2012 Presidents’ Forum 2012年主席论坛

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1 2012 Presidents’ Forum 2012年主席论坛
President, CITA 中国工程机械工业协会工业车辆分会 会长 President, Beijing Materials Handling Engineering & Research Institute 北京起重运输机械设计研究院 院长 Lu Daming 陆大明 Oct, 2012, Kyoto Japan 2012年10月 日本 京都

2 AGENDA本次演讲内容： I Macro-economic Development in China 年中国宏观经济形势 II. Industrial Truck Market in China 中国工业车辆发展状况 III. Characteristics of China’s Industrial Truck Market in Recent Years and the Development Prospects 中国工业车辆行业近年的市场特点和发展前景

3 I. 2012 Macro-economic Development in China
2012年中国宏观经济形势 The European debt crisis, the hard landing for emerging market, the recent turbulence in Middle East and North Africa. 欧债危机、新兴市场“硬着陆”以及中东北非局势动荡 In the developed countries, the general Macro-economy policy tends to be flexible. 发达国家：宏观经济政策普遍趋于宽松 In the emerging market, “spur growth” policy is clearer. 新兴市场：“保增长”的政策主调更加明确 Global economy recovery is still lack of energy, the economy grew at low speed. 世界经济复苏动能依然缺乏，经济将呈现低速增长态势 发达国家 新兴市场

4 China’s economy is in the medium phase of deleveraging and has not reached the bottom, thus the development may take longer than expectation. 中国经济正处于去杠杆化中期，探底过程尚未结束，时间可能会比想象的长。 Due to the overall moderate policy of China, the further growth trend is not visible. 中国总体政策偏稳健，进一步积极的特性并不显著。 The consumption growth is hard, profit in most enterprises is poor, 消费增长乏力，企业盈利不佳的情况普遍存在 Number of employees in industrial enterprises keep decreasing. 工业企业用工人数同比增速持续下滑。 It takes time to reduce the production capacity, conquer financial risk, and change economic growth mode. 去产能、 消化金融风险、 转变增长方式需要时间 中国经济机遇与挑战并存

5 Remark: 2011 GDP - revised figure, 2012 GDP - preliminary reading
GDP Growth Rate 2011 Q Q1-Q Q1-Q Q1-Q Q Q1-Q Q1-Q3 Remark: 2011 GDP - revised figure, 2012 GDP - preliminary reading

6 China's consumer price index % Change
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept. Oct Nov Dec. Under the dual-pressure of weak economy activity and possible price rise, the current macro control in China is progressing along a narrow balance beam. In this situation, the decision maker must balance the relation between stable growth and inflation control with proper policies, and strengthen the coordination and cooperation among currency, finance and industry policies. 在经济活跃度依然羸弱，而物价则可能再次抬头的双重压力下，目前中国的宏观调控正行进在一条狭窄的平衡木上，这要求决策者一方面在政策力度上需要更好地把握稳增长与控通胀之间的关系，另一方面在政策组合上，加强货币、财政和产业政策的协调配合。

7 Growth Rate of Fixed Asset Investment (Non-agricultural)
Month

8 China’s Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)
Jan Aug Mar Oct May Dec July Feb Sept. Manufacturing Non-manufacturing

9 China’s Economic Growth Path
中国经济发展方向 Continue to strengthen and improve macro-control policy, implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy to maintain stable and rapid economic growth. 继续加强和改善宏观调控,实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，促进经济平稳较快发展  Press ahead to optimize and upgrade the industrial structure and energy saving and emission reduction, increase the investment in technology renovation and innovation to realize sustainable development. 推进产业结构优化升级和节能减排，加大技术改造和技术创新投入力度，实现可持续发展 Concentrate on stabilizing overall price level, put effort into safeguard and improve people's livelihood to ensure harmony and stability of the society. 着力稳定物价总水平,大力保障和改善民生,保障社会和谐稳定

10 2.中国工业车辆发展状况 Sales of Industrial Trucks in Global Market
Sales of Industrial Trucks per Continent Europe America Asia Africa Oceania 2011 H H1 World industrial trucks: the sales has been recovered since 2010, in 2011, it has been further increased to the level before the financial crisis. Every continent gain slight increase in 2012, the growth in America is higher than the other continents. 世界工业车辆：2010年开始恢复后，2011年基本回到了金融危机前的水平，2012年上半年各洲均略有增长，美洲增长好于其他各州。

