有限資源的非道德性 限制條件 第13單元：第十三講：有限資源的非道德限制

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1 有限資源的非道德性 限制條件 第13單元：第十三講：有限資源的非道德限制
【本著作除另有註明外，採取創用CC「姓名標示－非商業性－相同方式分享」台灣2.5版授權釋出】

2 誰是哈維爾(Vaclav Havel)

3 1956年10月23日 匈牙利十月事件爆发 David Burgess (contribs)

4 莫洛托夫雞尾酒

5 Alexander Dubcek and the 'Prague Spring‘
杜布契克與布拉格之春 Alexander Dubcek

6 Prague Spring 1968: Russia brings winter to 'Prague Spring'
Prague Spring

7 Prague Spring, 1968 可是整體來講，是一個溫和的，可是這一個溫和的過程當然雖然摧毀了當時的一個萌芽的一個自由化的運動，

8 Prague Spring, 1968

9 1968: Russia brings winter to 'Prague Spring'
Prague Spring

10 Milan Kundera, The Unbearable Lightness of Being, and Prague
                       Milan Kundera, The Unbearable Lightness of Being, and Prague 

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12 布拉格的春天

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14 The Motorcycle Diaries
革命前夕的-摩托車日記 The Motorcycle Diaries

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16 The last words of a revolotionist
“I know you have come to kill me. Shoot, coward, you are only going to kill a man”。 Che Guevara 1967,10,9

17 Aug. 8, 1960

18 Workers and students march in Paris, May 1968.
中國大陸文化大革命 Workers and students march in Paris, May 1968.

19 誰是哈維爾(Vaclav Havel) Ben Skála

20 Charter 77 was very much Havel's baby, although he did not write it alone. It was an appeal to the government to respect the basic human rights and freedoms to which Czechoslovakia had committed itself with the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights signed in Helsinki in 1975. By 5th January 1977 when Charter 77 was published, it had 242 signatories.

21 Davos World Economic Forum 1992 Meeting
Copyright World Economic Forum

22 Davos World Economic Forum Annual Meeting
Andy Mettler World Economic Forum from Cologny, Switzerland

23 Summer Dvos Forum in China

24 哈維爾的”近代紀元的終結” The End of Modern Era
哈維爾(Vaclav Havel) 哈維爾的”近代紀元的終結” The End of Modern Era

25 NYT Vaclav Have

26 The New York Times, Sunday, March 1st, 1992 THE END OF THE MODERN ERA Vaclav Havel
The end of Communism is, first and foremost, a message to the human race. It is a message we have not yet fully deciphered and comprehended. In its deepest sense, the end of Communism has brought a major era in human history to an end. It has brought an end not just to the 19th and 20th centuries, but to the modern age as a whole 在最深層的意義上，共產主義的終結，是人類一個主要世紀的終結。不只是十九二十世 紀，而是整個的近代紀元。 The modern era has been dominated by the culminating belief, expressed in different forms, that the world - and Being as such - is a wholly knowable system governed by a finite number of universal laws that man can grasp and rationally direct for his own benefit. 相信世界是一完整知識體系，這體系被有限的宇宙定律所宰制，而人類可以據以掌握並且 因之獲利。 This era, beginning in the Renaissance and developing from the Enlightenment to socialism. from positivism to scientism, from the Industrial Revolution to the information revolution, was characterized by rapid advances in rational. cognitive thinking. 這個紀元，由文藝復興到啟蒙主義到社會主義，從實証主義到科學主義，從工業革命到資 訊革命，它的特性是推理認知思維的快速變革。 原文出自 Vaclav Have, “THE END OF THE MODERN ERA”

