安永观察 安永全球零售及消费品行业委员会结束了与中国同事和业内数家公司为期3天的会议 我们的观点既受到挑战，也得以验证

Presentation on theme: "安永观察 安永全球零售及消费品行业委员会结束了与中国同事和业内数家公司为期3天的会议 我们的观点既受到挑战，也得以验证"— Presentation transcript:

0 吉姆·库克 (James Cook) 安永零售及消费品业务全球总监
全球零售及消费品行业 记者招待会 吉姆·库克 (James Cook) 安永零售及消费品业务全球总监

1 安永观察 安永全球零售及消费品行业委员会结束了与中国同事和业内数家公司为期3天的会议 我们的观点既受到挑战，也得以验证
我们对“中国机遇”高兴地提出三种观点 李港卫 (Conway Lee) – 从中国的角度 杰伊·麦金托什 (Jay McIntosh) – 从美国的角度 托马斯·哈姆斯 (Thomas Harms) – 从欧洲的角度

2 李港卫 (Conway Lee) 安永中国 零售及消费品业务合伙人
从中国的角度看中国机遇 李港卫 (Conway Lee) 安永中国 零售及消费品业务合伙人

3 中国——充满机遇 中国蕴藏着巨大的机遇 WTO使中国能够参与到全球贸易之中 零售增长势不可挡 影响波及亚洲、全球 鼓励 “国际化”
国内公司面临外来竞争的挑战 对希望在中国建立或扩大业务的国外公司具有吸引力 零售增长势不可挡 2004财年零售额是5.4万亿元人民币，较2003年增长10.2％。 2005财年预计达到5.8万亿－6万亿元人民币，增长8％－11％。 长远来说，13亿人口相等于13亿消费者, 他们对任何商品或服务都有需求。

4 中国——市场吸引力 世界上最大的新兴市场之一 国际化经营的进口基地 小城市蕴藏新的零售机遇 经济持续增长 中产阶级不断扩大
对西方零售服务的需求悄然兴起 国际化经营的进口基地 越来越多的公司从中国采购原材料和产品 小城市蕴藏新的零售机遇 零售商需要瞄准内陆地区和以前较少涉足的城市 诸如大连、福建等 Expanding Middle Class Growing income levels presenting new segments of consumers Rising middle income segment Projected to expand from 5% of China’s population (65 million) to 45% by 2020, 15% CAGR Consumers in most large cities already surpass average consumer consumption levels Education fuelling increased affluence Slow albeit increasing demand for western retail services More travel out of China Young spending more Western brands have a lot of cachet Base of imports for international operations More and more firms source their raw materials and products from China E.g. Carrefour has its international purchasing representative offices in 10 Chinese cities Company procured US$3.2 billion from China last year, up 50% from 2004

5 向内地强劲扩张

6 中国——增长机遇 人民消费持续活跃 快速的扩张和购并 信用卡的不断普及拉动消费 中产阶级出现，消费能力更强，消费档次更高
当前信用卡消费只占中国每年零售总额的0.3％ 中产阶级出现，消费能力更强，消费档次更高 推动零售业的增值服务： 更好的产品/服务质量 更舒适的购物环境 提高消费者的品牌意识 快速的扩张和购并 更多的重组或战略联盟 国内零售商准备好应对“外资入侵”

7 国外公司学习“本地化” 成功的公司采用本地化方式 新零售商进入中国需要打造品牌 网点布局适应当地需求 用穿梭巴士接送顾客
雇佣中国管理团队管理当地业务 公司通过本地化更好地了解市场和顾客 新零售商进入中国需要打造品牌 国内品牌拥有较高的忠诚度 中国消费者品牌意识强，忠诚度高 非品牌产品卖不到好价格 被迫压缩利润来换取自己的产品摆上商店柜台 Successful firms have adopted a local stance to attract Chinese customers Structuring outlets to suit local preferences E.g. Wal-Mart’s fresh food departments reflect local and regional tastes Provision of shuttle buses to reach out to customers E.g. Wal-Mart and Carrefour operate regular shuttle buses that circulate between major housing developments and its stores in cities where mass transit is the dominant form of transport Utilize Chinese management team for local operations Localization enables firm to gain better understanding of the market and consumers E.g. Best Buy has announced that it intends to hire local Chinese leaders to manage the stores

