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Lorentzen & Stemoco 大数据看买卖船市场 2016 年 6 月 2 日 1
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Lorentzen & Stemoco 成立于 1919 年，经过近百年的发展壮大， L&S 不仅成为 航运咨询行业里的领跑者，同时也成为船舶融资和海工业的先行者。通过 分布在奥斯陆，纽约，伦敦，雅典，新加坡，香港和上海的分支机构， L&S 集结的近 100 位航运精英人才为全球客户提供 24 小时的不间断服务。 L&S 简介
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3 Lorentzen & Stemoco 3 二手散货船交易渐活跃 2015 年散货船的未交付率在 40% 以上，而 2016 年至今接近 60% 。 L&S Research 近期散货船船东相继进入二手船市场收购 10yrs-15yrs 散货船。 尽管干散货海运市场前景难料，但相对低 廉的市场价格，对于手握租约或者拥有充 足现金流的买家而言，投资回报率显然较 高。 右图中，可以清楚地看到，今年前五个月 的二手散货船成交数量较前两年同期要 多，但资产总价值同比下降明显。 今年前五月有近 30 艘散货船被中国买家 购得，涉及总金额 1.3 亿美元。 考虑到拆船量大幅增长，新增订单急剧下 降及交付延缓，导致市场供给侧增量大幅 萎缩。 二手散货船成交统计
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Lorentzen & Stemoco 统计显示：当资产价格下降时， 4-6.5 万 DWT 散货船更受青睐 4 船舶投资人都买了什么？ L&S Research 交易数量对比
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5 Lorentzen & Stemoco 5 什么船型最受青睐？ CNPI 指数显示： 5 月中国新造船指数为 810 点，继续环比下降 从投资金额上看，在 2016 年所有被交易的 散货船中，船东花在 4-6.5 万载重吨上的钱 最多，达到近 3.8 亿美元；其次是花在 12 万 载重吨以上散货船的 3.16 亿美元；而投资者 们对 8.5-12 万载重吨散货船显然不看好，仅 花费 4135 万美元投资于该船型。虽然大型 船舶单体船价高，纯粹以投资金额来论投 资热度可能有失偏颇，但从数据分析及实 际情况来看，对于持币待购的买家，他们 更愿意购买适货性更强的 4-6.5 万载重吨， 同时也是受制于现金压力。 L&S Research 金额分布（ $m ）
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6 Lorentzen & Stemoco 6 “ 小鲜肉 ” 也许更受偏爱 10 岁以下船龄占比 53% L&S Research 自 2016 年以来，所有被交易的散 货船中， 5 年以下船龄合计 52 艘， 5 至 10 年船龄合计 48 艘， 43 艘交 易船舶船龄在 10-15 年之间， 15- 20 年船龄的船舶有 40 艘， 20 年以 上船龄船舶仅有 6 艘。相比较来 看， 10 年以下船龄的船舶资产更 受船东青睐。 船龄占比
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7 Lorentzen & Stemoco 7 如何投资呢？ 即使船价接近底部，我们可以 “ 任性 ” 吗？ 可以 laid up 吗？ 接船之后... 复苏 之前，现金流如 何维持？
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8 Lorentzen & Stemoco 8 航交所 + 数据平台 + 经纪人模式 经纪人 数据平台 航交所 船东 经纪人 提供寻找交易对手方、买 卖、拍卖等前中后端服务 参与交易的各方形成了 一个交易闭环，各自发 挥自身优势，为船东或 船舶投资人提供高效率 的专业化一站式服务。
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9 Lorentzen & Stemoco 9 交易所交易型衍生品介绍 -FFA
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10 Lorentzen & Stemoco 10 交易所交易型衍生品介绍 - 人民币铁矿石掉期
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Lorentzen & Stemoco 11 航交所船舶挂牌交易 船舶求购 船舶出售
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Your Vision, Our Opportunity
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Oslo (Head office) Lorentzen & Stemoco AS Munkedamsveien 45, 0250 Oslo Norway Tel +47 2252 7700 Athens Lorentzen & Stemoco (Athens) Ltd Leof Karamanli 25 166 73 Voula Greece Tel +30 210 89 000 59 Singapore Lorentzen & Stemoco Singapore 8 Eu Tong Sen street, #21-98 Office 1 The Central 059818 Singapore Singapore Tel +65 6349 8400 Shanghai Lorentzen & Stemoco Shanghai Representative Office Room 2701, Shanghai Central Plaza 381 Huai Hai Zhong Road 200020 Shanghai China Tel +86 21 6391 5880 London Lorentzen & Stemoco UK Ltd 5th Floor, Dacre House 19 Dacre Street London SW1H ODJ England Tel +44 20 7799 4444 Hong Kong Lorentzen & Stemoco (Greater China) Hong Kong Ltd Flat A, 22F Sing Ho Finance Building 166-168 Gloucester Road Wan Hai Hong Kong Tel +852 2530 2164 For more information on Lorentzen & Stemoco and our global representation visit us at Lorstem.com New York City Lorentzen & Stemoco AS (USA) 8 East 41 st ST, 8th Floor New York, NY 10017 Tel +1 212 684 2503 Lorentzen & Stemoco 13 Lorentzen & Stemoco 13
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This presentation is provided by Lorentzen & Stemoco AS or an affiliated company and has been prepared for information purposes only. This presentation is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security, commodity or instrument or related derivative or to participate in any trading strategy. Any such offer would be made only after a prospective participant has completed its own independent investigation of the instrument or trading strategy and received all information it required to make its own investment decision, including, where applicable, a review of any prospectus, prospectus supplement, offering circular or memorandum describing such instrument or trading strategy (where such information would supersede this presentation, and to which prospective participants are referred). This presentation is confidential, and may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Lorentzen & Stemoco AS. This presentation is based on information obtained from sources which Lorentzen & Stemoco AS believes to be reliable but Lorentzen & Stemoco AS does not represent or warrant its accuracy or completeness