Presidents’ Forum 2011年主席论坛

Presentation on theme: "Presidents’ Forum 2011年主席论坛"— Presentation transcript:

1 Presidents’ Forum 2011年主席论坛
President, CITA 中国工程机械协会工业车辆分会 会长 President, Beijing Materials Handling Engineering & Research Institute 北京起重运输机械设计研究院 院长 Lu Daming 陆大明 September 2011, Miami 2011年10月 迈阿密

2 AGENDA演讲内容 I. China’s Macro-economic Situation under the New Circumstances 新形势下的中国宏观经济形势 II. Development of China’s Industrial Truck Market中国工业车辆发展状况 III. Development Trend of China’s Industrial Truck Market 中国工业车辆发展趋势

3 WORLD ECONOMIC SITUATION
I. China’s Macro-Economic Situation under the New Circumstances 新形势下的中国宏观经济形势 Complex world economic situation, and miscellaneous economic factors see slow recovery, with fluctuating curve. 今年世界经济运行形势非常复杂，诸多因素导致世界经济复苏缓慢，而且是波动曲折。 主要经济体经济增速比较低，复苏进程步履蹒跚，失业率居高不下；新兴市场国家的资产泡沫或通货膨胀风险。 The major economics slowdown with faltering global economic recovery; the unemployment rate remains high; the increasing risk of property bubbles and inflation among emerging economics Whole 整体 WORLD ECONOMIC SITUATION 世界经济环境 美国经济复苏步伐放缓，欧洲的主权债务有所深化，中东、北非的动荡 Sluggish economic growth in the US; worsening sovereign debt crises in Europe; turbulence in Mid-East and North-Africa Part 局部 地质灾害和一些国家由于经济衰退导致的骚乱、暴力事件 Geology disaster; riots and violence incidents caused by recession in some countries Incident 突发

4 The opportunity and challenge of China’s economy
The economic development is now shifting to self-initiated growth from previous overheated expansion spurred by the economic stimulus 经济增长由前期政策刺激的偏快增长向自主有序增长转变。 The opportunity and challenge of China’s economy 中国经济机遇与挑战并存 There are many advantages for the development, every participants engaged in works with highly motivated, for a economic development. Especially as the 1st year of the 12th Five Year Plan, every industry have strong desire to accelerate forward. 发展的有利条件较多，各方面发展的积极性很高，经济发展动力充沛，特别是‘十二五’开局之年各行业加快发展的愿望很强烈。 This year‘s economic policies - “two prevents”: to hold down inflation, and to prevent the fast-growing economy from being overheated 同时，控制通胀与保持经济平稳较快发展的“两难”问题是今年的主要问题。

5 GDP in China 100 Million RMB 2011 H1 Growth Rate %

6 Consumer Price Index (CPI)
2009-July 2011

7 China’s Fixed Asset Investment in Urban Areas
中国城镇固定资产投资 100 Million RMB China’s Fixed Asset Growth Rate H1 Investment in Urban Areas

8 China’s Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)
July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug

9 China’s Economic Growth Path
中国经济发展主要方向 Continue to and improve Macro-economic control, maintain sustainable implement a prudent fiscal policy and stable monetary policy to strengthen and rapid growth. 继续加强和改善宏观调控,实施积极的财政政策和稳健 的货币政策，促进经济平稳较快发展 Speed 速度 Structure结构 Prices物价 Strengthen the adjustment of the industrial structure, promote energy saving and emission reduction, raise the investment in the technology improvement and innovation, and realize sustainable development. 推进产业结构优化升级和节能减排，加大技术改造和 技术创新投入力度，实现可持续发展 He said the report will cover issues such as how China can complete its transition to a market economy; how to promote open innovation; how to advance green development; how to deliver equality of opportunity and social security to citizens; how to strengthen the fiscal system, and how China can become a responsible stakeholder in the international system. During his stay in China, Zoellick also visited the country's wasteland-turned-grain-producing-base in the northeast, including a farm, a rice mill, an agricultural research center and a modern agricultural machinery park, and learned about how this land transformation had affected local people's lives. As the world population is expected to hit 9 billion by 2050, Zoellick said the World Bank has been urging G-20 countries to prioritize food issues. "China feeds 20 percent of the world's population with less than 10 percent of the world's agricultural land and less than six percent of its water, so China could make a significant contribution to global food security," Zoellick said. To keep the overall level of prices stable, protect and improve the resident’s livelihood, and guarantee the harmonious and stable society. 着力稳定物价总水平,大力保障和改善民生,保障社会 和谐稳定

