Chapter 2 全球經濟環境 Global Marketing Warren J. Keegan Mark C. Green

簡介 「市場」一詞的定義：有需求的個人或公司，在有意願及能力的情況下進行買賣

世界經濟概況 高階經理人及行銷人員在決策流程中必須將下列事實納入考量： 資金的移動已取代貿易，成為世界經濟的原動力 生產力與就業率不再是一體兩面，而是兩回事 世界經濟主導著整個市場，而各國經濟體只扮演次要角色 The first change is the increased volume of capital movements. The dollar value of world trade in merchandise is running at roughly $9.2 trillion per year. However, the London foreign exchange market turns over $450 billion each working day; overall, foreign exchange transactions are running at approximately $1.5 trillion per day worldwide—far surpassing the dollar volume of world trade in goods and services. The second change concerns the relationship between productivity and employment. Although employment in manufacturing remains steady or has declined, productivity continues to grow. The third major change is the emergence of the world economy as the dominant economic unit. Company executives and national leaders who recognize this have the greatest chance of success. For example, the real secret of the economic success of Germany and Japan is the fact that business leaders and policy makers focus on world markets and their respective countries’ competitive positions in the world economy. This change has brought two questions to the fore: How does the global economy work, and who is in charge? Unfortunately, the answers to these questions are not clear cut.

世界經濟概況 高階經理人及行銷人員在決策流程中必須將下列事實納入考量：（續） 資本主義與社會主義長達七十五年的對抗大致上已經結束 電子商務影響的範圍無遠弗屆，讓公司必須重新檢視其經營模式 The fourth change is the end of the Cold War. The demise of communism as an economic and political system can be explained in a straightforward manner: Communism is not an effective economic system. The overwhelmingly superior performance of the world’s market economies has given leaders in socialist countries little choice but to renounce their ideology. Finally, the personal computer revolution and the advent of the Internet era have in some ways diminished the importance of national boundaries. Two-thirds of American households have PCs; worldwide, an estimated 500 million personal computers are installed in homes and businesses. In the so-called Information Age, barriers of time and place have been subverted by a transnational cyber-world that functions “24/7.”

市場發展的階段 世界銀行根據各國國民生產毛額(GNP)，發展出一個四階段的分類制度 高所得國家 中高所得國家 中低所得國家 低所得國家 Although the income definition for each of the stages is arbitrary, countries within a given category generally have a number of characteristics in common. Thus, the stages provide a useful basis for global market segmentation and target marketing.

市場發展的階段

大型新興市場 中國 印度 印尼 南韓 巴西 墨西哥 阿根廷 南非 波蘭 土耳其 These countries are known as Big Emerging Markets (BEMs) because of the incredible growth potential within each market. Each one has experienced rapid economic growth during the past decade. These BEMs cut across the four stages of economic development; per capita income ranges from $10,879 in South Korea to $489 in India. China is the largest, with a population of 1.3 billion people; Argentina is the smallest, with a population of 38 million people. Despite these contrasts, experts predict that the BEMs will be key players in global trade even as their track records on human rights, environmental protection, and other issues come under closer scrutiny by their trading partners. The BEM government leaders will also come under pressure at home as their developing market economies create greater income disparity.

未開發國家與開發中國家的行銷機會 雖然低度開發國家與開發中國家有許多問題，但還是可以培養長期的市場機會 眼光應超越平均每人國民生產毛額 窮人加起來的整體購買力是非常驚人的 考量先加入市場業者的優勢 One of marketing’s roles in developing countries is to focus resources on the task of creating and delivering products that are best suited to local needs and incomes. Appropriate marketing communications techniques can also be applied to accelerate acceptance of these products. Marketing can be the link that relates resources to opportunity and facilitates need satisfaction on the consumer’s terms.

影響世界經濟 七大工業國 三極地區

發展階段的行銷意涵 產品飽和度 潛在買家或住戶擁有某特定產品的比例 在印度，私有電話的普及率僅限於總人口數的1%（見圖2-1）

低所得國家 平均每人國民生產毛額低於755美元 特點 工業化程度低 絕大多數就業人口從事農耕 高出生率 低識字率 極度依賴外援 政治動盪不安 大型新興市場包含中國與印度 Return

中低所得國家 平均每人國民生產毛額在755美元到2,995美元之間 通稱為低度開發國家 特點 大型新興市場：波蘭、土耳其與印尼 處於工業化初期 廉價勞力市場 工廠主要供應國內市場的商品為成衣、電池、輪胎、建築材料，以及包裝的食品 大型新興市場：波蘭、土耳其與印尼 Return

中高所得國家 平均每人國民生產毛額為2,996美元到9,266美元之間 特點 通常稱為新興工業國家 大型新興市場：阿根廷、巴西、墨西哥與南非 快速的工業化 工資上漲 國民識字率與教育程度提高 工資成本較先進國家來得低 通常稱為新興工業國家 大型新興市場：阿根廷、巴西、墨西哥與南非 Return

高所得國家 平均每人國民生產毛額超過9,266美元 高所得國家也稱為先進、已開發、工業化或後工業化國家 特點 服務業的重要性、資訊處理與交換的重要性、智慧技術高於機器技術 知識的重要性高於資金 重視未來發展及社會的人際關係 Return

七大工業國 這七國的財政部長、中央銀行總裁和首長共同努力帶領全球經濟邁向繁榮，並確保貨幣的穩定性 美國 日本 德國 法國 英國 加拿大 義大利 Return

三極地區 全球主要的經濟中心 三極地區的擴張 日本 西歐 美國 太平洋區域 北美 歐盟 Return The ascendancy of the global economy has been noted by many observers in recent years. One of the most astute is Kenichi Ohmae, former chairman of McKinsey & Company Japan. His 1985 book Triad Power represented one of the first attempts to develop a coherent conceptualization of the new emerging order. Ohmae argued that successful global companies had to be equally strong in Japan, Western Europe, and the United States. These three regions, which Ohmae collectively called the Triad, represented the dominant economic centers of the world. Today, roughly 70 percent of world income as measured by GNP is located in the Triad. Return