Major geopolitical problems from oil producing regions 78% of world’s oil is produced by 50 companies, 70% of that from national oil companies OPEC and former soviet union hold 87% of world reserves Finding cost for oil is up 3x from 1997 to 2007 Cost of $20/Ton of carbon is just 20 cents per gallon (2 NTD per liter)

5 在第111屆美國國會提案，配額交易二氧化碳於2005-2050年減量排放。
美國氣候的活動 – 才剛開始 在第111屆美國國會提案，配額交易二氧化碳於 年減量排放。 2009/06/25 企業現況 2005年的程度 1990年的程度 二氧化碳 百萬公噸 排放上限 Doing nothing has cost the US jobs and leadership in industries like wind and solar California, the country’s innovator and leading economy enacted AB32 in 2006 June 26, 2009 marked the first time the US federal government passed climate change legislation – the American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES) The act calls for gradual reduction to the stabilization range by 2050 Other provisions focus on how to do it like renewable energy standards The US is about 25% of the world’s emissions every US person emits 23.5 ton per year versus global average of 4 ton every person in China is about 5.5 ton per year 單排放上限 限制與補充要求 仍可減量的潛在範圍

6 需要什麼投資呢? 碳的成本:如何可以經濟的減碳? 能源效率與綠建築
Despite job losses from doing nothing opponents still challenge progress based on costs to the economy Mckinsey study shows much of the early reduction actually are positive in savings versus costs Buildings energy usage can be 25 to 30% of energy use Automotive 15 to 18% People say renewable energy are too expensive We don’t need to rely fully on renewable energy today Renewables are an investment for the future – for jobs and for future reductions “The stone age didn’t end because we ran out of stones” Hybrid and other fuel efficient automotive technology are here today Highly popular cash for clunkers in US and Germany Japan Prius sales 4x in 2009 能源效率與綠建築 Source: Mckinsey-Vattenfall

7 更高效能的建築 建築設計與 空調 能源分析 室內通風 窗戶與 光源 網路通訊 建材 感應器的控制 國內/國外政策, 規章, 標準與市場
電力傳送與 需求回覆 Building efficiency can be accomplished mostly with existing technology There is also room for innovation in the areas of lighting, controls, HVAC equipment and building materials This means opportunity for industry today (after recovery) Developed countries – retrofits Developing countries – new builds and new building codes 宣傳

8 發展: 再生能源的創新與規模 對經濟與企業的影響 > 200 矽谷有超過200家太陽能公司興起
資本成本 對經濟與企業的影響 > 200 矽谷有超過200家太陽能公司興起 > 20 美國超過20家登記上市的太陽能公司 2009 年太陽能模組的價格由2008年的高峰下跌30%到40% Wind competitive with gas at moderate carbon prices風力與天然氣的競爭減緩了碳價格 美國風力發電的產能倍增 Vestas 風力發電廠的營業額是丹麥第八大的公司(大於Statoil 1.5倍) 美國28州已經有了 資源預警系統 美國於2020年將需要20% ACES 酒精能源 太陽熱能 太陽能 光電能量換器 風力發電 Vinod Khosla a famous venture capitalist and Jim Woolsey, former CIA director under president Bush probably agrees on very little. But both have said that renewable energy represent the biggest economic opportunity for the 21st century With energy security and environmental issues factored in – it is hard to argue Theoretically, we can produce all the energy for the world from solar energy on just 0.001% of the land areas However there needs to be much technological progress There are encouraging signs Costs have come down with R&D and scale Wind energy is getting more and more competitive Vestas is bigger than Statoil Silicon Valley’s innovators and investors are jumping in Taiwan is already active in solar and has opportunity for the future 蓄積能量產量 百萬瓦 Source: Energy Information Administration

9 從再生能源上看到的限制與機會 風力能源 與系統需求 太陽能源與系統需求 小時/天 小時/月 能量儲存線 每小時的負載量 系統生產
24 6 12 18 Hour of Day Power 需求(百萬瓦) 風力 百萬瓦 能量儲存線 每小時的負載量 百萬瓦 電量 系統生產 Renewable energy not only needs to get cheaper but it also most get smarter The one thing we can solve: no one can control the weather Problems can become opportunities 小時 小時 Source: NREL

