城市化、农地制度与迁移人口社会保障 Urbanization, Rural Land System and Migrant’s Social Security in China 陶 然 徐 志 刚 Tao Ran Xu Zhigang 中国科学院农业政策研究中心 CCAP, IGSNRR, CAS 二OO五九月二十五日

研究背景:中国发展中面临的两个挑战 Motivation: Two Important Trends are Creating Major Policy Challenges for China’s Development 1 从农村到城市的大规模人口迁移 　Large Scale Rural to Urban Migration 2 城市化过程中的土地征用 Large Scale Purchase of Land from Farmers in Suburban Regions

城市化：迁移人口与失地农民 Urbanization, Migration and Dispossessed Farmers 140million 包括： including: 农村-城市迁移人口 Rual-Urban Migrants 9000-9500万 失地农民 Dispossessed Farmers in urbaniztion 2000-2500万 Official Urbanization Rate 140Million Share of Population with Non-agricultural Hukou

城市化过程中的土地征用 Land Requisition in Urbanization 2002年约300万亩，占耕地的0.16% ，300万失地农民。 Around 3 Million mu per year, 0.16% of Arable Land，3 Million dispossessed farmers.

这两个趋势在目前体制下的影响 Impacts of These Trends 大量农村劳动力需要向城市进行永久迁移，但面临困难Rising demand from a large cohort of rural population to find a way to permanently migrate to cities, but face difficulties in doing so 城市化过程中失地农民利益往往难以得到保护 　Dispossessed farmers in urbanization easily undermined 留在农村的人对耕地的需求增加,但土地不得不进行调整 　Increased demand for land of those who are left behind in migration process( they want to improve their lives too)

解决这些问题的重要性 Benefits of Finding a Solution 加速人口城市化的同时保障失地农民的利益 　Promote urbanization while protect the interests of dispossessed farmers in urbanization 城乡差距的缩小和城乡二元社会消解 　Reduce gaps between urban-rural and between migrants and city workers 提高农业生产力 Promote continued high productivity in agriculture

相互联系的两个重大制度改革 户籍制度改革：城市化过程中的迁移人口 Household Registration System (Hukou) Reform 农地制度改革：土地征用与农村内部土地调整 Rural land reform: land requisition in urbanization and rural land reallocation within village.

户籍制度和农地制度改革的重要性 Importance of Hukou and Rural Land Reform 直接关联8000-9000万迁移劳动力，2000-3000万失地农民，2-3亿农村人口，以后还会进一步增加 The reforms relate directly to 80-90 million rural migrants, 20-30 million dispossessed farmers in urban expansion. In total 20-30 million rural population are affected and will increase further in the future.

本报告的目的 Goals of this Presentation 提出一整套渐进性政策组合，改革户籍制度和农村土地制度，促进城乡一体化，改善迁移与失地农民生计，提高农业生产力． Propose an integrated policy framework to reform the Hukou system and rural land system that will promote urban-rural integration, address the livelihood problems of the migrant workers and dispossessed farmers in urbanization

本报告内容 Specific Objectives: Goals of this Presentation 基本事实描述 Lay out the facts 主要政策问题和政策反应 Major Policy Issues and Response 提出一套整体性政策方案 An Integrated Policy Package 财政方案模拟 Simulation of Fiscal Scenario

Migration with China Characteristics 1.大国经济和人口长途迁移 基本事实 Basic facts 人口迁移的中国特殊性 Migration with China Characteristics 1.大国经济和人口长途迁移 Migration in a large country 2. 经济转轨，剩余劳动力与人口迁移 Surplus labor, migration and economic transition

非农就业劳动力结构(2000年,CCAP) Structure of Off-farm Labor(year 2000, CCAP)

非农就业劳动力规模（2000年） Scale of Off-farm Labor

政策问题一：城市化过程中的流动人口 Policy Issue 1 ：Temporary Migration 现有户籍制度下乡-城人口迁移的短期性,单身特点,无法享受城市基本公共服务 Temporary rural-urban migration：floating and individual migrants with no access to urban public services .

城市户口的本质 What does an Urban Hukou Mean Now? 基本社会保障 住房安排 子女就学 Social Assistance Housing Subsidy Equal Access to Urban Public Schools

政策问题二：城市化过程中的土地征用 Policy Issue 3：Land Requisition in urbanization 政府行政审批控制农地转非农。 财政体制改革与地方预算外收入。 3000-4000万失地农民补偿不足, 部分就业困难 China’s urban land requisition system; Fiscal centralization and local off-budget revenue 30-40 million dispossessed farmers,many left under-compensated and unemployed.

