Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences WB-Italian Trust Fund Project 中国城市空气质量管理综合战略研究 Strategies Approach Integrated Urban Air Quality with Concern Global Climate Change in China Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences 2006年1月

主要内容 (Outlines) : 一、研究背景 Background 二、研究目标 Objectives 三、研究内容 Contents 四、时间安排 Time Schedule 五、预期成果 Expected Outcome 六、经费预算 Budgets

一、研究背景 Background 城市是人类政治、经济和文化活动的中心。改革开放以来，我国的城市建设得到快速发展，城市数量已达到660多座，城市化率由不足20%增长到41.7%。 Chinese cities expended significantly. 2004年监测的342个城市中，仅有132个城市达到国家环境空气质量二级标准（居住区标准），占38.6%。 In 2004, the urban air quality of 38.6% of the monitored cities (342 cities) could meet the second national standard of ambient air quality.

温室气体的排放是空气污染的一个重要方面，它可以导致全球气候变化，从而人类的产生不良影响。 Greenhouse gas emission is one of the important aspects of air pollution in the world. 我国政府高度重视城市空气质量问题的重要性和严重性，采取了积极的控制措施，包括：改善能源结构、污染源外迁、重点污染源末端治理、热电联产等。 Chinese government has been paying a lot of attention to the urban air quality issue.

案例 北京 Case study Beijing 天然气等清洁能源的使用比例不断提高；(Increasing percentage of clean energy) 污染源向市区外迁移，充分利用郊区巨大的环境容量，四环路内已没有大型污染源；(pollution source relocation) 推广热电联产(Closure of small coal facilities and cogeneration additions) 对于发电厂、热源厂、化工厂等重点污染源采取脱硫、脱硝、除尘等严格的末端治理措施。(End- of –pipe)

Air quality in Changing

Effective measures to ameliorate air quality identified Switching coal to clean energy: natural gas, LPG, electricity, etc. In particular, CBM (coal-bed methane) switching in coal-rich cities. Cogeneration expansion to replace small-size coal facilities Energy efficiency through relocation of urban sources (Capital Steel Corporation Relocation)

Emerging issues to address air pollution in cities No national guidelines for various classified cities to stipulate strategies of air quality improvement Lack of fast-responding model to translate emission into exposure, resulting rule-of-thumb prevailing Insufficient retrospective assessment on various strategies to address air pollution Co-benefits of GHG emissions reduction unaccounted from amelioration of air quality (act locally but don’t think globally)

大多数地方城市根据自身特点采取了空气污染治理措施，其中一些城市已 经应用了城市空气质量模式和预报模式 ，如：用于大气污染物问题控制 的箱模式、工业源复合模式、光化学模式和线源模式等。 这些模式多是 基于国外城市的大气质量监测基础数据和预测工作经验建立起来的，而 我国许多城市的自然条件及污染特征与模式原出国城市都可能存在较大 的差异。 Most cities has taken relevant control measures to solve the urban air pollution, and some of them have used the urban air quality model and prediction model, such as box model, industrial source complex model, photochemical model and line source model, and so on. Most of such models were set up based on the air quality data and prediction experiences of overseas cities, and the natural conditions and pollution characters of many Chinese cities are different from those cities where the models applied in. For example, urban air pollution of developed countries mainly from vehicle emission, but most urban air pollution in China is attributed to the coal burning, or the mixing pollution of coal burning and vehicle emission.

各种减排方案分析研究，成本-效能分析开展的还不够充分。没有适当的方法可以将空气污染造成的所有损失费用和控制空气污染物所需的费用进行量化，并通过比较选择出一项或多项污染损失和控制费用之和最小的污染控制方案为实施方案。 The study and analysis of emission reduction and cost-efficiency program has not been completed in China. 实施的多种空气质量控制措施必定可以削减温室气体的排放量，但尚未进行定量的研究 (many countermeasures to address urban air pollution simultaneously bring GHG emission reduction, but barely have been quantitatively accounted)

二、研究目标 Study Objectives 本项目针对中国城市空气质量管理现状与问题，通过对典型城市的案例研究，弄清中国代表性典型城市环境现状与存在的问题，以世行开发的空气质量管理模型为技术手段, 提出国家改善空气质量技术政策 National Technical Policies (guidelines) for Various Classified Cities to Address Air Pollution will be formed, on basis of analysis on background of classified cities through case studies by means of the World Bank developed model entitled “Small Models for Big Problems Integrated Air Quality Management”

建立大气污染物排放与环境空气质量之间的关系、分析各种（类）污染源对大气污染物浓度的贡献； To explore the relationship translating source emissions into exposure 建立大气污染控制措施费用－效益分析方法，通过整体优化确定城市达到环境质量保护目标投资费用最小的组合方案； To determine the methodology of cost-benefit on various programs to address air pollution of classified cities 建立大气污染控制措施与温室气体效果关系的计算方法。 To explore the methodology of GHG emission reduction of air quality amelioration 确立改善空气质量和减少温室气体排放的技术措施/项目 To identify projects to reduce pollutants and GHG emissions

