What caused the global economic crisis?

Presentation on theme: "What caused the global economic crisis?"— Presentation transcript:

1 Global Economic Crisis & Workers Rights: Issues for Unions 全球经济危机与工人权利 工会面临的问题

2 What caused the global economic crisis?
全球经济危机的根源 - Immediate causes直接原因 Fundamental roots of the crisis 危机的根源 What can we learn from it? 给我们的教训

3 Background of the crisis危机的背景
US Internet stocks crash in – to counter threat of recession, interest rate lowered to 1% in easy money availability set off housing market boom & speculation 2001－2002年美国互联网泡沫崩溃－为免于衰退，2003年利率下调至1％－轻易获得贷款带来房地产市场泡沫和投机 Housing loans market was lucrative since these loans could be sold as securities (CDOs) to other banks & financial institutions, who in turn bundled these CDOs into giant securities & sold it to others & so on – the value of these securities now runs into trillions (no one has any exact idea) 由于贷款可作为证券销售，房地产贷款市场利润可观，购买这些房地产证券的银行和投资机构将这些证券与大的证券捆绑打包卖给其他人，一环接一环，最后大大抬高了这些证券的价格

4 Background of the crisis 危机的背景
To cover risk of default on CDOs, buying institutions bought insurance (credit default swaps) – which generated huge profits for insuring companies - CDS market is said to be as big as $45 trillion – both CDOs & CDS market is not regulated by govt. 为掩盖CDO带来的风险，收购这些CDO的机构开始买保险，给保险公司带来巨额利润 Crisis erupted when housing interest rates were raised in Aug 2007, housing loan defaults started, housing market crash & CDOs became worthless… banks & insurance Cos. fail  liquidity crunch  real economy faces credit squeeze  consumption, building activity & cash flows reduce  US recession + globalization  global troubles 随着2007年8月提高住房贷款利率，危机爆发，引发房贷坏账，房地产市场崩盘，CDO严重贬值

5 Impact on Asia 对亚洲的影响 资本从亚洲外流-对亚洲各个经济体、证券市场和货币的影响？ 西方市场衰退，影响亚洲产品和经济增长
Outflow of capital from Asia (>100 billion $$$ in 2008) – what was its impact on Asian economies, stock markets & currencies? 资本从亚洲外流-对亚洲各个经济体、证券市场和货币的影响？ Impact of recession in western markets on Asian production & economic growth 西方市场衰退，影响亚洲产品和经济增长 Impact of credit squeeze on domestic investments, industry & jobs 压缩信贷对国内投资、工业和就业机会的影响 Remittances, foreign aid, govt revenue go down 汇款、外援资金、政府财政收入下滑

6 Impact on Asia 对亚洲的影响 Workers pension funds - globally pension funds lost over 5 trillion $ between 2007 & 2008) – in some countries where pensions were privatised (ex in Latin America), they lost more 工人养老基金 年间全球养老金减少5万亿美元—在一些养老金私营化的国家，损失更加严重，如拉美。 Implications for collective agreements & industrial relations (wage cuts, wage freeze, rise in casual unprotected work, higher work loads, forced unpaid leave, default on social security contributions, violations of FoA) 对集体合同和产业关系的影响（包括削减工资、临时工作岗位增加、工作量增加、强迫不带薪休假、欠付社会保险金、违反结社自由权等）

7 Possible Impact according to ILO 国际劳工组织预测可能带来的影响
Increase in unemployment by over 50 million in 2009 2009年，全球失业人数将增加5千万 About 200 million people into extreme poverty, majority in developing countries 约2亿人陷入赤贫，多在发展中国家 Working poor (earning below US$2 per person, per day) can go up to 1.4 billion (45% of the world’s employed) 工作贫困人口将增加至14亿，占全球总受雇人口的45%。 Conditions of self employed & workers in informal employment much worse 非正规部门自雇业者的状况更加恶化

