DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS DCA.S02L01 DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS For ecology and biology Using R 统计学发展史 戎可 13654664079 rongke@nefu.edu.cn

　　葛兰特与英国古典经济学家威廉·配第一同研究人类统计与人口普查方法，以此为基础发展现代人口统计学的架构，最为著名的成就是制作出第一张生命表，使计算人类某年之存活机率成为可能。 岩泽宏和, 戴华晶. 改变世界的134个概率统计故事. 湖南科学技术出版社, 长沙, 2016 John Graunt (1620 – 1674) Graunt was one of the first demographers, though by profession he was a haberdasher. wikipedia

　　配第在1670年执笔了《政治经济学》(Political economy, 1690)。这个书名成为格兰特与配第研究手法的代名词，也成为18世纪英国统计学的代名词。 岩泽宏和, 戴华晶. 改变世界的134个概率统计故事. 湖南科学技术出版社, 长沙, 2016 Sir William Petty FRS (1620 –1687) Petty was an English economist, scientist and philosopher. He first became prominent serving Oliver Cromwell and the Commonwealth in Ireland. He developed efficient methods to survey the land that was to be confiscated and given to Cromwell‘s soldiers. He also managed to remain prominent under King Charles II and King James II, as did many others who had served Cromwell. wikipedia

　　1657年将概率论公之于众之后，1659年惠更斯就与弟弟一起，对基于格兰特寿命表的各种概率问题进行了实际计算。对死亡法则进行概率计算，这可以说是史上首次的行为。 岩泽宏和, 戴华晶. 改变世界的134个概率统计故事. 湖南科学技术出版社, 长沙, 2016 Christiaan Huygens FRS (1629 –1695) Huygens was a prominent Dutch mathematician and scientist. He is known particularly as an astronomer, physicist, probabilist and horologist. wikipedia

　　1671年维特出版 Worth of Life Annuities Compared to Redemption Bonds，史上首次完成了人寿保险现价计算，以经为基础制定了保险金法案并提交议会。 岩泽宏和, 戴华晶. 改变世界的134个概率统计故事. 湖南科学技术出版社, 长沙, 2016 Johan de Witt or Jan de Witt (1625 –1672) Witt was a key figure in Dutch politics in the mid-17th century, when its flourishing sea trade in a period of globalisation made the United Provinces a leading European power during the Dutch Golden Age. De Witt controlled the Netherlands political system from around 1650 until shortly before his death in 1672, working with various factions from nearly all the major cities, especially his hometown, Dordrecht, and the hometown of his wife, Amsterdam. wikipedia

近代统计学之父 　　首次发现人类的身高与胸围几乎服从正态分布，提出BMI指数。人们开始接受“误差分布可以用在人类群体的统计性分析中”的想法，开启了统计学中正态分布时代的第一篇章。 岩泽宏和, 戴华晶. 改变世界的134个概率统计故事. 湖南科学技术出版社, 长沙, 2016 Lambert Adolphe Jacques Quetelet (1796 – 1874) Quetelet was a Belgian astronomer, mathematician, statistician and sociologist. He founded and directed the Brussels Observatory and was influential in introducing statistical methods to the social sciences. His name is sometimes spelled with an accent as Quételet. He developed the body mass index scale. (wikipedia)

　　1860年发表论文，说明气体分子的速度服从一种正态分布。这种正态分布被称为麦克斯韦分布(或者麦克斯韦-玻尔兹曼分布)，至此，正态分布在物理学中出现，且不仅仅作为观测误差的分布，也作为一种物理法则出现。 岩泽宏和, 戴华晶. 改变世界的134个概率统计故事. 湖南科学技术出版社, 长沙, 2016 James Clerk Maxwell FRS FRSE (1831 – 1879) was a Scottish scientist in the field of mathematical physics. His most notable achievement was to formulate the classical theory of electromagnetic radiation, bringing together for the first time electricity, magnetism, and light as manifestations of the same phenomenon. Maxwell's equations for electromagnetism have been called the "second great unification in physics" after the first one realised by Isaac Newton. (wikipedia)

最早总体(population)这个概念。 最早以“正态(normal)”表现正态分布(1877) 将统计学引入优生学和遗传学研究。 最早总体(population)这个概念。 最早以“正态(normal)”表现正态分布(1877) 首次使用“相关(correlation)”这个词(1869) 首创用r表示样本相关系数(1888) 首次提出“回归(reversion)”概念(1877) 岩泽宏和, 戴华晶. 改变世界的134个概率统计故事. 湖南科学技术出版社, 长沙, 2016 Sir Francis Galton, FRS (1822 –1911) Galton was an English Victorian statistician, progressive, polymath, sociologist, psychologist, anthropologist, eugenicist, tropical explorer, geographer, inventor, meteorologist, proto-geneticist, and psychometrician. He was knighted in 1909. (wikipedia)

数理统计学的创建 最晚到1895年，卡尔∙皮尔逊就确信了偏态分布的存在。 1901年，与高尔顿创办了《生物统计》杂志。 　　最晚到1895年，卡尔∙皮尔逊就确信了偏态分布的存在。 　　1901年，与高尔顿创办了《生物统计》杂志。 　　推断统计学的开山始祖：卡方检验 岩泽宏和, 戴华晶. 改变世界的134个概率统计故事. 湖南科学技术出版社, 长沙, 2016 Karl Pearson FRS (1857 – 1936) Pearson was an influential English mathematician and biostatistician. He has been credited with establishing the discipline of mathematical statistics. He founded the world's first university statistics department at University College London in 1911, and contributed significantly to the field of biometrics, meteorology, theories of social Darwinism and eugenics. Pearson was also a protégé and biographer of Sir Francis Galton. (wikipedia)

