The Analysis Of Supply-demand Situation Of Chinese Sesame Market China International Sesame Conference 2017

Brief Contents ◆Chinese Sesame Production Situation In 2017/18 Crop Season ◆China’s Imports, Port Inventory And Market Consumption ◆ China Sesame Seed Import Market Forecast For 2017/2018 Crop

Chinese Sesame Production Situation In 2017/18 Crop Season 2017年中国芝麻种植面积比上年大幅增加，生产量连年下滑势头得到遏制。 China’s sesame planting area is increased sharply in 2017 over the last year, and the decline in production in successive years would be contained. 中国芝麻种植面积经历了连续数年下降，再次缩减几无可能，今年基本到了不能再减地步。以下因素有助于大家更好理解今年中国芝麻种植形势： China’s sesame planting area has experienced decline for successive years, it is almost impossible for the planting area to be reduced again, this year the planting area has basically got to the point that can not be reduced. The following factors will help you better understand the sesame planting situation in China this year:

Chinese Sesame Production Situation In 2017/18 Crop Season ☞从中国芝麻主产区主要秋作物种植收益来看：主产地芝麻原料市场价格基本在10000元/吨上下，出口级白麻不低于10500元/吨。虽然国产麻价徘徊在近几年的低位，但今年玉米市场价格也都比较低。 From the view of the income of planting main autumn crops in Chinese sesame main producing areas : the market price of raw materials sesame basically maintain at around RMB10,000 per ton, the price of exporting grade white sesame is not less than RMB10,500 per ton. Although the domestic sesame price hovers at lows in recent years, but this year the market price of corn remain relatively low.

Chinese Sesame Production Situation In 2017/18 Crop Season 从农业“供给侧”改革、种植结构调整等农业政策转变来看：今年白芝麻主产县秋作物种植结构调整推进力度大，尤其是驻马店地区平舆县白芝麻种植面积已恢复到了最近15年平均值以上，达到30~35万亩，接近2003年水平。另外周口地区项城、沈丘等县市种植面积也比上年有较大增加。 From the view of the agricultural "supply-side" reform and the planting structure adjustment and other agricultural policy changes: this year the autumn crop planting structure adjustment has been intensified in the white sesame main producing counties, especially in Pingyu county of Zhumadian area the planting area of white sesame has been restored to above the recent 15 years average, reaching 300,000 to 350,000 mu, closing to the level in 2003. In addition, the planting area in Xiangcheng, Shenqiu of Zhoukou area and other counties and cities have been increased greatly compared with last year.

Zhumadian,Henan 平舆 pingyu

Chinese Sesame Production Situation In 2017/18 Crop Season 二、主要种植区播种面积、生长、收获状况 The situation of the sowing area, the growth and the harvesting of sesame in the main planting regions 分省来看： Provincial situation： 河南省种植面积扩大，其中南阳地区、驻马店地区、周口地区均有增加，尤其是平舆县、上蔡县、项城市、沈丘县。南阳地区丘陵岗地零星种植比较明显。 The planting area is increased in Henan province, of which the planting area is increased in Nanyang,Zhumadian and Zhoukou, especially in Pingyu county, Shangcai county, Xiangcheng city and Shenqiu county. the scattered planting is relatively obvious in the hilly land in Nanyang.

Chinese Sesame Production Situation In 2017/18 Crop Season 安徽省种植面积基本稳定。其中阜阳、亳州地区比上年略有增加。 The planting area remain basically stable in Anhui province, of which the planting area is slightly increased over last year in Fuyang and Bozhou. 江西省黑麻种植面积与上年基本持平。其中，都昌县梅雨季麻已经收获，因生长初期多雨，预计单产60公斤/亩；鄱阳伏季麻目前长势很好，预计平均单产可达95公斤/亩。 The black sesame planting area is basically the same as last year in Jiangxi province. Among which, the plum rain season sesame has been harvested in Duchang county, the yield is estimated to be 60kg per mu (900kg/hactor) due to the excessive rains during the early growth period of sesame; the summer crop sesame is currently growing well in Poyang, and the estimated average yield is 95kg per mu (1.4MT/hactor). 湖南省种植面积略低于上年，其中衡阳地区种植面积下降并不明显、常德、岳阳地区下降15%。 The planting area is slightly less than last year in Hunan province, of which the decrease in planting area is not obvious in Hengyang area, the planting area is decreased by 15% in Changde and Yueyang. 今年重庆芝麻种植面积扩大，而且长势比较理想。 The planting area is increased in Chongqing this year, and the sesame was growing very well.