8 But - what are the root causes of the global economic crisis?
但是这场全球经济危机的根源何在？

9 The root causes 根源 Crisis of over production/over capacity & erosion of profitability (due to social inequalities that limit purchasing powers) - Need for constantly increasing profits requires capital to keep looking for new markets – for cheap labour, cheap sources of raw materials, new markets to invest & sell 生产过剩或生产能力过剩危机（由于社会不公限制人们的购买力）-资本的逐利原则使得资本不断寻找新的市场，以得到廉价的劳动力、廉价的原材料和新的投资和销售市场。 lack of regulation of financial markets & institutions - ‘markets know the best’ philosophy – greed & speculation - de-regulation of economy & labour markets 金融市场缺乏监管-“市场万能”理论，导致贪婪和投机行为失控-对经济和劳动力市场自由化 lets look at post war economic history of the world ! 试看战后经济发展历史

10 The root causes 根源 s : welfare state, keynesian economic policies, strong unions, rapid economic growth – this period came to end in late 1970s due to - increased global competition, tremendous rise in productive capacities (Germany, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Brazil), reducing profitability – on top of this process came oil price shocks S：福利国家、凯恩斯主义经济政策、强工会、高速的经济增长，直到上世纪七十年代结束，主要原因在于全球竞争加剧、生产能力剧增、利润降低，以及石油价格危机 Post 1970s - Neo-liberal restructuring of economies - Reaganism & Thatcherism & structural adjustment (1980s) - redistribute incomes towards the rich on the theory that rich invest & that will promote economic growth – have these policies worked? 上世纪七十年代以后-新自由主义经济改组-里根主义、撒切尔主义和结构调整（八十年代）

11 …then came Globalization 带来全球化
Integration of China, India, Brazil, Russia, & many other emerging market economies – as production centres, markets, sources of cheap labour, raw materials 中国、印度、巴西、俄罗斯和其他新兴市场经济体的一体化-作为生产中心、市场、廉价劳动力和原材料来源 Almost 40-50% of the profits of US corporations come from their operations & sales abroad now, especially in China. 美国企业40-50%的利润来自中国在内的海外市场 But - Globalization increases the problem of over-capacity, which depresses prices & profits 但是-全球化带来了能力过剩问题，造成价格和利润削减

12 Rise of Financialization 金融本位主义出现
Declining profits in industry & agriculture gave spurt to financial sector investments 工业和农业利润下降刺激金融行业投资 Financial sector creates profits but it doesn’t create new value 金融行业创造利润但不能创造新价值 Growth of trading in derivatives (Value of credit derivatives market is estimated at more than 8 times the global GDP) 金融衍生品贸易的出现

13 Financialization of Economy 经济的金融本位主义
Growth of (unregulated) private equity capital/hedge funds and their operations in mfg sector - profits are made by selling-off assets of companies, downsizing, reducing investment in plant & equipment, shutting down mfg operations, outsourcing production, share buy backs – all in the name of maximizing share-holder value 私人或无序证劵资本及操作-出售企业、裁员、减少企业设备投资、外包等带来的利润 Even mfg companies play markets rather than produce (Ex GE, GM, Porsche) – even social security funds MFG企业也开始做市场游戏，而不是进行生产-包括社会保险基金

14 Volatility of financial sector 金融部门的不稳定性
financial crises since capital markets were deregulated & liberalized in the 1980s 自上世纪八十年代资本市场放开和自由化之后出现的金融危机 - Japan in 日本 - Finland, Italy, UK, Sweden in 1992芬、意、英、瑞 - Mexican financial crisis in 墨西哥 - Asian Financial Crisis in 亚洲金融危机 - Russian Fin Crisis in 1998俄罗斯 - Argentine Fin collapse in 阿根廷 - US technology stocks crash in 美国

