授課教師：國立臺灣大學 經濟學系 劉錦添 教授 新百家學堂─全球化的挑戰與因應 第四單元：經濟全球化與民眾的態度 授課教師：國立臺灣大學 經濟學系 劉錦添 教授 時間：2012年10月5日（星期五）下午 13:20 – 15:10 地點：臺灣大學博雅教學館101室 【本著作除另有註明外，採取創用CC「姓名標示－非商業性－相同方式分享」臺灣3.0版授權釋出】

The power of Market: BBC: Masters of Money: Keynes, Hayek, and Marx PBS: Commanding Heights: The Battle for the World Economy Milton Friedman: Free to Choose.

What Is Globalization? The world is moving away from self-contained national economies toward an interdependent, integrated global economic system Globalization refers to the shift toward a more integrated and interdependent world economy Globalization has two facets: 1) the globalization of markets 市場全球化 2) the globalization of production 生產全球化

The Globalization of Markets The globalization of markets refers to the merging of historically distinct and separate national markets into one huge global marketplace (不同國家的市場整合成全球性市場) In many industries, it is no longer meaningful to talk about the “German market” or the “American market” Instead, there is only the global market The globalization of markets refers to the merging of historically distinct and separate national markets into one huge global marketplace. It is important to recognize that significant differences still exist among national markets, requiring companies to customize market strategies, product features, and operating practices to meet the conditions in particular markets. The most global markets currently are not markets for consumer products—where national differences in tastes and preferences are still often important enough to act as a brake on globalization—but markets for industrial goods and materials that serve a universal need the world over. These include the markets for commodities such as aluminum, oil, and wheat; the markets for industrial products such as microprocessors, DRAMs (computer memory chips), and commercial jet aircraft; the markets for computer software; and the markets for financial assets from U.S. Treasury bills to Eurobonds and futures on the Nikkei index or the Mexican peso.

The Globalization of Markets Falling trade barriers make it easier to sell internationally (解除貿易的壁壘；1930年代貿易戰爭) The tastes and preferences of consumers are converging on some global norm (消費者的偏好、嗜好全球相同：可口可樂、麥當勞、手機、電腦、流行音樂…) Firms help create the global market by offering the same basic products worldwide (商品全球行銷) In many markets the emergence of a global marketplace has begun to occur. There are three causes: falling barriers to cross-border trade have made it easier to sell internationally; tastes and preferences are converging on some global norm helping to create a global market; and firms are facilitating the trend by offering standardized products worldwide creating a global market.

Global Market

Drivers Of Globalization全球化的趨動力 Two macro factors underlie the trend toward greater globalization: the decline in barriers to the free flow of goods, services, and capital that has occurred since the end of World War II (貿易、投資的障礙下降) technological change (科技進步，尤其是電腦的發明與應用) Global Institutions: IMF, World Bank, WTO The two macro factors underlie the trend towards greater globalization: First, the decline in the barriers to free flow of goods, services, and capital Second, technological change in communications, information processing, and transportation technologies.

Declining Trade and Investment Barriers 貿易、投資障礙下降 International trade occurs when a firm exports goods or services to consumers in another country Foreign direct investment (FDI) occurs when a firm invests resources in business activities outside its home country After World War II, advanced countries made a commitment to lower barriers to trade and investment Since 1950, average tariffs have fallen significantly and are now at about 4% Countries have also been opening markets to FDI International trade occurs when a firm exports goods or services to consumers in another country. Foreign direct investment (FDI) occurs when a firm invests resources in business activities outside its home country. After World War II, advanced industrial nations of the West committed themselves to removing barriers to the free flow of goods, services, and capital between nations.