2001-2017 Chinese Sesame Production Data Diagram Data source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

China’s Imports, Port Inventory And Market Consumption 2016年中国进口芝麻数量突破90万吨。根据中国海关统计，2016年中国全年进口芝麻量已达933139吨，比2015年多127213吨，增幅15.78%。 China imported above 900,000 tons of sesame in 2016. According to China customs statistics, China's total import volume has reached 933,139 tons in 2016, which is increased by 127,213 tons and 15.78% compared with 2015. 2017年1~7月份进口量为459,160吨，与上年同期相比减少153,563吨,下降幅度25.06%。其中1、2月份中国进口芝麻分别为7.1万吨、9.12万吨，均创历史同期最高纪录。2月份为今年以来的进口到货高峰。 China import 459,160 tons from January to July in 2017, reduced by153,563 tons or 25.06% compared with the same period of last year. of which China import 71,000 tons and 91,200 tons in Jan. and Feb. respectively, that all creating the highest record over the same period in the history. February was the peak of arrival of imports this year

China’s Imports, Port Inventory And Market Consumption 预计8月到货量仍将会维持在6万吨左右。 it is estimated that the arrivals quantity will still maintain at around 60,000 tons in August . 1月份进口平均价格低至906美元/吨，为2013年来最低位。 the average import price reach as low as USD906 per ton in Jan., that has been its lowest since 2013. 此后，中国进口芝麻平均价格逐月抬高。3月份开始中国进口一直延续“量减价升”的态势，其中，6月份进口平均价格为1116美元/吨，为2016年以来最高价位，进口量下降至45732吨；7月份进口量继续下降至36806吨，处于2016年以来单月最低到货量。 Since then, China's average price of imported sesame raised month by month. The imports of China has been continue the trend of the "the reduction in quantity and the raise in price” since Mar., among which, the average import was USD1116 US per ton in June, the highest level since 2016, the import quantity declined to 45,732 tons; the import quantity continue to decline 36,806 tons in July, reaching the lowest quantity of arrival in a month since 2016.

China’s Imports, Port Inventory And Market Consumption 5月31日青岛和天津港口库存接近18万吨，为今年以来库存高峰。 The port stock was closed to 180,000 tons until May 31 in Qingdao and Tianjin, reaching the stock peak so far this year. 8月31日青岛港口库存接近9.5万吨，库存下降对市场心态有一定刺激。 The port stock was nearly 95,000 tons in Qingdao on Aug.31, the decline in stock has certain stimulus to the market mentality. 青岛港口库存量已成为市场的风向标。当青岛港芝麻库存量低至8万吨水平时，市场看涨情绪将会较浓。 The port stock in Qingdao has become the market weather vane. When the sesame stocks in Qingdao port reach as low as a level of 80,000 tons, the market bullish sentiment will be more concentrated. 流通环节库存处于低位，麻仁厂库存不多。 The stock remain at low in market and circulation and the stock is less in hulled sesame factories.

