Theory of International Trade

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1 Theory of International Trade
国际贸易理论 主讲：俞斌 Mobile:

2 An Introduction to International Trade
Chapter 1 An Introduction to International Trade 国际贸易（国际经济学）绪论

3 textbook 教材 About the author:
Dominic Salvatore, Ph.D., is Distinguished Professor of Economics and Department Chairman at Fordham University in New York. He is a Fellow of the New York Academy of Sciences and Chairman of the Economics Section. Professor Salvatore is consultant to the United Nations, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Economic Policy Institute, and several banks and international corporations. He received many awards including the City University of New York's "Achievement Award." Professor Salvatore has published 34 books, among which International Economics, 6/e (Prentice Hall, 1998) is the leading international text in the United States. Professor Salvatore has published over 100 articles in leading economics journals and has given more than 150 lectures around the world and was Visiting Professor at the Universities of Vienna, Rome, and Trieste and at the Central Bank of China. He is a regular contributor to several leading financial newspapers. McGraw-Hill authors represent the leading experts in their fields and are dedicated to improving the lives, careers, and interests of readers worldwide Prof. Dominic Salvatore Textbook: International Economics

4 《国际经济学》（第8版） （美）Dominick Salvatore 清华大学出版社
《国际经济学》(第6版) （美）Paul R. Krugman Maurice Obstfeld

5 The Goal of International Trade Theory 国际经济学的学习目标
To fashion a theoretical framework that is sufficiently general to allow one to offer explanations of phenomena and to make predictions about international trade. 形成有助于我们解释并预测国际贸易现象的一般性理论框架。

6 A Difficult Start of International Trade in European Countries
When trade appeared in Europe, the number of nations were many more than nowadays. Trade did not bring much wealth to the people when they bought and sold goods among European countries, as the costs of tariff and political policies made the trade very difficult.

7 The Driving Force of International Trade – Spain, Netherlands, UK
The empire on which the sun never sets, made the costs of trade lower, and extended the range of goods worldwide. After 1500, international trade became much profitable and people believe “who is the leading nation once who control the trade”

8 1.1 Importance of International Economics
When we purchase a HP laptop, a Ford car or LV bag, obviously we buy an foreign (could be imported) good. Often we are not aware that the products we use, or parts of them, were in fact produced abroad. Interdependence among the nations increased dramatically in last 50 years. The large economies actually cannot grow without each other.

9 1.2 International Trade and the Nation’s Standard of Living
A rough measure of the economic relationship among nations, or their interdependence, is given by the ratio of their gross domestic product (GDP). Much more important quantitatively for the nation’s standard of living are many products that could be produced domestically but only at a higher cost than abroad. It is the benefits or gains for the nation’s standard of living from trade. In general, the economic interdependence among nations has been increasing over the years, as measured by the more rapid growth of world trade than world production.

10 Characteristics of National Economies
The extent of economic activity in a country can be most commonly measured by two ways: 一个国家的经济活动程度通常可以有两种方法来测量： ※GNP(国民生产总值） The value of final goods and services produced by domestic factors of production 由本国生产要素创造的最终商品/服务的价值 ※GDP（国内生产总值） The value of final goods and services produced within a country 在某国境内产出的最终商品/服务的价值

11 GDP per capita normally means the living standard
per capita GNP（GDP） 人均GNP（GDP） The ratio of that country’s GNP (or GDP) to its population 一个国家的GNP（GDP）总值与其人口数的比率。 By this standard, countries can be divided into low or middle income countries (developing countries) and high income countries (developed or industrialized countries) 根据人均人均GNP（GDP）来区分低、高收入国家。

12 Exports（出口） Imports (进口） Index of Openness 贸易开放度 A measure of the importance of international trade to an economy, calculated as the ratio of exports and imports over total domestic production. 贸易开放度用于测度国际贸易对某国经济重要程度，以出口和进口占总产出的比例衡量。 出口（进口）依存度 Imported and exported dependence = exports (imports)/ total domestic production

13 what can you get from this table?
Data: FIGURE 1 what can you get from this table? ※Most countries become more open 大多数国家越来越开放 ※Faster growing countries tend to be more open. 快速增长的国家趋向于更加开放 ※Low-income economies remained the most closed 低收入经济体仍是最封闭的 ※Larger economies tend to be more closed. 越大的经济体越趋向于更封闭

14 Figure 1 World exports and output in real terms, What has caused this explosion of world trade? The reduction of Barriers （e.g. transportation and communication cost, government-imposed limits) 贸易壁垒的减弱引起了国际贸易激增

