數位通訊科技發展趨勢與產業展望 元智大學通訊中心 鄭伯順教授 中華民國九十七年五月二十九日.

Presentation on theme: "數位通訊科技發展趨勢與產業展望 元智大學通訊中心 鄭伯順教授 中華民國九十七年五月二十九日."— Presentation transcript:

1 數位通訊科技發展趨勢與產業展望 元智大學通訊中心 鄭伯順教授 中華民國九十七年五月二十九日

2 簡報內容 通訊科技發展之演進歷程 數位通訊科技發展趨勢(Gartner Group 觀點 AT&T Value Chain觀點, Hype Cycle) 日本 NTT VI&P 數位通訊科技十大策略技術 數位通訊產業展望 Conclusions

3 通訊科技發展之演進歷程 1840 Telegraph 1870 telephone 1890 radio telegraph
radio broadcasting TV broadcasting Geo-stationary satellite computer communications optical communications Internet & mobile Broadband 2007 數位匯流下之「資訊網路電信化」服務 網路電話（Skype、Google Talk、MSN Messenger、Yahoo 奇摩即時通訊） 資料來源: 國際電信聯合會(ITU)

4 數位通訊科技發展趨勢(Gartner Group觀點)
Benefit Totally new processes across industries-> dramatic ROI New processes for horizontal or vertical apps ->significant ROI Significant improvement to existing ->ROI Incremental improvements Intelligent Electronic Marketplace Machine Learning Genetic Algorithms Interactive Data Television Mining 無線通訊 Intelligent OOP Messaging ATM Computer Telephony MPP Emergent Computation Chaos/ Machine Complexity Vision Neural Intelligent Networks Agents Virtual Mobil Rule-based Reality 行動計算 Systems Smart Cards Speech 辨認 Visual Prog NLU Handwriting 辨認 Data Conferencing Logic Case-based Prog Reasoning Functional Prog. Constraint Fuzzy Based Prog Logic Speech Visualization Synthesis OO O/S Desktop Biometrics Videoconf Image 瞭解 PDAs Electronic Meeting Systems Niche Ubiquitous Potential Penetration

5 數位通訊科技發展趨勢(AT&T Value Chain觀點)
Hosting Applications (Content),Services And Platforms Emerging Telephony Local Service/ Transport Long Distance Global Telephony End-User Software/ Devices System Operations/ Fulfillment Opportunities Content Primary User Generated Usage Derived Applications Transactions Platforms Electronic On-Line Services Consumer LD/ILD Voice Data Business LD/ILD Local Telephony Local Service IntraLATA Toll Access Revenue Broadcast Distribution Cable Distribution Wireless Paging Messaging Video Telephony Software Browsers/Gateways Vertical Applications (e.g..Personal Financial Planning) Devices Phone SCREEN PHONE PC Adjuncts(e.g..Card Reader) System Integration Payment Services Global Communications

6 Hype Cycle(Turning points, Strategy, Entry points), 2005
Gartner Group 網通技術 Hyper Cycle N Curve:熱潮, 降溫, 重新建構business model, 高原緩步成長期 Hype Cycle(Turning points, Strategy, Entry points) 技術發軔期 逐漸熱門 沉潛期 成長平穩期 技術成熟期

7 Hype Cycle Key: Time to “Plateau” Less than two years
Visibility Key: Time to “Plateau” Less than two years Two to five years Five to 10 years Beyond 10 years Grid Computing Biometrics Natural Language Search Web Services Identity Services PDA Phones Wireless LANs/802.11 VPN Nanocomputing Text-to-Speech E-Tags P2P Speech Recognition in Call Center Personal Fuel Cells VoIP WAP/ Wireless Web Bluetooth PKI LBS E-Payments Speech Recognition on Desktop Maturity Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity Trigger

8 數位通訊科技發展趨勢(日本 NTT VI&P 觀點)
4W1H 效 果 特 性 Who What When Where How 自由化、 選擇性 選擇性、豐富性、多樣性 時間 之克服 距離 場所 容易化 簡便化 真實性 自然性 高信賴性 安全性 高速化 大容量化 影像揭 示板 多媒體傳送 On Demand影像 影像傳信板 影像傳送 Visual Telephone 遠端檢診 高精細移動體FAX 動畫 Database 影像 Database 立體影像傳送 即時立體畫像 無擁塞之通信 知能化 文件翻譯通信 發信者確認 傳言板 個人號碼 用戶化的服務 時間指定通信 文件傳言板 文件信箱 分散式知識處理 自動指名通信 電子投票 電子祕書 高度FAX傳送 模擬高臨場感 無事故之城市 人性化 智障礙者之通信 桌上型多媒體 代行檢索 語音輸入 語音自動編輯 立體影像通信 語音合成 身份認證 高密度化 小型化 遠隔監視 計測 極小型呼叫器 攜帶型畫像機 以IC Card進行電子發票及裁決 攜帶型緊急發信 居場所檢出 主要範圍 影像通信 知能通信 行動通信 21世紀初之服務(由技術特性與效果觀點看)