Declining Trade and Investment Barriers 貿易、投資障礙下降 Table 1: Average Tariff Rates on Manufactured Products as Percent of Value

Declining Trade and Investment Barriers Lower barriers to trade and investment mean: that firms can view the world, rather than a single country, as their market that firms can base production in the optimal location for that activity;

2. The Role of Technological Change Technological change has made the globalization of markets a reality Important advances have occurred in: microprocessors and telecommunications the Internet and World Wide Web，Skype transportation technology;

2. The Role of Technological Change Implications of technological change for the globalization of production include: lower transportation costs that enable firms to disperse production to economical, geographically separate locations; lower information processing and communication costs that enable firms to create and manage globally dispersed production systems;

3. The Emergence Of Global Institutions Institutions created over the past half century include: the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) the World Trade Organization (WTO) the International Monetary Fund (IMF) the World Bank the United Nations (UN)

3. The Emergence Of Global Institutions The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank were created in 1944 The IMF was established to maintain order in the international monetary system The World Bank was established to promote economic development

GATT to WTO In 2007, the 150 nations that accounted for 97% of world trade were WTO members The WTO promotes lower barriers to trade and investment; The World Trade Organization (like its predecessor GATT) is primarily responsible for policing the world trading system and making sure that nation-states adhere to the rules laid down in trade treaties signed by WTO members

如何測量全球化的程度(貿易) Trade Volume($)/GDP($)

如何測量全球化的程度(Capital Flows) Capital flows($)/GDP($) ( Foreign Direct Investment)

全球化的趨勢: 19世紀至20世紀 Exports($)/GDP($)

全球化的趨勢： Foreign Capital Stocks($)/GDP($) (*not flows)

全球化的趨勢： The world was more open in the late 19th century, than right after the second world war:

全球化的趨勢： 貿易型態由農產品轉成製造業產品 下一階段？ 服務業？ 全球化的趨勢： 貿易型態由農產品轉成製造業產品 下一階段？ 服務業？

全球化的趨勢： 開發中國家的貿易型態已由農產品轉向製造業

開放或鎖國？ 全球化的另項指標 A widely used classification of countries as open/closed based on their policies (i.e. not outcomes such as trade levels) has been developed by Sachs & Warner A country is classified as “open” if: 開放型的國家 Average tariffs are below 40 percent ； Nontariff barriers cover less than 40 percent of trade ； The black market exchange rate premium is less than 20 percent ； There is no state monopoly on major exports ； There is no socialist economic system (where the communist party maintains undivided power) If any of these 5 criteria is not met, the country is classified as closed The fraction of open countries has dramatically increased over the last 40 years: From 16% in 1960 to 73% in 2000 (Another indication of increased globalization)

開放或鎖國？ United States and United Kingdom: already open in 1950 Japan in 1964 Sweden in 1960 Chile in 1976 Mexico in 1986 China: still closed in 2000 High black market exchange rate premium: 35% Communist party rule；黨國資本主義 India: still closed in 2000 High average tariff rate: 48% Non-tariff barriers that cover 93% of trade Taiwan？

Globalization and Income 為何我們關心全球化的議題？ Policy debates： Globalization and Income “Globalization has done far less to raise the incomes of the world's poorest people than the leaders had hoped, many officials here say.”New York Times(2002) “Globalization backlash in rich nations” Financial Times(2007)

2) Globalization and Inequality “The best evidence available shows [that] . . . the current wave of globalization, which started around 1980, has actually promoted economic equality and reduced poverty”(Dollar and Kraay, World Bank, 2002). “[G]lobalization has dramatically increased inequality between and within nations”(Jay Mazur, US Union leader, 2000).

3) Trade and Wages Data suggests that the U.S. lost between 100,000-170,00 jobs through offshoring between 2000-2003 A greater share of imports in the form of finished manufactured goods (not raw materials); Imports of intermediate manufactured goods; Lower prices of many international goods; The mere threat of foreign competition; The large increase in FDI to other countries means lower investment in the domestic manufacturing base and greater foreign capacity to directly compete with US-based manufacturers; Spillover effects to other sectors; Trade in services has gained importance.

Manufacturing Trade Deficit and Job Losses

4) Immigration

4) Immigration

5) Greater Worker Insecurity Globalization: Substitution of cheaper foreign labor for domestic labor; Increases firms’ price elasticity of demand for labor; Raises volatility of wages and employment Generates worker insecurity; Effects can be far-reaching, including wage restraint, ill health, reduction in consumer spending and economic inequality.

