Methods and Tools for Resilience Planning: 适应机制规划方法与工具:

Presentation on theme: "Methods and Tools for Resilience Planning: 适应机制规划方法与工具:"— Presentation transcript:

1 Methods and Tools for Resilience Planning: 适应机制规划方法与工具:
中英瑞气候变化适应项目ACCC: Workshop Climate Change Impact And Risk Assessments MARCH 3-5, 2010 Beijing Climate Vulnerability Assessments 气候脆弱性评估 Sarah Opitz-Stapleton, ISET 中英瑞气候变化适应项目: 气候变化 影响与风险评估 研讨会 北京 2010年3月3日至五日

2 Climate Vulnerability Assessments 气候脆弱性评估
Climate vulnerability assessments help you to identify who & what are vulnerable to what and the reasons why they are vulnerable. 气候脆弱性评估有助于识别 不同人群或事物易受何种因 素影响，原因何在 Birkman 2005: 4

3 Why Conduct CVAs? 为什么要进行气候脆弱性评估?
Climate vulnerability analyses help you to: 气候脆弱性分析有助于： Identify the most climate vulnerable populations in your province, to what they are vulnerable and why 识别所在省份最脆弱人群、易受何种因素影响，原因何 在 Identify how gender and social factors affect the vulnerability of women and men differently, especially among the most climate vulnerable populations in your area 识别性别与社会因素何以会对男性与女性的脆弱性造成 差异性影响，对区域内最易受气候影响的人群尤为重要

4 Why Conduct CVAs? 为什么要进行气候脆弱性评估?
Climate vulnerability analyses help you to: 气候脆弱性分析有助于： Identify the most climate vulnerable areas in your province. 识别所在省份最易受气候影响的地区 Identify the most climate vulnerable ecosystems, sectors and institutions. 识别最易受气候影响的生态系统、部门与机构

5 Why Conduct CVAs? 为什么要进行气候脆弱性评估?
Climate vulnerability analyses help you to: 气候脆弱性分析有助于: Take a systems perspective to identify the range of social, economic, physical, environmental and human factors - and the interlinkages across systems - that shape vulnerability. 从系统角度识别能够影响脆弱性的社会、经济、自 然、环境及人为因素（包括系统间联系）

6 Concepts, Principles & Applications 概念、原则与应用
Climate vulnerability assessments involve combining the following sets of information: 气候脆弱性评估包含以下信息： Historical climate information and projections of future climate, while knowing the limitations of future projections 历史上的气候信息和对未来气候的预测（虽然未来 气候预测有一定局限性）

7 Concepts, Principles & Applications 概念、原则与应用
Climate vulnerability assessments involve combining the following sets of information: 气候脆弱性评估包含以下信息： Examinations of physical, social, environmental, economic and human dimensions that contribute to vulnerability or enhance capacity. 研究造成脆弱性或加强能力的自然、社会、环境、 经济与人类活动。 Examinations of policies, institutions, communication and usage of information, and inclusive and coordinated planning processes. 研究政策、体制、交流和信息的使用、包容性规划 与协调性规划过程。

8 Concepts, Principles & Applications 概念、原则与应用
Climate vulnerability assessments involve combining the following sets of information: 气候脆弱性评估包含以下信息： Specific attention to the vulnerabilities and capacities of the most poor and vulnerable groups. 特别关注最贫困和最脆弱群体的脆弱性与能力。 Consideration of how vulnerability may differ across scales and time. 考虑脆弱性在不同尺度间的差异。

9 Concepts, Principles & Applications 概念、原则与应用
…in order to: Develop, prioritise and target adaptation strategies and actions to address key vulnerable groups, sectors and systems. 实现: 发展、优化、确定适应战略、行动 ，用于主要 脆弱群体、部门与系统。

10 Analysis Techniques 分析方法
Focus group discussions, interviews and stakeholder consultations 有针对性小组讨论、会谈并咨询利益相关者 Shared Learning Dialogues 共享学习对话 Participatory vulnerability assessments 参与式脆弱性评估方法

