Metal Market Outlook 年金属市场展望

Presentation on theme: "Metal Market Outlook 年金属市场展望"— Presentation transcript:

1 Metal Market Outlook 2011 2011年金属市场展望
Judy Zhu 朱慧 Commodity Analyst 商品分析师 December 年11月 1

2 Commodity – A History of Booms and Busts 商品-一段繁荣与衰败的历史
There have been two commodity super-cycles in the last 150 years. 在过去的150年里，曾经出现过两次超级牛市 The first, from 1800s-early 1900s, was driven by economic growth in the US. 从1800年到1900年初，第一次超级牛市收益于美国的经济腾飞 The second, from , was driven by the post-war reconstruction of Europe and the economic expansion of Japan. 从1945到1975， 第二次超级牛市受益于二战后欧洲的重建和日本的经济起飞 Since 2000 commodity demand has been driven by Asia. 从2000年开始，亚洲成为大宗商品的需求的主要推动力 Urbanization and industrialization is central to commodity demand. 城市化和工业化是需求的核心 A growing middle class means substantial increases in commodities demand, but performance of individual commodities over the course of the super-cycle will be differentiated by production, supply responses and investment plans. 不断扩张的中产阶级意味着大量增长的商品需求，但是各品种的表现还将取决于供应和投资需求 2

3 Energy and Urbanization 能源和城市化
Per-capita energy consumption and urbanisation rate (1980 vs. 2009) 人均能源消费和城市化率，1980年与2009年对比 西班牙 马来西亚 伊朗 南非 希腊 中国 埃及 印度 泰国 越南 Sources: US DOE EIA and United Nations

4 Prices react differently in cycles 商品价格在超级牛市中表现各异
Nickel and aluminium in 2010 prices (tonnes) Oil and wheat in 2010 prices (bbl and bushels) Sources: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research

5 Changing Middle Class 不断变化的中产阶级
Numbers (in millions) and share (percentage) of the world’s middle class 全球中产阶级人数（百万）和占总人口的比例（百分比） 2009 2020 2030 North America 北美 338 18% 333 10% 322 7% Europe 欧洲 664 36% 703 22% 680 14% Central and S. America 中南美 181 251 8% 313 6% Asia Pacific 亚太 525 28% 1,740 54% 3,228 66% Sub-Saharan Africa 非洲（撒哈拉以南地区） 32 2% 57 107 Middle East and North Africa 中东和北非 105 165 5% 234 Sources: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research

6 Spending by the Middle Class 中产阶级的支出
Spending by the world’s middle class (millions of 2005 PPP dollars) 中产阶级的支出（百万美元，2005 购买力平价） 2009 2020 2030 North America 北美 5,602 26% 5,863 17% 5,837 10% Europe 欧洲 8,138 38% 10,301 29% 11,337 20% Central and S. America 中南美 1,534 7% 2,315 3117 6% Asia Pacific 亚太 4,952 23% 14,798 42% 32,596 59% Sub-Saharan Africa 非洲（撒哈拉以南地区） 256 1% 448 827 Middle East and North Africa 中东和北非 796 4% 1,321 1,966 Sources: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research

7 Overview of global economy 全球经济总揽
GDP indicates headwinds amid recovery y/y % GDP 显示经济复苏遇到暂时阻力 IP indicates Asia is stronger y/y % 工业产出显示亚洲更强 Sources: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research 7 7

8 Global economy rebounds from low levels; though growth rates flatten out between May-September 虽然5-9月间经济增长率未能继续上升，但全球经济已从低位显著回升 Global PMIs 全球采购经理人指数 NAPMPMI Index PMITMEZ Index SEASPMI Index CPMINDX Index Source: Bloomberg 8 8 8 8 8

9 China still leads the world (I) 中国仍然引领世界（1）
China’s shares in world commodities consumption, % 中国占全球商品消费的比重 铜 锌 铝 铅 钢 大豆 原油 Sources: CRU, Standard Chartered Research 9 9

10 China still leads the world (II) 中国仍然引领世界（2）
China’s contribution to the world commodities consumption growth, 2010, % 中国对全球商品消费增长的贡献， 2010年，% 铜 铝 铅 锌 原油 Sources: CRU, Standard Chartered Research 10 10

11 Our core macro views on China 我们对中国宏观经济的预测
2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F GDP growth, % 14.2 9.6 9.1 10.0 8.5 9.0 CPI, % 4.8 5.9 -0.7 3.2 5.5 (peak in June, previous 4.0) 3.0 Current account, % of GDP 经常项目 10.6 5.8 USD-CNY (end of period) 7.31 6.825 6.827 6.59 6.20 (6% y/y) 5.95 FX reserves, USD bn (increase) 外汇储备 1,529 (462) 1,946 (417) 2,399 (453) 2,750 (350) 3,150 (300) 3,650 (150) 1-yr base loan rate, % 1年期基准贷款利率 7.47 5.31 5.81 (1 hike before end of year) 6.56 (3 hikes before end of H1) 11 11 Source: Standard Chartered Research