擁護全球化的觀點:提昇所得水準,不會影響所得分配. Globalization induces a country’s specialization in its strength, increases capital flows and technology transfer, and therefore raises its income. No evidence that globalization has any economically significant impact on within-country income inequality. Since 1980, the number of poor people, defined as those living on less than $1 a day, has fallen by about 200 million, much of it due to the rapid growth of China and India. Globalization has actually reduced between-country inequality.

擁護全球化的觀點: Higher income level

擁護全球化的觀點：No impact on (between-country) income inequality Gini 係數：測量所得分配不平均度的指標

反對全球化的觀點: globalization does not increase wealth but increases income inequality. "Globalization is leaving perilous instability and rising inequality in its wake ... it has dramatically increased inequality between and within nations....”(Jay Mazur, Foreign Affairs, January/February 2000) Within-country inequality increased, while globalization increased. But are they related? The short answer is no, as we have seen. But people blame their misfortunes on it anyway. They emphasize mostly on within-country inequality, not between-country one. It is understandable. The 1-dollar threshold set by the World Bank is totally arbitrary. In the U.S. for example, the poverty threshold for a family of four has been estimated to be around US$11 per day (in 2000 dollars).

反對全球化的觀點: Rising within- country income inequality

擁護全球化觀點 :NET Job Creation. Economists recently found that foreign activity by U.S. multinationals complementsrather than substitutes for domestic activity by the same firms (對外投資會增加母公司的員工僱用) They also show that activities associated with outsourcing are neither quantitatively large nor have they increased markedly in recent years.

反對全球化觀點 : GROSS Job Destruction. Like to use specific cases: “The issue of American automotive jobs being lost to Mexico, where labor costs are cheaper than in the United States, has been a sore point between the union and the Big Three auto makers, particularly since the advent of the North American Free Trade Agreement.”New York Times (1993).   The study of the impact of outsourcing on Hong Kong’s labor market implies that someone (especially the low-skilled) will lose his/her job in the short run. But it does not (intend to) show that there is a (long-run) structural job destruction. How about Taiwan？

台大經濟系特聘教授 劉錦添 國立台灣大學經濟全球化研究計畫 台灣民眾對經貿態度的調查 台大經濟系特聘教授 劉錦添 國立台灣大學經濟全球化研究計畫

台灣民眾對經貿態度的調查 調查時間： 調查對象：臺灣20～65歲的民眾為調查對象。 調查方法：電話訪問 調查機構：故鄉市調公司 第1次問卷：2009年7月22～8月3日，晚上六點至十點。(88水災之前) 第2次問卷：2009年11月11～11月16日，晚上六點至十點。(美牛宣布進口之後) 第3次問卷：2010年5月17～5月24日，晚上六點至十點。 調查對象：臺灣20～65歲的民眾為調查對象。 調查方法：電話訪問 調查機構：故鄉市調公司 研究單位：國立台灣大學經濟全球化研究計畫

表1：對於進口商品進行管制的看法

表2：贊成ECFA程度 第一次問卷內容：「關於台灣和中國簽訂類似自由貿易協定的ECFA，您的看法是？(ECFA：兩岸經濟合作架構協議) 」 第二次問卷內容：「如果台灣和中國簽訂「自由貿易協定」，也就是雙方所有商品可以自由進出口且皆免關稅，請問您的看法是？」 第三次問卷內容：「請問您贊不贊成政府和中國簽訂ECFA？」

表3：對ECFA的瞭解程度

表4：贊不贊成公投決定ECFA

表5：您認為政府簽訂ECFA之後，將會如何影響兩岸關係

表6： 關於台灣與日本、美國簽訂自由貿易協定，您的看法？

表7：認為自己是台灣人還是中國人？

表8：政黨支持度

表9：您最喜歡看的哪一台電視新聞

表10：您個人對不同國家的喜愛程度 (第3次問卷)

“Individual Preferences over trade partners in Taiwan” Politics and Economics Forthcoming, 2012 Chun-Fang Chiang, Jin-Tan Liu, and Tsia-Wei Wen National Taiwan University

Introduction People have concerns about free trade: In theory, everyone may be better off in a world of free trade if the gains from trade can be redistributed in a proper way. However, in reality, gains from trade is unlikely to be redistributed well. People have concerns about free trade: Personal gain/ loss under free trade Political concerns

Trade Preferences Which factors determine individual preferences towards free trade ? -- human capital, industry of employment… --Can non- economic factors explain preferences towards free trade? Trade partners : Do people prefer some countries than others to be trade partners?

