第25章 勞動市場 , 失業, 以及通貨膨脹

A . 勞動市場:基本觀念 Labor Market : Basic Concept B . 古典經濟學派的勞動市場 The Classical View of the Labor Market C . 解釋失業的存在 Explaining the Existence of Unemployment

D . 失業率&通貨膨脹之間的短期關係 The Short-Run Relationship Between the Unemployment Rate and Inflation E . 長期總合供給曲線，可能產出，和自然失 業率 The Long-Run Aggregate Supply Curve, Potential GDP, and the Natural Rate of Employment

A.勞動市場: 基本概念 The Labor Market: Basic Concept 1. 失業率(UR) 是指失業人口對勞動力人口的比例 失業人口 UR= *100% 勞動力人口

未滿15歲 有酬工作 就業人口 一週內從事15小時 以上無酬家屬工作 總人 口 年滿15歲 勞動力 失業人口 現在沒有工作可以立即 labor force 工作且正在找工作者 非勞動力 nonlabor force 現役軍人&監管人員

民國90年15歲以上的民間人口1718萬人 勞動力人口(983萬人) 就業人口(938萬人) 年滿15歲民間人口 非勞動力人口(735萬人) 失業人口(45萬人) (1718萬人) 勞動參與率= *100%= =57.22% 失業率= *100%= *100%=4.58% 勞動人口 983 年滿15歲人口 1718 失業人口 45 983 勞動力人口

2.失業的種類 (a)摩擦性失業(Frictional Unemployment) 因為缺乏資訊或環境不熟悉，勞動者尋找適合自己興趣及技能所造成的失業，可說是 job/skill matching problem (b)結構性失業(Structural unemployment) 因為經濟結構的改變而造成某些產業顯著性的失業 (c)季節性失業(Seasonal Unemployment) 因為季節改變而造成的失業 (d)循環性失業(Cyclical Unemployment) 因為經濟衰退&蕭條造成失業人口的增加

B.古典經濟學派的勞動市場 The Classical View of the Labor Market 1. 古典經濟學派認為，透過工資率上、下調整，會使得勞動需求量和勞動供給量達到均衡 i.e.不應該有持續性超過摩擦性和結構性失業的現象.

2.勞動供給和勞動需要曲線 勞動供給曲線是表示家計單位在某特定工資時所願意提供的工時 勞動需求曲線是表示廠商在某特定工資時所願意雇用的工時

3.古典學派的勞動市場 假設勞動需要減少均衡工資將會降至w* 所有想要w*的工資者都有工作所以永遠是充分就業 full employment

4.古典勞動市場和總合供給曲線 古典經濟學者認為工資率可快速調整配合物價所以AS曲線是一條垂直線 因此財政政策和貨幣政策不會影響產出和就業水準

5.失業率&古典學派的觀念 失業率並非一定是正確的指標來表示勞動市場運作 失業率有時偏高即使勞動市場運作正常

C.解釋失業的存在 Explaining the Existence of Unemployment 1.工資僵固性 sticky wages : 工資向下僵固性 downward rigidity of wages 工資為何會有向下僵固性? 廠商和員工之間通常訂有契約，所以廠商很難因應經濟波動而調整工資

Explaining the Existence of Unemployment 2. 效率工資理論 當工資率提高生產力也會提高，所以廠商願意付出高於市場均衡工資 工資率 S a b W0 W* D L* 勞動量

Explaining the Existence of Unemployment 3.不完全資訊 廠商付出比均衡工資高 工資率 S 失業 a b W* D 勞動量 L*

4.最低工資 W:最低工資 工資率 S a 失業 b W W* D L* 勞動量

總結:只要是工資超過市場均衡工資就會有失業的現象其原因可能是 1.工資僵固性 2.效率工資論 3.不完全資訊 4.最低工資 這些造成失業的原因並非互相排斥有時可能同時存在

D.失 業率和通貨膨脹之間的短期關係 The Short-Run Relationship Between the Unemployment Rate and Inflation 1.失業率和物價水準是負相關 總合產出(Y)和失業率(U): 負相關 總合產出(Y)和物價水準(P): 正相關 Y ↑ U ↓ Y ↑ P ↑ U ↓ P ↑ U ↑ P ↓

2.菲力浦曲線(The Phillips curve) 表現通貨膨脹率 和失業率之間的關係 菲利浦曲線是A.W. Phillips用英國資料導出一個結論：如果我們想要降低物價上漲率，我們必須接受較高的失業率。 Notice that the percentage change in the price level is on the vertical axis, not the price level (P) itself. The theory behind the Phillips Curve is somewhat different to the theory behind the AS curve, although the insights gained from the AS/AD analysis regarding the behavior of the price level also apply to the behavior of the inflation rate.