11 Analysis Techniques 分析方法
Governance and institutional analysis 管理层与机构分析 Community-resource markets mapping 社区资源市场测绘 Quantitative indices of vulnerability 脆弱性定量指数 Household and community surveys 入户与社区调查

12 Analysis Techniques 分析方法
Climate scenarios and hydrologic modeling 气候情景与水文模型 GIS-enabled vulnerability mapping using overlays of biophysical and social indicators, boundaries, service delivery, infrastructure, climate and socio-economic scenarios 叠加生物物理和社会指数、分界、服务交付、 基础设施、气候与社会经济情景，应用全球信息 系统进行脆弱性测绘

13 Shared Learning Dialogues 共享学习对话
Small, iterative focus group discussions to: 多次进行的小型讨论 组： Engage vulnerable groups & assess their capacities 编入弱势群体& 评估其能力 Understand and work with complex, adaptive systems 了解复杂适应系统， 与其共同工作 Cross disciplinary and orgranisational boundaries & scales of governance 跨学科、跨组织、跨管 理部门 Generate new information & use existing information in new ways 产生 新的信息&以新的方式使用已有信息 共享学习对话进程 当地经验、科学研究 反思、修订计划 学习 监控、文件、 使用对话系统、 反思 监控、文件、 使用对话系统、 反思 监控、文件、 使用对话系统、 反思 共享学习对话 规划、实行 时间

14 Vulnerability Indices 脆弱性指数
Types of Vulnerability and Indicators Vulnerability Capacity Material Vulnerabilities (Total Score 30) Income Source Educational Attainment Assets Exposure Institutional Vulnerability (Total Score 50) Social Networks Extra-local kinship ties Infrastructure Proportion of dependents in a household Warning Systems Community of disadvantaged caste, religious or ethnic minority Attitudinal Vulnerability (Total Score 20) Sense of Empowerment Total Possible Vulnerability Score 100  Adapted from Mustafa et al & 2009

15 Vulnerability Indices 脆弱性指数
脆弱性与指数类型 脆弱性 能力 物质脆弱性 (满分 30) 收入来源 受教育水平 资产 经历 体制脆弱性 (满分 50) 社会合作 与外地亲属的联系 基础设施 家庭受扶养人口比例 预警系统 次等种姓、宗教或少数民族社区 观念脆弱性 (满分 20) 权利感 总计 100  Adapted from Mustafa et al & 2009

16 Vulnerability Frameworks 脆弱性框架
目前越南归仁地区的脆弱性因素  遭遇 谁 / 什么 强降雨事件 风暴潮 飓风 干旱 渔民 更难捕到鱼、难以快 速完成打捞 损毁船只、房屋、资 产，危及生命 生活用水短缺 主要作物：水稻 季节影响 – 冲走种 子、作物腐烂 洼地、 沿海稻田被 海水淹没 作物被毁 水量不足，产量减损 主要部门：旅游业 游客留滞宾馆，不能 购物 海滩遭到破坏必须关 闭，危及生命 游客手足无措、有人 丧生、宾馆基础设施 损毁、以旅游业为生 者收入减少 宾馆实行水量配给 主要部门：能源 电网可能中断 沿海电网被毁、电力 受损 基础设施受损 由于缺水，电厂无法 工作，轮流限电 Adapted from Lebel 2009

17 Vulnerability Frameworks 脆弱性框架
Elements of current vulnerability in Quy Nhon, Viet Nam  TO WHAT WHO / WHAT Intense Rainfall Events Storm Surge Hurricanes Drought Fishing Households More difficult to catch fish and process fish quickly Damage to boats, houses, assets and risks to life Water shortages for domestic use Key Sector: Rice crops Seasonal impacts - washout of seeds, rotting of crop Low-lying, coastal paddies inundated with salt water Crops destroyed Insufficient water for crops, loss of one rice crop Key Sector: Tourism Tourists can’t spend money on shopping because stuck in hotel. Beaches damaged and must be closed, risk to life Tourists don’t know what to do, loss of life & hotel infrastructure, loss of income to tourist dependent livelihoods Water rationing at hotels Key Sector: Energy Potential disruption to power grid Destruction of coastal power grid, loss of power Damage to infrastructure Not enough water to keep power plant functional, rolling blackouts Adapted from Lebel 2009