数理统计学的先驱 早于卡尔∙皮尔逊研究偏态分布，并且使用了与现代一致的概念(1889)。 1901年主导创建了丹麦精算师协会。 (1875) 　　早于卡尔∙皮尔逊研究偏态分布，并且使用了与现代一致的概念(1889)。 　　1901年主导创建了丹麦精算师协会。 (1875) 岩泽宏和, 戴华晶. 改变世界的134个概率统计故事. 湖南科学技术出版社, 长沙, 2016 Thorvald Nicolai Thiele (1838 – 1910) Thiele was a Danish astronomer and director of the Copenhagen Observatory.[1] He was also an actuary and mathematician, most notable for his work in statistics, interpolation and the three-body problem. (wikipedia)

t分布 埃奇沃斯展开 埃奇沃斯级数 最大似然估计的渐进理论 随机过程 配合度检验 相关系数 岩泽宏和, 戴华晶. 改变世界的134个概率统计故事. 湖南科学技术出版社, 长沙, 2016 Francis Ysidro Edgeworth FBA (1845 – 1926) Edgeworth was an Anglo-Irish philosopher and political economist who made significant contributions to the methods of statistics during the 1880s. From 1891 onward he was appointed the founding editor of The Economic Journal. (wikipedia)

推断统计学的诞生 发现了t分布，费舍尔正是在此基础上开创了推断统计学。 “关联”皮尔逊和费舍尔，推动了推断统计学的诞生。 　　“关联”皮尔逊和费舍尔，推动了推断统计学的诞生。 　　发现了t分布，费舍尔正是在此基础上开创了推断统计学。 Student. The probable error of a mean. Biometrika, 1908，6(1):1-25. William Sealy Gosset (1876 – 1937) Gosset was an English statistician. He published under the pen name Student, and developed the Student's t-distribution. (wikipedia)

推断统计学的创始 1912 最大似然法 1912 数据性地导出t分布并广义化 1915 提出并证明自由度的概念 1922 点估计理论 1925 出版《研究者用的统计方法》，这是第一本推断统计学的教科书 1935 出版《实验计划方法》 Fisher R A. Statistical methods for research workers. Genesis Publishing Pvt Ltd, 1925. Fisher R A. The design of experiments. Oliver And Boyd; Edinburgh; London, 1937. Sir Ronald Aylmer Fisher FRS (1890 –1962) Fisher was a British statistician and biologist who used mathematics to combine Mendelian genetics and natural selection. This contributed to the revival of Darwinism in the early 20th century revision of the theory of evolution known as the modern synthesis. (wikipedia)

推断统计学的发展 引入置信区间的概念(1928,1935) 引入统计检验中两类错误的概念(1928) 　　引入置信区间的概念(1928,1935) 　　引入统计检验中两类错误的概念(1928) 　　统计检验中奈曼-皮尔逊辅助定理(1935) 　　发展了区间估计的方法 　　与埃贡·皮尔逊共同将费舍尔的工作发展到了崭新的高度 Jerzy Neyman (1894 – 1981) Neyman was a Polish mathematician and statistician who spent the first part of his professional career at various institutions in Warsaw, Poland and then at University College London, and the second part at the University of California, Berkeley. Neyman first introduced the modern concept of a confidence interval into statistical hypothesis testing and co-devised null hypothesis testing (in collaboration with Egon Pearson). (wikipedia)

推断统计学的发展 促进了Neyman–Pearson lemma统计假设检验的发展。 　　奈曼－皮尔逊与费舍尔关于统计检验的哲学甚至不同，我们一般将费舍尔的统计检验称为显著性检验，而将奈曼－皮尔逊的统计检验称为假设检验。 Egon Sharpe Pearson, CBE FRS (1895 – 1980) Pearson was one of three children and the son of Karl Pearson and, like his father, a leading British statistician. (wikipedia)

推断统计学的发展 克拉梅尔─拉奥不等式 精算师(1920-1948) Harald Cramér (1893 – 1985) 　　克拉梅尔─拉奥不等式 　　精算师(1920-1948) Harald Cramér (1893 – 1985) Cramér was a Swedish mathematician, actuary, and statistician, specializing in mathematical statistics and probabilistic number theory. John Kingman described him as "one of the giants of statistical theory". (wikipedia)

推断统计的应用 　　自1950年以来，戴明多次于日本发表在管理学方面的演说，内容包括改进设计、服务、通过统计学上的方差分析、假设检定等方法进行的产品品质、测试，以致日本货迅速占领全球市场。 　　1951年日本设立戴明奖，以奖励在严格的质量管理竞赛中获得优胜的公司。戴明博士对日本的贡献影响了日本的制造业及工商业，在日本被视为英雄人物之一，但在美国则在他死后才开始成名。 William Edwards Deming (1900 – 1993) Deming was an American engineer, statistician, professor, author, lecturer, and management consultant. (wikipedia)