12 East normalising policy rates faster than the West 利率东方比西方恢复得更快
*Please note that this map is for illustrative purposes only; Hong Kong denotes 3M HIBOR; Singapore denotes 3M SIBOR Source: Standard Chartered Research 12

13 The dominance of macro factors 宏观因素对商品的影响
Commodity price correlations with macro factors are high, 20-day rolling 商品价格与宏观因素的相关性高，20天滚动 商品指数与标准普尔500 商品指数与美元指数 Sources: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research 13 13

14 Commodity indices 商品指数
Key commodity indices Sources: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research 14

15 If you invest, here’s your portfolio performance 如果你已经投资，那么一下就是你的投资回报
Agricultural products and previous metals outperform, ytd %, 3rd December, 2010 农产品和贵金属领涨 Sources: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research 15

16 Investor interest is picking up 投资者兴趣显著提升
CFTC net non-commercial positions, futures and options, ‘000 contracts 净多头寸， 期货和期权 原油 黄金 铜 玉米 大豆 Sources: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research 16

17 Base Metals Outlook 基本金属展望
Focus on liquidity and flows, not fundamentals 未来的焦点集中在资金流向上，而不是基本面 Supportive macroeconomic trends 宏观趋势是支持金属价格的 Economic growth to reach 3.4% in 2010; then 2.7% in 2011 and 3.1% in 2012 2010年全球经济增长3.4%， 2011年2.7%， 2012年3.1% Low global interest rates – fiscal adjustments will limit the scope for rate rises 全球利率 – 货币工具的应用将会限制利率上升的空间 US quantitative easing 美国量化宽松政策 Auto and construction sectors – a mixed picture 汽车和建筑领域喜忧参半 China strong but modest slowdown expected 中国仍然保持强势，但放缓是意料之中的 Investor inflows 资金流向 Survey data – next 3 years; 65% plan to increase commodity investments 调查显示，未来3年，65%的投资者计划增加商品投资 Reasons – portfolio diversification; inflation hedge; performance 理由 – 投资组合，通胀，过去表现 Bullish for most commodities 我们对大部分金属保持乐观 Recent tumble indicates that volatility has risen massively 最近价格的暴跌显示市场的波动性大幅上升 LMEX London Metals Index heads toward record high following recent tumbles 继最近的暴跌之后，伦敦金属指数还在向历史新高迈进 Sources: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research 17 17

18 Base metal prices – a selective recovery 基本金属价格表现差异
Index of 3-month prices, January 2005=100 Sources: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research 18 18

19 Inventory explains relative performance 金属的库存解释了价格的差异
Price behaviour through recovery 价格指数 LME inventory 伦敦库存 Sources: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research 19 19

20 Aluminium market will remain in surplus in 2011 2011年铝市场仍将供应过剩
Demand – surprisingly strong 需求强劲 German vehicle market is booming 德国汽车市场火爆 US shipments up 37% y/y in Sep; Japan up 9% 9月美国和日本的船运均同比上升; China – car sales accelerate in Sep; but primary aluminium imports remain low at 8kt 9月中国汽车销售再次加速，但是原铝进口保持低位 Global demand growth of 17% in 2010; 8% in 2011我们估计2010年全球需求增速为17%， 预计2011年为8% Supply – expect a response 预计供应将会继续增加 China up 28% y/y in Jan-Oct, but high power prices and outages are limiting upside 中国1-10月原铝产量同比激增28%， 但趋高的用电成本将会限制未来产量上升的空间 Disruptions affect ROW – Canada, India, Spain, but should improve going forward 其他国家被动减产，但随着时间的推移产量将上升 Global supply growth of 12% in 2010; 6.5% in 2011我们估计2010年全球供应增速为12%， 预计2011年为6.5% Market outlook 市场展望 Inventory levels to remain very high in the next few years – a potential pressure on prices 未来几年，库存仍将保持高位，对价格有一定压制作用 Market to remain in surplus in 2011, but the magnitude should narrow 2011年市场总体仍将保持过剩，但过剩的量将减少 Price forecast to slightly rise o USD 2,213/t in 2011, before further rising to USD 2,300/t in 2012 我们预计2011年价格将相比2010年略微上升到2,213美元/吨（均价），2012年上涨到2,300美元/吨（均价） 20 20

21 Aluminium: inventory is not a problem… just for now 铝：库存暂时不是问题
Price and inventory 价格和库存 Days of use are falling 库存可用天数下降 We care more about usable stocks Sources: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research Sources: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research 21