A picture from the Economist

Data Data: survey data under a globalization program Computer Assisted Telephone Interview, CATI Age: 20～65 Survey Time & Sample Size

Findings and Conclusion The traditional trade theory and individual risk preference could explain the role of human capital in trade attitude. We also found non-economic factors important: -- Identify themselves exclusively as Taiwanses (-24%, -3%) -- Ethinicity (mainlanders) (10%)

版權聲明 頁碼 作品 版權標示 作者 / 來源 1-71 FOTOPEDIA / World Economic Forum (http://www.fotopedia.com/items/flickr-345629231)， 瀏覽日期 2013/01/29。 1 Open Clip Art Library / Karthikeyan A K (http://openclipart.org/detail/171954/cycle-color-by-karthikeyan-171954/)， 瀏覽日期 2013/01/29。 2 《臺灣歷史圖說(史前至一九四五年)》， 周婉窈，聯經出版，1998 年 10 月，十七世紀大員地區手繪地圖，頁 49。 依據著作權法第 46、52、65 條合理使用。 3 周婉窈，聯經出版，1998 年 10 月，大員島的熱蘭遮市街與城堡，頁 50-51。 8 WIKIMEDIA COMMONS / Emilfaro (http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Free_Trade_Areas.PNG)，

頁碼 作品 版權標示 作者 / 來源 11 International Business Fourth Edition (http://www.google.com.tw/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=%22Average+Tariff+Rates+on+Manufactured+Products+as+Percent+of+Value%22&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CDYQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fmuse.widener.edu%2Fsba%2Fecondept%2FHill%2520Ch%2520001--%252003.ppt&ei=z8V2UI6oJu_vmAWXsIH4Dg&usg=AFQjCNH7fhB-Rt7SJI4yMkWrHQwaoGfViQ)，頁 38。 瀏覽日期 2013/01/29，依據著作權法第 46、52、65 條合理使用。 18 《Econ 399H – International Trade and Policy，Lecture 1: Introduction of the Course & Globalization Debates》 (http://s3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/ihome.ust.hk/ContentPages/20917071.pdf)，頁 17。 由所有權人 Heiwai Tang 授權，您如需利用本作品，請另行向權利人取得授權。 19 (http://s3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/ihome.ust.hk/ContentPages/20917071.pdf)，頁 18。 由所有權人 Heiwai Tang 授權，您如需利用本作品，請另行向權利人取得授權。 20 (http://s3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/ihome.ust.hk/ContentPages/20917071.pdf)，頁 19。 由所有權人 Heiwai Tang授權，您如需利用本作品，請另行向權利人取得授權。 21 (http://s3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/ihome.ust.hk/ContentPages/20917071.pdf)，頁20。 由所有權人 Heiwai Tang 授權，您如需利用本作品，請另行向權利人取得授權。

頁碼 作品 版權標示 作者 / 來源 22 《Econ 399H – International Trade and Policy，Lecture 1: Introduction of the Course & Globalization Debates》 (http://s3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/ihome.ust.hk/ContentPages/20917071.pdf)，頁 21。 由所有權人 Heiwai Tang 授權，您如需利用本作品，請另行向權利人取得授權。 23 (http://s3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/ihome.ust.hk/ContentPages/20917071.pdf)，頁 22。 由所有權人 Heiwai Tang 授權，您如需利用本作品，請另行向權利人取得授權。 24 (http://s3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/ihome.ust.hk/ContentPages/20917071.pdf)，頁 23。 由所有權人 Heiwai Tang 授權，您如需利用本作品，請另行向權利人取得授權。 27 Globalization has done far …. officials here say. (http://s3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/ihome.ust.hk/ContentPages/20917071.pdf)，頁 10。 由所有權人 Heiwai Tang 授權，您如需利用本作品，請另行向權利人取得授權。 Globalization backlash in rich nations.