27 讓人類有一個信念，做為萬物之靈，我們有客觀的能力來描述、解釋和控制任何存在之物， 並獲取一個而且是唯一的一個宇宙的真理。
 This, in turn, gave rise to the proud belief that man, as the pinnacle of everything that exists, was capable of objectively describing, explaining and controlling everything that exists, and of possessing the one and only truth about the world. 讓人類有一個信念，做為萬物之靈，我們有客觀的能力來描述、解釋和控制任何存在之物， 並獲取一個而且是唯一的一個宇宙的真理。 It was an era in which there was a cult of depersonalized objectivity, an era in which objective knowledge was amassed and technologically exploited, an era of belief in automatic progress brokered by the scientific method. It was an era of systems. institutions, mechanisms and statistical averages. 這是一個系統體系，工具機制以及統計平均的世紀。 It was an era of ideologies, doctrines, interpretations of reality, an era in which the goal was to find a universal theory of the world, and thus a universal key to unlock its prosperity. 這一個世紀的目標，就是尋找一個世界的宇宙定律，找尋一個打開其中財富的宇宙鑰匙。 Communism was the perverse extreme of this trend. It was an attempt, on the basis of a few propositions masquerading as the only scientific truth, to organize all of life according to a single model, and to subject it to central planning and control regardless of whether or not that was what life wanted. 共產主義正是這種趨勢中的一個極端，是建基在幾個假裝為科學真理的假想之上，想要根 據單一的簡單模式來宰制人類的生活。全然根據一種集中式的計畫和控制，而不論人們是 否需要。 原文出自 Vaclav Have, “THE END OF THE MODERN ERA”

28 這訊息告訴我們，一個傲慢的絕對主義推論的世紀已經接近終點，而現在 正是由那個事實真相裏得到結論的一個關鍵時刻。
The fall of Communism can be regarded as a sign that modern thought - based on the premise that the world is objectively knowable, and that the knowledge so obtained can be absolutely generalized - has come to a final crisis. 共產主義的崩潰可以視之為一個訊息，也就是一個建基在認為這是世界是 一個客觀的知識，而且這樣的一種知識是具有絕對普適性的信念，已經遇 到了一個巨大的危機。 This era has created the first global, or planetary. technical civilization, but it has reached the limit of its potential, the point beyond which the abyss begins. The end of Communism is a serious warning to all mankind. It is a signal that the era of arrogant, absolutist reason is drawing to a close and that it is high time to draw conclusions from that fact.  這訊息告訴我們，一個傲慢的絕對主義推論的世紀已經接近終點，而現在 正是由那個事實真相裏得到結論的一個關鍵時刻。                         原文出自 Vaclav Have, “THE END OF THE MODERN ERA”

29 Communism was not defeated by military force, but by life, by the human spirit, by conscience, by the resistance of Being and man to manipulation. It was defeated by a revolt of color, authenticity, history all its variety and human individuality against imprisonment within a uniform ideology. 共產主義不是被軍事力量所擊敗，而是被真實的生活，人類的精神，良知， 以及對生命和人類操控的反抗，以及反抗將多元、真實、人類個別多變歷程 禁制在單一意識形態所擊敗。 This powerful signal is coming at the 11th hour. We all know civilization is in danger. The population explosion and the greenhouse effect, holes in the ozone and AIDS, the threat of nuclear terrorism and the dramatically widenmg gap between the rich north and the poor south, the danger of famine, the depletion of the biosphere and the mineral resources of the planet, the expansion of commercial television culture and the growing threat of regional wars -all these, combined with thousands of other factors, represent a general threat to mankind. 這強而有力的訊息來得正是時候。我們都知道人類文明處在危險之中，人口 爆炸，溫室效應，臭氧層破洞，愛滋病，核子恐怖主義的威脅，南北國家的 巨大貧富懸殊，饑荒的危機，地球生物礦物資源耗竭，商業電視文明擴張以 及區域戰爭的威脅。 原文出自 Vaclav Have, “THE END OF THE MODERN ERA”

30 最大的矛盾是，人類知道這些危險，卻完全沒有能力去處理這些危險。
The large paradox at the moment is that man - a great collector of information - is well aware of all this, yet is absolutely incapable of dealing with the danger. 最大的矛盾是，人類知道這些危險，卻完全沒有能力去處理這些危險。 Traditional science, with its usual coolness, can describe the different ways we might destroy ourselves, but it cannot offer us truly effective and practicable instructions on how to avert them. 制式的科學是冷酷的，可以描述許多種不同的可能摧毀我們自己的方式，但是對於如何去 改正，卻不能給我們提供真正有效而可行的指導。 There is too much to know; the information is muddled or poorly organized: these processes can no longer be fully grasped and understood, let alone contained or halted. 問題是知識太多，但是訊息混雜，不能帶來真正的了解，更不要說去規範和控制它們。 We are looking for new scientific recipes, new ideologies, new control systems. new institutions, new instruments to eliminate the dreadful consequences of our previous recipes, ideologies, control systems, institutions and instruments. We treat the fatal consequences of technology as though they were a technical defect that could be remedied by technology alone. 我們處理這些科技的致命後果，認為它們只不過是技術的瑕疵，光是靠技術就可以矯正。 We are looking for an objective way out of the crisis of objectivism. 我們在尋找一種脫離客觀主義危機的客觀方法。 原文出自 Vaclav Have, “THE END OF THE MODERN ERA”