9 日本 NTT VI&P NTT 二十一世紀新服務的目標 Visual Intelligent Personal

10 社會經濟之動向與要求 個性化的進展 個性化的對應 高齡化的進展 安全性與信賴性之確保 資訊化的進展 產業之高附加價值化 全球化的進展
創造新的通信環境 社會與環境問題日益顯著 協助解決社會與環境之問題

11 資訊化通信技術之動向 光化與超化的進展 半導體技術之超密度化與高速化 光纖化之進展 知能化與人性化的進展 認識的技術（語音、文字與圖形辨識）
知識處理技術（自然語言之理解） 網路技術之高速化、大容量化與移動性容易化之進展

12 資訊化通信技術之發展方向 大容量 小型化 高密度化 高速化 知能化 人性化 達到「4W1H」的目的

13 Visual服務內容 Visual 視覺電話 高畫質 大畫面 3D立體影像

14 Intelligent服務內容 Intelligent 翻譯通信、語音辨識 知的支援：親和力人機介面 融通性網路服務：服務內容由用戶指定

15 Personal服務內容 Personal 個人號碼 袖珍型電話

16 Nokia Open

17 VI&P 試驗 日本NTT計畫於武藏野與橫須賀的兩個R&D中心間試用。
第一階段從1991到1992，主要是在證實ATM網路系統、光纖用戶系統與窄頻網路(64K)之各種服務。 第二階段從1993到1994，主要在評估寬頻(156Mbps)ISDN之各種功能。

18 數位通訊科技十大策略技術 即時傳訊（Instant messaging) 無線區域網路（WLAN） 網路電話（IP Telephony）
網路安全功能整合(Network Security) 即時企業基礎建設（RTE infrastructure） 公用運算（Utility computing） 軟體作為服務（Software treated as services） 網格運算（Grid computing) 射頻識別標籤（RFID tags） 分類（Taxonomies）

19 韓國資通產業2010年策略 IT- 839 Strategy
8-new services, 3-advanced infrastructures, 9-new growth engines 將國民所得提高至2萬美元 8-new services 八項新服務 Wireless Broadband, Digital Multimedia Broadcasting, Home-network, Telematics, RFID, W-CDMA, Digital TV, IP Telephony 3-advanced infrastructures 三項基礎建設 Broadband Convergence Network, Ubiquitous Sensor Network, IPv6 9-new growth engines 九大產業 NG Mobile Communication Device, Digital TV, Home-network Device, IT SoC(Mobile Handset), NG PC( Wearable PC, Sensors and Human Interface), Embedded Software, Digital Content & Games, Telematics, Intelligent Robot Four Color Services Happy Home(Red)娛樂生活, Hopeful Home(Blue)終生學習, Intimate Home(Red)有效溝通, Secure Home(Yellow)健康安全

20 Moore’s Law 2X every 18(12) months PC in 2010 100X in 10 years
Faster for disk/memory PC in 2010 15GHz microprocessor 20 GByte memory 500 GByte hard disk

21 Metcalfe’s Law N cost, N2 value Future network Positive cycle
Users/content/bandwidth/appliances Future network Everything is online Everyone is online Online anytime Everything is to be connected ! Ubiquitous

22 何謂Ubiquitous Computing
1991年9月，全錄公司帕克實驗室的科學家Mark Weiser在《科學美國人》雜誌上提出一篇重要的文章「二十一世紀的電腦」(The Computer for 21th Century)。 在這篇文章中， Weiser直接了當地說明：持續三十多年的個人電腦的互動模式將會成為過去，而他所提倡的「遍及式運算」會將之取代。 整篇文章最重要的觀念，就是開頭的那兩句話： 影響最深刻的科技，是那些最終以『消失』的型態存在的科技。這些科技慢慢的深化在我們的生活中，一直到變成生活的一部份，進而消失。