8 灵活应对宏观挑战 复杂的商业环境 应对日益激烈的竞争 零售商争夺最佳地点 复杂的政府机构、法律和规章 放松管制导致很多行业出现激烈竞争
导致价格战和利润缩减 零售商争夺最佳地点 国外零售商在中国难以得到最佳的零售地点 难以快速买到房产，以满足扩张计划 租赁、购买场地或与当地零售商合作都比较困难，可以寻求购并大陆的零售连锁企业 预期的并购潮 Complex business environment Complicated bureaucracies Complex rules and regulations Laws and regulations passed by Beijing are often times interpreted and carried out differently at a municipal/city/province level Lack of uniformity and transparency High levels of governmental involvement at various levels with conflicting aims Challenging at times during business planning and execution

9 零售风险 零售业波动的风险 复杂的市场 与当地合作的风险 零售业过度投资 本地化是关键 中国大陆文化传统多种多样
在每个地区采用不同的理念成为零售商的一大挑战 需要给当地公司更多的自主权 与当地合作的风险 与当地合作企业的矛盾可能阻碍扩张计划 Risks of sector shakeout Possibility of sector over-investment May lead to over capacity, savage cost-cutting and ultimately widespread closures due to declined levels of profit margins Phenomenon observed in the car, consumer electronics industry Complex Market Localization is key China is like a continent - variety of cultures and traditions Challenge for retailers to adapt varying concepts to each area Need to provide more autonomy to local operations Perils of local partnerships Negatives relating to local JV may hinder expansion plans E.g. Inability to agree with expansion plans between OBI and Haier led to dissolution of JV Domestic firms giving foreign companies a run for their money Stepping up expansion plans Talent poaching from foreign retailers E.g. Nearly 50% of middle and senior managers at China Resource Enterprise have once worked for foreign-owned retailers

10 成功因素 公司需要： 了解中国不断变化的经济 更好地了解中国不断扩张中的零售行业 认识到中国的市场是多元化的
知晓中国复杂的财务结构、法律和规章 识别和控制内外部风险 考虑与当地公司的合作 Note: These are key points highlighted in the latest Thought Leadership article: “ The Path to Success for Retailers and Consumer Brands in China”.

11 杰伊·麦金托什 (Jay McIntosh) 美国零售及消费品业务总监
从美国的角度看中国机遇 杰伊·麦金托什 (Jay McIntosh) 美国零售及消费品业务总监

12 中国：双重视角 我们通过零售及消费品客户的目光来考察中国 是全球制造商的采购基地 是零售及消费品公司的市场机遇
We look at China from two perspectives.

13 中国：全球制造商的采购基地

14 2004假日市场分析 消费物价指数和所选假日商品的通货膨胀/紧缩 变化比例 期间 消费物价指数 消费电器 玩具 服饰 珠宝 体育用品
与上年同月相比的变化比例 -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 2000年12月 2001年12月 2002年12月 2003年12月 2004年12月 期间 变化比例 消费物价指数 消费电器 玩具 服饰 珠宝 体育用品

15 市场篮子每季变化 零售品和消费物价指数的年度通货膨胀/紧缩 与上年同月相比 2005 over 2004 for all items
4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 通货膨胀 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 -1% -2% -3% 服饰 2005 over 2004 for all items 5 years cumulative for all items 食品饮料 -4% 家具饰品 消费物价指数 -5% 年 年2月每年通货膨胀/紧缩水平的变化

16 商品价格 所选商品生产物价指数的年度通货膨胀 2000-2004每年的通货膨胀水平变化比例 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 通货膨胀
谷物 35% 钢铁 30% 棉花 25% 20% 通货膨胀 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year 每年的通货膨胀水平变化比例