31 我們現在需要的是一些不同的，一些更周全的。人類面對世界的態度必須有巨大的改變。
Everything would seem to suggest that this is not the way to go. We cannot devise, within the traditional modern attitude to reality, a system that will eliminate all the disastrous consequences of previous systems We cannot discover a law or theory whose technical application will eliminate all the disastrous consequences of the technical application of earlier laws and technologies. What is needed is something different, some-thing larger. Man's attitude to the world must be radically change. 我們現在需要的是一些不同的，一些更周全的。人類面對世界的態度必須有巨大的改變。 We have to abandon the arrogant belief that the world is merely a puzzle to be solved, a machine with instructions for use waiting to be discovered, a body of information to be fed into a computer in the hope that, sooner or later, it will spit out a universal solution. 我們必須放棄一種傲慢的信念，認定世界只是一個待解之謎，等待被發現的一具有用的特殊機器，一個可輸入電腦的訊息有機體，而盼望著遲早會得到一個普適解答。 It is my profound conviction that we have to release from the sphere of private whim such forces as a natural, unique and unrepeatable experience of the world, 這是我最深的信念，我們必須由這個自以為是，認定是自然、唯一且不可再現的世界經驗裏解放出來。 an elementary sense of justice, the ability to see things as others do, a sense of transcendental responsibility, archetypal wisdom, good taste, courage, compassion and. faith in the Importance of particular measures that do not aspire to be a universal key to salvation. Such forces must be rehabilitated. 對於正義的基本感受，能夠有將心比心的能力，超自然的責任感，不同凡屬的智慧，好的品味，勇氣，熱情，對一些不會成為宇宙救贖之特定規範的信念。這些信念都必需恢復。 原文出自 Vaclav Have, “THE END OF THE MODERN ERA”

32 We must try harder to understand than to explain. 我們必須更努力的去了解而不只是去解釋。
Things must once more be given a chance to present themselves as they are. to be perceived in their individuality. We must see the pluralism of the world, and not bind it by seeking common denominators or reducing everything to a single common equation. We must try harder to understand than to explain. 我們必須更努力的去了解而不只是去解釋。 The way forward is not in the mere construction of universal systemic solutions. to be applied to reality from the outside; it is also in seeking to get to the heart of reality through personal experience. Such an approach promotes an atmosphere of tolerant solidarity and unity in diversity based on mutual respect, genuine pluralism and parallelism. 必須有一個新思維，就是建基於相互尊重之上，一種對於分化中休戚與共和團結 的寬容，有真正的多元性和包容性。 In a word, human uniqueness, human action and the human spirit must be rehabilitated. 一言以蔽之，必須恢復人類的獨特性，人類的行為以及人類的精神。 原文出自 Vaclav Have, “THE END OF THE MODERN ERA”

33 今天的世界，對我來說，還是一個專技和功利的生命態度，也是同樣的一種政治態度。
The world today is a world in which generality, objectivity and universality are in crisis. This world presents a great challenge io the practice of politics, which, it seems to me, still has a technocratic, utilitarian approach to Being, and therefore to political power as well. 今天的世界，對我來說，還是一個專技和功利的生命態度，也是同樣的一種政治態度。 Many of the traditional mechanisms of democracy created and developed and conserved in the modern era are so linked to the cult of objectivity and statistical average that they can annul human individuality. 在近代紀元中的許多正統的民主機制，是與抹煞人類個別性的客觀以及平均統計信念深深 的聯結著。 We can see this in political language, where cliche often squeezes out a personal tone. And when a personal tone does crop up, it is usually calculated, not an outburst of personal authenticity.   Sooner or later politics will be faced with the task of finding a new, postmodern face. A politician must become a person again, someone who trusts not only a scientific representation and analysis of the world, but also the world itself. 政治家必須要重新做一個人，不是只相信科學對於世界的表徵和分析，更要相信世界本身。 He must believe not only in sociological statistics, but also in real people. 不能只相信社會統計，要相信真正的人。 原文出自 Vaclav Have, “THE END OF THE MODERN ERA”

