第三篇 規 劃 管理者是決策者 Decision Making 7 各節重點 7.1 描述決策過程的八個步驟 第三篇　規　劃 7 管理者是決策者 Decision Making 各節重點 7.1 描述決策過程的八個步驟 7.2 解釋管理者做決策的四種方式 7.3 定義決策及制定情境 7.4 描述不同的決策模式和影響決策的謬誤 7.5 確認有效決策的技巧

決策的程序 The Decision Making Process 7.1 決策的程序 The Decision Making Process 決策本身與公司組織可以做什麼，或能做什麼息息相關。 The decisions play an important role in what an organization has to do or is able to do. 組織內每個人，無論在哪一個層級或身處何處，皆需要做決策 (decision)，也就是需在兩個或多個方案中做選擇。 Managers at all levels and in all areas of organizations make decision. That is, they make choices. Problem - an obstacle that makes it difficult to achieve a desired goal or purpose. Decision - making a choice from two or more alternatives.

Exhibit 7-1 The Decision Making Process

步驟1：界定問題 Identifying a Problem 團隊效能不彰、客戶棄我們而去、所做的計畫不再重要。決 策制定的過程從發現問題 (problem) 開始，也就是發現理想 情況與現實狀況之間存在了某種差距。 Your team is dysfunctional, your customers leaving, or your plans are no longer relevant. Every decision starts with a problem, a discrepancy between an existing and a desired condition. Characteristics of Problems A problem becomes a problem when a manager becomes aware of it. There is pressure to solve the problem. The manager must have the authority, information, or resources needed to solve the problem.

步驟2 ：設立決策準則 Identifying Decision Criteria 管理者一旦界定問題後， 接下來就是確認決策準則，管 理者必須決定那些因素是與決策相關的。 Once a manager has identified a problem, manager must identify the decision criteria that are important or relevant to solving the problem, such as : Costs that will be incurred (investments required) Risks likely to be encountered (chance of failure) Outcomes that are desired (growth of the firm)

步驟3：決定準則權重 Allocating Weight to the Criteria 如果前一步驟的各個決策準則重要性並不一致，那麼決策者就必須決定準則的權重，以便在決策中區分輕重緩急。 Decision criteria are not of equal importance: Assigning a weight to each item places the items in the correct priority order of their importance in the decision-making process. Important Decision Criteria

步驟4：發展方案 Developing Alternatives 要求決策者列出問題的各種可行方案，在本步驟中並不會對 各方案加以評估，而只是將方案列出。 Identifying viable alternatives : Alternatives are listed (without evaluation) that can resolve the problem.

步驟5：分析方案 Analyzing Alternatives 一旦找出可行方案後，決策者應該審慎評估每一個方案，並根據步驟2 所發展的準則，透過這樣的分析，每個方案的優劣即可清楚呈現。 Appraising each alternative’s strengths and weaknesses An alternative’s appraisal is based on its ability to resolve the issues related to the criteria and criteria weight.

步驟6：選擇方案 Selecting an Alternative 第6 個步驟是從上述的各種方案中，選出最佳的解決方案。 Choosing the best alternative The alternative with the highest total weight is chosen. 步驟7：執行方案 Implementing the Alternative 此步驟強調的是將決策付諸行動，執行包括將方案有關的訊 息傳給相關的人士，並獲得他們的認同與承諾。 Putting the chosen alternative into action Conveying the decision to and gaining commitment from those who will carry out the alternative

Evaluating Decision Effectiveness 步驟8：評估決策的效能 Evaluating Decision Effectiveness 決策過程最後一個步驟，是檢視決策結果是否解決了問題，亦即步驟6所選定的方案與步驟7的執行是否達到預期的效果。 The soundness of the decision is judged by its outcomes. How effectively was the problem resolved by outcomes resulting from the chosen alternatives? If the problem was not resolved, what went wrong?

Managers Making Decisions 7.2 管理者也是決策者 Managers Making Decisions 組織的每個人都在做決策，但對於管理者，決策是其工作中 特別重要的一部分。 Although everyone in an organization makes decisions, decision making is particularly important to managers. 管理者所做的任何事情幾乎都包含了決策，且大部分決策是 例行性的。就像你每天決定何時吃晚餐，這種決策簡單而可 以立即處理，因為你已做過上千次同樣的決策，讓你幾乎忘 了它也是一種決策。 Almost everything a manager does involves making decisions. And most decision making is routine. Even though a decision seems easy or has been faced by a manager a number of time before, it still is a decision.