17 中国：市场机遇

18 零售业概览 2005年前4个月零售总额达到1.98万亿元人民币
2004财年零售总额是5.4万亿元人民币，较2003年增长10.2％ 美国2004年零售总额（除了汽车及零部件）达到3.1万亿美元，较2003年的2.9万亿美元增长9％ Conversion (done on an annual average): CNY 5,400,000,000,000 CNY 4,900,181,488,203 $652,427,727,868 $592,021,042,135 or $652.4 billion or $592.0 billion What are retail sales in ’04 china and how does that compare to US Retail sales have decelerated somewhat, but are still expected to grow 12-15% per year over the next few years. Surging areas include sales of telecommunication equipment and construction/home-related goods About 90% of the Chinese market are focused on value segments [do you mean: 90% of Chinese retailers are in the value sector? Or 90% of the market (because of income) are targets for the value segment?] Most of the brand-building activities of foreign companies have been focused on the affluent…leaving the value market underserved and underpenetrated Government currently attempting to foster more organized growth in the retail sector by establishing “directional markers” for the retail sector to follow. Certain types of formats are being encouraged, including convenience stores, discount stores, middle and small-multi-stores, warehouse-type supermarkets, specialized stores and boutique stores. Government is also trying to promoted centralized distribution. The long history of investment spending has created enormous inefficiencies. [I don’t know what this means – please elaborate] Foreign retailers will have new hurdles to overcome (such as??) , although co-existence in a fast-growing market seems possible The Ministry of Commerce has announced new guidelines for the classification of the retail sector which will be implemented from 1 October The national standards have been modified to allow clearer definitions on the 17 retail business models and gives an indication on how the Ministry envisions China's retail industry to be structured. China has been actively preparing itself for the expected influx of competition as a result of the lifting of restrictions on foreign retailers from December 11, This current development as well as the prior announcement of the selection of twenty domestic retailers hand-picked to receive preferential policies and treatment from the authorities clearly shows the commitment China has in developing its retail sector. For E&Y, this development translates to opportunities for us to: > Approach international clients who may be keen to enter the domestic retail scene to help bridge the divide > Engage in conversations with existing clients to re-examine expansion plans into these service sectors > Leverage off internal retail knowledge to steer clients through this rapidly changing environment > Provide advisory services to local authorities on how best to manage changing retail environment on issues such as risks, maximization of tax returns etc. Telecom equipment & construction home-related goods likely to be strongest [need supporting points/stats here] Expected growth in retail spending by category: Telecommunications equipment: 41.7% Building and decoration materials: 27.1% Motor vehicles: 23.4% Cultural and office goods: 22.7% Furniture: 21.8% Apparel, textiles and accessories: 18.7% Food, beverages, tobacco & liquor: 17.9% Consumer electronics: 13.7%

19 零售业一览 2003年除汽车外的零售总额按国家排序 （单位：10亿美元） 排名 国家 市场规模 1. 美国 2,861 2. 日本 980
3. 中国 566 4. 英国 406 5. 法国 389 Notes: By 2008, there may some shifts and changes occurring among the top 10 largest global retail markets: • China threatens Japan. By 2008, China will approach Japan as the world's second biggest retail market, nearly doubling its current size to approach $1 trillion in annual retail sales. • Russia rises. Russia is forecast to break into the top largest retail markets, surpassing Spain to become at least the world's ninth largest retail market. Russia's retail market is forecast to double in size by • India closes gap. India's fast-growing retail market is forecast to approach Italy's slow-growing market by 2008 as it loosens restrictions on foreign ownership of retail stores. • Big incremental gains. Other than China, Russia and India, the biggest incremental gains in retail markets will occur in the big markets of the United States, United Kingdom and France, where moderate-to-strong growth will generate sizeable volume gains over the next five years.