34 靈魂，個人精神，對事的直覺，做自己及照自己良知而行的勇氣以及用人性本質面對生命 的未知。
He must trust not only an objective interpretation of reality, but also his own soul; not only an adopted ideology, but also his own thoughts; not only the summary reports he receives each morning. but also his own feeling. 他不能夠只相信真實世界的客觀解釋，還要相信他自己的靈魂，不只是採用一種意識形態， 而還要有他自己的思想，不只是他每天早上所收到的綜合報告，還有他自己的感受。 Soul, individual spirituality. first-hand personal insight into things; the courage to be himself and go the way his conscience points, humility in the face of the mysterious order of Being. confidence in its natural direction and, above all, trust in his own subjectivity as his principal link with the subjectivity of the world - these are the qualities that politicians of the future should cultivate. 靈魂，個人精神，對事的直覺，做自己及照自己良知而行的勇氣以及用人性本質面對生命 的未知。 Looking at politics "from the inside," as it were, has if anything confirmed my belief that the world of today - with the dramatic changes it is going through and in its determination not to destroy itself - presents a great challenge to politicians.  It is not that we should simply seek new and better ways of managing society, the economy and the world. The point is that we should fundamentally change how we behave And who but politicians should lead the way? Their changed attitude toward the world, themselves and their responsibility can give rise to truly effective systemic and institutional changes. 我們不只是再要追求更新更好的方法，來操控社會經濟和整個世界，重要的是我們要由根 本上改變我們的行事作為。 原文出自 Vaclav Have, “THE END OF THE MODERN ERA”

35 誰是喬治布朗 (George Brown Jr)

36

37 Late Congressman George Brown Jr.

38 Pork-Barrel Politics 分贓政治
Pork-Barrel Politics 分贓政治

39 江老師提供 THE OBJECTIVITY CRISIS: RETHINKING THE ROLE OF SCIENCE IN SOCIETY

40 在那場年會的座談會上，布朗亦批評科學、技術專家本位地饜求經費的心態，認為這是不負責任而自私自利的行為。他特別指出，
布朗議員對科技研交和發展的批評，最先是在眾議院中的一份報告，後來亦出現在洛杉磯時報。一九九三年二月十二日，他出席美國最大民間科學促進團體， 「美國科學促進會」 （ AAAS ） 的年會，以「客觀性的危機—科學在社會中角色的反省」為題的報告中，特別強調哈維爾的觀點，認為必須重建人類其他形式的經驗，使之與科學知識等量齊觀。布朗特別提出他的觀點在科學界中所遭到的強烈敵意和批評。其實布朗在演講中將科學、技術發展放在一個社會意義的思維上來看，認為科學、技術的發展並不應具有高於一切的特權，不是自行自是的「不染塵」真理，他的觀點確實是多年經驗和深刻觀察後的真知灼見。 在那場年會的座談會上，布朗亦批評科學、技術專家本位地饜求經費的心態，認為這是不負責任而自私自利的行為。他特別指出， 「在人類文化追求智慧的發展，是以真理、美和正義為最高的標的。在科學的追尋中，對於觀察世界的真理是單一的至高目標，美是追尋真理中偶發的副產品，而正義則認為是在科學考慮的範疇之外的。但是我們的哲人宣稱，沒有正義，人類的社會在爭奪生存資源時，將趨向於暴力衝突和自我毀滅。 」 江老師的文章