10 相關機會 種種創新的零件所組裝而成的產品都是為了符合我們的需求 電力 & 感應器 更聰明設計的產品 可診斷性 車載智慧 平衡系統
即使電池花費 $0, 太陽能是$2/瓦特 節省勞工 與 有效節能 值得的製造與設計的產品 Major opportunities around renewable energy can be built on traditional technology and manufacturing strengths Power electronics Example: National Semi-conductor, Cisco Semi fab or equipment Example: Advanced Materials, Siemens Digital power circuitry Contract manufacturing Batteries and energy storage 儲存系統 實用的設備並且減少五倍支出 適用於電器化學，熱力，動力，積體電路整合等領域

11 智慧電網-行的通 智慧電網的建商範例: 節能建物系統 必備通訊系統 網路 可再生能源 消費端與 建物製造商 太陽能 進階計量 供給器 能源分配系統 動力系統控制 控制端連接器 油電混合插座 智慧電網 使用裝置 自動分配與 儲存發電機 資料管理 Connecting advances on efficiency of the demand side with the more complicated new supply equation is a whole huge market area called the “smart grid” After all the early hype about renewable energy, Silicon Valley and VCs are starting to realize that smart grid investments are the ones really making money Without subsidies Helping to improve old infrastructure or new ones Can be developed using traditional strengths in IT, networking and software

12 乾淨能源的資金與獎勵 政府部份: 商業部份: 政策與補助的支持 補助金, 延稅 貸款保證, 延稅, 退稅 減稅措施 先期的投資者/贊助者?
投資, 私人資產, 專案融資 能源公司,公共事業, 專案融資, 股票 研發 氫氣能源 奈米太陽能應用 太陽能 測試 海風能源 部署 陸風能源 Innovation is the catalyst but financing is the fuel The big challenges of developing and commercializing energy conversion in the future needs big financial inputs from the private sector Government’s partnership needs to help push the technology to the point of bankability In the US the players include government agencies, venture capital, private equity, capital markets, banks and large strategic companies 天然氣能源 商業 科技 成本 時間 Source: BP

13 市場看到機會了嗎? 乾淨能源的投資趨勢 Clean energy investments gain momentum as the world started to deal with higher energy prices and as countries enacted supportive laws Feed-in tariff Renewable tax credits One of the “big bang” in the U.S. is the “Green Wave” initiative launched in 2004 by CalPERS and CalSTRS the country’s biggest and second biggest pension funds 1Q 09 $13.3 bn invested, $11.5 bn in new built projects Decline due to economic crisis and change in laws in Spain 第一季 Source: New Energy Finance

14 太陽能 太陽能 生化燃料 生化燃料 生化燃料 節能綠建築 節能運輸 節能數位能源 太陽能 太陽能
投資風險: 領導優勢在哪? 美國前十大公布能源科技投資交易(2008) 公司名稱 投資區塊 總投資金額 (百萬美金) 太陽能 太陽能 生化燃料 生化燃料 生化燃料 節能綠建築 節能運輸 節能數位能源 太陽能 太陽能

15 巨大的報酬來自於大量的市場需求但首要強化商業性質
主要的投資與 資金總類 巨大的報酬來自於大量的市場需求但首要強化商業性質 太陽熱能 纖維生化燃料 太陽能多晶矽板 太陽能薄膜 聚光型太陽光電 太陽能單矽晶板 風力發電 海洋 綠建築 森林重造 電動車 Investment needs to happen at different stages of technology development A big special characteristics is the capital intensiveness of the investments, which adds to the risk of getting it wrong 藻類生化燃料 -專案融資 獨資或合資 公開發行股票集資 - 其他商業方式 領導 獨資或合資 - 政策支持 - 補助或貸款保證 研發與廣告試撥 - 合夥支持研發 - 技術突破 - 贊助金