and disclaims any and all liability related thereto. Please note that all prices and special levels are indicative, and may not be up to the date specified in this presentation, while the opinions and estimates contained herein represent the view as of the date of the presentation and may be subject to change without any prior notice. Please note that past performance of a market, company or financial instrument is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Estimates provided in this presentation are prepared by Lorentzen & Stemoco AS. Lorentzen & Stemoco AS expressively disclaim any and all liabilities for any and all losses related to investments caused by or motivated by this presentation. Any person receiving this presentation is deemed to have accepted this disclaimer that shall apply even if the estimates or opinions shown turn out to be to erroneous or incomplete or is based upon incorrect or incomplete facts, interpretations or assessments or assumptions by Lorentzen & Stemoco AS, and irrespective of whether Lorentzen & Stemoco AS or any person related to Lorentzen & Stemoco AS can be blamed for the incident. Lorentzen & Stemoco AS and/or its employees may have investments in companies/financial instruments featured in this presentation, and may elect to sell or buy additional financial instruments at any time. Lorentzen & Stemoco AS may also have other financial interests in transactions involving these companies/financial instruments. Lorentzen & Stemoco AS may have or has acted as advisor to, broker or manager for a number companies mentioned in this presentation. For an overview of the companies to whom Lorentzen & Stemoco AS has provided advisory, brokering, consultancy or other services to over the latest 12 months, please see contact Lorentzen & Stemoco AS and find the relevant department on www.lorstem.comwww.lorstem.com This presentation does not provide individually tailored investment advice or offer tax, regulatory, accounting or legal advice. The assets, securities, commodities or other instruments (or related derivatives) discussed in this presentation may not be suitable for all investors. This presentation has been prepared and issued for distribution to professional investors only and all recipients should seek independent investment advice prior to making any investment decision based on any information contained in this presentation. Prior to entering into any proposed transaction, recipients should determine, in consultation with their own investment, legal, tax, regulatory and accounting advisors, the economic risks and merits, as well as the legal, tax, regulatory and accounting characteristics and consequences, of the transaction. Distribution in the United States This presentation was prepared for information purposes only by Lorentzen & Stemoco AS, a foreign broker-dealer that is not registered in the United States. Lorentzen & Stemoco AS’ presentations are intended for distribution in the United States solely to "major U.S. institutional investors" in reliance on the exemption from broker-dealer registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the United States Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended and may not be furnished to any other person in the United States. Each major U.S. institutional investor that receives a copy of a Lorentzen & Stemoco AS presentation by its acceptance thereof represents and agrees that it shall not distribute or provide copies to any other person. Any U.S. recipient of presentation that desires to effect transactions in any securities discussed within this presentation should do so through Lorentzen & Stemoco AS and shall be advised on how to proceed through a U.S. registered broker-dealer. Financial statements included in the presentation, if any, may have been prepared in accordance with non-U.S. accounting standards that may not be comparable to the financial statements of United States companies. It may be difficult to compel a non-U.S. company and its affiliates to subject themselves to U.S. laws or the jurisdiction of U.S. courts. This presentation is issued by Lorentzen & Stemoco AS. Lorentzen & Stemoco AS is a company established under the laws of Norway being licensed and supervised by Norwegian regulators, and all matters relating to this presentation shall be governed by the laws of Norway. Lorentzen & Stemoco Disclaimer 14
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