國際財務管理 International Financial Management

Presentation on theme: "國際財務管理 International Financial Management"— Presentation transcript:

1 國際財務管理 International Financial Management
林志斌 博士 台灣大學國際企業研究所博士

2 CH 03 國際貨幣制度

3 國際貨幣制度的基本類型 固定匯率 管理浮動 自由浮動

4 國際貨幣制度的演進 古典金本位制：西元前3000年埃及古王國時期，即以黃金為價值交換工具，又以黃金表示其幣值

5 近代金本位制 出現在1819-1914，拿破崙戰爭後 各國貨幣可依一固定比例兌換黃金固定匯率
例：₤ 1 = 0.2 oz 黃金，Fr 1 = 0.1 oz 黃金₤ 1 = Fr 2 匯兌風險小，有助國際貿易發展

6 近代金本位制 Hume (1750)「物價與黃金移動機能」 缺點：經濟發展Md ↑；黃金供給有限Ms不變通貨緊縮，不利經濟發展
國際收支逆差錢被外國人賺走黃金流出國內Ms↓ P↓ X↑ ,M ↓順差黃金流入BOP恢復平衡 缺點：經濟發展Md ↑；黃金供給有限Ms不變通貨緊縮，不利經濟發展

7 部分金本位制(1914-1924) 由於金本位制的缺點各國放棄金本位制，改採部分金本位制浮動利率
各國亂印鈔票以償還戰債德國發生超級通貨膨脹( )

8 金匯兌本位制(1925-1931) 熱那亞會議 各國對₤沒信心將₤換黃金英國1931宣布終止₤兌換黃金 ₤可依固定比例兌換黃金
$可依固定比例兌換黃金 其他貨幣可依固定比例兌換₤、$、或黃金 各國對₤沒信心將₤換黃金英國1931宣布終止₤兌換黃金

9 貨幣制度分裂 ₤集團潰敗 黃金集團—法國 美元集團—修正後金本位制，$35 = 1 oz 黃金

10 Bretton Woods System (1941-1971)
可調整的釘住匯率制度，基本上是固定匯率 各國貨幣依固定比率兌換美元，美元可依固定比率兌換黃金 例如：NT$40=US$1，US$36=1oz黃金 但美元發行未必有100%的黃金準備 各國需維持匯率波動不超過1%，可提議變更，但最多變更10%

11 Bretton Woods System (1941-1917)
成立國際貨幣基金(IMF) 目的在協調各國貨幣免於波動 各國先繳配額，其中25%為黃金或美元，75%為該國貨幣 各國依其配額有特別提款權(SDR)，最高為配額之125%，近年來修該為600%，用以維持該國貨幣穩定

12 Bretton Woods System (1941-1917)
Triffin’s Paradox (1968) 為避免流動性不足美國國際收支必須逆差對美元信心↓ 為避免對美元信心不足，美國必須縮減逆差流動性不足

13 Bretton Woods System的崩潰(1971)
美國BOP鉅額逆差且發生嚴重物價膨脹（因應越戰、社福而印鈔票） 尼克森總統1971宣布 凍結國內物價 停止美元兌換黃金 輸美商品加稅10% Bretton Woods System因而崩潰

14 Smithsonian協定(1971) 美元兌黃金貶值7.9%，日圓兌黃金升值16.9%，馬克升值7.4%，美元不能兌換黃金，並放寬匯率波動幅度1%2.25% 歐洲聯合浮動協議(1972)：會員國間幣值波動幅度維持在上下2.25%隧道中的蛇 但₤、里拉在隧道外失敗

15 多元準備貨幣制度 各國外匯準備分散到美元以外之其他幣別，如美元、₤、日圓、馬克、瑞郎、黃金、歐元等 石油危機，OPEC大賺 美國凍結伊朗資產
歐元形成

16 結論 以干涉為常態的制度，如固定匯率制度，不易長久存在（如Bretton Woods system、亞洲金融風暴）應以市場為原則，管理為例外

17 最適通貨區(The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas) (Mundell, 1967)
定義:「最適通貨區」乃一組國家組成貨幣聯盟(Monetary Union)，將彼此之匯率固定(或在一定範圍內變動)，最終以一共同之貨幣取代各國之貨幣。 一組國家是否適合組成貨幣聯盟主要系取決於組成聯盟的效益與成本。以挪威是否應加入歐元區為例:

18 挪威加入歐元區(亦即歐元以歐元取代挪威幣)有何好處?
(1) Economic Integration and the Benefits of a Fixed Exchange Rate Area(1)      Question: 挪威加入歐元區(亦即歐元以歐元取代挪威幣)有何好處?

