中国未来发展情景及尽早实现 碳峰值的制度安排

Presentation on theme: "中国未来发展情景及尽早实现 碳峰值的制度安排"— Presentation transcript:

1 中国未来发展情景及尽早实现 碳峰值的制度安排
UNFCCC COP20 Joint Side Event International Insight on China & Supporting Chinese Subnational Governments Achieve Carbon Targets 中国未来发展情景及尽早实现 碳峰值的制度安排 China’s Development Scenarios and Policy Framework for Speeding Up to Achieve Carbon Emissions Peak 王 毅, 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所 WANG Yi, CAS Institute of Policy and Management Lima, 11 December 2014 1

2 报告提纲 Outline 未来中国的排放峰值与情景判断 峰值管理、绿色发展与生态文明制度建设 1
Future Scenarios and Emissions Peaks in China 1 2 峰值管理、绿色发展与生态文明制度建设 Cap Management, Green Development, and Institutional Arrangements for Ecological Civilization

3 中共十八大和十八届三中全会关于生态文明制度建设 Institution Building of EC by the 3rd plenary session of 18th CPC Central Committee 关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定 Decision on Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening Reforms 生态文明建设成为“五位一体”组成部分；实现路径：绿色低碳循环发展 Ecological Civilization (EC) crucial; Path to EC: develop the green, low-carbon and circular economy 重点 Key points 让市场发挥决定性作用 make the market a decisive role for resource allocation 更好发挥政府作用 play the role of government better 用制度保护生态环境 protect the environment based on the institutions 构建生态环境治理体系 build an environmental governance system 突出生态文明制度建设 Highlight the institutional arrangements for EC Balance among Government, Market, and Society; Dilemma: Dev. vs. Environ. Resource management: improve the property right system of natural resource/capital Ecological conservation: set up “eco-redline” Environmental protection: reform of management system / governance and responsibility, the 3rd part participation/PPP Some key institutions/policies suggested, esp., market-based instruments Priorities: price; resource and environmental tax; trading for emissions right/energy consumption cap/energy increment/EE

4 生态文明建设下的发展因素考量 (1) Comprehensive factors for socio-economic development in a context of ecological civilization formulation (1) 国内因素 Domestic factors/issues (interrelated for developing economy) 经济发展：人口增长、工业化、城市化、经济安全、中等收入、新常态 Economic development: population, industrialization, urbanization, economic security, middle income, the new economic normal 社会进步：社会共识、立法进程、就业、地区差距、社会稳定 Social progress: consensus, legislation process, employment, regional disparity, social stability 环境保护：资源能源供应安全，灰霾、水污染、土壤修复，碳减缓、适应 Environmental protection: supply of resource/energy, haze/PM2.5, water pollution, soil restoration, mitigation and adaptation 技术创新与竞争力 Innovation and competitiveness 适应快速的数量和结构变化：投资消费结构，产业结构，中等收入，劳动年龄人口供给等 Fit into with the rapid changes in both scale and structure 实践经验：“十一五”、“十二五”规划节能减排与低碳试点 Experience during 11th and 12th FYPs on energy efficiency and low carbon pilot

5 生态文明建设下的发展因素考量 (2) Comprehensive factors for socio-economic development in a context of ecological civilization formulation (2) 国际因素 International aspect: political, economic, and tech. 减缓和适应义务 mitigation and adaptation obligations 增长贡献：经济复苏、国际分工与产业链 Growth contributions: economic restoration, international labor division and industrial chains 国际绿色经济与转型经验 ，新的国际规则、标杆和标准等 International experience and lessons on green economy and transformation, emerging int’l rules (TPP, TTIP, etc.), benchmark and standards 全球合作 Global cooperation at all round 模型合作开发和改造的难点：快速增长和结构变化，管理不确定性，非价值化因素 Difficulty: rapid growth and structural changes, manage uncertainty 考虑的因素不断增加，需要探讨“社会经济-能源-环境-碳排放-政策”综合情景和均衡模型，以避免出现阶段性判断的失误 Increasing factors considered, equilibrium model and integrated scenario needed

6 中国区域低碳规划与政策模拟模型（PIC+PAC）
The Inter-regional Planning & policy analyzing model (PIC+PAC) 中国区域政策模拟模型：PIC+PAC，考虑“自上而下”与“自下而上”结合，重在 区域间政策分析，由中科院政策与管理所(IPM)、全球环境研究所(GEI)、美国气候战 略中心(CCS)和美国REMI公司共同开发，并列入中美绿色伙伴计划(EcoPartnership)项目 Policy Insight and package of China model: PIC+PAC, top down & bottom up, jointly develop by the CASIPM, GEI, CCS and REMI under the China-US EcoPartnership 基准情景/ Baseline 部门划分及定义 / Sectors 单个政策的成本效益分析 / cost-benefit analysis for policy 政策X具 有什么效力？ 与政策X有关 的政策变量变化 政策变量基线值 控制预测 替代预测 比较预测 PIC模型 模型合作开发和改 造的难点：快速增 长和结构变化，管 理不确定性，非价 值化因素 Difficulty: rapid growth and structural changes, uncertainty management PIC 投入产出 / Input-Output 计量经济/ Econometric 一般均衡/General equilibrium 新经济地理学/neo economic geography 人口、就业、经济增长、可持续性能源、排放、…… Population, employment, economic growth, Energy & emissions, sustainability…

7 基准情景：快速增长及转型 Baseline : China’s fast development
未来中国经济增长将会逐步放缓； 能源排放增长总体上依赖于经济增长，能源增速也将放缓; 在基准情景中，我们没有考虑太多的能效提高和改进。 China's economic growth will gradually slow down in the future; Energy emissions growth is dependent on the overall economic growth； In the baseline, we do not think too much about the energy efficiency and its improvement.

