How is it changing the world? Participants views…学员观点…

Presentation on theme: "How is it changing the world? Participants views…学员观点…"— Presentation transcript:

1 Growth with Social Justice: lessons from global economic crisis 保证社会正义的经济增长： 从全球经济危机中汲取的教训

2 How is it changing the world? Participants views…学员观点…
Globalization 全球化 How is it changing the world? 全球化如何改变着世界？ Participants views…学员观点… Picture Source: Kate Raworth, Oxfam presentation on Trade & Human Development

3 Implications of ‘neo-liberal’ policies 新“自由主义”政策的影响
From development cooperation to free trade & for this open markets for trade, investment & capital flows; 从发展合作转为自由贸易、开放市场、贸易、投资、资本流动 More competition between Unequals - High income countries have more than 80% of the world incomes, receive more than 3/4th of the foreign investment and 3/4th of the world trade is between them. 不平等经济体间竞争增加——高收入国家占全球收入的80%强，获得超过3/4的全球外资和3/4的全球贸易。 Equality of “access” equality of “opportunity” “准入”均等≠ “机会”均等 unequal capabilities  unequal outcomes 能力不平等 结果不平等

4 Implications of ‘neo-liberal’ policies 新“自由主义”政策的影响
Withdrawal of ‘State’ from its economic & regulatory role; (markets Know the best, will self regulate ) 撤回“国家”对经济监管的作用（市场最优，会自行规范监管） Redistribution of income towards the rich (privatization, tax policies) 将收入重新分配给富人（私有化、税收政策） Labour flexibility & changing nature of employment relationships – precarious work for youth & women（劳动力灵活性&雇佣关系性质的变化——青年&女性处于不稳定工作状态） Strain on international labour solidarity 给全球劳工团结带来压力

5 Global Economic Crisis 全球经济危机
Result of ‘liberalization’, speculation, greed, widening inequalities & ‘markets know the best’ philosophy “自由化”的结果、投机、贪婪、不平 等加剧及“市场最优”理念 Who is paying the price for it? 谁为此买单？ - What can we learn from it? What needs to be done? 我们可以从中学到什么？需要做什么？

6 Global Economic Crisis: lessons for developing countries 全球经济危机：发展中国家从中汲取的一些教训
Over dependence on exports & western markets 过渡依赖出口及西方市场 For economic & social stability - countries also need domestic markets – how to develop & expand domestic & regional markets? 为实现经济社会稳定——各国也需要国内市场——如何开发拓展国内和区域市场？ Reduce widening inequalities: need for wages & incomes policy in the country to ensure equitable sharing in growth/productivity 弥合不断扩大的不平等：各国需要确保经济增长/生产力发展的成果得以平等分配的工资及收入政策 Labour standards & development: role of right to organize, collective bargaining & social security 劳工标准及发展：组织权、集体谈判权和社会保障的作用

7 Globalization & Inequalities 全球化&不平等
Theory: Rich invest, poor consume – so redistribute income towards the rich to promote growth - and rising tide will lift all boats 理论：富人投资，穷人消费——因此，将收入重新分配给富人，以促进增长——从而水涨船“皆”高 But what has happened? 但现实结果是？ Growth yes but widening inequalities 的确实现了增长，但不平等加剧 Decline in labour’s share of GDP GDP中劳动力的份额下降

8 Population & Wealth Shares by Region (2000) 各区域人口及财富份额（2000年）
the richest 10% own 85% of the global assets (2000). 最富有的10%人口占有全球85%的资产（2000年）。 50% of the world population owns less than 1% of the global assets.全球一半人口占有全球不到1%的资产。 Source: UNU-WIDER