15 So, what needs to be done? 怎么办？
What is Capital saying? Create of Global Financial Regulatory Coordinating Council (comprised of private banks, IMF, WB), … BUT emergency action should not provide the basis for a permanent larger role for the public in the international financial system - Institute of International Finance (financial sector’s global lobby organization) 资本如何说？创立一个全球金融管理协调委员会（包括私有银行、IMF、WB），但必须采取紧急行动，为公共在国际金融体制中发挥更大作用奠定基础。

16 Union view 工会的观点 End deregulation of employment market & ensure respect for fundamental rights of workers (FoA & CB rights) 停止就业市场的无序化，保证工人的基本权利（包括结社自由和集体谈判权） Ensure basic social security for all (effective social protection measures would have minimized ‘impact of economic crisis’ and assisted in improving effectiveness of stimulus/recovery packages) 确保所有人享有基本社会保障（采取有效的社会保护措施，尽量减少经济危机的影响，提高刺激资金的有效性。） Eliminate tax havens, tax evasion, transfer pricing & currency transaction tax – to dampen speculation. 应采取适当的政策，减少避税天堂、逃税、转嫁价格和货币交易税-打击投机行为

17 Union view 工会的观点 What should be the objectives of International financial markets ? expand the casino in more orderly fashion OR to channel resources into real economy? Greater regulation of financial markets so that these serve the objectives of real economy 国际金融市场的目标是什么？有序扩大这种“赌场经济”，还是增加实体经济的资源？ What else??? 其他

18 ILO Approach 国际劳工组织的建议
Tripartite dialogue with social partners - should play a key role in addressing the economic crisis & developing policy responses at national level. 社会伙伴三方对话-解决危机，制定应对政策 Pre-condition for effective social dialogue: ??? 有效三方对话的前提条件 ILO promotes Global Jobs Pact 国际劳工组织提倡全球就业契约

19 ILO’s Global Jobs Pact 全球就业契约
Framework for national & international policies aimed at: 国家和国际政策框架的目标在于： A global economic recovery with job creation and the provision of social protection to working people and their families at its core; 全球经济复苏，增加就业，提供社会保护 Stronger regulatory framework for the financial sector; 加强对金融业的监管 Efficient and well-regulated trade and markets; 提高贸易和市场的效率和监管

20 ILO’s Global Jobs Pact 全球就业契约
Policy options identified include: 政策选择可包括： Employment incentive public investment; 刺激就业公共投资 Special employment programmes 特殊就业计划 Support for enterprises 支持企业发展 Broadening social protection and minimum wages 扩大社会保护，提高最低工资

21 Atleast one lesson for Asia 给亚洲的警示
Over dependence on exports & western markets Almost 60% of final demand for Asian goods comes from developed countries. Exports account for about 47% of developing Asia’s output 对出口和西方市场的过于依赖：亚洲商品60%出口到发达国家。出口占亚洲发展中国家总量47%。 For economic & social stability at home - Asian countries need development & expansion of domestic markets – this implies Decent Work & respect for fundamental labour standards. 国内的经济和社会稳定—亚洲国家需发展国内市场，促进体面劳动，遵守基本劳工标准。

22 Sources & further readings 参考书目
Wall Street Meltdown Primer – by Walden Bello, published on Friday, Sept 26, 2008 by Foreign Policy in Focus Talking Points: Economic Meltdown – by Chuck Collins, Oct 27, 2008, Institute for Policy Studies ( How bailouts Dwarf other global crisis spending – by Andersen, Cavanagh & Redman, Institute of Policy Studies, Nov 24, 2008 Voices from the South – Impact of the financial crisis on developing countries – Institute of Development Studies, Nov 2008 ( ILO Global Employment Trends Report 2009 IUF ( The G20 and After–Questions for Labour, 15 Dec 2008 Source: Financial Times, Asia and the crisis: Unlucky numbers By David Pilling, February RECOVERING FROM THE CRISIS: A GLOBAL JOBS PACT -