22 Physical market 现货市场 Physical metal premiums start to ease back, suggesting consumers are reluctant buyers (USD/tonne) 现货升水开始回落，提示消费者购买兴趣下降 Source: Bloomberg

23 Demand leads supply 需求领先于供应
Demand growth leads supply, % y/y 需求领先于供应， 同比 Capacity utilization has been falling from June 产能利用率从6月开始下降 Sources: CRU, Standard Chartered Research 23

24 Aluminium supply growth will fall short of demand growth 铝的供应增速将落后于需求增速
Demand growth to outpace supply during – 2014 2010到2014年间，需求增速将超过供应增速 Regional demand, monthly 月度地区需求 Sources: CRU, Standard Chartered Research 24

25 Lead – the outlook is bright 铅-美好前景
Price and inventory 价格和库存 Lead has been a laggard in 2010 due to market oversupply 2010年，铅的表现相对落后 LME stocks have been rising 伦敦库存上升 Non-reported stocks in China are known to be large, evidenced by shrinking imports (Jan-Oct imports fell 86% y/y) 中国的隐性库存貌似很大。1-10月进口同比下降86% Demand is picking up, particularly in China 需求上升，在中国尤其明显 Demand in the US and Europe will lag behind Asia 美国和欧洲的需求将落后于亚洲 Primary production will respond to the demand recovery, but will be limited by a lack of raw materials and a shortage of smelter capacity outside China 受需求好转的推动，原生铅的产量上升，但未来的增长将受到原料供应和中国以外地区冶炼产能的限制 Secondary lead output will be limited by intense scrap supply 再生铅的产量将受废铅供应的限制 We expect a deficit from 2011 and price should trend higher我们预计，铅市场将从2011年开始出现短缺，价格将由此进一步上升 Days of use 库存可用天数 Sources: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research 25

26 Supply concerns firstly due to demand 供应忧虑首先源于需求
Sees deficit from 2011 市场从2011年开始出现短缺 Annual regional demand shows China is the leader 年度地区需求显示中国领先于其他市场 Sources: CRU, Standard Chartered Research 26

27 Vehicle drives lead demand 汽车推动铅的需求
Growing vehicle output lifts the use of lead-acid battery, % y/y, 3mma 汽车产量提升铅蓄电池的使用，同比，三个月移动 Global vehicle sales support output growth, % y/y, 3mma 汽车销售支持汽车产量上升，同比，三个月移动 美国 中国 巴西 美国 中国 巴西 Sources: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research 27

28 Refined lead output is limited by raw material supply 精炼铅产量受制于原料供应
Limits from mine output and secondary output. ‘000 tonnes 来自于矿山产量和再生产量的双重限制, 千吨 Mine output’s contribution to total output is falling, % 矿山产量对精炼铅总产量的贡献正在减少， 百分比 原生铅 再生铅 原生铅 再生铅 Sources: CRU, Standard Chartered Research 28

29 Zinc: to remain an underperformer 锌：表现仍将逊于其他金属
Price and inventory 价格和库存 LME 3-month zinc price underperforms in 2010 伦敦三月锌价表现弱于其他金属 Demand is recovering, with galvanized steel sector improving 需求正在好转，镀锌板产量恢复 Inventories remain high, which will likely cap price gains锌的库存仍然很高,将对价格的上升产生一些阻力 Refined output faces temporary problems (Canada & China) but should improve going forward 精炼锌产量暂时面临一些问题，但最终都会解决 We expect surplus to continue in 2011 but the market will be tightening towards H 我们预计锌的供大于求会持续到2011年， 但是从2011年下半年开始供应将会逐渐趋紧 In 2011, zinc is likely to under-perform the base metals complex with fundamentals remaining mixed going forward, but liquidity-driven buying might benefit zinc and the tightening fundamentals should provide support to prices 2011年，由于基本面喜忧参半，锌总体上仍将弱于其他金属， 但资金对商品的追捧将会惠及锌，同时趋紧的基本面将对价格产生一定支撑 Days of use 库存可用天数 Sources: Bloomberg, CRU, Standard Chartered Research 29

30 The consumption picture 消费图谱
Global consumption 全球消费 Asian consumption 亚洲消费 Sources: CRU, Standard Chartered Research 30

31 Galvanized sheet production 镀锌板产量
Galvanized sheet production increased quickly, % y/y 镀锌板产量增加很快， 同比 US galvanized sheet shipments rebound with the exception for summer 除去夏季，美国镀锌板船运回升 Sources: CRU, Standard Chartered Research 31