11 Sales Situation for Domestic Manufacturers
2012 H1 Sales Units Growth Rate Affected by economic slowdown in China, the domestic sales of powered industrial trucks in 1st half of 2012 dropped significantly compared to the previous two years, which represents a decrease of 9.11% compared to the same period last year. 受中国经济增长放缓的影响，境内机动工业车辆销售量相比前两年的增长下滑明显，2012年上半年相比去年同期下降9.11%。

12 China Industrial Truck Market in 2010 – Aug. 2012 (Order Intake)
2010年-2012年8月中国市场订单量变化情况 Units In 2010, the order shows smooth development, While, in 2011, it is a high to low trend, The down trend remained in the 1st half of 2012, then it turns to have some improvement in the 3rd quarter, It is predicted that the 4th quarter will better than the 3rd quarter, The overall china’s forklift truck market will reach 215 thousand to 220 thousand units, around 7% decrease compared to last year. 2010年订单比较平稳，2011年前高后低，2012年前半年下滑，进入三季度开始走平，预计四季度会略好于三季度，全年中国市场的销售量会在21.5到22万台。相比去年同期下降7%左右。

13 Changes in the Proportion of IC and Electric Trucks
内燃与电动比例变化情况

14 Changes in the Proportion of WH and CB Trucks
仓储叉车与平衡重叉车变化情况

15 3.中国工业车辆行业近年的市场特点和发展前景
3. Characteristics of China’s Industrial Truck Market in Recent Years and the Development prospects 3.中国工业车辆行业近年的市场特点和发展前景 Market 从市场看 : Currently, the market is still in the phase that labor is replaced by machine. Most users have comparatively low demands. Price is still the primary factor for their selection. 市场目前还处于用机器代替人工的阶段，多数用户需求层次不高，价格成为选择的首要因素。 In the previous years, the industry grew rapidly. Enterprises in the industry speeded up their development and improve production capacity. 前几年增速快，业内企业加快发展、提高产能。 Because forklift truck provides services in various industries, it is not affected by policy and economy environment as serious as other construction machinery industry. Many construction machinery tycoons and Automobile enterprises join forklift truck industry for further development. 由于叉车服务于各个行业，相比其他工程机械行业受政策、经济环境影响相对较小，吸引了多家工程机械巨头和汽车行业企业的加入。 The above three points lead to severe market competition and profit decline of the enterprise. 以上三点造成了市场竞争异常激烈，企业利润下滑。 Truck type 从车型看 ： Electric forklift truck maintain growth. The main reason is the increasing demand for low emission Counter balance truck and warehouse truck in China market. We expected that in the future there will be a very good development. 电动叉车有所增长，主要原因是中国市场对低排放平衡重车和仓储叉车的需求进一步增长，预计在未来也会有很好的发展。

16 Industrial truck market will continue its good development prospects
未来工业车辆将继续有好的发展前景 Current status: China’s logistics industry is still under the developing phase 现状：物流业处于发展阶段 Development direction: enhance overall modernization level of circulation. 发展方向： 全面提升流通现代化水平 Supporting Policies: 政策 Major objectives by 2020 2020年主要目标 Regional logistics network structure is not reasonable.区域物流网络布局不合理 Urban and rural development is not balance. 城乡发展不均衡 Informationize, standardization, and internationalization levels are low. 信息化、标准化、国际化程度不高 low efficiency and high cost. 效率低、成本高 Make people’s life convenient, guarantee goods quality, guide production and development and spur resident’s consumption. 围绕方便群众生活、保障商品质量、引导生产发展和促进居民消费 enhance circulation efficiency, accelerate the development mode transformation in circulation industry提高流通效率、加快推进流通产业发展方式转变 concentrate on solving the key problems restricting the development of circulation industry着力解决制约流通产业发展的关键问题 reduce circulation cost effectively有效降低流通成本 Establish and perfect circulation network planning制定完善流通网络规划 Strengthen land support for circulation industry加大流通业用地支持力度 Improve financial and financial supporting policies 完善财政金融支持政策 Deduct taxation of circulation industry. 减轻流通产业税收负担 Reduce circulation cost 流通环节费用 Improve efficiency and reduce costs.提高效率、降低成本 the ratio of total social logistics cost and GDP reduced obviously. 全社会物流总费用与国内生产总值的比率明显降低 Strengthen system construction. establish national backbone circulation network, build up a batch of trade centers, professional markets with strong radiation ability, as well as national and regional distribution centers. 加强体系建设，构建全国骨干流通网络，建设一批辐射带动能力强的商贸中心、专业市场以及全国性和区域性配送中心。

17 Thanks for your attention! 谢谢关注！
Welcome to China by the end of Oct. 2013 欢迎各位2013年10月底到中国