總體經濟展望與成長策略 Macroeconomic Outlook & Growth Strategy 報告人： 邱達生 台經院 副研究員 邱達生 台經院 副研究員 Darson Chiu, Associate Research Fellow

世界四大經濟體 USA JAPAN EURO CHINA

美日歐 USA Japan Euro area GDP(左軸) 民間消費(左軸) 民間投資(右軸) USA EURO JAPAN Source:.美國商業部經濟分析局、日本內閣府、歐盟統計局

美日歐 USA EURO JAPAN Source:.美國勞工部、日本總務省統計局、歐盟統計局 美國The Conference Board 、日本內閣府、OECD

失業率 USA JAPAN EURO USA

寬鬆貨幣政策 USA EURO JAPAN

美國雙赤字問題 USA USA: 2011 APEC Host 貿易逆差 2010年(1-2月)767億美元 FY 2009(2008/10-2009/9) 財政赤字14157億美元 FY 2010(2009/10-2010/3) 財政赤字7170億美元

美元實質有效匯率指數 USA

中國GDP與工業增加值成長率 CHINA 註：1. 國內生產總值增長率按可比價計算     2、固定資產投資為自年初累計數據 資料來源: 中國統計局

中國消費與投資 CHINA

中國進出口與人民幣匯率 CHINA RMB/USD For Comparison

中國CPI與主要利率 CHINA

全球採購經理人指數  Sources: Markit, ISM, JPMorgon.

全球採購經理人指數  Sources: Markit, ISM, JPMorgon.

APEC會員經濟體實質經濟成長率 2000-07 2008 2009 2010 2011 平均值 實際值 預測值 澳洲 3.2 2.4 1.3 2.6 2.8 汶萊 -1.9 0.2 0.6 n/a 加拿大 2.9 0.4 -2.6 3.0 1.9 智利 4.4 3.7 -1.5 5.0 4.7 中國 9.9 9.6 8.7 9.7 8.2 香港 5.3 2.1 -2.7 4.6 3.4 印尼 5.1 6.0 4.5 5.6 5.9 日本 1.7 -1.2 -5.2 1.5 1.1 韓國 5.2 2.3 4.0 馬來西亞 -1.7 5.4 墨西哥 -6.6 4.3 2.7 紐西蘭 -0.7 -0.9 巴布新幾內亞 1.8 6.7 5.5 秘魯 9.8 0.9 菲律賓 3.8 3.6 俄羅斯 7.0 -7.9 4.2 新加坡 1.4 -2.0 台灣 4.1 0.7 4.9 泰國 2.5 -2.3 美國 -2.4 越南 7.6 6.2 6.9

台灣經濟展望 預測值 2010年經濟成長率： 5.11% 民間消費成長率：2.07% 民間投資成長率：15.3%

世界經濟潛在挑戰 對持續復甦的挑戰 # 1: 刺激政策退場時機拿捏困難：持續成長vs.財政赤字 # 2: 保護主義以各種形式出現 # 3: 復甦的需求推升帶來的的潛在通膨隱憂，升息時機的決定意見紛歧 # 4: 先進國家的低利政策造成游資、熱錢尋找投資或投機標的，打壓或堅持資本流動自由的抉擇

APEC 成長策略 五大面向 平衡性成長：透過經濟政策來平衡全球不均現象，並提升經濟體生產力 包容性成長：確保社會各階層的經濟機會 綠色成長：確保成長兼顧環保，並發展綠色經濟 知識為基礎成長：強化創新環境，發展創新經濟 安全性成長：提供經濟活動的安全條件

APEC 成長策略 四大優先領域 結構改革：改善經商環境（企業獲利→投資動機→ 所得增加→ 稅收增加→ 社會安全網提升→ 消費增加） 人力資源發展：透過經濟與技術合作、能力建構 貿易暨投資自由化與便捷化 融資協助：協助中小企業取得資金、協助發展綠色產業

G-20高峰會 November 2008 Washington Summit: implement stimulus measures, avoid raising new barriers, financial reform etc. April 2009 London Summit: more stimulus measures, improve financial regulations, expand liquidity for emerging nations etc. September 2009 Pittsburgh Summit: prepare for exit strategies, stabilize financial markets, discourage protectionism, further DDA etc. June 2010 Toronto Summit: promote sustainable growth, create job opportunities etc. November 2010 Seoul Summit: create a more effective early warning system & global financial safety net etc.