20 零售业一览 预计零售业增长突飞猛进 商务部预测2010年零售总额突破8万亿元人民币（9630亿美元）
中国政府预测零售总额年均增长9％，2020年突破20万亿元人民币，是2003年的4.3倍

21 零售业概览 对有价值的市场服务不到位 政府期望零售业的增长是有秩序的 鼓励特殊的零售形式 集中配送

22 零售业概览 高度分割的市场 中国的前30家零售商创收3846亿元人民币(较2003年增长33％) 这些零售商： 占中国零售总额的7.1％
经营13,801家分店 (比2004年增长23.8%) 包括8家国外零售商，在前30家中零售额占比22％，销售网点占比25％ By contrast, in the U.S. Wal-Mart comprises 8% of non auto retail sales Moreover, the fragmented structure of the country-wide market remains anomalous with Western models, with the top five operators accounting for just 2.0% of market share, against the 20-50% slice that is usual in developed economies. (AC Nielsen data)

23 中国前5家零售商 人民币 美元 1. 百联集团 67.6 8.2 2. 北京国美 23.9 2.9 3. 大连大商集团 23.1 2.8
2004销售额－10亿 人民币 美元 1. 百联集团 67.6 8.2 2. 北京国美 23.9 2.9 3. 大连大商集团 23.1 2.8 4.苏宁电器连锁集团 22.1 2.7 5.家乐福（中国） 16.2 2.0 资料来源：新华社, 2005年2月8日 提示: 1美元 = 8.28元人民币

24 展望 零售增长集中在重点城市 中国的高收入城市，如上海、北京、天津和南方的广州，人均消费额最高

25 展望 瞄准3大城市（北京、上海和广州）的年青消费群和专业人士 财富的集中化使零售商可以识别和更有效地瞄准重要消费群
这些市场中外资云集，新的民营企业遍地开花 财富的集中化使零售商可以识别和更有效地瞄准重要消费群

26 展望 地区市场增长缓慢 原因部分在于经济增长率低于重点城市 供应链的问题 建立有利可图的特许经营模式存在许多困难
从贷款严格的国内银行融资存在很多问题

27 展望 农村富裕人群：未开辟的市场 预计越来越多的零售商走入省内城镇，捕捉新的市场机遇 内陆地区相对欠发达、竞争不强

28 展望 零售存货将更加复杂 中国消费者高度关注价值 缺乏国内经验的国外零售商在准备存货时，难以判断哪种产品会受欢迎

29 展望 超市和大型卖场将取代传统的百货商店 消费者积极追捧 “新的零售形式” ，将推动更多超市和大型卖场的涌现。
发展的速度由中国的政府机构掌控。 Have concerns of over-capacity of retail outlets

30 展望 围绕消费者来增加配送和采购 在策划不同的零售理念和对消费品进行市场推广时，需要考虑巨大的收入差异
熟悉消费者及其生活方式将成为关键的竞争优势

31 美国的零售模式

32 零售 销售越来越集中在最大的零售商中 美国零售商普遍囤积存货 整合行动不断 自营商标增加 高效的供应链是关键
通货膨胀正卷土重来；许多种类的商品应该降低价格 零售商必须拥有多种渠道 全球化市场对于原料采购和新兴市场来讲非常重要 Consolidation continues among mid-range department stores Retailers are differentiating themselves from competitors through private label products that will give them better margins Global markets both for sourcing and new store expansion will grow in importance primarily for large mega retailers whose powerful cash flows can fund such ventures The consumer marketplace is becoming bifurcated between upscale and middle and lower income consumers; Uncertainty of social security and rising cost of healthcare may prompt consumers to save more for retirement could depress retail sales and consumer spending