15 Figure 1.02a Geographic pattern of merchandise trade:
Geographic pattern of merchandise trade:1965 and 1997

16 Figure 1.02b Geographic pattern of merchandise trade:
Geographic pattern of merchandise trade (continued)

17 2011 World Imports and Exports
2011 World Trade Volume (imports and Exports): USD 28,580 billion China holds 10.5% of the World’s Trade. 2011 World Trade Volume and China’s Position (Unit: USD Billion)

18 The Characteristics of International Trade
industrialized countries account for the bulk of world exports and imports. 发达国家在国际贸易中处于主体地位。 distance plays a role in trade directions. (country tend trade extensively with their neighbors) 距离在国际贸易中起作用（各国与其邻国的贸易较为广泛）

19 What goods do countries trade
※good trade 商品贸易 The most commonly traded goods tend to be capital goods, raw materials, semi manufactured goods and agricultural products. 最主要的贸易商品：资本商品、原材料、半成品、农产品。 Countries tend to import raw materials or partially manufactured products and then complete the manufacturing process before marketing a good. 许多国家通常进口原材料或者半成品，经加工后再投放市场。

20 ※Service Trade 服务贸易 Transportation 运输 Travel 旅游
Other service( banking, health, consulting, insurance, and education) 其他（银行，保健，咨询，保险，教育）

21 Why commodity structures of Japan and U.S are so different?
Table 2 Why commodity structures of Japan and U.S are so different? The availability of resources 可获得资源的不同导致美日不同 的商品结构 export import Japan Manufactured products Food, raw materials, fuel U.S. Manufactured products, raw materials,food Fuel, tropical products, Manufactured products

22 1.3 The subject matter of International Economics
International Economics focuses on International Trade Theory International Trade Policy Foreign Exchange Market and Balance of Payment Open-economy macroeconomics International economics has enjoyed a long, continuous, and rich development over the past two centuries, with contributions from some of the world’s most distinguished economists, from Adam Smith to David Ricardo, John Stuart Mill, Alfred Marshall, John Maynard Keynes, and Paul Samuelson.

23 1.5 Current International Economic Problem
1.5A Trade Protectionism in Industrial Countries 1.5B Excessive Fluctuations and Large Disequilibria in Exchange Rate 1.5C Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economics 1.5D High Structural Unemployment and Slow Growth in Europe and Stagnation in Japan 1.5E Job Insecurity from Restructuring and Downing in US 1.5F Restructuring Problems of Transition Economics 1.5G Deep Poverty in Many Developing Countries

24 1.6 Organization and Methodology of the Textbook
Part One (Chapters 2-7) deals with international trade theory. Part Two (Chapters 8-12) deals with international trade policies. Part Three (Chapters 13-15) deals with the balance of payments, foreign exchange markets, and exchange rate determination. Part Four (Chapters 16-21) examines the various mechanism for adjusting balance-of-payments disequilibria, which are often referred to as open-economy macroeconomics.

25 Information 新资讯 全球经济复苏受阻于贸易保护主义
国际贸易在2010年出现较快增长，全球货物出口额增长22%。 2011年在世界经济继续复苏、通胀预期强化和主要商品价格上涨等因素共同作用下，国际贸易延续上年较快增长态势，一季度全球货物出口额同比增长22%。进入二季度以来，受日本地震导致国际产业供应链受损、美欧等经济复苏乏力、主权债务危机不断恶化等因素影响，全球货物贸易大幅放缓。据经合组织（OECD）统计，七大工业国和金砖五国二季度进口总额增速仅为1.1%，远低于一季度的10.1%；出口总额增速则为1.9%，低于一季度的7.7%。其中，美国二季度进口增速从一季度的11.1%放缓至3%，出口增速从5.6%降至2.6%。 世界贸易组织（WTO）预计，2011年全球货物贸易量实际增长率将只有5.8%。亚太发展中经济体2011年的出口增长可能比上年减少将近一半，从超过17%跌至9%。

26 Information 资讯 2010年、2011年和2012年，贸易保护主义将会抬头，中国目前已是世界贸易摩擦的重灾区。
1980～1989年，我国被诉反倾销64起，占世界反倾销案总数1388起的4.6%； 1990～1999年，我国被诉反倾销306起，占世界反倾销总数2321起的13.2%； 2000～2009年，我国被诉反倾销586起，占世界反倾销总数2225起的26.3%，其中2005～2009年，我国被诉反倾销338起，占世界反倾销总数974起的34.7%。