管 理 學 第六章 決策：Managers as Decision Makers Lateral thinking turns up an idea. Vertical thinking develops it. —Edward de Bone 任維廉

園區宅男選標準情人，郭台銘求偶條件， 選工作，選總統，選NB，選自助餐點 The paradox of choice: 高級新果醬樣品試吃， 6 vs. 24種, 何者吸引人較多？實際買較多？ 游爸只想買條牛仔褲 Kairos 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

一生能有幾次選擇？ 張無忌是最差勁的決策者 3 3 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

綱要 1. The Decision-Making Process, 決策程序 2. Managers Making Decisions, 決策的普遍性 (pervasiveness) 3. Types of Decisions and Decision-Making Conditions, 決策的類別與情況 4. Decision-Making Styles, 決策風格 5. Effective Decision Making in Today’s World, 實務建議 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

1. Decision-Making Process Decision: Making a choice from two or more alternatives. The eight steps in the decision-making process. To be ? or Not to be? 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

Step 1: Identifying the Problem Problem: A discrepancy between an existing and desired state of affairs. Characteristics of Problems A problem becomes a problem when a manager becomes aware of it. There is pressure to solve the problem. 賀比 The manager must have the authority, information, or resources needed to solve the problem. 不做決策 ＊學校：你有沒有答對？ ＊企業：問對問題往往比知道答案還重要（Albert Einstein），曲突徙薪，運輸規劃 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

Step 2: Identifying Decision Criteria factors that are important to resolving the problem. Costs that will be incurred (investments required) Risks likely to be encountered (chance of failure) Outcomes that are desired (growth of the firm) Step 3: Allocating Weights to the Criteria not of equal importance, in the correct priority order. 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

Exhibit 6–2 Criteria and Weights for Computer Replacement Decision Criterion Weight Memory and Storage 10 Battery life 8 Carrying Weight 6 Warranty 4 Display Quality 3 ＊1~10, Σ＝100…… 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

Step 4: Developing Alternatives Identifying viable alternatives Alternatives are listed (without evaluation) that can resolve the problem. 水平思考 Want vs. Must: min requirement Step 5: Analyzing Alternatives Appraising each alternatives: excel m*n, ＊Why Alternatives follow Criteria? 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

Assessed Values of Laptop Computers: Decision Criteria 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

Evaluation of Laptop Alternatives: Weighted Criteria 11 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

Step 6: Selecting an Alternative Choosing the best alternative The alternative with the highest total weight is chosen. Step 7: Implementing the Alternative Putting the chosen alternative into action. Conveying the decision to and gaining commitment from those who will carry out the decision. 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

Step 8: Evaluating the Decision’s Effectiveness The soundness of the decision is judged by its outcomes. How effectively was the problem resolved by outcomes resulting from the chosen alternatives? If the problem was not resolved, what went wrong? Feedback. 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

2. 理性決策程序的模式 1. 確定問題 5. 分析替選方案 2. 辨認決策準則 6. 選擇一個替選方案 1. 確定問題 5. 分析替選方案 2. 辨認決策準則 6. 選擇一個替選方案 3. 分配權重給準則 7. 執行替選方案 4. 發展替選方案　　　 　 8. 評估決策效能 ＊1. 見識謀斷（行），Intelligent, Design, Choice activity 2. 那一步最難？以換車或換電腦為例。 3. 應用水平思考，腦力激盪法發展替選方案。

Decision Criteria and Weights

Assessment of Car Alternatives

The Decision-Making Process Allocation of Weights to Criteria Reliability 10 Screen size 8 Warranty 5 Weight 5 Price 4 Screen type 3 Problem Identification “My salespeople need new computers” Identification of Decision Criteria Price Weight Warranty Screen type Reliability Screen size Development of Alternatives Acer Compaq Gateway HP Micromedia NEC Sony Toshiba Evaluation of Decision Effectiveness Implementation of an Alternative Gateway Selection of an Alternative Acer Compaq Gateway HP Micromedia NEC Sony Toshiba Analysis of Alternatives Acer Compaq Gateway HP Micromedia NEC Sony Toshiba © Prentice Hall, 2002

