当前宏观经济金融形势及展望 Recent Economic Development in China

Presentation on theme: "当前宏观经济金融形势及展望 Recent Economic Development in China"— Presentation transcript:

1 当前宏观经济金融形势及展望 Recent Economic Development in China
中国人民银行研究局 People’s Bank of China Research Department 张 涛 Zhang Tao

2 增长的基本特征 Growth dynamics
Source: PBOC; NBS

3 投资驱动 Reliance of GDP on Investment

4 出口带动 Exports: A Key Driving Force of GDP Growth

5 价格涨幅走低 Inflation Moderated (YOY)
Source: NBS

6 Production Material Prices
生产资料价格 Production Material Prices Source: NBS

7 Prices of Key Cement and Steel Products
Source: NBS

8 资产价格 Asset Prices Source: Shanghai Stock Exchange, CEIC
Treasury Bonds Index Stock Exchange Composite Index Source: Shanghai Stock Exchange, CEIC

9 房地产价格上涨幅度趋缓 Real Estate Prices Source: CEIC

10 利率持续走低 Inter-bank rates stay low
Source: CEIC

11 金融流动性增加 Rising liquidity in the financial system
Source: PBOC

12 Greater Flexibility of RMB Rates
人民币汇率弹性增加 Greater Flexibility of RMB Rates 8.12 -500 8.1 -1000 人民币对美元即期汇率 -1500 RMB/USD SPOT RATE 8.08 -2000 一年期人民币NDF -2500 8.06 -3000 1yr RMB NDF 8.04 -3500 -4000 8.02 -4500 Source: PBOC, Reuters -5000 8

13 不再紧盯美元 Stop of a de facto US $ peg
制度变革更重要 A Change of More Regime than Level 不再紧盯美元 Stop of a de facto US $ peg 参考一篮子货币 A basket-currency-based, but not pegged 市场供求为基础和管理浮动 More market-based, managed floating 外汇市场更具弹性 Supported by FX market with greater flexibility

14 国内生产总值增长9+% GDP growth 9+ % 居民消费价格指数总水平上涨2%, CPI 2%
2006 Outlook 国内生产总值增长9+% GDP growth 9+ % 居民消费价格指数总水平上涨2%, CPI 2% 货币政策目标Monetary target: M2, 16%; M1,14%;人民币信贷2.5万亿元RMB lending 2.5 trillion Yuan 宏观调控面临挑战Macroeconomic challenges

15 “走出去”战略是对外开放的重要内容 “Open-door” and “Go-overseas”
支持企业“走出去” resource mobilization in two markets (domestic and overseas) 支持参与国际竞争Enhancement of international competition 积极参国际合作（ABF2）Strengthening international cooperation 批准泛亚基金作为第一个境外投资机构进入中国银行间债市科Pan-Asia Fund became the first QFII acquired market entry in the inter-bank market