基准和额外性 Baselines and additionality

Presentation on theme: "基准和额外性 Baselines and additionality"— Presentation transcript:

1 基准和额外性 Baselines and additionality
中国CDM能力建设项目培训讲义 Training Material Building Capacity for the CDM in China 2019/1/2

2 基准线情景 ：The baseline scenario
基准线（基准线情景）：Baseline （baseline scenario ) 对没有CDM项目活动的情况下，对GHG排放趋势情况的预测 Scenario forecasted to show the trend of anthropogenic GHG emissions that would occur in the absence of the proposed CDM project. 项目情景：Project scenario 对有CDM项目活动的情况下，对GHG排放趋势情景的预测 Scenario forecast to show the trend of anthropogenic GHG emissions that would occur with the proposed CDM project intervention. 2019/1/2

3 基准线：Baseline CDM项目活动的基准线是一种假设情况合理代表在不开展拟议项目活动的情况下的温室气体人为源排放量。基准线应涵盖项目内附件A 所列所有气体部门和源类别的排放量 The baseline for a CDM project activity is the scenario that reasonably represents the anthropogenic emissions by sources of greenhouse gases that would occur in the absence of the proposed project activity. A baseline shall cover emissions from all gases, sectors and source categories listed in Annex A within the project boundary. 基准线可包含一种假设情况。这种假设情况预计未来人为源排放量因项目东道国的具体情况将超过目前水平 The baseline may include a scenario where future anthropogenic emissions by sources are projected to rise above current levels, due to the specific circumstances of the host Party. CDM modalities & procedures, paragraph 44 & 46 2019/1/2

4 基准线方法：Baseline approaches (MA48)
基准线方法的选择应从下列各项中选择最适合该项目活动的方法并就其选择说明理由 Select from among the following approaches the one deemed most appropriate for the project activity and justify the appropriateness of your choice: 现有实际排放量或历史排放量（如使用时） 在考虑到投资障碍的情况下，一种代表有经济吸引力的技术方案所产生的排放量 在过去五年同等社会经济环境和技术状况下，类似项目活动的平均排放量在同一类别位居前20% Existing actual or historical emissions, as applicable; Emissions from a technology that represents an economically attractive course of action, taking into account barriers to investment; The average emissions of similar project activities undertaken in the previous five years, in similar social, economic, environmental and technological circumstances, and whose performance is among the top 20 per cent of their category. 2019/1/2

5 建立基准线：Establishing a baseline
以一个具体项目为基础 依照所使用的已批准的或新的方法学之要求 以透明的和保守的方式选择进行方法、假设条件、方法学、数据源、关键因素及额外性，并考虑不确定性 考虑与项目业别有关的国家或产业政策和具体情况，如产亚改革行动、当地燃料供应、动力部门扩展计划以及其他经济条件 如果小型CDM项目活动，应依简化的程序建立活动，以符合简化的准择要求 On a project-specific basis; In accordance with provisions for the use of approved and new methodologies In a transparent and conservative manner manner regarding the choice of approaches, assumptions, methodologies, parameters, data sources, key factors and additionality, and taking into account uncertainty; Taking into account relevant national and/or sector policies and circumstances, such as sector reform initiatives, local fuel availability, power sector expansion plans, and the economic situation in the project sector. In the case of small-scale CDM project activities which meet the criteria specified in accordance with simplified procedures developed for such activities; 2019/1/2

6 额外性要求：Additionality requirements
CDM项目的温室气体减排应与减缓气候变化有关的真实的、可测量的和长期的效益 GHG emission reductions of CDM projects shall be real, measurable, and assure long-term benefits related to the mitigation of climate change CDM 项目温室气体的减排放应是在没有经证明的项目活动的情况下所产生的额外的所有排放量的减少 GHG emission reductions of CDM projects shall be additional to any that would occur in the absence of the certified project activity. Kyoto Protocol, Article 12/ 5(c) 清洁发展机制项目活动应具有额外性，即温室气体人为源排放量减少到低于不开展清洁发展机制项目活动情况下会出现的水平 A CDM project activity is additional if anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases by sources are reduced below those that would have occurred in the absence of the registered CDM project activity. CDM modalities & procedures, paragraph 43 2019/1/2

7 额外性评估：Additionality assessment
额外性评估是说明以所使用的方法学如何展示该项目具有额外性，并非基准线情景 Additionality assessment is an explanation of how, through the use of the methodology, it can be demonstrated that a project activity is additional and therefore not the baseline scenario. 通过流程图或一系列问题逐渐缩小基准情景选择的范围 定性或定量的评估不同可能的基准情景，并说明该基准情景的项目不可能实施 定性或定量地评估所提议的项目实施障碍 展示说明该项目不是通常惯例，例如发生的情况 <全部可能情况的X% A flow-chart or series of questions that lead to a narrowing of potential baseline options; A qualitative or quantitative assessment of different potential options and an indication of why the non-project option is more likely; A qualitative or quantitative assessment of one or more barriers facing the proposed project activity; (An indication that the project type is not common practice (e.g. occurs in less than < x % of all cases) 2019/1/2