討論：找出你真正想要的…… 1.我喜歡？我討厭？ 我希望擁有？我害怕失去？ 2.什麼人讓我羨慕？什麼事讓我感動？ 3. 假如你只剩下三個月的生命 ，你要怎麼過？ 18 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

練習水平思考 Lateral thinking turns up an idea. Vertical thinking develops it. —Edward de Bone 1. 捨己救父，兩粒石頭 2. 五百元做汽車防盜 3. 只能用四條不能中斷的直線將 九個點串連起來

4. 100元能做什麼？ 5. 筆電的另類用法？ 6. 玩三個數字遊戲。 101-102=1 F O R T Y T E N ＋ T E N S I X T Y 20 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

2. Managers Making Decisions, 決策的普遍性 (pervasiveness) 1. 理性 2. 有限理性 3. 直覺 討論：1. Assumptions 2. 最佳，滿意，政治模式 3. groupthink：腦力激盪，群體決策, AHP, Delphi,   博採眾議，要有擔當抗拒短期利益 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

2.1 Rationality Managers make consistent, value-maximizing choices with specified constraints. Assumptions of Rationality 22 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

2.2 Bounded Rationality Managers make decisions rationally, but are limited (bounded) by their ability to process information. Assumptions: Will satisfice - choose the 1st alternative encountered that satisfactorily solves the problem. 簡明仁學長， 昔，反，合 Good enough: Org. culture, Power & politics ……. Escalation of commitment: an increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong. 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

2.3 The Role of Intuition Making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment. 討論：救火兄弟，IBM深藍 24 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

Exhibit 6–7 What is Intuition? 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

3. Types of Decisions and Decision-Making Conditions, 決策的類別與情況 3.1 問題的類型：結構良好或不佳 3.2 決策的情況 (conditions)：確定，風險，不 確定

Structured Problems Programmed Decision Involve goals that clear. Are familiar (have occurred before). Are easily and completely defined—information about the problem is available and complete. Programmed Decision A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach. e.g. Policy, Procedure, Rules.

Unstructured Problems Problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete. Problems that will require custom-made solutions. Nonprogrammed Decisions Decisions that are unique and nonrecurring. Decisions that generate unique responses.

3.1 由技入道！ Nonprogrammed Decisions Programmed Decisions Ill-structured Top Programmed Decisions Nonprogrammed Decisions Type of Problem Level in Organization Lower 29 Well-structured 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

3.2 Decision-Making Conditions Certainty A situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is known. Risk A situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood (probability) of outcomes that result from the choice of particular alternatives. 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

Expected Value for Revenues from the Addition of One Ski Lift Expected Expected × Probability = Value of Each Event Revenues Alternative Heavy snowfall $850,000 0.3 = $255,000 Normal snowfall 725,000 0.5 = 362,500 Light snowfall 350,000 0.2 = 70,000 $687,500 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

Minimax: the manager’s choice to minimize maximum regret. Uncertainty Limited information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives. Maximax: the optimistic manager’s choice to maximize the maximum payoff Maximin: the pessimistic manager’s choice to maximize the minimum payoff Minimax: the manager’s choice to minimize maximum regret. 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

PAYOFF MATRIX (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 14 18 24 28* 11 9 15* 14 33 24 21 28 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

REGRET MATRIX (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 17 15 13 7* 34 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

4. Decision-Making Styles Dimensions of Decision-Making Styles Linear thinking style Using external data and facts Processing this information through rational, logical thinking Nonlinear thinking style Using internal sources of information Processing this information with internal insights, feeling 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

Exhibit 6–13 Common Decision-Making Errors and Biases 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

Decision-Making Biases and Errors Heuristics Using “rules of thumb” to simplify decision making. Overconfidence Bias Holding unrealistically positive views of one’s self and one’s performance. Immediate Gratification Bias Choosing alternatives that offer immediate rewards and that to avoid immediate costs. 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