Import Sesame VS Domestic Sesame Source: China International Sesame Conference 2017

Source: China International Sesame Conference 2017

China Monthly Sesame Import Volume & Prices from Jan. to July, 2017

China Sesame Import Customs Clearance in 2017

Main Sesame Supply to China from Jan. to July, 2017

China Sesame Seed Import Market Forecast For 2017/2018 Crop 2017年中国经济形势大环境并不乐观，市场购买力下降、消费水平下降。 The environment of China's economic situation is not optimistic in 2017, the market purchasing power and consumption decline. “环保治理”带来“中国经济阵痛”，下游需求一直“不温不火”，不太接受原料市场价格的大幅上涨。 The "Environmental protection and control" lead to "China's economic pain", the downstream demand has been remained tepid, that do not accept the sharp rise in the market price of raw material sesame . 2016/17（9月/8月）中国市场年度，芝麻原料消费量大约为100万吨。 The consumption quantity of raw material sesame is around 1,000,000 tons during 2016/17 (Sep./Aug.) Chinese marketing year.

China Sesame Seed Import Market Forecast For 2017/2018 Crop 中国市场消费能力下降或致2017年中国进口芝麻数量首现最近6年来负增长 The decline in China's market consumption capacity maybe lead to China's imports of sesame appearing first negative growth during recent six years. 从2003年中国开始大量进口芝麻以来，中国进口量经历3次上升周期。 2003-2006年、2008-2010年、2012-1016年这3个阶段为上升期。 Since China began to import large quantities of sesame in 2003, China's imports experienced three rising cycles. Three stages such as 2003 - 2006, 2008 - 2010 and 2012 - 1016 are rising cycles. 其中2013年、2014年、2015年、2016年，中国进口年递增分别达11.46%、29.03%、41.66%和15.78%，在2012-2016年间中国进口需求保持高速增长，5年年均增长23.84%。 China’s annual increasing rate of imports reached 11.46% in 2013, 29.03% in 2014, 41.66% in 2015 and 15.78% in 2016 respectively, during 2012-2016 China’s import demands kept increasing rapidly, five year’s annual average increasing rate maintained at 23.84%.

China Sesame Seed Import Market Forecast For 2017/2018 Crop 预计2017年中国进口芝麻数量将会降至大约80万吨（未列入海关统计边贸数量除外），比上年下降大约14.25%。 It is expected that the quantity of sesame imported by China in 2017 will be reduced to about 800,000 tons (excluding the quantity of border trade not to be listed in customs statistics), that is decreased by about 14.25% over last year.

China Sesame Seed Import Market Forecast For 2017/2018 Crop 各大主产地国本季总产量增减最终将取决于天气情况；中国进口芝麻总需求70-75万吨左右，如果总产量情况接近去年水平，供应基本能满足中国市场需求，价格保持坚挺，并随港口到货量波动；受全球经济持续回暖，大宗商品市场表现强劲，非美货币普遍走强等诸多利好因素刺激和影响，总体价格水平要好于去年；如果苏丹，埃塞，西非主产区、印度任一产区明显减产，供需将近紧平衡状态，压抑许久的市场情绪或将再度被激发，价格可能迅速攀升，并可能短时间到, 高位徘徊；地缘政治风险、美联储缩表以及灰犀牛风险和黑天鹅事件将加剧市场波动。 The total output of the major producing countries this season will ultimately depend on the weather situation; China's total demand for imported sesame is about 70-750,000 tons. If the total output situation close to last year's level, the supply can basically meet the demand, while prices remain strong and fluctuate along with volume of sesame arrived in the ports ; As the global economy continues to rebound, the overall price level is getting better than last year by strong performance of commodity markets, generally strong non-US currencies and many other positive factors to stimulate and influence; If anyone of Sudan, Ethiopia, West African main Producing areas and India significantly cut production, supply and demand will be close to tight equilibrium. Long-term depressed market sentiment may be excited once again, the price may rise rapidly, be shortly put in place and high wandering; Geopolitical risk, the Fed tapering off balance sheet, grey rhino risks and black swan events will exacerbate market volatility. 以上内容仅代表个人观点，不对任何交易及其结果负责 This statement is only personal views which cannot be held liable for any trading resulting from the views.

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