3.歷史的透視 (a)1960年代通貨膨脹率和失業率之間有負相關

(b)1970和1980年代顯現不出通貨膨脹率和失業率之間的關係

4.AD,AS和菲力浦曲線 AS不變，只有AD移動P&Y就會有正關係 i.e. P ↑ Y ↑ U ↓ 菲力浦曲線成立

AD不變只有AS移動P&Y就會有負關係, P ↑ Y ↓ U↑

如果 AD 和 AS 同時移動P &Y 之間沒有明確的關係，所以物價上漲率&通貨膨脹率也無法顯示出明確的關係

5.Phillips Curve 不穩定的原因 (a)進口價格 (b)預期

1960年代和1970年代進口價格變化很小，但在1974和1979-1980，石油價格大幅度的上漲造成AS往左移

AD不變只有AS移動P&Y就會有負關係, P ↑ Y ↓ U↑

預期物價水準上漲結果工資合約調高生產成本提高Phillips Curve向左移

Inflation and Unemployment Around the World, 1997 to 2000 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE INFLATION RATE 1997 2000 Canada 9.5 6.6 -0.3 3.6 Australia 8.8 6.7 0.7 France 12.5 9.8 1.4 2.5 United Kingdom 5.8 5.7 4.2 6.4 Italy 12.2 10.7 1.5 2.9 United States 4.8 4.1 1.3 4.6 Netherlands 6.2 Sweden 7.8 -0.1 Germany 11.4 9.1 1.7 Japan 3.5 5.4 0.8 Sources: “Economic Indicators,” The Economist, July 5 – 11, 1997; July 8 – 14, 2000. Reprinted by permission.

E.長期總合供給曲線，可能 GDP&自然失業率 1.長期總合供給曲線是垂直線

2.長期Phillips Curve 也是垂直線 自然失業率=摩擦失業率(Frictional Unemployment) +結構性失業(Structural Unemployment)

3.失業的非加速通貨膨脹率The NAIRU—The Nonaccelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment 很多經濟學家相信通貨膨脹率的變化率和失業率是負相關 當失業率為NAIRU物價水準成常數的改變。 i.e.通貨膨脹率的變化為0

Example: 設某一經濟社會其勞動市場的需要和供給函數如下: QD=100-5W QS=10W-20 QD,QS:勞動市場的需要量&供給量 (單位:萬人)

(a)設此地區規定最低工資率為$9 問此勞動市場會有多少人失業 當W=$9 QD=55 QS=70 失業人數15萬人 工資 S=10w-20 8 D=100-5W 55 60 70 勞動量

若無最低工資率的規定，此時工資為多少? 有多少人就業? QD=QS 100-5W=10W-20 W=8 Q=60

1. According to Classical economists, excessive unemployment does not persist in the economy because a) wages will always adjust to ensure equilibrium in the labor market. b) The labor demand does not change in the economy. c) The labor supply does not change in the economy. d) Interest rates always change to insure equilibrium in the money market.

2. The type of unemployment that arises during recessions is known as a) the natural rate of unemployment. b) cyclical unemployment. c) structural unemployment. d) frictional unemployment.

3. Classical economists believe that the aggregate supply curve is vertical because a) wages are flexible and they always change to clear the labor market. b) The labor market is always in equilibrium. c) People who are not working are those who have chosen not to work at the prevailing wage rate. d) All of the above.

4. Suppose the equilibrium wage rate in the labor market is $10 and the demand for labor increase. If wages are sticky, there will be a a ) surplus of labor and the wage rate declines. b) Shortage of labor and the wage rate increase. c) Shortage of labor and the wage rate stays the same. d) Surplus of labor and the wage rate increases.

5. Coca Cola experienced a 20% drop in its sales 5. Coca Cola experienced a 20% drop in its sales. Even though the demand for its product decreased, Coca Cola did not cut the wages of its nonunionized workers. This is an example of a) an explicit contract not to cut wages b) poor management. c) An implicit or social contract not to cut wages. d) None of the above.

6. Efficiency wage theory suggests that firms may hold wages above the market clearing rate because a) they believe that the productivity of workers increases with the wage rate. b) unspoken agreements between workers and firms are in place. c) It is required by law that they do so. d) Long-term contract fix wage rates for a period of one to three years.

7. Minimum wage laws contribute to a higher unemployment rate by a) raising wages above the market clearing level in some labor markets. b) Pushing wages below the market clearing level in some labor markets. c) Raising wages above the market clearing level in all labor markets. d) Pushing wages below the market clearing level in all labor markets.  

8. Output and the unemployment rate are a) positively related 8. Output and the unemployment rate are a) positively related. b) Not related in the short run. c) Not related neither in the long run nor in the short run. d) Negatively related.

9. If aggregate supply increases and aggregate demand remains unchanged, a) there will be a positive relationship between the price level and the level of aggregate output. b) there will be a negative relationship between the price level and the level of aggregate output. c) there will be no systematic relationship between the price level and the level of aggregate output. d) the price level will remain unchanged, but aggregate output will decrease.

10. In the long run, the Phillips curve will be vertical at the natural rate of unemployment if a) long-run aggregate demand curve is vertical at potential GDP. b) The long-run aggregate demand curve is horizontal at the natural rate of inflation. c) The long-run aggregate supply curve is vertical at potential GDP. d) The long-run supply curve is horizontal at the natural rate of inflation.