18 Vulnerability Frameworks 脆弱性框架
对于 谁 / 什么 现有脆弱性 其他相关系统 能力 渔民 低收入、低信贷、受教 育水平低 可获取的预警信息有限 制定规划与政策时没有 征求他们的意见 所有 社会网络与社区组织 有兴趣了解新的机遇 主要作物：水稻 -极易受气候灾害影响 资产减损、信贷、作物 保险有限 出农作物外无其他生计 来源 -交通运输、油价 -化肥与农药花销 -生态系统健康 主要部门：旅游业 气候事件使宾馆遭受损 失 工人失业 宾馆选址过于接近海滨 -能源、食品、水 -综合经济体 (本地与非本地) 开发多种旅游机会 热心生态旅游 主要部门：能源 -许多边远地区无法接通 - 水资源供给 - 交通运输 - 交流 工人训练有素，十分注意安全问 题 

19 Vulnerability Frameworks 脆弱性框架
TO WHAT WHO / WHAT Current Vulnerabilities Links to Other Systems Capacities Fishing Households - Low income & access to credit, education Limited access to early warning Not consulted in planning or policies All Social networks & community organizations Interest in learning new opportunities Key Sector: Rice crops - High risk to climate hazards Loss of assets, limited credit or crop insurance No alternative livelihood if crop fails Transportation, fuel prices Fertilizer and pesticide costs Ecosystem health Key Sector: Tourism Damage to hotels during events Loss of employment for workers Hotels being built too close to beach -Transportation costs Energy, food, water - Overall economy (local and non-local) Multiple tourist opportunities Strong interest in ecotourism Key Sector: Energy -Many outlying areas not connected - Water supply - Transportation - Communication Workers trained and very concerned with safety 

20 Community-based Vulnerability Assessments 社区评估
参与式社区或特殊群体的 脆弱性、成因与能力评估 Participatory assessment by the community or particular groups of their vulnerability, the factors contributing and their capacities

21 GIS-Enabled Mapping 全球信息系统测绘
印多尔：取样地 能力&脆弱性指数 TARU: Map of Indore, India

22 Hazard Mapping 灾害测绘 Flood extent in cm SLR 水灾范围 cm 单反 Southern Institute of Water Resources

23 Strengths and Weaknesses 优势与劣势
An integrated systems approach, using multiple techniques, ensures that a range of factors that contribute to vulnerability are considered. 这是一种综合系统评估方法，使用多种技术，确保一系列影 响脆弱性的要素都被纳入考察范围。 Participatory vulnerability assessments facilitate local ownership & future involvement in resiliency strategies 参与式脆弱性评估有益推进地方自主权&未来参与适应机制 策略 An iterative approach enables awareness of & response to dynamic conditions 反复法可以使人意识到不断变动的条件并作出相应反应。

24 Strengths and Weaknesses 优势与劣势
It is not possible to include every factor & one might miss a factor that turns out to be critical in the future. 不 可能把所有要素都包含在内，你可能会遗漏某个因素， 将来它却有可能变得至关重要。 Vulnerabilities created from distant areas or from resource flows (water, food, energy, markets) beyond city boundaries are not easily considered in assessments, but need attention. 由边远地区或跨城资 源(水资源、食品、能源、市场)造成的脆弱性很难纳入 评估范围，而这种脆弱性同样需要获得关注.