23 電腦消失？ Weiser的願景，基本上是認為將來所謂的「電腦」，會出現在各式各樣的實體物件當中，以一種「消失」的存在方式，與人類的生活緊密結合在一起。 電腦嵌入在實體物件中，而且全部透過無線網路串連在一起，但這並不是他所想要強調的重點。 Weiser 的「遍及式運算」內涵的真正精神，是他揭示了一個全新的科技互動設計上的觀念。 他認為資訊科技以及電腦的存在，應該以使用者角度來出發，深入分析每一項 使用者進行的活動（諸如插花，畫畫，查字典，打電話，掃地等等），並且研究、設計相對應的「特製化」的實體工具（physical tools），來幫助使用者達成他的任務。

24 Bill Gates’ vision PC on everyone’s desktop (’75)
Information at your finger tips (’90) Seamless Computing (’03) Information Agent “Do what I mean” “Find what I want” Smart Home STB XBOX SPOT ( Smart Personal Objects Technology) a vision of everyday objects that work seamlessly to improve peoples' daily lives Microsoft SPOT Wrist Watch Java Ring

25 數位通訊產業展望

26 三大電信基本服務：固網、行動及數據營收消長
電信市場版塊消長現象分析 三大電信基本服務：固網、行動及數據營收消長 三大版塊消長逐漸明顯 頻寬雖成長迅速，但單位頻寬價值卻逐步下降

27 新興電信服務  把餅做大之動力 Content Applications Connectivity Enhancing Services
Multimedia Content Video Streaming Specialized Information Directory based services Service Portals Web-based Provisioning VoIP Unified Messaging Multimedia bridging VPN Broadband Internet Authorization Services Fat, Flexible Pipes Integrated Access Bandwidth on Demand, QoS Content Applications Connectivity Enhancing Services Basic Connectivity Services Access Services Value to the Customer Can Be Delivered at Many Levels

28 From 5C to Digital Convergence
Types of convergence Computer Communication Consumer electronics Cable /media Content Digital Convergence Integrated Fixed-Mobile communication & VASs PSTN-IP interoperability (voice-data convergence) Telecom, Broadcasting cross boundary (Triple play) Multi-mode, multi-function terminals New InfoComms industry Value Chain shape Content/ Application (Creation) Application platform Service platform Network platform Consumer device imply Music News Sports Learning Game … Messaging Location Mgmt Streaming Portals … Network mgmt Provisioning Billing Security Payment … Mobile PWLAN xDSL FTTH Cable Satellite … TV PC PDA STB Game console Mobile phone … New Competition ! New Services ! New Possibilities !

29 Digital Life 當資通訊進入移動空間-滿足Cyberspace 空間需求
資通訊整體需求與供給 Cyberspace 資通訊服務 下一個標的市場 Entertainment Space Moving Space Home Space Office Space

30 過去的移動空間:物力為空間活動主角 現在的移動空間:交通工具為空間活動主角
移動空間的過去、現在 、未來 過去的移動空間:物力為空間活動主角 現在的移動空間:交通工具為空間活動主角 未來的移動空間:資通訊為空間活動主角LBS, Multimedia communications, Telematics, 居家上班, 居家照顧, 資訊家電 「汽車」開入無線網路

31

32 Critical factors influencing industry development
Competitive context Customer context Regulatory/Economic / Political Technology context company Industry Domestic Global

33 What is Context? The “five W’s” of context are a good minimal set of necessary context: Who: User and other people in the environment. What: Interpretations of user activity Where: The physical location of the user When: User activity relative changes in time. Why: Understanding the activity of the user.

34 (1)Customer Context- Customer Need User behavior & Usage Trends (1/2)
Broadband (higher bandwidth) Increasing use of Internet-based services, demanding more than just Internet access(Applications, Content delivery) Mobility & roaming 2.5G/3G/B3G, WLAN, Ultra Wideband (155Mbps) Cellular-WLAN integration Quality of Service Availability, reliability, scalability, security… Flexibility & total solutions Terminals and services to be transportable between different networks “One-stop shop” for billing

35 (1) Customer Context- User behavior & Usage Trends (2/2)
Service Intelligence & convergence Convergence between telecom & broadcasting Inter-communication between sophisticated devices Intelligent service location and configuration mechanisms Overall Customer Need Broadband Mobility Home networking QoS /Security Open APIs IPv6 Voice/Data Integration Fixed-Mobile Convergence Telecom/Broadcasting Convergence Converged terminal/appliances

36 (2) Technology context-evolve toward future network (NGN, Next Generation Network)
An unified network--different type of network infrastructure are linked through common protocol. There will be convergence at service level to reach ubiquitous service. Other features include Optical based, IP based, QoS, Bandwidth flexibility, Open application program interface (APIs) IPV6 電信網路將是從高成本且複雜的多重網路架構，轉型為全球化、高智慧的單一化網路。 可以有效降低相關業者網路建置、維運及人員成本 電信業者營運重點可由傳統的電路接取服務，移轉為內容服務業務的行銷推廣，可開創新營收的來源，並滿足用戶多媒體、行動性、個人化、和私有網路服務的需求。 為了提供更多元豐富的內容服務，電信業者勢必將和各個不同的內容服務商合作，新的合作夥伴關係意味著創新營運模式的出現。 Source: ITU, July, 2003

