中国社会保护概况 Overview of Social Protection in China 走向人人享有保障的社会 周弘（ZHOU Hong） 2019， 罗马Rome

A great transformation in China 2016 ，国际社保协会ISSA将“社会保障杰出成就奖”（2014——2016）授予中华人民共和国政府，以表彰我国近年来在扩大社会保障覆盖面工作中取得的卓越成就。 “great achievement in social security” to Chinese government, to acknowledge achievement in extending social security coverage. 数十年社会变迁。 Decades of social transformation 从农业向工业社会From rural to industrial society, 从计划向市场经济From planned to market economy, 从社会保护政策到社保法律出台From policy to legal provision of social protection. 2019/12/6

I. 中国社会保障制度发展简史 A concise history of SS development 全国解放前 Pre-1949, As a social ideal and scattered experiments, 计划经济时代 During the time of “planed economy”, Why a “dual society” was a legitimate choice? 1980年代的改革Reforms in the 1980s, 打破“铁饭碗”Breaking the “iron rice bowl”, 1990年代的讨论Debates and construction in the 1990s, 建立社会保险体制Creation of social insurance system, 21世纪 21st century, 城镇化和立法 urbanization and legalization. 2019/12/6

II 初期建设1949～1978 pre-reform 一 就业保障的源起（1949～1957） “employment security” （1）保护劳动者的执政初衷和最初的制度实验 early experiment （2）将实现工业化和现代化作为国家使命 priority: industrializatio 二 与优先发展工业的战略相适应的社会保险（1950～1955） （1）三种不同的城镇保障制度 3 kinds of urban social protection （2）城乡二元的保障体系 dual social protection 三 劳动保险的制度雏形（1955～1966年）labor insurance （1）变动中的劳动保险制度：快速扩面和统一标准 extending coverage （2）“条块分割”与标准的不统一 different provisions and standards 四 “文化大革命”和劳动保险的“单位化”（1966～1978） working unit security during the Cultural Revolution 2019/12/6

III 从“企业保险”到社会保险 （1978～1991） From enterprise insurance to Social Insurance 20世纪80年代的中国：就业方式的变革: 市场就业的出现 Changes of employment in the 1980s—emergence of market employment. 市场竞争后，养老金负担 轻重不一。 Market competition and different pension burdens—inequality. 国营企业的养老金统筹和个人缴费 Introduction of pooling and individual contribution for pension programs 从 “就业保障”到“待业保险”：就业市场化不断深入 From “employment security” to “waiting-for-job insurance”. 2019/12/6

IV 社会主义市场经济与社保改革 Social Market Economy and Social Security Reforms during 1990s “33号文件”奠定养老保险的改革基础是社会保险 Document #33, laid ground for old age insurance 从“待业保险”到失业保险 From “waiting-for-job insurance” to unemployment insurance 建立社会统筹与个人账户相结合的养老保险制度 Old age insurance fund pooling and individual account “44号文件”启动医疗保险制度改革——从“劳动保险”走向“社会保险” Document # 44 and launch of health insurance 工伤保险与城镇低保制度的建立 Establishment of employment injury insurance and social relief 社会化的体系建设 socialization of the system 2019/12/6

V 21世纪的改革：走向社会公平 Reforms in the new century-towards social equality 1. 农民社会的变迁及农村养老保障改革的最初尝试 Changes in the rural areas and attempt to reform “农民工”的社会保障 social security for “Peasant Workers” 新型农村社会养老保险（“新农保”） New type of old age pension for peasants 新型农村医疗合作（“新农合”） New type of health cooperation system for peasants 2. 统筹城乡的最低生活保障制度 Integration of urban and rural social assistance programs 3. 公共部门与企业养老保险并轨 Integration of pension programs for public sectors and enterprises 4. 中国社会保障的法制化建设 Legal provisions: social insurance law 2019/12/6

多层保障体系 养老补贴、医疗救助、低保制度 2019/12/6 国家基本社会保障 （养老、医疗、失业、 工伤、生育等） 主体层 保底层 补充层 补充保险 商业 保险 2019/12/6