政策问题三：农村内部土地行政性调整 Policy Issue 2：Rural Land Administrative Reallocation 原因： 家庭人口变动，外出就业等 REASON: Demographic changes across households, migration, grain quota, agricultural taxes, local cadre rent-seeking. 影响： 农村土地权利无法稳定 农村土地租赁和金融市场发展受限 Negative Impacts on： Land security land-rental market rural financial market

现行政策反应 Current Policy Response 户籍制度改革 民工子女就学 土地调整与新土地承包法 土地征用制度的技术性调整 比较被动，缺乏整体性和前瞻性 Hukou Reform Children’s Education Land reallocation and new land contract law Land requisition Passive，Lack of an integrated policy framework

政策关联性 Policy linkages 农村迁移人口缺乏基本社会保障，住房和子女就学安排，无法逐渐而全面地向城市进行永久性转移 Temporary migration due to lack of social assistance, housing arrangements and equal access in children’s education;

政策关联性 Policy linkages 流动人口即使不愿回乡务农，为规避失业风险，无法放弃农村土地，对农村土地造成调整压力 Lack of urban welfare package makes it difficult for migrants to give up their rural land, which imposes pressures on rural land administrative reallocation;

政策关联性 Policy linkages 征地制度安排无法通过市场机制来发现土地价格，农民利益被侵害和剥夺 Lack of functioning land market in land requisition leads to farmers’ interests undermined

政策关联性 Policy linkages 关键在于建立一个融资机制，为迁移人口提供最低生活保障、子女就学和住房安排等公共服务,这将使得部分迁移人口愿意放弃农地向城市进行永久迁移，而释放土地将可以应对农村内部人口变动。 The key is to establish a financing mechanism to enable city governments to provide the urban Hukou-related welfare package, so that some migrants are willing to give up rural land, which can then be used to accommodate demographical changes within rural areas

政策关联性 Policy linkages 由于农地-非农地转化过程的增值可主要归结于外部效应，考虑城市土地征用时抽取土地增值税，构成为迁移人口福利包的财政基础。 Given land value appreciation in rural-urban land use change can be largely attributed to externality, value added tax on such appreciation can be used to finance the welfare package provided to new permanent migrants into cities

一个可选择的整体性政策组合 An Alternative Policy Package 征地市场化并抽取增值税条件下的城市户口-农地选择 政策目标： 一揽子地渐进解决户籍制度、农地征用制度改革，农村内部土地调整问题 政策对象： 乡-城迁移人口，失地农民，农村留下的农民 Urban Hukou –Rural Land Choice with Land value added tax under land use change Marketization Policy Objective: Permanent Migration Mechanism, Rural Land Tenure Security, Correct for problems in Land Requisition Policy Targets： migrants，dispossessed farmers　 and those who stay in rural

政策组合内容 Content of Policy Package 1) 在农村建立专门土地权益管理机构，并向农民所承包土地（按地块）发放长期土地使用权证。 明确农民对于土地使用、转让和处理的权利； 允许在土地用途不发生从农地向非农用地转换的前提下，土地可以进行转租、转让； 土地使用权证也可以抵押。 1) Set up rural land offices and issue land certificates to farmers;

政策组合内容 Content of Policy Package 2) 为城市流动人口设置（以就业和收入为基础的）迁移准入标准，同时建立与城市户口相关联的城市“户口”福利包，即最低生活保障、子女就学安排和住房补贴 2) Entry Criteria (employment and income) for Obtaining Urban Hukou its associated welfare package

政策组合内容 Content of Policy Package 3) 在自愿的基础上，达到准入标准的乡村迁移人口，如果（无偿）放弃农村的土地（包括土地使用权证），则可以获得城市户口和申请享受上述福利包的资格。 3) Migrants who reach the entry criteria need to choose between the urban Hukou and the rural land certificate on a voluntary basis.

政策组合内容 Content of Policy Package 4) 农村土地市场化 允许农村集体土地直接进入一级市场, 土地开发商直接与村集体或农民进行土地交易； 一旦土地出让后，农民转为市民，并同时自动获得享有上述福利包的资格； 4) Reform the current rural land requisition system and allows rural collectives or farmers’ organization to sell rural land directly to land developers at market prices, and dispossessed farmers then obtain urban Hukou automatically;

政策组合内容 Content of Policy Package 5) 结合农村土地非农化的市场化，抽取土地增值税，建立为前述迁移人口和失地农民获得“城市户口”而获取福利包进行融资的机制。 5) City governments levy a value added tax in land appreciation in requisition and use it as the financial basis for the welfare package provided to those who obtain urban Hukou.