19 (1) Economic Integration and the Benefits of a Fixed Exchange Rate Area (2)
Ans: 降低交易成本與提高交易效率，這種效益稱之為Monetary Efficiency Gain (MEG) 使用單一貨幣可以使價格易於比較、匯率波動所引起的不確定性消失。如果挪威與歐元區國家的經濟關係越密切、經濟交易越頻繁，則挪威加入歐元區所能得到的效益越大，亦即MEG和挪威與歐元區的經濟整合程度呈正相關。

20 (1) Economic Integration and the Benefits of a Fixed Exchange Rate Area(3)
MEG與經濟整合程度的關係如下:

21 (2)Economic Integration and the Loss of a Fixed Exchange Rate Area(4)
Question: 挪威加入歐元區有何成本? Ans: Economic Stability Loss(ESL) 挪威不能再以貨幣政策與匯率政策來對抗景氣循環、穩定經濟，這種成本稱為Economic Stability Loss。

22 (2)Economic Integration and the Loss of a Fixed Exchange Rate Area(5)
ESL的大小取決於挪威與歐元區的經濟整合程度。整合程度越高，挪威所發生的經濟衰退與經濟過熱越能被歐元區的國家吸收掉，因此挪威所承受的ESL越低。舉例來說，挪威發生經濟衰退時，如果挪威與歐元區的經濟整合程度很高，挪威的物價下跌會使歐元區對挪威的產品之需求增加，而挪威的失業勞工也可以移動到歐元區的其他國家獲得工作，挪威的經濟衰退程度將因而減輕。當挪威發生經濟過熱時，也是如此。

23 (2)Economic Integration and the Loss of a Fixed Exchange Rate Area (6)
ESL與經濟整合程度的關係如下:

24 結論 簡言之，一組國家的經濟整合程度越高組成貨幣聯盟的效益越高，成本越低。

25 (3)The Decision to Join a Currency Area (1)
Putting the GG and LL Schedules Together 1) Deciding When to Peg the Exchange Rate

26 (3)The Decision to Join a Currency Area (2)
2) Impact of An Increase in Output Market Variability

27 Euro Zone

28 Regional economic integration in Europe
Europe has two trade blocks European Union Seen as the emerging power with almost 25 members European Free Trade Association Has only four members

29 Evolution of the European Union
Product of two political factors: Devastation of WWI and WWII and desire for peace Desire for European nations to hold their own, politically and economically, on the world stage European Coal and Steel Community. 1957- Treaty of Rome establishes the European Community Treaty of Maastricht changes name to the European Union

30 European Union countries
Map 8..1

31 European Union countries

32 Political structure of the European Union
European council Heads of state and commission President resolves policy issues and sets policy direction European commission 20 Commissioners appointed by members for 4 year terms Proposing, implementing and monitoring legislation European parliament 630 directly elected members Propose amendments to legislation, veto power over budget and single-market legislation, appoint

33 Political structure of the European Union
Court of justice One judge from each country Hears appeals of EU laws Council of ministers One representative from each member country Ultimate controlling authority No EU laws without approval

34 Single European Act Single market program predicted to give EC firms greater opportunities to exploit economies of scale Removal of trade barriers increases competition forces EC firms to be more efficient Name changed to EU

35 Establishment of the EU
Objectives: Remove frontier controls “Mutual recognition” of product standards Open public procurement to non nationals Lift barriers to banking and insurance competition Remove restrictions on foreign exchange transactions

36 The Euro: Benefits and costs
Savings from using only one currency Easy to compare prices, resulting in lower prices Forces efficiency and slashing costs. Creates liquid pan-Europe capital market. Increases range of investments for individuals and institutions As of 2004 Euro strong against the dollar and expected to rise

37 The Euro: Costs and benefits
Countries lose monetary policy control. European Central Bank controls policy for the “Euro zone” EU is not an” optimal currency area”. Country economies are different Euro puts the economic cart before the political horse Strong Euro (2004) makes it harder for Euro zone exporters to sell their goods

38 10 new countries formally accepted into EU in 2002
Enlargement of the EU EU in 2004 is the single largest market with a population greater than the US 10 new countries formally accepted into EU in 2002 Population of EU will increase to 450 million Create European barriers to trade from the outside? Might effect EU bureaucracy and decision making process