三、研究内容 (Research contents) 中国典型城市污染现状评估 (Evaluation on air pollution at city level) 解决空气污染有效政策和措施的评估 (Assessment on effective regulations and measures to improve air quality in selected cities) 案例研究 (Case study on three typical cities) 筛选和确认有利于解决空气污染和减少温室气体排放的技术(Screening and identification of measures/ projects to reduce pollutants and GHG emissions) 提出国家解决城市空气污染技术政策 (Forming national technical policies to ameliorate air quality for various classified policies) 能力建设(Capacity building and training)

Evaluation on air pollution at city level 中国典型城市污染现状评估 Evaluation on air pollution at city level 利用监测数据，对全国600多个城市分类，分析各类型城市污染变化趋势 Classifying more than 600 cities into various types, analyzing on the pollution trends, on basis of monitored data.

Urban air quality non-attainment remains, severity of high polluted city decreased, but concentration in attainment city increased

选取环境空气质量有明显改善的城市，分析各种成功的政策和措施；同时选取质量恶化的城市，分析其原因 解决空气污染有效政策和措施的评估 (Assessment on effective regulations and measures to improve air quality in selected cities) 选取环境空气质量有明显改善的城市，分析各种成功的政策和措施；同时选取质量恶化的城市，分析其原因 Selecting cities where air quality has been improved dramatically and refining the successful regulations and measures; Meanwhile, analysis on cities where air quality has been worsening

案例研究 Case study on three typical cities SIM-BAQ模式应用于三个典型城市中 Applying SIM-BAQ model to three typical cities to conduct intensive analysis (three cities data will be compatible with Italy funded monitoring projects) 广州　东南沿海，经济发展快，环境压力大，地方财政实力雄厚，代表经济发达城市。 苏州　著名的风景旅游城市，空气质量较好，旅游产业占得比重很大。对其空气质量水平提出了比其它类型城市更高的要求。代表风光旅游地区城市。 西安　历史文化名城，基础略显薄弱，近年来发展速度较快，应在产生大规模污染之前进行有效的防治，代表西部地区快速发展城市。

METHODOLOY 某网格中PM浓度 某网格中PM浓度 SIM-BAQ 输入数据连接 健康影响与估价 PM排放源清单 输出图示范例 (PM and SOx contribution by source; Vehicular emission by vehicle type) 关键管理方案 优化调整

筛选和确认有利于解决空气污染和减少温室气体排放的技术(Screening and identification of measures/ projects to reduce pollutants and GHG emissions) 用成本年均化化方法评价各种技术措施 Evaluation on various technologies through annualized cost method 基于各种对策费用最少化，优化各种技术组合，确定有利于解决空气污染和减少温室气体排放的技术应用率 Determining on penetration ratio of identified economic feasible and market available technologies of pollutants emission and GHG reduction

《国家改善空气质量技术政策》 将案例研究成果作为制订《国家改善空气质量技术政策》的支持依据 Summing up the output of three cities to provide technical assistance for SEPA to stipulate the national technical policies to ameliorate air quality for classified cities

能力建设 Capacity building 管理人员培训 Managers training 出国考查，城市空气质量、先进治理技术、政策的制订过程，政策的保障体系，积累经验 技术人员培训 Technical personnel training 对中国环境科学研究院相关技术人员培训世行空气质量管理模型的使用 对案例城市的相关技术人员进行相似的技术培训

四、时间安排 Time Schedule 本项目计划用时18个月。 It is estimated 18 months for implementing this proposal after approval.

五、预期成果 Expected Outcome 中国城市空气质量及其管理现状的研究报告； Inception report of Strategies of integrated urban air quality with concerned global climate change in China; 不同类型案例城市的空气质量综合管理战略； Report of the case study in integrated urban air quality with concerned global climate change; 城市空气质量管理战略与温室气体减排的相互关系。 The relation between controlling Strategies Approach of Urban Air Quality and reduction of greenhouse emission.

后续行动(Follow-up Activities) 出台《国家改善空气质量技术政策》 Enacting “National Technical Policies (guidelines) for Various Classified Cities to Address Air Pollution” 人员培训 Training program on related governmental officials and technicians at various level

Breakdown of the Budget 六、经费预算 Budgets 本项目需要经费60万美元，详细预算方案如下： To accomplish this research, the total budget is US$600, 000, which US$500, 000 from the World Bank and about US$100, 000 from China. The detailed founding use is listed in the following table. Breakdown of the Budget WB US Dollar 1. Consultant 240,000 2. Equipments 25,000 3. Workshop/Seminar and training (Workshop/Seminar: $10,000 x 3 times=$30,000; Training: 2 times x $8,000 = $16,000) 270,000 4. Administrative fee (including daily operation, communication, print, copy, translation, etc.) 45,000 5. Contingency 20,000 Total 600,000

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