16 成長的空間 美國將於2011年成為最大的太陽能使用者(估計從 600 MW 提升到1.6 GW)
德國有全世界最大的太陽能使用量(佔世界光電產能的57%) 與西雅圖的太陽能隔絕體相同 美國光電產能佔世界的 7% Solar is 0.05% of the world’s energy usage Policy helps drive leadership Germany is also the world’s leader in bio-diesel (50% of the market) In 2008 US installed 8,335 MW of wind. It now has the world’s largest wind fleet at 25 GW wind manufacturers have set-up in the US 美國將於2011年成為最大的太陽能使用者(估計從 600 MW 提升到1.6 GW) 中國金陽計劃目標於2012年提升到500 MW by (從 80 MW) Source: JP Morgan

17 3百萬新太陽能光電設備與風力發電扇可以讓全球多活十年
公共或私人的大夥伴 美國人的重複再利用的行動 (“帳單刺激”) $720億直接投資以及220億的稅金獎勵 能源部分 ($260億); 智慧電網 ($170億); 綠能車與綠能交通工具 ($310億) 分配$60億 貸款保證的以承擔 $600億到 $1000億貸款 美國人對乾淨能源與能源安全的行動 (HR 2454 “Waxman Markey) 對能源世代的新標準 加速提升再生能源與能源運用效率的技術 控制美國 87%的溫室氣體排放 分配限額以保護資源 減量使用木材 (在國內與國際上), 包含森林保育 重視環保議題, 運用市場力量 每個家庭每一天花一張郵票錢，讓綠經濟復甦 避免因為全球暖化造成經濟上兆元的損失 The stimulus bill can stimulate up to up to $150 billion for clean energy ACES debate centers around jobs That debate hinges on how some of the legislators from America’s Midwest heartland Ohio and Michigan have unemployment rate of >15% Xunlight in Ohio is creating jobs. Dr. Deng Xunming “Of course there is a cost, but this is an investment in our economy, for our future” 3百萬新太陽能光電設備與風力發電扇可以讓全球多活十年 Source: Clean Edge, Inc. 2009

18 63% 的美國人支持智慧電網的投資 以提供來減少能源使用的鼓勵
刺激綠經濟– 誰想要呢? 支持綠產品可刺激投資? 63% 的美國人支持智慧電網的投資 以提供來減少能源使用的鼓勵 支持 不知道 在一般生活開銷上，美國人願意多付 15% 的錢選擇替代能源 不支持 Is it the government or the people? Government is following the people’s lead Source: Penn, Schoen & Berland and Burson Marsteller May 2009 Survey

19 問題:如果綠產品提供其他的好處，你願意為它多付費用嗎?
消費者轉向綠經濟的趨勢 問題:如果綠產品提供其他的好處，你願意為它多付費用嗎? Green preference cuts across cultures and nationalities 回覆者表示不願意多付 回覆者表示願意多付最多5% 回覆者表示願意多付5-10% 回覆者表示願意多付10-20% 回覆者表示願意多付20%以上 Source: BCG Green Consumer Survey

20 樂活市場的檢視: 美國消費者於2005年共花費$2090 億美元
Lifestyle of Health and Sustainability健康和關心地球永續的生活方式=樂活 (U.S. LOHAS Market Size – Consumer Spending in 2005 (billions)) 個人健康 56.6% 綠建築 23.8% 簡單的旅遊 11.6% 天然的生活方式 5.1% 替代的交通方式 2.9% Green awareness goes beyond energy and climate change People want to live and eat healthier People want a cleaner local environment People are scared from food scandals and over medication Source: The LOHAS Consumer Trends Database™; SilverCliff Media © Natural Marketing Institute (NMI)/SilverCliff Media

21 10年來平均有機食品的成長率 19%，全部食品市場的成長率 4%
美國有機食物市場趨勢 10年來平均有機食品的成長率 19%，全部食品市場的成長率 4% An example of how consumer preference turns into profit and opportunity Source: Organic Trade Association