8 政策及情景选择的目标 Targets of policy and policy path design
不同情景下尽早实现碳排放峰值； 控制煤炭消费适时达到峰值（最大的排放来源，同时也是最 便宜的能源之一）； 污染控制和碳减排协同控制； 在可接受的成本之下达到以上目标 Control the CO2 emissions get to a peak as early as possible Control the coal consumption which is the biggest emission source while the cheapest energy in China to a peak at a reasonable timeframe Co-benefit for PM2.5 and Carbon reductions Realize the controls with affordable costs

9 政策选择及其减排效果 Policies option and their emission reductions
能源结构 / Energy Mix (S) 高油情景 / high oil 高煤情景 / high coal 高非化石能源情景 /high non-fossil 能源强度 / Energy intensity 2015年降低16%，至2050年降低50% / decreases 16% by 2015; 50% by 2050 进口依存度 / Import dependency 进口能源占比小于65% / ≤65% 投资消费比重 / Investment-consumption ratio 碳税/Carbon Tax 10 元/吨CO2排放 / ¥10/tCO2 100元/吨CO2排放 / ¥100/tCO2 碳税的再利用/ Use of carbon tax 返还企业 / Return to enterprises 补贴居民 / Return to households 没有一项单一政策可以实现CO2峰值目标 需要进行政策组合 No a single policy can realize the carbon peak Policy mix

10 不同政策组合情景下的碳排放 Carbon emissions by policy mix

11 不同政策组合下的能源密集型产业排放峰值 Emissions Peak of energy-intensive industries by policy mix scenarios

12 政策组合— 趋势及相应峰值区间 Peak value and timeframe by policy mix scenarios
单位 峰值/peak value 达峰时间/Peak timeframe 政策组合/Policy Mix 人口/population Bn. 1.47~1.51 2031~2046 单独二孩政策; 全面二孩政策 煤炭消费总量/Coal consumption Bn. tce 3.33~4.63 2027~2048 高非化石能源+降低能源强度+ 100元碳税; 高油+  降低能源强度+ 10元碳税  能源消费总量/Energy consumption 4.77~6.12 2032~2049 高煤 +降低能源强度+ 10元碳税 高非化石能源+降低能源强度+ 100元碳税 PM2.5 Mn. t 9.62~15.49 2027 高非化石能源+  降低能源强度+ 10元碳税 重工业部门排放/High energy intensive sectors’ emissions Bn. tCO2 4.96~5.04 2032~2034 CO2 emissions 12.15~15.61 高非化石能源+ 降低能源强度+ 100元碳税; 高油+  降低能源强度+ 10元碳税 能源结构+ 碳税：2030年CO2排放总量将减少当年基准情景的 11.3%-33.3% Energy structure + Carbon tax: in 2030, CO2 emission reduced by 11.3%-33.3% 再加上能源强度控制：2050年CO2排放总量将与2015年持平 + energy intensity: In 2050 the CO2 emissions will be at the same level of 2015

13 以可接受的成本实现减排目标 Reducing emissions with affordable costs
选择GDP还是就业? 2030年前，与参考情景相比，不同政策情景模拟结果显示年均GDP损失约在 %左右；2030年后将会产生正效应；2022 年前年均就业减少 %，之后增加就业 通过能源强度调整达峰时间：每提前一年，GDP将多损失2.13%； 通过能源结构调整达峰时间：每提前一年，GDP将多损失2.31% Before 2030, compared with the reference scenario, the simulation of policy-mix scenarios shows that peaking emissions by 2032 could also averagely shave about % of China‘s GDP; employment reduced annually by % before 2022 Adjust peak by Intensity: GDP lose additionally 2.13% for each one year earlier than 2032 By energy structure: GDP lose additionally 2.31% per year

14 中国资源环境峰值组合的结论 Conclusions for peak package simulation
基准情景难以实现碳排放峰值，人口、能耗、排放等峰值相互联系和影响 Peaks of population, energy consumption, and carbon emissions are linked to each other 中国的主要峰值时段：未来10-20年内面临主要资源消耗和污染物排放峰值；多 数模型的可行碳峰值在2030年前后；能源结构调整对碳峰值至关重要 人口总量： 年 煤炭消费总量： 年；阶段性控制目标从“十三五”开始峰值，目标年可争取 2025年 PM2.5排放总量： 年；重点区域可提前 碳排放峰值： 年，峰值年份可争取在2030年，峰值目标在120亿吨以内 Peak timeframe: will reach at peaks of main resource use and emissions in years; the carbon peaks of most models are around 2030; energy mix restructuring crucial for carbon peak Population: (plateau period) Coal consumption: ；target year for peak to strive for: 2025 PM2.5: ；partial region could reach at peak earlier CO2 emissions: ; target year to strive for: 2030 (within 12 Bn. Tons)