41 中國時報全文影像資料庫 日期:811102 標題:科學研究沒有自外於社會條件 的特權 作者:李巧云 版序:26 版名:時報科學

42 二次戰後支持科學研究經費暴增，亦演成科學社群主流力量宰制和國家目的(軍事或商業因素)驅動的局面。
「二次大戰以來，美國擁有博士學位的科學家的增加，超過全國人口成長的速度。基礎科學的群體的擴展，基本上是研究經費增加的一種市場反應。」 「對於科學客觀性，一種文化上的過度尊崇，會造成僵硬政治教條的效果，且必然是主觀而帶有價值判斷的。」 他並且在文中引述美國艾森豪總統的話， 「我們固然必須尊重科學研究和發現，但也千萬要警覺，公共政策成為科學菁英宰制所可能造成的等同危險。」 布朗在《科學》雜誌上的專文〈理性的科學，不理性的現實：對基礎研究和社會的一個國會觀點〉 <Rational Science,Irrational Reality,A congressional Perspective on Basic Research and Society>George Brown Jr. <Science> Oct.1992 /聯合報/37版/聯合副刊 《迎接一個後科學時代的宇宙新思維》江才健

43 誰是布里辛斯基 (Zbigniew Brzezinski)

44 Zbigniew Brzezinski President Carter's National Security Adviser

45 布里辛斯基 (Zbigniew Brzezinski)
"失控“ Out of Control Global Turmoil on the Eve of the 21th Century 本作品由天下文化授權本課程『科學在文化中的定位與挑戰』使用，本資料庫無再授權他人使用之權利，如需利用本作品，請另行向權利人取得授權

46 放任的富裕 (Permissive Cornucopia)

47 布里辛斯基在他的這本著作中，一開始就對現今以科學和技術力量達到其強勢地位的西方先進國家，提出警語。
但是同樣的是這種人口的數目，能源的耗竭和環境的破壞，卻也都已經出現了許多警訊。科學和技術的發展，一方面似乎在迎戰這些危機，另一方面則因受到商業或軍事誘因的導引，走向難以預測的失控方向。美國卡特總統時代的國家安全顧問布里辛斯基(Zbigniew Brzezinski)在三年前他的一本著作中，便對這些發展提出了諸多警告。 布里辛斯基在他的這本著作中，一開始就對現今以科學和技術力量達到其強勢地位的西方先進國家，提出警語。 「先進國家在自由民主的內涵中提住了一種生活型態—我稱之為『放任的富裕』 (Permissive Cornucopia)。這種趨勢日甚一日，妨礙了西方政治訊息向全球的擴展。而隨著人類藉由基因或其他科學方式改變生理的能力提升(兩者都不受道德的限制)，以及個人自我滿足慾望不斷升高，人類的自制力也變得越來越薄弱。」 江老師的文章 但是同樣的是這種人口的數目，能源的耗竭和環境的破壞，卻也都已經出現了許多警訊。科學和技術的發展，一方面似乎在迎戰這些危機，另一方面則因受到商業或軍事誘因的導引，走向難以預測的失控方向。美國卡特總統時代的國家安全顧問布里辛斯基(Zbigniew Brzezinski)在三年前他的一本著作中，便對這些發展提出了諸多警告。布里辛斯基在他的這本著作中，一開始就對現今以科學和技術力量達到其強勢地位的西方先進國家，提出警語。先進國家在自由民主的內涵中提住了一種生活型態—我稱之為放任的富裕(Permissive Cornucopia)。這種趨勢日甚一日，妨礙了西方政治訊息向全球的擴展。而隨著人類藉由基因或其他科學方式改變生理的能力提升(兩者都不受道德的限制)，以及個人自我滿足慾望不斷升高，人類的自制力也變得越來越薄弱。

