Global economic crisis

Presentation on theme: "Global economic crisis"— Presentation transcript:

1 Growth with Social Justice: lessons from global economic crisis 保证社会公正的经济增长： 从全球经济危机中吸取的教训

2 Global economic crisis
全球经济危机 - What caused it? Why did it affect Asian countries? - 原因是什么？为什么影响到亚洲国家？ How are govts addressing the issues? 政府怎样应对危机？ What can we learn from it? 我们从中吸取到哪些经验？

3 Impact on Asia 危机对亚洲的影响
Outflow of capital from Asia (>100 billion $$$ in 2008) – Asian economies, stock markets & currencies affected 资本从亚洲撤离（2008年超过1000亿美元）——亚洲经济、股市和货币受到影响 Recession in western markets affected Asian production, employment & economic growth 西方市场衰退对亚洲制造业的就业和经济增长造成影响 Impact of credit squeeze on domestic investments, industry & jobs 信贷紧缩对国内投资、产业和就业造成影响 Remittances, foreign aid, govt revenue – all went down 国外汇款、外援、政府财政收入——纷纷下降

4 Impact of Crisis 危机影响 212 mn jobless world wide in 2009 – crisis added atleast 34 mn more since 年全球失业人口达到2.12亿——自2007年以来危机造成至少3400万人失业 Loss to pension funds: over 5 trillion $ between 2007 & 2008) – higher loss in countries where pensions were privatized 养老基金损失： 年间损失了5万多亿美元——养老金私有化的国家遭受更严重的损失 Wage cuts/wage freeze – real wages fell from 4.7% in 2007 to 1.5% in 2008 – situation worsened in 2009, 工资削减、工资增长停滞-实际工资增长率从2007年的4.7%下降到了2008年的1.5%-2009年形势继续恶化 Default on social security contributions, rise in unprotected precarious work, violations of FoA & CBAs 停止社会保障缴纳、不受保护的非正规就业增加、结社自由和集体谈判权利受到侵害

5 Global Economic Crisis: few lessons for developing countries 全球经济危机：对发展中国家的教训
Over dependence on exports & western markets 过度依赖出口和西方市场 For economic & social stability - countries also need domestic markets – how to develop & expand domestic & regional markets?对于经济和社会稳定——各国需要发展国内市场——怎样发展和扩大国内和区域市场？ Reduce widening inequalities: need for wages & incomes policy in the country to ensure equitable sharing in growth/productivity 减少不断扩大的差异：各国需要采取工资/收入政策，保证经济增长和生产率增加所带来的成果平等分享 Labour standards & development: role of right to organize, collective bargaining & social security 劳工标准和发展：组织权利、集体谈判权利和社会保障权利的作用

6 Globalization & Inequalities 全球化和贫富差距
Theory: Rich invest, poor consume – so redistribute income towards the rich to promote growth - and rising tide will lift all boats 理论：有钱人投资，穷人消费——所以收入再分配要倾向于有钱人以促进经济增长——水涨船高 But what has happened? 但是事实如何？ Growth yes but widening inequalities 经济增长伴随着贫富差距扩大 Decline in labour’s share of GDP 劳动力占GDP的比例下降

7 Population & Wealth Shares by Region (2000) 各区域人口和财富分配（2000年）
the richest 10% own 85% of the global assets (2000). 最富有的10%拥有全球资产的85%（2000年）。 50% of the world population owns less than 1% of the global assets. 50%的全球人口拥有不到1%的全球资产。 Source: UNU-WIDER

8 China: poverty down, inequality up 中国：贫困人口减少、贫富差距拉大
between 1981 & 2001, population below poverty line fell from 53% to just 8% (Ravallion & Chen, 2007) 1981年-2001年间，低于贫困线人口从53%下降到了8%。 but inequalities increased - Gini Coefficient jumped from 0.32 in 1987 to 0.47 in 但是贫富差距拉大——基尼系数从1987年的0.32增加到了2009年的0.47. average per capita wealth in 2010: $17,126 BUT median wealth was just $6,327 - it means wealth created has not been evenly distributed (Source: 2010 Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report) 2010年人均财富为17,126美元，但是财富中值仅为6,327美元——这意味着创造出来的财富没有平均分配。 Wage share decreases 22 years in a row! (China Daily) Share of wages in GDP dropped to about 37% (2005) from 56% in 工资占GDP的比例连续22年下降！（中国日报）工资占GDP的比例从1983年的56%下降到了2005年的37%。

