全球化導論結論 James Hou 2007.

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1 全球化導論結論 James Hou 2007

2 Giddens的概念圖

3 全球發展上的進步 食物生產與人口增加 科學與技術不斷進步 降低貧窮 減少疾病殺傷力 平均餘命增加 更多兒童能上學 成人識字率增加 收入增加
經濟與政治自由增加

4 全球的不永續發展趨勢 收入不平等 人口變遷 環境問題的去領土化與全球化 氣候變遷 國際與國內衝突增加 金融危機
Income inequalities: Average income in the richest 20 countries is 37 times more than that in the poorest 20- a ratio that has doubled in the past 40 years mainly because of lack of growth in the developing countries. 20% of the people own 80% of the GDP in the world. More than 1 billion people live on less than $1 a day. World population increased from 3 billion in 1960 to 6 billion in The environmental and social stresses that come with the combination of this demographic change and the current income and consumption patterns are not unsustainable. The environmental stresses include: loss of tropical forests, fisheries depletion, biodiversity losses, pollution of seas, increasing water scarcity. The global average surface temperatures have already increased over the last 100 years due to the increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The impacts of this climate change are already being felt in the form of increased droughts, increase in tropical cyclone rain and winds causing havoc in low lying islands and coastal areas. These impacts , if unchecked, are predicted to intensify. In 1990s, 46 countries were involved in conflict, primarily civil. They included more than half of the poorest countries. Some conflicts spill across borders and have global effects. These conflicts have very high costs for the global society destroying past development gains and leaving a legacy of damaged assets and corrosive mistrust that impedes future progress. In 1990s Asia lost about 1.4 % of growth per year from due to currency and banking crisis. The financial instability in Latin America in 1980s resulted in loss of about 2.2.% growth per year. The financial crises have global and regional effects as we saw during the Asia financial crisis and more recently the Argentina crisis. Sources: Overview of WDR 2003; Chapter 2 of High Noon, Chapter 1 and 5 of Lomborg book

5 未來50年影響全球發展主要趨勢 人口轉型 都市轉型 收入成長 科學與技術創新
It is likely that global population will increase from 6 B now to 9 B people by All of this increase will developing countries and almost entirely in urban areas. This is both an opportunity and a problem. The slowing of population growth and the growth in the proportion of the working age population mean that governments can move from keeping up with the increasing population to enhancing the quality of life for all their citizens. But this will happen only if people are well educated and have employment and investment opportunities. Urban transition: By 2050, for the first time in history , the majority of people in developing countries will be living in urban areas. The projected doubling of urban populations will make it necessary to invest in infrastructure and other capital which will affect land use, public space and energy use, and the quality of life everywhere. The demographic and urban transitions will also provide an opportunity to reverse the expansion of agriculture into terrestrial ecosystems- but they will create stresses on freshwater and coastal ecosystems. Taking action can avoid future regrets. The four fold increase in world gross domestic product will require major investments in health, education, and other infrastructure to expand capacity. It will also provide opportunities for income growth and employment creation. However, it also could potentially increase income equalities and create further social tensions. Science and technology breakthroughs will have an important role to play to improve the health and productivity of poor people and to mitigate climate change and environmental degradation and feed the increased population in a sustainable manner.

6 未來50年全球發展的重大挑戰 執行全球性協議 打擊貪腐- 全球發展之癌 降低貧窮、不平等並促進人類安全 提供全球性的公共財
有效管理全球氣候變遷 提供全球所有人公共醫療與教育 衝突預防與衝突後的重建 維持全球金融的穩定性 解決貧窮國家國際借貸與外債問題 公平的國際貿易

7 人類面臨的難題 James Hou / 2007

8 生態與環境危機 溫室效應與地球暖化 乾淨的飲水荒 酸雨與空氣汙染 自然災變(地震、海嘯、龍捲風、冰山溶解…)