9 China: poverty down, inequality up 中国：贫困减少，不平等增加
between 1981 & 2001, population below poverty line fell from 53% to just 8% (Ravallion & Chen, 2007) 年间，生活在贫困线以下的人口从53%下降到8%（来源：Ravallion & Chen, 2007年） but inequalities increased - Gini Coefficient jumped from 0.32 in 1987 to 0.47 in 2009 但不平等增加——基尼系数从1987年的0.32骤升至2009年的0.47 average per capita wealth in 2010: $17,126 BUT median wealth was just $6,327 - it means wealth created has not been evenly distributed (Source: 2010 Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report) 2010年，人均财富为17126美元，但财富中值仅为6327美元——这意味着创造的财富并未均等分配（来源：瑞信银行2010年《全球财富报告》） Wage share decreases 22 years in a row! (China Daily) Share of wages in GDP dropped to about 37% (2005) from 56% in 1983 工资份额连续22年下降！（来源：《中国日报》）。工资占GDP的份额从1983年的56%降至2005年的37%。

10 Urban v/s Rural Incomes in China 中国城乡收入对比
Source: 城镇居民可支配收入v/s农村居民纯收入（来源：国家统计局）

11 Over dependence on Exports 过渡依赖出口
Almost 60% of final demand for Asian goods comes from developed countries. 对亚洲商品的最终需求约60%来自发达国家。 China: growth comes from investments and exports, household consumption contributed about 1/3rd of GDP in 2010 中国：增长主要来自投资和出口，2010年家庭消费对GDP的贡献率约为1/3。 Exports contributed about 50% to income growth of China (pre-2008) - makes China vulnerable to slowdown in the US & EU. 出口对中国收入增长的贡献率为50%左右（2008年以前）——使得中国易受美国及欧盟经济放缓的影响。

12 Distribution of the wealth generated in export sector (China) 出口创造出的财富分配（中国）
Labour productivity in China has grown by about 20% per year, while real wages grew by less than half - share of wages in value added has been declining 中国年均劳动生产率增幅约为20%，而实际工资增幅还不到10%——增值工资份额一直呈下降态势 2/3rd of the income in Export sector goes to capital (a good part of it to foreign capital), less than 20% goes to labour出口部门收入的2/3流向资本（其中大部分流向外资），劳动力所得不到20% for the economy as a whole, share of wages in GDP fell to about 40% after fluctuating between % in the 1990s - share of wages in export sector is lower than that for the economy as a whole 对于整体经济而言，工资占GDP的份额由上世纪九十年代在50-55%区间内波动下降到约40%——出口部门的工资份额低于整体经济中工资的份额

13 China: what drives growth? 中国：增长的驱动力是？
Main drivers of growth: Investment and Exports - Private consumption low compared to other countries (Wages are the main source of consumption in China) 增长的主要驱动力：投资和出口——私人消费低于其他国家的水平（工资是中国消费的主要来源） If Investment > domestic Consumption, then dependence on foreign markets (Exports) is the only way out to maintain growth – – but can China continue to export at the same rate as in last decade?倘若投资大于国内消费，那么对于外国市场（出口）的依赖则成为保持增长的唯一途径——但问题是，中国是否还能继续保持过去十年同等水平的出口率呢？ If not, then the growth strategy needs a change – what can be done? 如果无法保持，则需转变增长策略——能够做什么？

14 Lessons from crisis: 从危机中汲取的教训：
Need to address unequal income distribution between capital & labour - one of the root causes of global economic crisis, social conflicts and obstacle to China’s growth in future. 需解决劳资之间不平等的收入分配——这是导致全球经济危机、社会冲突的根源之一，还会阻碍中国未来经济增长。 Need to shift from export led to domestic consumption led growth 增长需要从以出口为主导转向以国内消费为主导  need for wage policy & social protection floor aimed at reducing inequalities, keeping wages in line with productivity, to increase disposable incomes, avoid debt financed consumption & promote sustainable growth 需要旨在减少不平等、使工资与生产率保持同步增长的工资政策和社会保护底线，以增加可支配收入、避免举债消费、促进可持续增长。