10 1 2 3 II. Development of China’s Industrial Truck Market 中国工业车辆发展状况
Logistics enter a new stage of rapid development 物流业进入快速发展新阶段 Factors in Logistics Development 诸多因素促使物流业发展 1 2 3 需求增加 Increase in Demand 政策驱动 Policy-driven 提高水平 Level-up The rise in national economy volume, optimized economic structure, and better living conditions 国民经济总量的增长、经济结构的优化和人民生活水平的提高， 2009:《 Revitalization Planning for Logistics Industry物流业振兴规划》 2011:《Eight Measures to Boost Logistics推动物流业发展的八项措施》 Still in the primary stage of development, which cannot totally satisfy the requirement for national economy development. Still far away from the developed countries. Need to find our way out. 仍然处于初级阶段，还不能够完全适应国民经济发展的需要，与经济大国差距很大，函待解决。

11 Sales of Industrial Trucks in Global Market
世界各大洲销售情况 Sales of Industrial Trucks per Continent (2010 H1 & 2011 H1) 2011 H1 Sales Units Growth Rate The sales of world industrial trucks has been recovered since 2010, and maintains the increasing trend in 2011 世界工业车辆的销量，2010年开始恢复，2011年保持了增长。 2010 H H1 Europe America Asia Africa Oceania

12 Sales Situation for Domestic Manufacturers
units Sales units Growth rate 2011 H1

13 Sales and Growth Rate of China Industrial Truck Market in 2010 & 2011 H1
units Growth rate Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July

14 Sales Situation in China Market
上半年销售128,209台预计 全年销售23万台 同比增长18% 128,209 units in HI, forecast 230,000 units in 2011, 18% growth 193,531台 同比增长68.34% 193,531 units, Growth by 68.34% 1 2 3 4 110,957台 110,957 units 114,964台 同比增长3.60% 114,964 units, growth by 3.6% 2008 2009 2010 2011 中国市场销量 Sales Situation in China Market After global financial crisis, the sales of domestic market created new historical records in two successive years, the supporting to the underdeveloped areas and manufacturing industry gather to cluster in western China…all these show the strong demands for the industrial trucks in China market. 金融危机后国内市场销量连续两年创历史记录，欠发达地区发展、制造业向西部转移。。。。。决定了中国市场对工业车辆的需求仍然强劲。

15 三、中国工业车辆发展趋势 The Old and New Problems for China’s Forklift Truck Industry 中国工业车辆行业发展存在的老问题和出现的新问题 Old Problems 老问题 New Problems 新问题 The over-rapid growth makes the duplicated construction and homogeneous competition even worse; 增长速度过快，加剧了重复建设和同质化竞争； The competitiveness is weakened, owing to the up price of raw materials, RMB’s appreciation, and the increase of labor force cost. 原材料价格上涨、人民币升值、人工成本上涨，竞争力有所减弱； The technology improvement is not synchronized with the output development. The product structure adjustment and upgrade should be further strengthened; 技术进步与产量发展不同步，结构调整和升级还需进一步加强； Due to years of severe homogeneous competition, there is no basis of technology development and innovation. We are still far away from the advanced world levels. 连续多年的同质化竞争使得技术、创新没有发展的土壤，与世界先进水平仍然保持较大的差距； The key components are still relying on import; 关键零配件还是依赖进口； The domestic manufacturers face many difficulties in the export caused by trade protection and trade barrier. 贸易保护和贸易壁垒使企业出口遇到诸多困难 Lack of professional experts in this industry. 专业型人才短缺。

16 Development Trend of China’s Industrial Truck Market
中国工业车辆发展趋势 The improvement of logistics efficiency, labor force to be replaced by machine, the development of the western regions and the acceleration of urbanization process, etc. 物流业效率提升、机器代替人工、西部开发、城市化进程等等 The demand for FLT will be further increased 工业车辆的市场需求量还会增加 1 low-carbon and environment protection, the development in warehousing industry. 低碳环保、仓储业发展 The proportion of Electric Trucks will higher year after year 电动叉车比例会逐年提高 2 Local market: the increasing user requirement for the operating environment and product performance International market: The Competitiveness is weakened, owing to the up price of raw materials, RMB’s appreciation, and the increase of labor force cost. 国内市场：用户对使用环境、产品性能的要求提升； 国际市场：原材料价格上涨、人民币升值、人工成本上涨，竞争力有所减弱 The production structure in the domestic manufacturers must be adjusted 国内生产企业需要产品结构调整势在必行 3