9 Urban v/s Rural Incomes in China 中国城镇收入与农村收入对比
Source:

10 Over dependence on Exports 过度依赖出口
Almost 60% of final demand for Asian goods comes from developed countries. 亚洲产品最终需求的60%来自于发达国家 China: growth comes from investments and exports, household consumption contributed about 1/3rd of GDP in 中国：投资和出口带动经济增长，2010年家庭消费对GDP的贡献为1/3 Exports contributed about 50% to income growth of China (pre-2008) - makes China vulnerable to slowdown in the US & EU. 出口对中国收入增长的贡献为50%（2008年以前）- 这使得中国易受美欧经济衰退影响

11 Distribution of the wealth generated in export sector (China) 出口行业创造财富的分配（中国）
Labour productivity in China has grown by about 20% per year, while real wages grew by less than half - share of wages in value added has been declining 中国劳动生产率每年增长20%，而实际工资增长率不到10%——工资占增值的比例在下降 2/3rd of the income in Export sector goes to capital (a good part of it to foreign capital), less than 20% goes to labour 出口行业2/3的收入分配给资本（其中很大一部分为外资），只有不到20%的收入分配给劳动者 for the economy as a whole, share of wages in GDP fell to about 40% after fluctuating between % in the 1990s - share of wages in export sector is lower than that for the economy as a whole 从整体经济来看，工资占GDP的比例在20世纪90年代浮动于50-55%，如今下降到40%左右——出口行业工资占比低于整体经济

12 Limitations of Export led model 出口导向型模式的局限
Requires becoming internationally competitive by keeping wages low, suppressing domestic consumption & keeping exchange rate undervalued (weakening of domestic currency) 为保持国际竞争力，需要压低工资、压制国内消费、保持货币贬值（削弱国内货币流通） Employment does not increase much since domestic demand and domestic market remain limited. Gains from growth are invested abroad (often) 由于国内需求和国内市场受到限制，就业不会大幅增加。经济增长所带来的成果（常常）用于海外投资。 Moreover, if all countries are becoming export oriented, competition increases, prices keep falling and gains start declining. 此外，如果所有国家都成为出口导向型国家，竞争将加剧，价格不断下降，收益开始减少。

13 Lessons from crisis: 危机带来的教训：
Need to address unequal income distribution between capital & labour - one of the root causes of global economic crisis, social conflicts and obstacle to China’s growth in future. 有必要解决资本和劳工之间收入分配不公的问题——这是国际经济危机、社会冲突和中国未来发展障碍的根源之一。 Need to shift from export led to domestic consumption led growth 有必要从出口导向型经济增长模式转变为国内消费导向型模式。 Need for wage policy and labour standards to ensure that wage share in the GDP does not go down so much as to leave workers with no choice but to resort to debt financed consumption 需要工资政策和劳工标准来保证工资占GDP的比例不会大幅下降，否则工人将失去选择的权利，只能寻求负债支撑的消费。

14 ILO’s Response 国际劳工组织的对策
Global Jobs Pact adopted in June 2009 – 2009年6月通过的全球就业契约- a framework for Decent Work led policies aimed at economic recovery with job creation and the provision of social protection to working people and their families at its core; 以体面劳动为基础的政策，旨在通过创造就业、为劳动者及其家庭提供社会保护来促进经济复苏； Process: Tripartite dialogue with social partners for addressing the crisis & developing national policy response. 过程：社会伙伴通过三方对话应对危机，制定国家政策对策。 Focused on promoting use of wage policy tools, social protection and employment-led development policies with respect for workers rights 强调尊重工人权利，促进工资政策工具、社会保护和就业导向型发展政策的运用