政策组合本质 Essence of the Policy Package 在自愿的基础上，政府利用新建立的城市福利包，与迁移到城市的、具有一定收入水平的迁移人口交换农地使用权； 然后将被自愿放弃的农地再分配（补贴）给留在农村的人、或应付农村土地人口变动所需进行的调整。 An voluntary choice for migrants between urban Hukou and rural land accompanied by land value added tax in urban expansion

对收入分配的政策涵义 Implications for Income Distribution 迁移出的农村人口让出土地给留在农村的人口 将迁入地城郊征地后的部分土地收入转移给从外来迁移人口为其提供城市基本公共服务 Redistribution of rural land from migrants to those who stay in rural； Redistribution of land revenue from city governments and dispossessed farmers in urban suburbs to migrants from rural areas

6000-13000 2000-3000

对经济效率的政策涵义 Implications for Economic Efficiency 土地使用权证发放防止 调地,提高利用效率 土地使用权证发放能促 进土地租赁,金融市场 发育 新土地征用体制能防止 侵犯农民利益，降低土 地浪费 土地增值税能减少土地 外部效应 Issuing land certificates will promote land use and transaction efficiency can promote land rental and sales markets reduce wasting use of land Land value added tax corrects for externality　in urban land development

财政估算方案 Financial Scenario 基本假设 财政收入 财政支出 将说明该方案可以实现自我融资，具有可操作性 Basic Assumption Revenue： Expenditure Show the package is self-financing

财政估算方案：基本假设 Financial Scenario：Scenario 政策从2006到2014年，持续9年(9年义务教育) From 2006 to 2014(nine-year compulsory education) 政策准入标准为月收入1000元以上 目前有有800多万劳动力 Entry criteria: Above 1000 RMB/Month 每年转移900万左右：400+230+200+100 9 Million Migrants：4+2.3+2+1 每年征地200万亩： 2003年295万亩 Land Requisition: 2 Million Mu/ Year

长途流动人口规模 Long-distance long term migrants Migrants outside home county with 6 months with income above 1000 RMB/ month Nearly 8 million such migrants inferred for the national population

财政估算方案：基本假设 Financial Scenario：Scenario 政策从2006到2014年，持续9年(9年义务教育) From 2006 to 2014(nine-year compulsory education) 政策准入标准为月收入1000元以上 有800多万劳动力 Entry criteria: Above 1000 RMB/Month 每年转移900万左右：400+230+200+100 9 Million Migrants：4+2.3+2+1 每年征地200万亩： 2003年295万亩 Land Requisition: 2 Million Mu/ Year

财政估算方案：移民结构 Financial Scenario：Migrants’ Structure

财政估算方案：移民规模 Financial Scenario：Migrants’ Scale 82.44 Migrants (Million)

财政估算方案：基本假设 Financial Scenario：Scenario 政策从2006到2014年，持续9年(9年义务教育) From 2006 to 2014(nine-year compulsory education) 政策准入标准为月收入1000元以上 有800多万劳动力 Entry criteria: Above 1000 RMB/Month 每年转移900万左右：400+230+200+100 9 Million Migrants：4+2.3+2+1 每年征地200万亩： 2003年295万亩 Land Requisition: 2 Million Mu/ Year

基准财政估算方案 Baseline Financial Scenario 财政收入： 土地增值税 财政支出： 最低生活保障 子女教育 住房补贴 Revenue： Land value added tax Expenditure： Social assistance Children’s education Housing subsidy

基准财政估算方案：地价变化及假设 Financial Scenario：Land Value Change 假设2006年土地出让价格为15万元，此后每年以10%的速度增加； 假设被征用农地1200元，5%贴现率30年贴现，2006年农地净现值1.9万元，每年增加5%； 假设农地转非农地开发成本为3万元，每年增长8%； 增值税全国平均税率为40%

财政估算方案：土地收益 Financial Scenario：Land Revenue

财政估算方案 Financial Scenario 财政收入： 土地增值税 Revenue： Land value added tax 财政支出： 最低生活保障 子女教育 住房补贴 Expenditure： Social assistance Children’s education Housing subsidy

政策财政支出：参数与假设 Financial Expenditure：Parms and Assus

政策财政支出 Financial Expenditure 11.1 3.3 1.1

政策预算收支 Reve and Expend of Policy Package

政策预算平衡情况(当年和累计) Balance of Policy Package

不同方案比较 Different Scenarios

方案比较: 当年平衡 Different Scenarios: current year

方案比较: 累计情况 Different Scenarios: accumulated

进一步的含义 Further implications 土地增值税初始盈余仍可以用于城市基础设施建设和解决既有失地农民问题，后面几年的赤字可通过开征财产税作为地方税基来补齐。 The fiscal surplus in initial years can still be used for urban infrastructure and accumulated dispossessed farmers. Deficits in later years can come from property tax to be installed as local tax base.

进一步的含义 Further implications 渐进还是不进？　整体推进还是摸着石头过河？ Gradualism or stagnation? Integrated approach or continue to “crossing the river by groping the stones”

谢谢，请批评指正！ Thanks for your patience，comments more than welcome ！