US Institutional Investors: Asset Allocation Outlook 美國機構投資人：資產配置展望 摩根富林明資產管理 台灣區負責人 高桂卿 Dec 10, 2010

US Institutional Investors: Market Outlook 美國機構投資人：資產配置展望 Anticipate a rising rate environment (72% expect increasing yields over the next 12 months)預期上調的利率環境(72%的機構投資人預期未來12個月的殖利率將上揚) Have positive expectations for equity returns (60% expect an increase over one year, building to 70% over a five-year horizon)對股票報酬持正面看法(60%的機構投資人預期 未來一年會有上漲，預期五年期間會上漲的投資人則達70%) Believe the outlook across most alternatives would improve in the ensuing 12 months, with the most positive outlook for private equity相信在未來12個月期間多數的另類投資 展望將有所進展，對私募股權(private equity)的部份持最樂觀的看法 See the greatest opportunities over the intermediate term in real estate and hedge funds以中期來看，房地產和避險基金的投資具有最佳機會 View Asia/Pacific as the geographic region of greatest opportunity亞洲 /太平洋地區被 視為具有絕佳的投資機會 1

Institutional Investors Asset Allocation: Past, Present, Future 機構投資人資產配置：過去、現在及未來 2

Objectives and Challenges in Asset Allocation Decisions 資產配置決策的目標與挑戰 3

Investment Outlook for Alternatives: Next 12 months 另類投資的展望：未來的12個月 4

Alternative Opportunities: Next 3 to 5 Years 另類投資的機會：未來的3年至5年

Institutional Interest in Alternatives 機構投資人對另類資產的偏好 6

GMAG Strategic Views 全球多重資產團隊(GMAG)策略觀點 Balance sheets likely to be deleveraged over next 3-5 years 資產負債表列未來3到5年可能存在去杠杆化的趨勢 Households家計單位 Governments政府部門 Fiscal solvency: outlook for risk assets depends on which outcome: 財政償付能力：風險性資產的未來展望將 取決於以下結果 Growth – debt burden reduced by strong growth經濟成長 - 強勁經濟成長降低債務負擔 Austerity – debt burden reduced by fiscal retrenchment政府緊縮政策 –緊縮財政降低債務負擔 Inflation – debt burden inflated away通貨膨漲 –通貨膨漲造成負債減少 Restructuring – haircuts 債務重整 –債務折讓 Repudiation – default消減債務–違約 UK focusing on option 2; US exploring option 3; peripheral Europe may get to option 4英國專注在方案2,美國在探詢方案3,泛歐可能要尋求方案4 Expect sub-trend economic growth仍預期走向低於長期平均的經濟成長 Cycles likely to be shorter and shallower景氣迴圈變短且幅度變小 Investors likely to require higher risk premia投資人願意接受較高的風險溢酬 2009/10 upturn a bear market bounce rather than a new bull market2009/10為熊市反彈而非進入新一期牛市

Asset allocation – Overweight stocks vs. bonds 資產配置–相對於債券加碼股票部位 Asset allocation – no change in stocks vs. bonds資產配置–我們對股債看法不變 no strategy changes during the week本周未改變操作策略 as mentioned, looking for opportunities to add to Japan (but not to S/B)尋找加碼日本的機會(非策略性加減碼) still “riding” the post QE announcement washout 順勢操作QE宣佈後的波動市場 Bonds – Preference for credit over govt bonds債券市場–相對於政府債我們偏好信用市場 broadly speaking, global macro data improving大致上全球經濟資料有轉好的趨勢 concerned that developments in Europe accelerating more quickly than expected對歐債問題的演變比預期來得快感到憂心 banks and financials still "the weakest link“銀行與金融業仍是最弱的一環 see GMAG weekly for updated views on inflation in China請參閱本周GMAG提出對中國通膨的最新看法 Equities – Preference for US, UK, Emerging Markets and Hong Kong股票市場 –偏好美國、英國、新興市場 與香港 Valuations against history are attractive rather than compelling就價值面來看，相對過去而言，具有吸引力但還不足讓人信服 Overweight: US, UK, Emerging Markets and Hong Kong加碼 :美國、英國、新興市場與香港 Underweight: Europe ex UK and Australia減碼 :除英國之外的歐洲與澳洲 *Note: the GMAG positions are those in a typical multi-asset portfolio (within GMAG) with a full opportunity set. Positions as at 26 November 2010

JP Morgan Asset Management: A global financial leader JP Morgan Asset Management:全球金融的領導者 Investment experience and insight that few other firms can match投資經驗及卓越眼光領先群雄 $1.3tn in AUM for J. P. Morgan Asset Management*1.3兆美元的管理資產規模 $billion as of September 30, 2010 Well-managed financial institution overseeing portfolios across the entire investment continuum, from public to private markets管理嚴謹的金融機構自 公開至私人市場皆能全方位監管投資組合配置 Ability to offer a broad range of core and alternative strategies具備提供廣泛的核心投資與另類 投資之專業能力 Investment professionals operating in every major world market於全球各主要市場設立專業 投資作業團隊 Leadership during economic and financial system crisis在經濟和金融危機時期扮演關鍵 的領導角色 * Based on the AUM for the Asset Management division of JPMorgan Chase & Co., which includes J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Private Client Services and Private Bank. Data as of September 30, 2010 9 9