33 大型零售商/折扣商 零售增长最迅猛的部分 小型地区性连锁店正在关门倒闭 关注流行甚于价格，效果良好 一元平价店正在苦苦挣扎
自营商标和低成本是关键 关注流行甚于价格，效果良好 一元平价店正在苦苦挣扎 其他零售商仿效一元平价店的策略 Large mass merchandisers continue to be the primary “agents of change” in the retailing industry—influencing consumer products companies and retailers alike and in the process causing overcapacity issues for many less popular retail formats. Simply building new stores will only exacerbate the problem, and retailers are also aware that a merger or acquisition is no panacea and can create huge problems in integration and strategic planning. The fastest-growing retail segment; value retailing is dominating all other retail segments Smaller regional chains are being liquidated; assets may be acquired by stronger chains or stores may be converted to other purposes Development of strong private label programs is a key strategic element, along with a lean cost structure Some mass merchandisers are focusing more on fashion, rather than just price, with positive results Despite soaring sales based on low cost and convenience, dollar stores are struggling as lower income consumers are disproportionately affected by higher fuel costs Some dollar stores are focusing on consumables and going more upscale. Other retailers continue to emulate dollar store strategy with mini-dollar-store sections

34 奢华品的零售 奢侈品零售商2004年获利颇丰，有望在2005年呈现继续增长的势头

35 网上零售 未来数年预计呈两位数增长 增长基于 多渠道零售战略非常重要 有利于零售商进行创新 网络成为重要的配售渠道
多数网站普遍改进其服务设施，如更好的导航、隐私保护和订单履行 方便顾客 多渠道零售战略非常重要 有利于零售商进行创新 消费者可以在网上创建一个房间，更换内部的家具 在购买商品进行装配前，消费者可以在网上阅读说明，以判断装配的难度 网络有利于零售商与消费者的互动 The Internet is very much a part of retailing and integral to many retailers’ business model. The Internet complements in-store merchandise selection and help consumers with inquiries about products. Customers can return goods at the stores as well as through the mail. Internet sales should continue to grow rapidly. In 2004 total online sales rose 26% to $66.5 billion according to eMarketer. Continued double digit gains are expected in coming years, as retailers discover new and innovative ways to service customers on the web. Growth of e-tailing is based on: Its emergence as a key distribution channel Improved infrastructure of most sites, e.g., better navigation, privacy control and fulfillment Customer convenience Developing a clear multi-channel retail strategy is becoming more important as consumers increasingly expect retailers to be integrated across distribution channels. The Internet allows retailers to be innovative in how they sell products: Consumers can create a room online and change the furniture Before purchasing an item to be assembled, consumers can look at the instructions online to gauge the degree of difficulty The Internet allows for an interactive exchange with consumers

36 全球采购 渴望差异化 零售商搜遍全球以获得最优价格 有效的采购系统和网上“交易” 加快了这种趋势 新兴市场对全球零售巨头的吸引与日俱增
中国、俄罗斯、巴西和印度 安全和保安问题浮出水面 Craving differentiation Ultra-competitive market is increasing focus on private label goods and “destination” brands Retailers eliminating the middleman, working directly with manufacturers on private label programs Retailers shop the world to get the best prices A number of large retailers are significantly increasing—even doubling—their imports annually or biannually Also establishing direct sourcing hubs around the world to get better deals Effective eprocurement systems and Internet “exchanges” are fueling this trend Companies get best prices for non-merchandise items through reverse auctions and centralized shopping Emerging markets are becoming more and more attractive to global mega-retailers. In some cases, growth in overseas market is a necessity because of the maturity of a retailer’s home market. But only the biggest and most efficient retailers will be able to take advantage of emerging markets. Risks include the efficiency of the retailer’s supply chain, cultural and political concerns, and financial stability. Only a small number of retailers and consumer products companies can truly go global” because of constraints on financial resources and problems with adapting to different cultures and operating conditions As retailers continue their global push, many are rethinking their sourcing strategies, looking to leverage global scale to enhance efficiencies The biggest growth opportunities for many retailers and consumer products companies are emerging markets, particularly China, followed by Russia, Brazil and India Safety and security issues mount as supplies chains become more global and fragmented As supply chains become increasingly global and fragmented, retailers and consumer products companies must ensure safety and security within their stores, on web sites, and in overseas operations Security and safety issues are uppermost in consumers minds since 9/11 Corporate accounting scandals also raised awareness of security Health hazards such as Mad Cow disease, SARS, and avian flu have increased awareness of health risks in supply chains