8 额外性：引用新法规 Additionality: Introduction of new legislation
Type E+: Existing national and/or sectoral policies or regulations that create policy driven market distortions which give comparative advantages to more emissions-intensive technologies or fuels over less emissions-intensive technologies or fuels. 只有在” E+类”的国家及（或）产亚政策或法规在COP缔结京都议定书（ 之decision 1/CP.3)前已实行者，在建立基准线清景可被纳入考虑。如“E+类”的国家及（或）产亚政策或法规在COP缔结京都议定书后才推行者，其基准线清景应以没有此类政策或法规之假设情况为是 -Only “Type E+” national and/or sectoral policies or regulations that have been implemented before adoption of the Kyoto Protocol by the COP (decision 1/CP.3, 11 December 1997) shall be taken into account when developing a baseline scenario. If “Type E+” national and/or sectoral policies were implemented since the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol, the baseline scenario should refer to a hypothetical situation without the national and/or sectoral policies or regulations being in place. E-类：现行国家及（或）产亚政策或法规，使排放较少的技术比排放较大的技术/能源的能耗更有竟争性（如对可再生能源的公共补偿或资助方案） Type E-: National and/or sectoral policies or regulations that give positive comparative advantages to less emissions-intensive technologies over more emissions-intensive technologies (e.g. public subsidies to promote the diffusion of renewable energy or to finance energy efficiency programs): ” E-类”的国家及（或）产亚政策或法规在COP缔结京都议定书（ 之decision 1/CP.3)后才实行者，在建立基准线清景可不被纳入考虑 （即其基准线清景应以没有此类政策或法规之假设情况为是） Type E- national and/or sectoral policies or regulations that have been implemented since the Adoption by the COP of the CDM M&P (decision 17/CP.7, 11 November 2001) may not be taken into account in developing a baseline scenario (i.e. the baseline scenario should refer to a hypothetical situation without the national and/or sectoral policies or regulations being in place). 2019/1/2

9 额外性工具：The additionality tool
0. 对早期开始项目的考虑 0: Justify early start of the project and show that CDM was considered 1. 与法规要求相关的基准选择 1. Baseline options related to existing laws and regulations 2. 投资分析 2.Investment analysis: 简单的NVP/IRR,标杆：Simple, NPV/IRR, benchmark 比较，敏感性分析：Comparisons, sensitivity analysis 3. 其他障碍 3: Other barriers: 首个项目、能力、技术 Other: First of kind, capacity, technology etc.. 4. 证明项目不是常规项目： 4:Demonstarte that the project is not common practice 5. 对注册的影响: 5: Impact of CDM registration 2019/1/2

10 额外性判断范例-步骤1 Additionality testing example -Step 1
定义替代方法 Define alternatives: 此项目不会成为CDM项目 The project not undertaken as CDM project 所有其他可能的情景 All other plausible and credible scenarios 常态情形（如使用时） The business as usual (as applicable) 检验法规 Check towards legislation 若法规未实行， 则可使该项目具有额外性 If legislation is not enforced, this may cause the project to be additional 2019/1/2

11 额外性判断范例-步骤2 - Additionality testing example -Step 2
计算提交项目的保守内部回报率IRR 排除售出CERs的预期收入 包括更新非常规商业项目的所有成本： 可能的追加投资 运行成本 维护成本 包括所有项目活动产生的收入： 销售所发的电力 由于使用自发电的成本节约、 Calculate a conservative internal rate of return (IRR) for the proposed project activity Excluding expected revenue from the sale of CERs. Include the incremental investment cost, the operations and maintenance costs, and all other costs of upgrading the BAU scenario to the proposed project activity. Also include all revenues generated by the project activity, including revenue from the sale of electricity and cost savings due to avoided electricity purchases, 2019/1/2

12 额外性判断范例-步骤2 - Additionality testing example Step 2
确定项目的IRR是否明显低于参照项目期望的或可接受的IRR或与相似国家的项目进行比较 保守可接受的IRR的标准 政府债券利率或其他估算的资金成本（商业贷款利率） 专家对期望的IRR的意见或项目类型的比较 其他适用在行业或国家的障碍. Determine whether the project IRR is significantly lower than a conservatively (i.e. rather low) expected and acceptable IRR for an alternative to this project or a comparable project type in the relevant country. The conservatively acceptable IRR can be based on: Government bond rates or other appropriate estimates of the cost-of-capital (e.g. commercial lending rates); Expert views on expected IRRs for this or comparable project types; Other hurdle rates that can be applied for the country or sector. 2019/1/2