Decision-Making Biases and Errors Anchoring Effect Fixating on initial information and ignoring subsequent information. Selective Perception Bias Selecting organizing and interpreting events based on the decision maker’s biased perceptions. Confirmation Bias Seeking out information that reaffirms past choices and discounting contradictory information. 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

Decision-Making Biases and Errors Framing Bias Selecting and highlighting certain aspects of a situation while ignoring other aspects. Availability Bias Losing decision-making objectivity by focusing on the most recent events. Representation Bias Drawing analogies and seeing identical situations when none exist. Randomness Bias Creating unfounded meaning out of random events. 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

Decision-Making Biases and Errors Sunk Costs Errors Forgetting that current actions cannot influence past events and relate only to future consequences. Self-Serving Bias Taking quick credit for successes and blaming outside factors for failures. Hindsight Bias Mistakenly believing that an event could have been predicted once the actual outcome is known (after-the-fact). 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

請比較！

再比一次！

舊書店買音樂辭典 你願為這兩本辭典各出價多少？ A：詞彙數1萬。沒有破損，全新。 B：詞彙數2萬。封面稍破，其它部分全新。 情況二 這家舊書店同時有這兩種辭 典出售 情況一 書店只有辭典Ａ或辭典Ｂ

跟司機學管理 加州理工大學教授 Camerer 的實驗 為了保證每個月能有一筆大致穩定的收入，計程車 司機常會給自己訂一個日收入計畫，例如每天要賺到 1,500元才可以回家休息，無論是晴天雨天。 這個決策好嗎？ Why?

Why? 孝子難為 你選 □ (1) □ (2)? (1) 每年過年，包 30,000元紅包給父母 ，希望他們能買點補 品或買套新衣服。 (1) 每年過年，包 30,000元紅包給父母 ，希望他們能買點補 品或買套新衣服。 (2) 將這筆錢分成十 次，每次給他們 3,000 元。 你選 □ (1) □ (2)? Why?

5. Decision Making for Today’s World Guidelines for making effective decisions: Understand cultural differences. Know when it’s time to call it quits. Use an effective decision-making process. Habits of highly reliable organizations (HROs) *Are not tricked by their success. *Defer to the experts on the front line. *Let unexpected circumstances provide the solution. *Embrace complexity. *Anticipate, but also anticipate their limits. 46 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

補充：TEAM WORK 1. Case study: a manager’s dilemma (p.136) 2. Thinking critically about ethics (p.145) 3. Internet-based exercise (p.155) *3. 分享你最深刻的決策經驗：成敗各一。 *4. Web search, 延伸閱讀，寫心得： 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

1. 毛治國，決策（天下） 2. 張系國，不朽者 3. Daniel Kahneman,Prospect Theory(展望理論) 1.毛治國，決策（天下） 2. 張系國，不朽者 3. Daniel Kahneman,Prospect Theory(展望理論) *Loss aversion（損失厭惡感）：失大於得，分 多次給，一次罰。 *decision frame（決策框架）：對策 A, B 的內容是一樣的，卻因為陳述方式不同，以致影響其決策。 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

4. 奚愷元，別當正常的傻瓜，久石文化，2006 http://faculty.chicagogsb.edu/christopher.hsee/vita/

5. Ariely, D. , 誰說人是理性的，Predictably Irrational, 天下文化，2008 http://www.predictablyirrational.com/?page_id=6

回顧 1. 決策程序之天龍八部 2. 理性 VS. 感性，左腦 VS. 右腦 3. 水平思考，腦力激盪 4. 實務決策者 anytime well ready. 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授

Terms to Know policy decision unstructured problems nonprogrammed decisions certainty risk uncertainty directive style analytic style conceptual style behavioral style heuristics decision decision-making process problem decision criteria rational decision making bounded rationality satisficing escalation of commitment intuitive decision making structured problems programmed decision procedure rule 2018/11/13 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授