Financial Sustainability of Basic Pension Insurance 面临的挑战和问题：财政可持续问题 Financial Sustainability of Basic Pension Insurance 4. 未来累积财政负担预测（单位：亿元） Cumulative Financial Burden Forecast in the Future 年份 Year 城镇职工养老金 Pension Fund for Urban Employees 城乡居民养老金 Pension Fund for Urban and Rural Residents 2018 30,348 -17,377 2038 -108,400 -391,056 2020 91,822 -53,777 2040 -196,836 -424,778 2022 139,632 -91,232 2042 -300,991 -457,651 2024 174,206 -130,570 2044 -422,204 -489,739 2026 189,791 -170,693 2046 -556,905 -520,780 2028 180,679 -210,130 2048 -699,326 -550,406 2030 144,007 -247,785 2050 -845,458 -578,447 2032 94,413 -284,943 养老保险总累积财政负担 Total Cumulative Financial Burden -1,423,905 2034 35,762 -321,245 2036 -31,831 -356,630 2050年城镇职工养老保险的累计财政负担现值为84.55万亿元，城乡居民养老保险为57.84万亿元，合计基本养老保险的累积财政负担现值为142.39万亿元，是2018年GDP的161.2%。 Based the 5% interest rate, transfer the cumulative financial burden into present value in 2018, we find that the cumulative financial burden will be as high as CNB84.55 trillion from the pension insurance for urban employees and CNY57.84 trillion from the basic pension insurance for urban and rural residents, totaling CNY142.39 trillion, representing 161.2% of the GDP in 2018, in 2050.

挑战和问题：统筹层次低 Low Level of Pooling “The 13th Five-Year Plan outlines”: ‘To improve the personal account system of pension insurance for employees, to improve the incentive mechanism to encourage contributors. Implement the nationwide management for basic pension and establish a reasonable benefits adjustment mechanism.’ 《十三五规划纲要》指出，“完善职工养老保险个人账户制度，健全多缴多得激励机制。实现职工基础养老金全国统筹，建立基本养老金合理调整机制。” 2018年5月，国务院印发《关于建立企业职工基本养老保险基金中央调剂制度的通知》，决定建立养老保险基金中央调剂制度，自2018年7月1日起实施，迈出全国统筹的第一步。 In May 2018, The State Council：on establishing the central adjustment system for urban employees’ basic pension funds, to be implemented starting 1 July 2018. “Report on the Work of the Government (2019)” pointed out that ‘We will speed up reforms in the provincial-level management of pension insurance funds, continue to increase the proportion of enterprise workers’ basic pension funds under central government allocation’. 《2019年国务院政府工作报告》中提到，要“加快推进养老保险省级统筹改革，继续提高企业职工基本养老保险基金中央调剂比例”。距离2020年还有不到两年的时间，就此来看，在2020年实现全国统筹存在难度。

地区统筹存在诸多问题 The Problems Caused by Regional Management of Pension Funds The low level of pooling is an important factor causing the problems such as unclear contribution base and low compliance rate. Regional management has weaken the binding of the central policies. The local governments will set the parameters according to the local conditions, resulting in low SSC in rich areas while high SSC in poor areas. Regional management reduces the financial sustainability of basic pension insurance. There are a large number of fund balances in wealthy regions, while fund gaps in poor areas continue to widen. This structural contradiction further exacerbates the financial sustainability of basic pension insurance. Regional management has hindered basic pension insurance from playing an inter-regional income redistribution function. Regional management is not conducive to the standard management of funds and multi-channel investment, it is difficult to maintain and increase the value of pension funds. 统筹层次低是造成缴费基数、缴费率等乱象的重要因素。地区统筹导致了顶层制度的约束力弱化，各地会“因地制宜”的规定缴费参数，造成了富裕地区缴费率低，贫困地区足额缴费的现象。 地区统筹降低了基本养老保险的财务可持续性。富裕地区基金存在大量结余，而贫困地区的基金缺口不断扩大，这种结构性矛盾使基本养老保修的财务可持续性进一步恶化。 地区统筹阻碍了基本养老保险发挥区域间收入再分配功能。 地区统筹不利于基金的规范管理和多渠道投资，难以做到养老基金的保值增值。