15 Wages & labour standards led model 工资和劳工标准导向型模式
Requires wages to grow along with labour productivity – increases domestic demand and domestic market 要求工资与劳动生产率增长保持一致——增加国内需求和国内市场 When wage employment increases, the self-employed also enjoy an increase in demand for their products 当工资就业增长，自雇就业也会由于产品需求增加而增长。 Same effect on the economy if labour standards are ensured - since standards enable sharing in gains of growth & spread of purchasing powers. 如果劳工标准得以保证，经济也会收到同样效果——由于劳工标准保证经济增长成果的分享和购买力的扩大。

16 Policies required: 政策要求:
Right to Organize 组织权利 Promote Collective bargaining: makes wages more responsive to economic growth & reduces wage inequalities 促进集体谈判：让工资与经济增长一致，减少工资分配不平等 Pro-active Minimum Wage policy - to be regularly reviewed & adapted thru tripartite social dialogue - helps to promote wage floor – ensures sharing in growth 积极的最低工资政策——通过三方社会对话定期审议调整——促进工资底线——保证增长成果分享 Enforce labour contract law 执行劳动合同法 Social security for all 覆盖全民的社会保障

17 Tax Policy: 税收政策： Income of top 20% people is 18 times that of the lowest 20% people (Chinese Academy of Social Science) 收入最高的20%的人口与收入最低的20%的人口收入差约18倍 （中国社科院） In 2006, salaried persons contributed 60% of the whole tax income, while the rich contributed only 10% 年，工资收入者缴纳了税收收入的60%，而有钱人仅缴纳了10% Improve the taxation system, and reduce the burden on low income groups – reform tax incentives to corporate sector. 改善税收体系，减少低收入群体负担——改革企业税收激励机制。 Improve the social security coverage in urban and rural families – use tax revenues & dividends of SOEs for social transfers & social investments. 改善社会保障对农村和城镇家庭的覆盖——使用税收和国企分红来做社会转移支付和社会投资。

18 China 中国 Main drivers of growth: Investment and Exports - Private consumption low compared to other countries (Wages are the main source of consumption in China) 经济增长的主要引擎：投资和出口——私人消费相对其他国家较低（工资是中国消费的主要来源） If investments are more than domestic consumption, then dependence on foreign markets is the only way out to maintain growth – but can China continue to export at the same rate as in last decade? 如果投资高于国内消费，对国外市场的依赖是维持增长的唯一途径——但是中国能否继续过去十年的出口率？ If not, then the only way to maintain high growth is to raise domestic consumption – which means policies to raise wage share & disposable incomes 如果不能，那维持高增长率的唯一方式就是提高国内消费——这就意味着采取提高工资比例和可支配收入的政策

19 Shifting towards domestic market requires also 转向国内市场还要求
Shift from export led to consumption led growth (domestic market) requires also Human Resource policies to facilitate this industrial restructuring 由出口为导向型增长转变为消费导向型增长（国内市场）需要人力资源政策来促进这一产业结构调整 factors of production & investment cannot be easily shifted –role of State in allocation of investment and skills towards areas that need to expand to meet higher domestic consumption. 生产和投资要素不会轻易转变——国家在转变投资结构和技能结构、满足扩大国内消费需要的作用 Increased public social welfare expenditure on health, education, social protection, especially in rural areas – this would reduce precautionary household savings and increase disposable income. 增加医疗、教育、社会保护等公共社会福利开支，尤其是在农村地区——这将会减少预防性家庭储蓄，增加可支配收入。

20 Why Labour Standards? 为什么需要劳工标准？
Are labour standards only a question of ‘rights’ of workers? 劳工标准是否仅仅是工人“权利”的问题？ Voice, representation & participation 声音、代表和参与 What role do FoA, Collective Bargaining, Social Security & safe & healthy working conditions play in economic development? 结社自由、集体谈判、社会保障、安全卫生的工作条 件在经济发展中发挥什么样的作用？