13 壁垒与经济决策原理（1）： Barriers and Economic Theory (1)
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14 壁垒与经济决策原理（2）：Barriers and Economic Theory (2)
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15 投资项目经济分析：Project financial analysis
净现值（NPV）： 内部报酬率（IRR）: B =（收入） Benefits C = （成本）Costs 2019/1/2

16 时间价值：Time Value 你现在可以选择： 现在获得1000美元： A. Receive $10,000 now OR
3年后获得1000美元：B. Receive $10,000 in three years 现在的1万元比今后的1万元价值高 now are worth more than in the future 2019/1/2

17 未来价值：Future Value 2019/1/2

18 现值：Present Value 2019/1/2

19 净现值：Net Present Value 净现值是指在项目计算期内，按行业基准折现率或其他设定折现率计算的各年净现金流量现值的代数和。
Net Present Value is the cumulative present value of income (positive values) and a series of future payments (negative values) from a series of investment cash flow using a discount rate to handle time values of money. i = Discount rate CF = Cash Flow j = the j-th period n = the total number of the period 2019/1/2

20 净现值：Net Present Value 当净现值为正时， NPV > 0 ：由于资本所值大于其成本，因而增加企业的价值；
more economic attractive 当净现值为负时， NPV < 0：由于资本成本大于其所值，因而减少企业价值, less economic attractive 净现值为零时， NPV = 0：意味着投资人已经赚到与投资风险相应的适当回报。 Balance attractive 2019/1/2

21 内部收益率：IRR 当效益和成本的现值相等时的投资的回报率
IRR is the discount rate r which makes the NPV of the investment exactly zero. 内部收益率就是当一个项目的净现值等于零的贴现率。如果计算出一个项目的内部收益率等于15％，而项目投资的成本10％，那么，这个项目在财务上即有吸引力；如果项目投资的成本18％，那么，这个项目在财务上就没有吸引力。 内部收益率不能给出贴现率，它只能找出满足既定条件即净现值为零时的贴现率。然后必须将计算所得的内部收益率同其他金融利率或贴现率进行比较，以确定项目在财务上和经济上是否可行。 2019/1/2

22 步骤2总结：Step 2 summary 如果NPV/IRR 太低，无论CERs的收入如何，项目将不会被考虑
if NPV/IRR is too low, the project will not go ahead anyway, regardless of the CERs revenue or not; 如果NPV/IRR太高，将难以解释投资障碍的问题。 if NPV/IRR is too high, the project will have difficulties in explaining the investment barrier, as it may be argued that it would be implemented anyway, regardless of the CERs revenue. 项目投资分析中涉及许多假设情况，DOE在审定此一问题时非常困难 it is very difficult for the DOE to check the IRR as we don't know a project developer's internal costing approach, the way benefits are evaluated, etc. there are a lot of assumptions in such calculations, as we're talking about future cash flows. 指定经营实体一般采取向有关管理部门或利害相关方了解NPV/IRR是否合理 DNV bases its judgement on experiences with similar projects in the respective sector and country context and will ask authorities or other stakeholders whether the NPV/IRR analysis in the PDD is reasonable. 在PDD文件中应增加对投资障碍的数量分析 Add a qualitative discussion about the NPV/IRR in your PDD to make the case of an investment barrier. 2019/1/2

23 额外性判断范例-步骤3 - Additionality testing example -Step 3
壁垒评估 Barrier assessment: 投资壁垒 Investment barriers 技术壁垒 Technological barriers 因流行实务造成的壁垒 Barriers due to prevailing practice 支持壁垒的充分证据 Support barriers with sufficient evidence 证明最终的情景无法避免此壁垒 （那就是基线!) Show that at least one of the scenarios would not be prevented by the barriers (that will be the baseline!) 2019/1/2

24 额外性判断范例-步骤4 - Additionality testing example -Step 4
惯用实务分析 Common practice analysis: 其他活动 Other activities 类似发生情况 Similar options occurring 讨论说明 Discuss! 2019/1/2

25 步骤5 CDM 注册的影响：Step 5. Impact of CDM registration
Explain how the approval and registration of the project activity as a CDM activity, and the attendant benefits and incentives derived from the project activity, will alleviate the economic and financial hurdles (Step 2) or other identified barriers (Step 3) and thus enable the project activity to be undertaken. 项目的获益可有不同的形式： The benefits and incentives can be of various types, such as: 温室气体的减排：Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission reductions; 出售CERs的收入：The financial benefit of the revenue obtained by selling CERs, 吸引其他的新的项目：Attracting new players who are not exposed to the same barriers, or can accept a lower IRR (for instance because they have access to cheaper capital), 吸引其他的投资方：Attracting new players who bring the capacity to implement a new technology, and 减少风险：Reducing inflation /exchange rate risk affecting expected revenues and attractiveness for investors. 2019/1/2