Unclear Contribution Base and Low Compliance Rate 缴费基数不实、缴费合规率低 Unclear Contribution Base and Low Compliance Rate According to 2016 white paper on social security of Chinese enterprises, more than 70% of enterprises fail to comply the SSC base with actual salary of employees. Among them, more than 30% of the enterprises pay fees at the lowest base whereas only 25% of the SSC base is fully compliant. 《2016中国企业社保白皮书》指出超过7成的企业未按照职工工资实际核定社保缴费基数。其中3成以上的企业统一按最低基数缴费，社保缴费基数完全合规的单位仅占25%。 Since 2012, the contribution rate of basic pension insurance for employers in Zhejiang Province has been 14%. In 2014, the contribution rate of basic pension insurance required for employers in Shenzhen was only 14%. In 2015, Guangdong also unified the contribution rate of basic pension insurance for enterprise employees to 14%. 2014年，深圳市的社会基本养老保险单位缴费比例只要求14%。自2012年起，浙江统一全省用人单位的基本养老保险费缴费比例为14%。2015年，广东将企业职工基本养老保险的单位缴费比例统一为14%。 The reasons for the above problems are as follows: 1. The nominal contribution rate is too high, resulting in a heavy payment burden and low enthusiasm for payment. 2. The level of social pooling is low, and local policies are different. 3. Low SSC becomes an important bargaining chip for regional competition. 造成上述乱象的症结在于： 1.名义缴费率过高，缴费负担太重，缴费积极性低。 2.统筹层次低，各地制度参差不齐。 3.低社保缴费率成为地区间竞争的重要筹码。

Unclear Contribution Base and Low Compliance Rate 缴费基数不实，缴费合规率低 Unclear Contribution Base and Low Compliance Rate 征管体制改革面临难题 It is Difficult to Reform the Collection and Management System 2018年7月，《国税地税征管体制改革方案》明确了从2019年1月1日起，将基本养老保险费、基本医疗保险费、失业保险费、工伤保险费、生育保险费等各项社会保险费交由税务部门统一征收。。 In July, 2018, the “Reform Plan of National Tax and Local Tax Collection and Management System” clarified that from January 1, 2019, basic pension insurance fees, basic medical insurance fees, unemployment insurance fees, work injury insurance fees, and maternity insurance fees will be collected by the tax authorities. As soon as the policy was introduced, it triggered a strong reaction from the society. At the State Council executive meeting on September 18, Premier Li Keqiang asked the State Taxation Administration and the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security to jointly voice out, "Before the reform of the social security collection agency is completed, all localities will maintain the existing social security policy.“ “Report on the Work of the Government (2019)” pointed out that ‘We will lower the share borne by employers for urban workers’ basic aged-care insurance, and localities may cut contributions down to 16%. The social insurance premium collection methods currently in operation will be kept unchanged. No locality should take any measure that increases the burden on small and micro enterprises when reforming their collection systems, or require, on their own, that longstanding arrears be paid off in a lump sum.’ 9月18日的国务院常务会议上，李克强总理出面要求税务总局和人社部共同发声，“在社保征收机构改革到位前，各地一律保持现有社保政策不变。” 《2019年国务院政府工作报告》明确，下调城镇职工基本养老保险单位缴费比例，各地可降至16%。稳定现行征缴方式，各地在征收体制改革过程中不得采取增加小微企业实际缴费负担的做法，不得自行集中青椒历史欠费