Exhibit 7-5: Decisions Managers May Make

理性的決策 Rational Decision-Making Rational Decision-Making — describes choices that are logical and consistent while maximizing value. Deadly Snowstorm over Mt. Everest Over 200 Dead Bodies on Mount Everest George Mallory missing in 1924

有限理性的決策 Bounded Rationality 管理者決策的模式是有限理性(bounded rationality)，在 個人資訊處理能力的限制下，某限制範圍內做出完全理性的 決策，原因是因為管理者不會有完整的資源分析所有的方案， 因此，只要所做的決策還差強人意就行了，也就是滿意解 (satisfice)的說法，此模式下不太可能有最佳解。 Bounded Rationality - decision making that’s rational, but limited (bounded) by an individual’s ability to process information. Satisfice - accepting solutions that are “good enough.”

直覺式的決策 Intuitive Decision-Making 直覺式決策是一種由個人經驗和判斷累積而成的潛意識決策方式。 Intuitive decision- making — Making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment.

The Role Of Evidence-Based Management 以事證管理為依據的決策 The Role Of Evidence-Based Management 事證管理的決策，亦即系統性的應用可獲得事證，以改善管理實務。 Evidence-Based Management, EBMgt, is the “systematic use of the best available evidence to improve management practice.” EBMgt 有四個要素：(1) 決策的專業及判斷；(2) 管理者評估的外部事證；(3) 意見、喜好、股東價值；(4) 相關的內部因素：包括環境、組織成員。 The four essential elements of EBMgt are : (1) the decision maker’s expertise and judgment; (2) external evidence that’s been evaluated by the decision maker; (3) opinions, preferences, and values of those who have a stake in the decision; (4) and relevant internal factors such as context, circumstances, and organizational members.

決策及決策情境的類型 7.3 結構良好的問題和程式化決策 Types of Decisions and Decision- Making Conditions 結構良好的問題和程式化決策 Structured Problems and Programmed Decisions 結構良好的問題 (structured problems)，因為它們是很直接、熟悉而容易界定的。 Structured Problems are straight-forward, familiar, and easily defined. 程式化決策 (programmed decision)，程式化決策適用於重複或例行的情境。 programmed decision — a repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach. Ex : 搭交通車上班

程序 (procedure) 是指管理者用來處理結構化問題的一系列相互關連的步驟。 A procedure is a series of sequential steps a manager uses to respond to a structure problem. Ex : 大學註冊手續 規則 (rule) 是限定管理者行事範圍的明示條文。 A rule is an explicit statement that tells a manager what can or cannot be done. 政策 (policy) 提供管理者在特殊情境下的思考指引。 Policy is a guideline for making a decision. In contrast to a rule, a policy establishes general parameters for the decision maker rather than specifically stating what should or should not be done. Ex : 退貨政策

非結構的問題和非程式化決策 Unstructured Problems and Nonprogrammed Decision 組織所面臨的許多情況是屬於非結構的問題，亦即該問題是新的、不常見的，相關的資訊也不完全。 Ex : 颱風天上班? Many organizational situations involve unstructured problems, which are problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete. 當問題的結構不良時，管理者常須以非程式化決策的方式，發展出特定的解決辦法。非程式化決策係處理特殊、不常發生的問題，需量身訂製特別的解決方案。 When problems are unstructured, managers must rely on non-programmed decision making in order to develop unique solutions. Non-programmed decisions are unique and nonrecurring and involve custom-made solutions.

Exhibit 7-7: Programmed Versus Non-programmed Decisions

決策情境 Decision-Making Situations 確定情況 Certainty 決策時所面臨的最理想狀況就是確定的情境，亦即所有可能方案的結果都是已知。 A situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is known. 風險情況 Risk 較常見的情況是有風險的存在，所謂風險，是指決策者可以預估各方案成敗與結果的機率。 A situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood (probability) of outcomes that result from the choice of particular alternatives.