37 远离购物商城的地点 更多的零售商选择远离购物商城的地点经营 顾客到那里是购买而不是逛街 未来趋势——小商店服务于年长者
More retailers are experimenting with off-mall locations in high-growth suburban areas Off-mall stores give retailers more flexibility in site selection and the opportunity to move a little faster into growth areas Sales per gross leasable area (GLA) has consistently increased Trend strongest among department stores Sears’ off-mall push, Sears Essentials, combines the best of a regular Sears store with everyday consumer items for one-stop shopping. Bloomingdale’s unique new SOHO location Customers at off-mall stores are there to purchase, not shop—making direct marketing more efficient Future trend—smaller sized stores that appeal to older consumers

38 总结和学到的经验 More retailers are experimenting with off-mall locations in high-growth suburban areas Off-mall stores give retailers more flexibility in site selection and the opportunity to move a little faster into growth areas Sales per gross leasable area (GLA) has consistently increased Trend strongest among department stores Sears’ off-mall push, Sears Essentials, combines the best of a regular Sears store with everyday consumer items for one-stop shopping. Bloomingdale’s unique new SOHO location Customers at off-mall stores are there to purchase, not shop—making direct marketing more efficient Future trend—smaller sized stores that appeal to older consumers

39 托马斯·哈姆斯 (Thomas Harms) 零售及消费品中欧地区总监
从欧洲的角度看中国机遇 托马斯·哈姆斯 (Thomas Harms) 零售及消费品中欧地区总监

40 从欧洲的角度看中国 中国是零售及消费品业界的热门话题 “苏醒的巨人” “到本世纪中叶中国将取代美国成为世界最大的经济体”
“欧盟贸易委员与中国纺织谈判代表商讨出口纺织品的激增” “资本是最大的障碍……投资回报的时间太长” We look at China from two perspectives.

41 中国是第二大贸易伙伴 1999年至2003年，中国与欧盟25的贸易额翻了一番 主要贸易商品是制成品 德国是中国在欧盟成员国中最大的贸易伙伴
出口从196亿欧元飙升至412亿欧元 进口从524亿欧元飙升至1053亿欧元 欧盟的贸易逆差从328亿欧元上升至642亿欧元 主要贸易商品是制成品 德国是中国在欧盟成员国中最大的贸易伙伴 Conversion (done on an annual average): CNY 5,400,000,000,000 CNY 4,900,181,488,203 $652,427,727,868 $592,021,042,135 or $652.4 billion or $592.0 billion What are retail sales in ’04 china and how does that compare to US Retail sales have decelerated somewhat, but are still expected to grow 12-15% per year over the next few years. Surging areas include sales of telecommunication equipment and construction/home-related goods About 90% of the Chinese market are focused on value segments [do you mean: 90% of Chinese retailers are in the value sector? Or 90% of the market (because of income) are targets for the value segment?] Most of the brand-building activities of foreign companies have been focused on the affluent…leaving the value market underserved and underpenetrated Government currently attempting to foster more organized growth in the retail sector by establishing “directional markers” for the retail sector to follow. Certain types of formats are being encouraged, including convenience stores, discount stores, middle and small-multi-stores, warehouse-type supermarkets, specialized stores and boutique stores. Government is also trying to promoted centralized distribution. The long history of investment spending has created enormous inefficiencies. [I don’t know what this means – please elaborate] Foreign retailers will have new hurdles to overcome (such as??) , although co-existence in a fast-growing market seems possible The Ministry of Commerce has announced new guidelines for the classification of the retail sector which will be implemented from 1 October The national standards have been modified to allow clearer definitions on the 17 retail business models and gives an indication on how the Ministry envisions China's retail industry to be structured. China has been actively preparing itself for the expected influx of competition as a result of the lifting of restrictions on foreign retailers from December 11, This current development as well as the prior announcement of the selection of twenty domestic retailers hand-picked to receive preferential policies and treatment from the authorities clearly shows the commitment China has in developing its retail sector. For E&Y, this development translates to opportunities for us to: > Approach international clients who may be keen to enter the domestic retail scene to help bridge the divide > Engage in conversations with existing clients to re-examine expansion plans into these service sectors > Leverage off internal retail knowledge to steer clients through this rapidly changing environment > Provide advisory services to local authorities on how best to manage changing retail environment on issues such as risks, maximization of tax returns etc. Telecom equipment & construction home-related goods likely to be strongest [need supporting points/stats here] Expected growth in retail spending by category: Telecommunications equipment: 41.7% Building and decoration materials: 27.1% Motor vehicles: 23.4% Cultural and office goods: 22.7% Furniture: 21.8% Apparel, textiles and accessories: 18.7% Food, beverages, tobacco & liquor: 17.9% Consumer electronics: 13.7%