25 Strengths and Weaknesses 优势与劣势
Mapping and matrices are useful for summarizing information, but don’t provide all the detail and context of vulnerability. Detailed discussions & stakeholder consultations are necessary to explain dimensions and factors contributing to vulnerability, capacities and interlinkages among systems. 测绘与矩阵有助于总结信息，但不能提供所有与脆弱性 有关的细节与背景。有必要通过详细讨论&咨询利益相关 者来解释造成脆弱性的维数与要素、能力和系统间联系。

26 Strengths and Weaknesses 优势与劣势
No single method or tool discussed here is sufficient on its own to capture: The multi-dimensional, differential variance across physical space and among/within social groups; Dependence of scale; and Dynamism of varying degrees of susceptibility and capacity over time. 这里谈到的所有方法或工具都不能独自捕获： 自然空间与社会团体之间/内部的多维度、多样化的差异 依赖度 随时间推移，脆弱性与能力发生不同程度变化的动力

27 Strengths and Weaknesses 优势与劣势
It is necessary to use multiple vulnerability tools to systematically uncover the range of environmental, economic, social/institutional and physical factors that contribute to climate variability and cannot be considered in isolation. 这就需要采用多种脆弱性分析工具，系统地研究那些影 响气候变化却不能单独考量的社会、经济、社会/体制和 自然因素。

28 Additional Resources Lebel, L. (2009), Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment, Contribution to the ACCCRN Vietnam Research Methods Workshop, Hanoi. (ask ISET for copies). IFRC (2006), What is VCA? An introduction to vulnerability and capacity assessment, disasters/vca/whats-vca-en.pdf Abarquez, I. and Z. Murshed (2004), Community-Based Disaster Risk Management: A field practitioners’ handbook, ads/Publications/12Handbk.pdf Fajber, L. (2009), Climate Vulnerability Assessments in ACCCRN Cities, ISET’s ACCCRN Methodology Workshop, Boulder. (ask ISET for copies) Gender and Disaster Network (2010), Training Materials for Gender Mainstreaming in Disaster Risk Reduction,

29 更多信息请参考 Lebel, L. (2009), 亚洲城市气候变化能力网络（ACCCRN）越南河 内研究方法研讨会提供的《气候变化脆弱性评估》（社会环境转型 研究所提供副本） 国际联合会红十字会与红新月会联合会 (2006), 《什么是脆弱性与 能力评估？脆弱性与能力评估简介》 -disasters/vca/whats-vca-en.pdf Abarquez, I. and Z. Murshed (2004), 《社区灾害风险管理从业 人员手册》, oads/Publications/12Handbk.pdf Fajber, L. (2009),《亚洲城市气候变化能力网络气候变化脆弱性 评估》 ，社会环境转型研究所博尔德亚洲城市气候变化能力研究方 法研讨会（社会环境转型研究所提供副本） 性别和灾害网络(2010),减低灾害风险性别主流化培训材料，

30 Additional Resources Mustafa, D., S. Ahmed, E. Saroch and the RTR Study Team (2008), Pinning down Vulnerability: From Narratives to Numbers, From Risk to Resilience Working Paper 2, t.org/index.php/publications Moench, M. and A. Dixit [Eds.] (2007), Working with the Winds of Change: Toward Strategies for Responding to the Risks Associated with Climate Change and Other Hazards, t.org/index.php/publications Keinberger, S. (2008), Toolbox & Manual: Mapping the vulnerability of communities: Example from Búzi, Mozambique, Disaster Risk Reduction Training and Learning Circle of India (2010),

31 更多信息请参考 Mustafa, D., S. Ahmed, E. Saroch and the RTR Study Team (2008), 《应 对脆弱性：从叙述到数字》 ，风险到适应机制工作稿2, e-t.org/index.php/publications Moench, M. and A. Dixit [Eds.] (2007), 《踏变革之风：建立应对气候 变化和其他危害的风险相关的战略》 t.org/index.php/publications Keinberger, S. (2008), 《社区脆弱性测绘手册：以莫桑比克布济为例》 全印度减灾研究所 (2010),