不確定情況 Uncertainty 如果你要作一項決策，卻發現對可能的結果與機率一無所知時，我們稱這種為不確定情況。 What happens if you face a decision where you are not certain about the outcomes and can’t even make reasonable probability estimates? We call this condition uncertainty.

決策風格 Decision-Making Styles 7.4 決策風格 Decision-Making Styles 線性-非線性思考 Linear – Nonlinear Thinking 線性思考 (linear thinking style) 以外部資料為依據，並以 理性、邏輯性思考來做決策並行動。 Ex : 依據財報投資 Linear Thinking Style - a person’s tendency to use external data/facts; the habit of processing information through rational, logical thinking. 非線性思考 (nonlinear thinking style) 則是以感受或直覺 性等內在資訊為主，直覺的做判斷和行動。 Ex : 彩券隨機選號 Nonlinear Thinking Style - a person’s preference for internal sources of information; a method of processing this information with internal insights, feelings, and hunches.

決策謬誤 Decision-Making Biases and Errors 管理者制定決策時，不僅是採用個人特有的決策風格，許多人運用經驗法則或直覺 (heuristics) 以簡化決策過程。 Managers not only use their own particular style, they may use “rules of thumb”, or heuristics, to simplify their decision making.

當決策者傾向認為他們知道的比做的多，或對自己本身與所能貢獻績效抱持不切實際的正面看法，便出現過度自信偏差。 Overconfidence Bias - holding unrealistically positive views of oneself and one’s performance. 立即滿意偏差 決策者追求立即的回報並避免立即的成本，這類型決策者會選擇提供立即報酬的方案，而不考慮到未來。 Immediate Gratification Bias - choosing alternatives that offer immediate rewards and avoid immediate costs. 定錨效應 是指決策者會執著於決策初期所接收到的資訊，而無法因應後續接收到的資訊而調整決策方向。 Anchoring Effect - fixating on initial information and ignoring subsequent information.

當決策者以既有偏見選擇性來組織並詮釋事件，便產生選擇性觀點偏差。 Selective Perception Bias - selecting, organizing and interpreting events based on the decision maker’s biased perceptions. 佐證偏差決策者會不斷蒐集資訊來佐證之前的決策，並對反駁先前決策的資訊大打折扣。 Confirmation Bias - seeking out information that reaffirms past choices while discounting contradictory information. 框依偏差是指決策者會選擇並凸顯問題情境的某幾個面向，而忽略其他面向。 Framing Bias - selecting and highlighting certain aspects of a situation while ignoring other aspects.

接近性偏差指決策者傾向回憶最近發生且印象最深刻的事件。 Availability Bias - losing decision-making objectivity by focusing on the most recent events. 當決策者判斷一件事情的機率，是以參考與這件事類似的其他事件為基準，稱為重現偏差。 Representation Bias - drawing analogies and seeing identical situations when none exist. 隨機偏差是指管理者試圖從隨機發生的事件中創造意義。 Randomness Bias - creating unfounded meaning out of random events.

沈沒成本錯誤是指決策者忘記現階段的決策不能修正過去。 Sunk Costs Errors - forgetting that current actions cannot influence past events and relate only to future consequences. 若決策者急於將功勞歸諸自己，卻將失敗怪罪別人，則稱為自私偏差 。 Self-Serving Bias - taking quick credit for successes and blaming outside factors for failures. 後見之明偏差 是指決策者在事件結果已經真正揭曉時，才無根據地認為他們應該可以準確的預測到事件的最終結果。 Hindsight Bias - mistakenly believing that an event could have been predicted once the actual outcome is known (after-the-fact).

Exhibit 7-12: Overview of Managerial Decision Making

Decision Making for Today’s World 7.5 現代社會的有效決策 Decision Making for Today’s World 在目前步調快速的企業環境中，管理者如何制定決策？ What do managers need to do to make effective decisions in today’s fast moving world? 瞭解文化差異 Understand cultural differences 知道何時該放棄 Know when it’s time to call it quits 當一個有效能的決策者 Use an effective decision making process 建立察覺環境變異時，可以迅速調整的組織 Build an organization that can spot the expected and quickly adopt to the changed environment.