48 放任的富裕造成惡果 Flicker:RambergMediaImages Wall Street wikipedia

49 江老師的文章 經典雜誌 《金融風暴的科學因素》，江才健，《經典雜誌》，128期，2009年三月

50 金融風暴的科學因素 全球爆發金融風暴，一般討論的多謂是過度擴張信用消費，長期累積造成經濟體質衰竭，而病癥一現，造成信心崩潰，經濟衰退便成不可遏止之勢。目前探究問題大多都在經濟現象打轉，然而這些現象又是孰令致之？ 在經濟現象的背後，有一個生產力供需問題，其實與近代科學息息相關，而今日顯現的金融困境，究其原因，也與近代科學思維密不可分。 回顧近代科學的發展歷史，十七世紀以後近代科學逐漸在歐洲成就其主流思維地位，實證運作而來的強大致用力量，正是主因。近代科學在歐洲的鵠起，一路皆是拜這個致用之功；工業革命是造就歐洲繁盛的起步，因科學力量而來的船堅砲利，使歐洲的繁盛更上層樓，十九世紀末到二十世紀初，歐洲幾個列強就幾乎瓜分了整個非洲。如果說今日的歐洲有些文明鼎盛，其背後正是科學提供的搶奪力量所造成。 二十世紀科學在產業經濟的創新力量，更是勢如日中天。近代國家經濟體系的整併獨占，資本主義的推波助瀾，更強化了科學主導經濟產業發展的影響力，這種發展到二十世紀達於頂峰，國家經濟體累積大量相對財富，也創造出大量與生存非直接相關的產業人口，所謂中產階級是一個代表，近些年來大量增加的高科技新貴，更是一個表徵。 這種經濟發展造就的新階級，事實來自資本主義市場制度的相對價值，這種價值並不直接以資產本身素材為準，是以市場需要強度決定，這造成了某種脫離實際供需關係，完全以滿足消費慾望為目的的價值認定。 這一回的金融風暴，起因正是這種相對價值無限擴張所衍生的問題，這些金融商品的價值，一如支持其購買力的科技產品價值，都是過度脫離直接需求，由市場需求決定。 因此如果說今天的金融風暴要指責的是過度的經濟和消費擴張，或缺乏法制的規範管制，那麼科學所提供的一種立竿見影的因果思維，高科技所提供的便宜利用火力，亦難辭其咎。 但是這些對於近代科學的反省聲音，在全球國家追求經濟成長的熱烈競賽中，卻如馬耳東風，終於導致了今天的金融風暴，以及經濟的大危機。 在目前野火蔓延的金融風暴中，解決急迫問題的救火作為，似乎是各個國家不得不採取的行動，但是如果從長遠來看，一種新的思維，特別是完全改變過去因為科學成功所帶來的立竿見影，甚至可以說是一種急功近利的心態，可能才是根本的解決之道。 一九九二年哈維爾的文章曾經這樣寫道，「這是一個崇拜非個人化客觀思維的世代，一個累聚知識和竭用技術的世代，一個篤信由科學方法帶來進步的世代，一個系統、體制化、機械化以及統計平均的世代，一個以尋找世界普適解答，以及找出造就繁盛方法為目標的世代。」哈維爾認為，這個世代已經終結。 全球金融風暴正是近代科學造就近代紀元的一個危殆之徵，是歐洲文化的一個內在病癥，如同史賓格勒所說一個文化內在之癌的發作。 金融風暴對於傳承迥異的我人文化來說，則是一個以新思維走出新局面的歷史契機。

51 何不食肉糜的現代啟示錄

52 高科技產業競爭 少年飆車式的發展 Alex Tinti

53 Late Congressman George Brown Jr.

54 竭澤而漁的近代醫療 企業系統 Health Care (健康醫療) Sickness Care (病態醫療)

55 Schistosomiasis M Lymphatic Filariasis 120M

56 世界的真實現況 可交換的軟體 和 不可交換的生存

57 1989-1999: Ten Successful Years Bridging the Future
FORUM ENGELBERG : Ten Successful Years Bridging the Future The idea of FORUM ENGELBERG originated in the desire to find a philosophical equivalent for the Large Electron Positron Collider (LEP), the world's largest particle accelerator which was switched on by CERN in The aim was to create an International platform for debate amongst illustrious specialists working in such diverse fields as science, technology, economics, philosophy, politics and culture, providing opportunities for them to exchange views and discuss key issues affecting research and modern science which are of interest to the whole human race.The Forum responds to a double challenge: each year a different theme is chosen and analysed from a top-level scientific and interdisciplinary viewpoint. FORUM ENGELBERG was founded in 1989 as a non-profit autonomous organization (scientific association) under Art. 60 of the Swiss Civil Code. It has International status and its aims are non-political, non-denominational and open to all cultures of the world.