32 Nickel – capped by excess capacity 镍-产能过剩产生的压力
LME 3-month nickel prices rose 27% ytd 2010 on improving demand from the stainless steel sector and problems at major producers, despite excess stock overhang 伦敦三月镍价2010年以来上涨了27%， 受益于不锈钢产业的好转和主要镍生产商的减产。库存仍然巨大。 The supply side is particularly price sensitive, with a substantial reaction likely 镍的供应方面对价格十分敏感。镍价上升可能对产量产生刺激作用。 We expect production by Canada to gradually increase in the coming months 我们预计加拿大的产量未来将会逐增加 Nickel pig iron output should ramp up quickly in China, threatening the use of primary nickel 中国的镍生铁产量也会随之上升，从而对电解镍的使用产生抑制作用 With demand picking up, we expect the global nickel supply and demand to be broadly balanced in the next 6 months, with supply slightly outpacing demand towards H 我们预计未来6个月全球镍的供需仍将保持总体上的平衡，2011年下半年有可能产生温和的供应过剩 Nickel price gains will likely be capped by massive inventory and increasing output 镍价的涨幅将受制于大量库存和产量增加 Price and inventory 价格和库存 Days of use 库存可用天数 Sources: Bloomberg, CRU, Standard Chartered Research 32

33 Global primary nickel output has grown quicker 全球电解镍产量增长加速
Surplus will re-emerge from 2011 2011年将重现供应过剩 Global output and consumption, % y/y 全球产量和消费，同比 供应变化 需求变化 过剩 Sources: CRU, Standard Chartered Research 33

34 Regional primary nickel output 地区电解镍产量
Regional output shows China, Russia, Japan and Canada are the biggest producers， ‘000 tonnes 地区产量显示中国， 俄罗斯，日本和加拿大是生产大国， 千吨 Sources: CRU, Standard Chartered Research 34

35 Stainless steel output experienced seasonal headwinds in Q3 2010年三季度不锈钢产量遭遇季节性回调
Robust recovery in stainless steel output temporarily halted in Q3, % y/y 不锈钢产量的坚挺复苏遭遇暂时的阻力，同比 Sources: CRU, Standard Chartered Research 35

36 Tin: struggling with supply shortage 锡：在短缺中挣扎
Global mined tin output fell 9% y/y in Q3, limiting the output of refined tin, leading to persistent declines in inventory 2010年第三季度全球矿山产量同比下降9%，限制了精炼产量，从而拉低了库存 LME stocks have fallen 42% ytd 2010，indicating severe deficit 2010年初迄今，伦敦库存已经下降了42%, 提示市场上短缺严重 Mine output will continue to be limited, with the production outlook for DR Congo and Indonesia remaining negative in the next 12 months. 未来12个月，矿山产量仍然有限，特别是刚果（金）和印尼的产量前景堪忧 World demand should continue to improve despite concerns about substitutions given high prices. 尽管有更多使用替代品的可能， 未来全球需求应能继续上升。 With demand growth outpacing production growth, the tin market deficit is likely to expand in 年，随着需求增速超过供应增速，锡市场的短缺将进一步扩大 We expect tin to outperform 我们预计锡的表现将好于其他金属 Price and inventory 价格和库存 Supply and demand, % y/y 供应和需求，同比 Sources: Bloomberg, CRU, Standard Chartered Research 36

37 Our base metal price forecasts (LME 3-month) 我们对于基本金属价格的预测（LME三月）
Period average Market close (03 Dec) Q3-2010 Q4-2010 Q1-2011 Q2-2011 Q3-2011 Q4-2011 2010 2011 2012 Aluminium 铝 USD/tonne 2,319 2,108 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,250 2,184 2,213 Copper 铜 8,725 7,282 8,300 8,100 8,400 8,700 7,482 8,375 8,750 Lead 铅 2,340 2,064 2,400 2,450 2,550 2,600 2,170 2,500 2,650 Nickel 镍 23,500 22,000 21,500 22,500 21,489 23,000 Tin 锡 25,550 20,561 25,500 24,000 24,500 25,000 26,000 20,307 24,875 Zinc 锌 2,219 2,043 2,350 2,180 2,375 Source: Standard Chartered Research 37

38 Our forecasts on non base metal commodities 我们对于非金属商品的预测
Period average Market close (03 Dec) 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2010 2011 2012 WTI crude oil 原油（WTI) USD/barrel 89 76 85 87 92 93 80 90 95 ICE Brent 原油（布伦特） 91 77 88 94 Coal API4 煤炭 USD/t 108 102 106 101 111 Gold 黄金 USD/oz 1,411 1,228 1,350 1,300 1,375 1,475 1,450 1,221 1,400 1,200 Corn 玉米 USD/bushel 557 421 550 535 525 549 424 536 526 Source: Standard Chartered Research 38 38

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