42 欧盟25与中国的贸易 中国在欧盟成员国中最大的贸易伙伴 (百万美元， 2003年) 出口 进口 差额 1999 2003 欧盟25
德国 6948.7 法国 3217.0 4683.8 5918.9 9585.1 意大利 1834.3 3852.6 5001.4 9547.0 英国 1837.5 2785.8 荷兰 767.1 1675.5 4650.7 欧盟25的对外贸易额汇总 中国占比 689434 3% 882982 5% 746613 7% 940591 11% -57179 - 57609 Notes: By 2008, there may some shifts and changes occurring among the top 10 largest global retail markets: • China threatens Japan. By 2008, China will approach Japan as the world's second biggest retail market, nearly doubling its current size to approach $1 trillion in annual retail sales. • Russia rises. Russia is forecast to break into the top largest retail markets, surpassing Spain to become at least the world's ninth largest retail market. Russia's retail market is forecast to double in size by • India closes gap. India's fast-growing retail market is forecast to approach Italy's slow-growing market by 2008 as it loosens restrictions on foreign ownership of retail stores. • Big incremental gains. Other than China, Russia and India, the biggest incremental gains in retail markets will occur in the big markets of the United States, United Kingdom and France, where moderate-to-strong growth will generate sizeable volume gains over the next five years.

43 欧盟25与中国的贸易 欧盟25与中国的产品贸易 （百万美元，2003） 1679.2 3733.2 2192.5 3770.2 -513.3
出口 进口 差额 1999 2003 合计 主要产品： 1633.8 2262.4 2713.7 3811.3 食品和饮料 361.2 529.7 1174.3 1641.0 -813.1 原材料 1056.7 1610.1 1233.5 1489.9 -176.8 120.3 能源 215.9 122.5 305.9 680.4 -90.0 -557.8 制成品： 化学制品 1679.2 3733.2 2192.5 3770.2 -513.3 -36.9 机械和汽车 其他制成品 3104.7 7933.1 其他 394.1 860.2 314.3 314.5 79.7 545.7 Notes: By 2008, there may some shifts and changes occurring among the top 10 largest global retail markets: • China threatens Japan. By 2008, China will approach Japan as the world's second biggest retail market, nearly doubling its current size to approach $1 trillion in annual retail sales. • Russia rises. Russia is forecast to break into the top largest retail markets, surpassing Spain to become at least the world's ninth largest retail market. Russia's retail market is forecast to double in size by • India closes gap. India's fast-growing retail market is forecast to approach Italy's slow-growing market by 2008 as it loosens restrictions on foreign ownership of retail stores. • Big incremental gains. Other than China, Russia and India, the biggest incremental gains in retail markets will occur in the big markets of the United States, United Kingdom and France, where moderate-to-strong growth will generate sizeable volume gains over the next five years.

44 为什么中国是关注的焦点 消费支出下滑 欧盟15国的成熟市场 掠夺式竞争 囤积存货 聚焦价格和折扣 混合零售方式 赢利缩水
增长主要来自国外：集中在东欧和亚洲

45 纺织品配额争端 根据WTO规定，全球纺织品配额在2005年1月1日取消。 纺织品特别保护条款限制2008年之前从中国的进口
欧盟为了保护当地纺织品生产商采取了临时的进口限制 欧盟与中国的外交部和欧洲零售业团体发生争端

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