58 Forum Engelberg 1997 FOOD & WATER 18-21 March 1997 - 8th Conference
        Forum Engelberg 1997 FOOD & WATER A QUESTION OF SURVIVAL 18-21 March th Conference President: SONG Jian State Councillor, Minister, People's Republic of China, Beijing Co-President: Jakob NÜESCH President, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zürich

59 MOUNT TITLIS Engelberg Flicker:Casual Chin ENGELBERG MOON

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61 　　　　宋健，著名控制論專家，中國科學院與中國工程院院士。
　　　　　　　中國國務委員、國家科委主任、中國工程院院長。 　　　　　　　“星火計劃”、“火炬計畫”的倡儀者和領導人。

62 Forum Engelberg 1997 FOOD & WATER 18-21 March 1997 - 8th Conference
        Forum Engelberg 1997 FOOD & WATER A QUESTION OF SURVIVAL 18-21 March th Conference President: SONG Jian State Councillor, Minister, People's Republic of China, Beijing Co-President: Jakob NÜESCH President, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zürich

63 中國時報全文影像資料庫 日期: 標題: 恩格伯格的呼聲 作者: 江才健 版序: 25 版名: 時報科學 專欄: 人類生存資源探討系列之一

64 聯合國糧食暨農業組織經費 不如九個工業國家養狗貓六天的花費 比一個發達國家每年花在瘦身美容的百分之五還少 糧倉專家對每年以千億美金計的軍事花費感到憤怒

65 朱門酒肉臭,路有凍死骨                                                                                                "The Economist" shows the "evolution" that happens in today's developed world (Dec , 2003).

66 Nature

67 The path to malnourishment
An International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) model, developed by division director Mark Rosegrant, explores what might happen in the face of the recession. If global economic annual growth falls by 2–3 percentage points below recent years' figure of about 5%, and agricultural investment declines in parallel by 20% — a realistic scenario — this would result in cereal prices 30% above what is expected without a recession by 2020 (ref. 2). Globally, 16 million more children would be malnourished. However, if spending on agricultural research and development (R&D) is maintained (assuming a modest 3% decline in investment growth) in the face of this recession, cereal prices would be about 15% lower than the non-recession baseline in 2020, and malnutrition would be about the same as in the baseline scenario (see graph).

68 Nature Between 2005 and summer 2008, the international prices of wheat and maize (corn) tripled, and that of rice grew fivefold. Poor people typically spend 50–70% of their income on food,and their wages did not adjust quickly enough to compensate for their shrinking purchasing power. From 2003–05 to 2007, the number of undernourished people increased from some 848 million to 923 million, largely because of the food-price crisis1.

69 增加農業研究經費 Doubling all agricultural R&D in developing countries between 2008 and 2013, from US$5 billion to $10 billion, could increase agricultural growth by 1.1 percentage points a year, and lift about 282 million people out of poverty by 2020 (ref. 2). Although this would mark a historic turnaround in such investment, it pales in comparison to the financial bailout costs. Much investment will have to be facilitated by public sources, in view of the deepening shortage of private capital and the risky investment climate. Institutions such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have recently reversed their declining investments in agriculture, with substantial increases seen in 2007 and Such trends need to continue.

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71 聯合國糧農組織估計2009年全球飢餓人口為10億2千萬人， 這是1970年代以來的最高峰。
南亞及太平洋地區 6億4200萬 撒哈拉沙漠以南地區 2億6500萬 拉丁美洲和加勒比海地區 5300萬 近東與北非洲地區 4200萬 已開發國家 1500萬

72 2009年羅馬糧食安全高峰會議 在今天，就會有超過一萬七千名兒童餓死，每五秒一人死亡，每年有六百萬兒童餓死。
世界糧食充足有餘，饑民卻超過十億。 ------聯合國祕書長潘基文

73 世界人口數 (根據聯合國估計資料) 西元 億9千萬 西元 億8千萬 西元 億6千萬 西元 億5千萬 西元 億2千萬 西元 億6千萬 西元 億1千萬 (預估中值)

74 Nature

75 http://www. nature. com/nature/journal/v402/n6761supp/full/402c81a0

76 In its deepest sense, the end of Communism has brought a major era in human history to an end. It has brought an end not just to the 19th and 20th centuries, but to the modern age as a whole. The End of Modern Era

77 版權標示頁

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