15 中国资源环境排放峰值组合的挑战 Challenges for peak package simulation
实现峰值需要综合解决政策方案: 目标+路径+技术+资金+政策+精细管理 Integrated policy solutions are needed for realizing the peaks package: target + roadmap/b-model + tech+ +policy mix + fine management + etc. 创新发展模式 Promote transformation of development pattern with innovation 调整能源结构和减低碳强度是实现碳排放峰值和可持续发展的重要手段 Adjust energy structure and reduce energy intensity are the fundamental way for achieving peaks 碳税、碳市场或其他市场机制可以作为减排的补充手段 Carbon tax, carbon market, and other market-based instruments could work as supplemental ways to reduce CO2 emissions 中国实现碳排放峰值取决于综合成本，如果提前达峰（如早于2030年），不 仅影响国内经济和就业，还可能导致全球社会福利下降 If China reach at the carbon peak earlier than 2030, it would cause the reduction of global welfare (based on MRICES-CINCIA simulation) 不确定性：经济增长、能源结构变化、国际协议、峰值管理能力、数据、模型 偏差等 Manage the uncertainty/risk

16 报告提纲 Outline 未来中国的排放峰值与情景判断 峰值管理、绿色发展与生态文明制度建设 1
Future Scenarios and Emissions Peaks in China 1 2 峰值管理、绿色发展与生态文明制度建设 Cap Management, Green Development, and Institutional Arrangements for Ecological Civilization

17 Building Ecological Civilization and in the New Normal
新常态下的生态文明建设 Building Ecological Civilization and in the New Normal 新常态 the “new normal” economy 中高速增长、低能源弹性？ GDP: 6-7%, energy elasticity: 0.5 ? 经济转型 economic transition 能源转型 energy mix transition 消费模式转变 change of consumption pattern 资源环境影响 resource and environmental impact 生态文明建设 Building ecological civilization 峰值管理对社会经济发展的影响 Impact by resource/coal/emissions cap 新兴绿色产业的支撑 Support by new green, circular, and low-carbon economy 生态文明制度建设下的峰值管理 Cap Management in a context of EC institution: legislation, price/fee/taxation reform, emission trading, etc.

18 碳排放总量管理的制度安排 (1) 立法 Legislation
Institutional Arrangements for the Management of Carbon Emissions Cap (1) 立法 Legislation 环保法修正案 Amendment of Environmental Protection Law 落实重要原则和制度安排 implementation of basic principle and institutional arrangements 制定实施细则 修改大气污染防治法和水污染防治法,起草土壤污染防治法 Amending of air/water pollution prevention and control law, drafting soil pollution law 环境保护税法 Environmental taxation act (inclu. carbon tax?) 气候变化立法 出台人大常委会决定 Voting a decision by the NPC standing committee 列入五年规划 Mainstreaming in the 13th FYP 应对气候变化法（总量、排放权等）及相关条例 Climate change law, related regulations such as carbon market management 核安全法 Nuclear safety law 绿色低碳行业标准、强化知识产权保护和执法 sectoral standard, IPR protection and enforcement; low-carbon product standard, labeling and certification system 强化执法和司法 Strengthening enforcement and justice

19 碳排放总量管理的制度安排 (2) 行政管理体制改革 reform of administration system
Institutional Arrangements for the Management of Carbon Emissions Cap (2) 行政管理体制改革 reform of administration system 统一领导，多部门参与协调 multi-sector involvement 能源和气候变化综合管理部门 Comprehensive/Macro administrative authority for Energy and Climate Change 精细、适应性、风险管理 fine, adaptive, and risk mgmt. 协同控制规划 National co-control action plan 部门协同 multi-sector coordination 区域协同 multi-region coordination 项目协同:能效,污染物,CO2等，multi-pollutant, co-benefit, co- control 能力建设：管理办法、统计、会计、评估、审计等相 关制度 Capacity building

20 碳排放总量管理的制度安排 (3) 创新绿色低碳财经制度：创新投融资机制、市场机制
Institutional Arrangements for the Management of Carbon Emissions Cap (3) 创新绿色低碳财经制度：创新投融资机制、市场机制 Innovative financing institution /with PPP 资源和环境价格改革及征收资源税 Energy price reform and resource tax for fossil energy; carbon tax ? 可再生能源和低碳发展投融资 invest green and low-carbon economy: renewables, e-mobility, etc. 总量限制与排放贸易 Cap & Trade / ETS 经济政策比较研究 Comparative study on market-based instruments and schemes 外部性和公共物品 externality and public goods 国际合作 International cooperation 能源转型 energy transformation 能效技术等 advanced energy efficiency tech, etc. 最佳管理实践 best practice: policy, mgmt., standard, etc. 建立合作平台 building cooperation platform

21 谢谢关注！ Thanks for your attention! wangyi@casipm.ac.cn
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