15 ILO’s Response 国际劳工组织应对之举
Global Jobs Pact adopted in June 2009 –于2009年6月通过 《全球就业协定》 a framework for Decent Work led policies aimed at economic recovery with job creation and the provision of social protection to working people and their families at its core;以体面劳动为基本政策的框架，旨在创造就业、促进经济复苏，其核心是为工人及其家人提供社会保护 Process: Tripartite dialogue with social partners for addressing the crisis & developing national policy response.过程：与社会伙伴进行三方对话以应对危机、制定国家政策作为应对之举 Focus on promoting use of wage policy tools, social protection and employment-led development policies with respect for workers rights 关注重点：促进工资政策工具的使用、社会保护、就业主导的发展政策、尊重工人权利

16 Policies required: 所需政策：
Right to Organize 组织权 Promote Collective bargaining: makes wages more responsive to economic growth & reduces wage inequalities 促进集体谈判：使工资与经济增长更相适应、减少工资不平等 Pro-active Minimum Wage policy - to be regularly reviewed & adapted thru tripartite social dialogue - helps to promote wage floor – ensures sharing in growth 积极的最低工资政策——定期审议、通过三方社会对话制定调整——有助于提高工资底线——确保共享增长成果 Enforce labour contract law 执行《劳动合同法》 Social security for all 人人享有社会保障

17 A word about Tax Policy: 税收政策：
Income of top 20% people is 18 times that of the lowest 20% people (Chinese Academy of Social Science) 20%最富有人口收入是20%最低收入者的18倍（来源：中国社科院） In 2006, salaried persons contributed 60% of the whole tax income, while the rich contributed only 10%. 2006年，领取工资者对税收总额的贡献率为60%，而富人的纳税额只占10%。 Improve the taxation system, and reduce the burden on low income groups – reform tax incentives to corporate sector. 改善税收体系，减轻低收入群体的负担——改革对公司的税收激励机制 Improve the social security coverage in urban and rural families – use tax revenues & dividends of SOEs for social transfers & social investments. 提高城乡家庭的社保覆盖率——将税收收入、国企红利用于社会转移支付和社会投资。

18 Shifting towards domestic market requires also 向国内市场转移还需要：
Human Resource policies to facilitate the industrial restructuring 促进产业结构调整的人力资源政策 Factors of production & investment cannot be easily shifted –role of State in allocation of investment and promotion of skills towards areas that need to expand to meet higher domestic consumption. 生产和投资要素不会轻易转移——国家在分配投资和促进技能人才向需要拓展的领域转移的作用，以满足更高国内消费需求。 Increased public social welfare expenditure on health, education, social protection, especially in rural areas – this would reduce precautionary household savings and increase disposable income.增加社会公共福利支出，包括卫生、教育、社会保护等，特别是在农村地区——这将减少不稳定就业家庭的储蓄，增加居民可支配收入。

19 Economic growth is necessary But not sufficient condition
What is also needed is policies that promote ‘decent work’. 需要促进“体面劳动”的政策。 Decent Employment is the critical link between economic growth and poverty 体面就业是连接经济发展与贫困的关键。

20 Country Situation Review: 国家情况回顾：全体练习 1
List the major changes that have affected (positively or negatively) the employment situation in your country? 列出影响你的国家就业的主要变化因素（积极或消极） What are the factors that prevent unions from playing more effective role in dispute resolution & collective bargaining? (focus on drawbacks in law, capacity of unions, role of authorities) 什么因素阻碍工会在解决争议和集体谈判中发挥更有效作用？（关注法律缺陷、工会能力、政府作用） What policies can improve wage share in Chinese economy? 什么政策可提高中国经济中工资所占比重？ What are main demands of the employers in China? 中国雇主的主要需求有哪些？ What hurdles/difficulties are there in organizing- 1) migrant workers? 移民工人的工会组建存在哪些障碍/困难? 2) Private companies?私有企业的工会组建存在哪些障碍/困难? What are the ‘means’ available to unions to enforce workers rights (especially rights to organize & negotiate)? 如果雇主没有尊重工人权利，那么工会可以采取哪些“措施”来维护工人权利（尤其是组织和谈判的权利）