The Issue of Conversion Costs has not been Resolved 转制成本问题尚未解决 The Issue of Conversion Costs has not been Resolved The History of the Conversion Costs: China’s pension insurance system has long been implemented on a pay-as-you-go financing model. From 1991 to 1997, the system began to shift from the pay-as-you-go system to the partial accumulation system, and the reform was basically completed in 1997. Therefore the conversion cost mainly met the demand of the groups without individual account but in the need of social security funds. 转制成本的产生： 中国的养老保险制度长期实行的是现收现付的筹资模式，从1991--1997年开始从现收现付制向部分积累制转变，1997年基本定型；转制成本主要是由没有个人账户的那一部分群体对社会保障资金的需求所产生的。 转制成本包含： 对1997年“统账结合”制度实施后已经离退休人员按国家原来规定需要发放的基本养老金； 在新制度实施时尚未退休但已工作多年的职工需要将其已工作年限视同缴。 The Composition of the Conversion Costs: These groups included the retried workers under "combine social pooling with individual accounts" in 1997, and the workers, who needed tie the working years to contribution year, received the benefit. The conversion cost is one of the root causes blurring the financial responsibility of the basic pension insurance. If it is not solved as early as possible, it will not be conducive to the development of the defined contribution system. We hope that the conversion cost will be addressed by measures such as converting to state-owned assets. 转制成本是导致基本养老保险财政责任边界模糊的根源之一，如不尽早解决将不利于养老保险基金实现财务自我平衡。 希望未来能通过划转国有资产等措施予以解决。

改革目标 Reform Goals 1. 养老金体系的功能定位 Pension Insurance System’s Targeted Functions 第一支柱:保障老年人口的基本生活需求,要求全覆盖，筹资模式适合采用现收现付制，同时代内调节和代际调节收入分配的功能。 第二、三支柱：提高老年人口的生活质量，体现效率，保障制度的可持续性，筹资模式适合采用完全积累制。 The first pillar of pension system is targeted to guarantee the basic living needs of elderly population, which requires full coverage. Pay-as-you-go system is the suitable financing mode. It also plays an important role in generational adjustment and inter-generational adjustment of income distribution. The second and third pillars are to improve the quality of life of the elderly. The requirement is to reveal the efficiency and ensure sustainability of the system. The financing mode is suitable to adopt the mode of full accumulation. 2. 未来的改革目标 Reform Goals in the Future First, establish a fair and compliant SSC mechanism featuring reasonable burden and convenient collection on the payment side; Second, establish an incentive mechanism featuring compliance, equity, reasonable benefit, “more payment, more benefit” and “longer payment, more benefit” on the benefit side; Third, enhance the financial sustainability of the system and establish a long-acting system operation mechanism; Fourth, realize a positive income distribution within generation and across generations to narrow the national income gap; Fifth, realize national pooling and streamline chaotic local policies; Sixth, establish a firm multi-pillar pension system to satisfy pension needs of different groups; Seventh, build information exchange and communication mechanism, improve the insured's trust in the system. 一、在缴费端建立规范公平、负担合理、征缴便利的社保缴费机制； 二、在待遇端建立规范公平、待遇合理及“多缴多得”和“长缴多得”的激励机制； 三、提高制度的财务可持续性，建立制度运行的长效机制； 四、实现代内和代际之间正向的收入再分配，缩小国民收入差距； 五、实现全国统筹，解决杂乱的地方制度； 六、建立起牢固的多支柱养老金体系，满足不同群体的养老需求； 七、建立起信息交换和沟通机制，提高参保人对制度的信任。

社保的制度结构 social proction structures of states 社保养老金 对贫困老人的社会救助 其他帮助 社保养老金ss pension 对贫困老人的社会救助old/poor relieve 其他帮助others 社保养老金 对贫困老人的社会救助 其他帮助 社保养老金 对贫困老人的社会救助 其他帮助 2019/12/6

全球化与国家行使社保权力的边界 globalization and pressure on states 社保养老金 Public pension 对贫困老人的社会救助 Old/poor relieve 其他帮助 Others 2019/12/6

探索机制的变革 in search of structural and institutional reform 各种社区及宗教组织 Community 职业年金 其他 Vocational pension 政府就业培训…training etc Basic system 社保养老金 对贫困老人的社会救助 其他帮助 个人账户， 家庭内转移， 慈善 Individual accounts and philanthroupy 2019/12/6

Thank You For Listening ! 谢谢大家，请批评指正！ Thank You For Listening !