G-20 Statements Supported by APEC “We recommended that Leaders strongly support the G20 Washington Declaration and reinforce the commitment to refrain from raising new barriers to trade and investment” the 20th APEC Ministerial Joint Statement, Lima, 2008. “We endorsed in full the Joint Statement of Ministers at the 20th APEC Ministerial Meeting”, the 16th APEC Leaders’ Declaration, Lima, 2008. “We will work together, and with other international fora, to ensure…growth that is inclusive, balanced and sustainable, supported by innovation and a knowledge-based economy…”, the 21st APEC Ministerial Joint Statement, Singapore, 2009. “We will work together to strengthen the momentum towards strong, sustainable and balanced global economic growth, as set out at the recent G-20 Summit in Pittsburgh”, the 17th APEC Leaders’ Declaration, Singapore, 2009. 18th APEC Leaders’ Meeting, Yokohama, to be held on 13-14 November 2010. Before then, APEC Leaders from Australia, Canada, China, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Korea, and USA will attend the G-20 Seoul Summit on 11-12 November 2010 first.

關鍵- 均衡與公平 New growth strategy → new set of equilibriums Balanced growth → to balance the trans-Pacific imbalances. (World Factory ↔ World Market) Inclusive growth → to balance social discrepancy. Green growth → to balance the use of limited resources between generations. Knowledge-based growth → the engine to fulfill above objectives. Secure growth → to provide fair conditions for growth.

成長策略的挑戰 The idea is to move from neoclassical profit maximization to more eco-economic multi-objective (social, economic & environmental) optimization. KBG is more like a decision variable, & SG is more like a constraint in the new function. Are 4 priority areas the optimal decision variables derived from the optimization process?

成長典範的挑戰 “Paradigms gain their status because they are more successful than their competitors in solving a few problems that the group of practitioners has come to recognize as acute” (Kuhn, 1996, p. 23). Paradigm-shift: a new paradigm to resolve an anomaly that an old paradigm fails to resolve. How to convert growth strategy into “growth paradigm” as the anomaly has been gradually resolved by time and business cycles instead of new paradigm?

2010年APEC主辦國經濟展望 2010主辦國-日本 2011主辦國-美國 2012主辦國-俄羅斯 1.6% 1.2% 3.7% 民間消費成長率 1.6% 1.2% 3.7% 民間投資成長率 -3.1% 3.9% 5.0% 失業率 5.2% 9.7% 8.3% 財政收支/GDP -7.9% -9.6% -4.0% 經常帳餘額 US$ 156 bn -US$ 0.46 bn US$ 69 bn 通貨膨脹率 -0.1% 1.0% 6.8%

References APEC AIMP Documents, Retrieved on April 20, 2010. Economist Intelligence Unit, Country Reports, Retrieved on April 21, 2010. EuroStat, Macroeconomic News Release, Retrieved on March 30, 2010. International Monetary Fund, Country Info, Retrieved on April 21, 2010. Japan Cabinet Office, Economic data, Retrieved on March 30, 2010. OECD, Leading indicators, Retrieved on March 30, 2010. US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Economic data, Retrieved on March 30, March 2010. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Economic data, Retrieved on March 30, 2010. US Conference Board, Leading indicators, Retrieved on March 30, 2010. 台灣經濟研究院景氣預測資料 2010年第一季 中國統計局發佈經濟數值 2010年3月 中國海關總署發佈經濟數值 2010年3月

謝謝！敬請指教 darson_chiu@tier.org.tw (02) 2586-5000 ext. 553