28 30 31 32 頁碼 作品 版權標示 作者 / 來源 The best evidence available ….. poverty 《Econ 399H – International Trade and Policy，Lecture 1: Introduction of the Course & Globalization Debates》 (http://s3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/ihome.ust.hk/ContentPages/20917071.pdf)，頁 11。 由所有權人 Heiwai Tang 授權，您如需利用本作品，請另行向權利人取得授權。 [G]lobalization …… nations 30 Amazonaws.com (http://s3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/www.stateofworkingamerica.org/ContentPages/17951541.pdf)，頁 51。 瀏覽日期 2013/01/29，依據著作權法第 46、52、65 條合理使用。 31 Amazonaws.com (http://s3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/www.stateofworkingamerica.org/ContentPages/17951541.pdf)，頁 53。 32 Amazonaws.com (http://s3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/www.stateofworkingamerica.org/ContentPages/17951541.pdf)，頁 54。

頁碼 作品 版權標示 作者 / 來源 35 《Econ 399H – International Trade and Policy，Lecture 1: Introduction of the Course & Globalization Debates》 (http://s3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/ihome.ust.hk/ContentPages/20917071.pdf)，頁42。 由所有權人Heiwai Tang授權，您如需利用本作品，請另行向權利人取得授權。 36 (http://s3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/ihome.ust.hk/ContentPages/20917071.pdf)，頁43。 由所有權人Heiwai Tang授權，您如需利用本作品，請另行向權利人取得授權。 37 Globalization is leaving perilous ... within nations... Foreign Affairs / Jay Mazur。 (http://chenry.webhost.utexas.edu/global/coursemats/mazur.html)。 瀏覽日期 2013/01/29，依據著作權法第 46、52、65 條合理使用。 38 (http://s3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/ihome.ust.hk/ContentPages/20917071.pdf)，頁47。 由所有權人Heiwai Tang授權，您如需利用本作品，請另行向權利人取得授權。 40 The issue of American …..Free Trade Agreement The New York Times: Mexican G.M. Jobs Shift to U.S. (http://www.nytimes.com/1993/06/22/business/mexican-gm-jobs-shift-to-us.html)，瀏覽日期 2013/01/29，依據著作權法第 46、52、65 條合理使用。

頁碼 作品 版權標示 作者 / 來源 43 國立臺灣大學 經濟學系 劉錦添 教授。 44 45 46 47

頁碼 作品 版權標示 作者 / 來源 48 國立臺灣大學 經濟學系 劉錦添 教授。 49 50 51 52

頁碼 作品 版權標示 作者 / 來源 56 《Individual Preferences over Trade Partners in Taiwan》 Chun-Fang Chiang, Jin-Tan Liu and Tsai-Wei Wen 。 (http://www.ecu.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0013/200713/4.2-Trade_preference_Chiang.pdf)，頁 17。瀏覽日期 2013.02.05， 依據著作權法第 46、52、65條合理使用。 57 《The Economist》，China and Taiwan / Claudio Munoz (http://www.economist.com/node/16485328)，2010 年 7 月 1 日。 瀏覽日期 2013 年 1 月 29 日，依據著作權法第 46、52、65 條合理使用。 58 依據著作權法第 46、52、65 條合理使用。 59 (http://www.ecu.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0013/200713/4.2-Trade_preference_Chiang.pdf)，頁 20。瀏覽日期 2013.02.05， 60 (http://www.ecu.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0013/200713/4.2-Trade_preference_Chiang.pdf)，頁 22。瀏覽日期 2013.02.05，

頁碼 作品 版權標示 作者 / 來源 61 《Individual Preferences over Trade Partners in Taiwan》 Chun-Fang Chiang, Jin-Tan Liu and Tsai-Wei Wen 。 (http://www.ecu.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0013/200713/4.2-Trade_preference_Chiang.pdf)，頁 23。瀏覽日期 2013.02.05， 依據著作權法第 46、52、65 條合理使用。