37 NGN - a Layered & Integrated architecture
Information Applications & Content Movie/Music Streaming EC LBS Learning E-MAP Portal Security Game … Financial Culture Publishing Monitoring Health-care Community Servers Communication applications & control Mobile Data IP Telephony Mobile Telephony Fixed Real Time Multimedia IP-VPN Management Connectivity Backbone Network Other IP/Multi-Service Networks Media Gateway Other Telephony Networks Media Gateway Mobile/Wireless Access Network Fixed Access Network Enterprise Networks Anytime, anywhere, anydevice

38 (3) Regulatory/Political/Economic Context
Continual deregulation to encourage a service-based competitive environment Establishing NCC to administrate the emergent digital convergence (Telecom, broadcasting, Internet business) Challenge 2008 Initiative ( NT$2.6 T)-- Push for a broadband communication service island Promote Digital Content Industry Digital TV Initiative … National R&D programs for telecommunication iB3G- 3G cellular & WLAN integration National Science & Technology Programs

39 (4) Competitive Context--Paradigm shift
Today’s profit is transport; tomorrow’s profit is services The value of broadband is not in transport, but in the services it enables Expand market for broadband, application services From Source: Asia Pacific Enterprise-SP connect study, Cisco

40 A Snapshot of Taiwan’s Market

41 Market Snapshot Taiwan has been one of the most advanced communication markets in the world, with the highest mobile penetration and the fastest adoption of broadband Internet technologies. Competition among communication service providers has brought down tariffs, consequently, benefited consumers and stimulated services adoption and usage dramatically. Source：Pyramid, Oct, 2002

42 Growth of Internet & Broadband Market in Taiwan
Unit: 10 thousand persons 96/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / /6 Source: FIND, ECRC, III sponsored by DOIT, MOEA DGT

43 Expand business to meet market demand for broadband
Information, Communication, Entertainment, Transaction Source: NTT DoCoMo, Oct. 2002

44 Growth of Broadband Market in Taiwan
Unit: thousand households Note: In 03/6, Taiwan DSL penetration 9.7%, ranked 2nd in the world. (Point-Topic) Taiwan’s broadband market continued to grow remarkably well during the past few years. Especially, ADSL subscription grew year on year by an impressive rate. 00/ / / / / / / / /12 In 03/8, broadband subscribers reaches 2.69M (leased line 200K, ADSL 2.248M, Cable Modem 0.422M ) Source: DGT

45 Broadband services- support a variety of wireline access technologies
2.5 Gbit/s OPTICAL ACCESS 622 Mbit/s 50 Mbit/s VDSL } 25 Mbit/s ADSL2+ ADSL2 HDSL/ADSL 8 Mbit/s 2 Mbit/s 640 kbit/s ISDN 128 kbit/s Analog modems 56 kbit/s Source: ITU, May, 2003 28.8 kbit/s

46 Broadband services- toward 3G with a variety of applications
32 64 9.6 128 144 384 2,000 Higher data rates Audio Streaming Telephone (Voice) time 1990 1G Voice Text Messaging Electronic Newspaper Mail Fax Publishing Data Weather, Traffic, News, Sports, Stock updates 1997 2G Video Streaming Still Imaging Remote Medical Service (Medical image) Video Conference (High quality) Video on Demand: Sports, News Weather Karaoke (Lower quality) JPEG Still Photos Mobile Radio Surveillance, Video Mail, Travel Image Audio Voice-driven Web Pages Streaming Audio Mobile TV E-Commerce 2004 3G Source: DGT

47 Growth of Local Telephone and Cellular Phone Subscribers in Taiwan
Unit: 1,000 persons (106.15%) (96.55%) (80.24%) (52.24%) (21.56%) New operators began entering the market in Jan. 1998 In Feb. 2000, the number of cellular subscribers surpassed local phone subscribers. At the end of April 2002, cellular phone subscribers in Taiwan totaled 22605, for a penetration rate of %, and exceeded one account per person. End of year 2003/7, local telephone subscribers: 13,255k (58.75%) 2003/7, cellular phone subscribers: 25,260k (111.96%) Source: DGT