9 人口與家庭問題 人類起源爭議 人口爆炸 糧荒 國際移民(移工) 人口老化(與少子化) 家庭結構變遷與家庭解組 婦女地位變遷

10 健康問題 安樂死 生命複製與道德倫理 生物科技與基因改造 愛滋病與病毒傳染 SARS、禽流感 精神疾病與心理健康

11 政治問題 民主化與解放極權體制 國家利益與目標 外交與權力均衡 國際秩序與大國意志 聯合國與國家主權爭議

12 戰爭與和平問題 戰爭根源與和平本質 國際維和部隊的角色 核戰威脅 民族與種族衝突

13 文明衝突 恐怖主義與反恐 宗教與信仰危機 文化融合可能嗎？

14 新經濟？ 富國症候群 全球經濟或資本主義 經濟依賴與南北差距 外債 週期性經濟危機

15 市場或計畫 市場的限度 發展的極限 貿易保護主義vs.擴大海外市場 凱因斯主義vs.貨幣供應學派

16 其他議題 城市問題 文化保存問題 貪污與腐敗問題 毒品與跨國犯罪 IT與機器人的未來衝擊 海洋是未來希望所在嗎？

17 全球化爭議點 全球化的好處並未能公平地分配到各地 國家主權的喪失 文化認同的喪失
從屬於世界性組織（諸如WTO）的各種規則、協議、約定、標準之下 文化認同的喪失 麥當勞、可口可樂、好萊塢式的均質世界觀 企業課責(Corporate Accountability) 人權、勞動權、環境責任是普世價值且為全球企業所應遵守的職責

18 全球化的好處 帶給人們更多選擇機會，和更多可使用的低價格貨品和服務 經濟成長 開發中國家比較會加強對基礎建設的投資
帶來更高規格、更好的生活水準 根據比較利益理論，肯定自由貿易和全球化必然增進人類福祉

19 全球化的壞處 貧富差距加劇、數位落差問題 MNCs（多國企業）無法約制 政府貪腐及無效能 恐怖主義與毒品交易全球蔓延
戰爭與大規模殺傷武器問題 移民與難民問題 新疾病與傳染病全球蔓延 生態問題與環境污染加劇

20 ANTI-GLOBALIZATION 反全球化 Inequality Women’s Rights Emigration 反資本主義
Child labor Poverty Exploitation Democracy Culture Environment 反全球化 反資本主義 反大型財團企業

21 THE ISSUES 1 貧窮 收入的分配能否跨國界進行，通常貧窮的減少是隨著財富大餅增加而來 成長是促進貧窮或減少貧窮？ 自由貿易與成長
原物料出口 勞力密集出口導向生產或資本密集生產 政府計畫有助於窮人翻身嗎？ 自由貿易與成長 規模經濟與效率 是否要保障地區性壟斷產業

22 THE ISSUES 2 童工 教育是最優的解決方案 婦女 同工不同酬、玻璃天花板 無酬家事勞動 移民 追求更好生活？

23 THE ISSUES 3 民主 文化 工資與勞動標準 全球化使市場更開放及更加獨立自主 資本會逃離民粹式民主的地區嗎 英語獨霸？
本土文化還能存續嗎？ WTO對文化產業的期待（如電影…） 工資與勞動標準 工會還有角色嗎 美國成為移民最大黑洞

24 Transnational Secular Ideologies
European modern culture is secular Socialism and Marxism Enlightenment ideologies: Modern scientific worldview liberal political discourse: civil and political rights Limited government Self-determination Capitalism Globalism?

25 國家競爭力

26 政府的角色 Emphasize competitiveness infrastructure
Enforce strict product, safety, and environmental standards Deregulate competition Adopt strong domestic antitrust policies Boost goal-setting that leads to sustained investment

27 1.經濟自由化、企業全球化、 競爭劇烈 2.創新快速化、產品短化、顧客國王化 3.科技高級化、應用廣泛化、高品低價化 4.工人知識化、上司同伴化、辦公家庭化 5.知識電腦化、買賣網路化、通訊對面化 6.壽命延長化、人口高齡化、退休就業化 7.食品健康化、醫療家庭化、運動休閒化 8.環境保護化、社區鄉村化、鄉村都市化 9.社會責任化、義工慈善化、福利政治化 10.財富平民化、理財股票化、金融虛擬化 11.婚姻淡薄化、兒孫平等化、養老自助化 12.民權高漲化、神權淡忘化、政權變動化

28 謝謝本學期合作，珍重再見！