48 “Challenge 2008 Initiative”
Development of broadband-based applications throughout Taiwanese society e ez-Life e-Business e-Government e-Transportation Broadband to the Home e-Taiwan Project 5 Flagship Plans 6 Million Broadband Subscribers Broadband Wireless Access IPv6 Deployment & Promotion Broadband to Small and Medium Enterprises Secure Info-Communication Environment

49 Challenge : Market Maturity
Both the fixed and mobile communication markets in Taiwan are close to saturation, resulting in slower revenue growth and subscriber additions. In the data communications market, broadband Internet access service has seen fast uptake in the past few years and started to take a toll on the dial-up service market. However, its growth began to slow up. Note: Size of the bubble indicates relative size of a sector or industry Source：Pyramid, Oct, 2002

50 More challenges in the environment….
Power Shift- from company oriented to customer oriented Customer Value Changes- from simple service to customized services Digital Convergence- indefinite competition without industry barriers Looking for growth engine

51 Transformation is the answer to stability
Role: From Network/Access Provider (age of connectivity)  Service Provider or content provider/Aggregator (age of services) Network: From TDM  IP Network Service: From voice  IP-based voice+mobile+data (human & machine-based) Goals : reduce operating cost & grasp revenue opportunities

52 Grasp Opportunities for broadband growth
Since Q1/03, Broadband growth slow up Growth (wireline/wireless) requires driving force Music & movie over Internet, VoD to PC or TV Storage services, video conferencing, hosted software & integrated voice & data services. 99/ / / / / / / / /6 03/12(E) 04(E) 05(E) 06(E) 07(E) Source: DGT digital home/home networking , e/m-enterprise, in-car applications are viewed as valuable drivers.

53 Conclusions Transformation is the way to stability, which can convert market changes & environmental challenges into business opportunities. Innovation, differentiation, integration & business models are the keys to success. IT helps to reduce cost & realize broadband services. Strategic alliance is important.

54 Conclusions Computing with Natural Interfaces
普及式計算強調發展應用系統讓使用者隨時隨地可以取得資訊，而不受到電腦所在位置的限制，讓使用者可以 “off the desktop”。 We need natural interfaces that facilitate a richer variety of communications capabilities between humans and computation (e.g., handwriting, speech, and gestures).

55 Conclusions 所有的科技發展趨勢告訴我們什麼
以下科技的進步意味著 computing speed communication bandwidth material sciences sensor technology computer science concepts miniaturization energy usage battery technique display technologies price ...􀃆 Pervasive普遍的 Computing Ubiquitous Computing Ambient周遭的 Intelligence Disappearing Computer Invisible Computing [Mat02a]

56 結 語 From A(1分) to Z(26分) KNOWLEDGE(96分) HARDWORK(98分) ALTITUDE(100分)
結 語 From A(1分) to Z(26分) KNOWLEDGE(96分) HARDWORK(98分) ALTITUDE(100分) Steve Jobs：Stay Hungry, Stay Foolish（求知若飢，虛心若愚） （常保飢渴求知，常存虛懷若愚）

57 簡歷 鄭伯順， 現任元智大學通訊中心教授，國立中央大學資訊工程研究所兼任教授; 中華電信研究所前副所長，國立中央大學光電科學研究所博士，曾在美國GTE Labs從事語音合成與辨認之研究。1974年進入電信研究所至2006年，歷任中華電信研究所應用科技研究室主任及擔任數位信號處理技術研究計畫、智慧型運輸系統計畫總主持人，曾負責主持安全保密與驗證技術、安全驗證中心(CA)完成國內第一次網路報稅系統，並主持國內最早ADSL商用計畫成功用於台北淡大社區，為中華電信後來成功推廣ADSL商用計畫奠定良好基礎、完成中文字型產生器透過台北市電腦公會技術推廣一百多家廠商、主持智慧型運輸系統計畫完成高雄港貨櫃車輛自動通關系統提昇通關速度七倍以上、完成計程車衛星自動派遣系統等。主要學術專長為多媒體通訊，智慧型運輸系統，通訊技術及應用，通訊與資訊安全技術， 影像及視訊處理，專利及智慧財產權。共發表二百餘篇論文，分別刊載於國內外知名之學術性雜誌及會議論文集；並獲得一百多項專利(其中十 項美國專利)，及八項著作權；其中多項技術已移轉給國內工業界廣泛用於中文電腦、視障專用電腦、桌上型電子排版系統、語音合成與辨認、安全保密與驗證技術等產品之上。曾獲全國傑出資訊人才獎、1988年行政院傑出科技榮譽獎(為當年全國科技最高榮譽獎)、2005年台北國際發明暨技術交易展-發明競賽金牌獎、交通部公務人員楷模及行政院全國公務人員楷模。