Climate System,Climate Prediction and Climate Change

Presentation on theme: "Climate System,Climate Prediction and Climate Change"— Presentation transcript:

1 Climate System,Climate Prediction and Climate Change
Dr.SONG Yan Dept. of Science and Technology Training Training Centre of China Meteorological Administration

2 Ⅲ Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change

3 Outline Definitions of key terms
Individual Extreme events caused by climate change Causes for climate change Adaptation and Mitigation Differences, similarities between adaptation and mitigation Problems and gaps between China and Developed Countries

4 Definitions of key terms
Climate change in IPCC usage refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. This usage differs from that in the Framework Convention on Climate Change, where climate change refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods (可对比的时间时期）. Adaptation is the adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli （刺激）or their effects, which moderates (缓和） harm or exploits（利用） beneficial opportunities. Vulnerability （脆弱性）is the degree to which a system is sus'ceptible to（对…敏感）, and unable to cope with（应付）, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change and the variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity（敏感性） and its adaptive （适应的）capacity.

5 In the coming decades, climate change is expected to ex‘acerbate（使…加剧,恶化） the risks of disasters, not only from more frequent and intense hazard events, but also through greater vulnerability to the existing hazards. More frequent and intense storms and floods and long-lasting droughts can erode （侵蚀）existing community coping(应付） ca'pacity to prepare, respond and rebuild after successive hazard events. The other adverse impacts of climate change, for example on public health, ecosystems, food security, migration （移民）will increase the vulnera’bility of communities to natural hazards of all types. This in turn (依次）may also exacerbate the struggle for access （获取）to, or control of, scarce （稀有的）resources and increase the likelihood （可能性）of migration or even conflict.

6 Any increase in disasters, whether large or small, will threaten development gains（硕果） and hinder（阻碍） the implementation （执行）of the Mi‘llennium （千年）Development Goals. Many of the countries that are already of humani'tarian（人道主义者） concern and which have populations （人口）that are highly vulnerable will face even greater risks because of the impacts of climate change.

7 Individual Extreme events caused by climate change

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9 Rainstorm in China Since 1950s, summer floods around Yangtze river (1954、1969、1975、1991、1993、1994、1995、1996、1998、2003) were caused by such rainstorms, and made a lot of economic loss for China.

10 A forest fire in America on 6 August, 2000

11 Influences of extreme weather and climate events are more severe!

12 Typhoon Rananim on August 2004 in China is the strongest one for the past 50 years death toll: more than 183 persons 中国(HDW) 2004年8月17日——今天亚洲各大新闻媒体都在报道“云娜”台风造成的死亡人数超过183。 “云娜”台风是50年来袭击中国最强的一次台风。 (

13 Hurricane Katrina attracted America in 2005（8
Hurricane Katrina attracted America in 2005（8.28～30） death toll: more than 1300 persons 2005年美国南部6个州因“卡特里娜”飓风而死亡的人超过1300人。参议院民主党领袖里德估计， “卡特里娜”飓风给美国带来的损失可能高达1500亿美元。

14 Super strong typhoon Saomai in China in 2006
8月10日下午17时25分，超强台风“桑美”在浙江省苍南县马站镇登陆，登陆时中心气压920百帕，近中心最大风速60米/秒（十七级）。10日2时至11日8时，有9个站的降雨量达到200毫米以上。其中，最大的是苍南云岩，降雨量达到430毫米。 “桑美”造成福建死亡人数超过230人,浙江死亡人数超过200人。    death toll: more than 430 persons

15 Typhoon Saomai (the strongest one in the past 100 years)
2006年8月10日百年一遇超强台风“桑美”登陆我国 “桑美”在浙江省苍南县登陆时，近中心最大风速60米/秒（17级）

16 Beijing Sand-dust storm in Spring, 2004

17 Beijing Strong Sandstorm in 2006
Falling dust 330,000 tons only one night on April 16-17! 2006年4月16－18日，北方地区出现一次强沙尘暴天气过程。北京16－17日一夜总降尘量达33万吨。

18 Time series of sand storms in north of China during 1954~2005
（根据周自江，2003重绘） Declining tendency in North of China in recent 50 years

19 Snowstorm in Northeast of China on March, 2007
2007年3月初东北地区出现50年来历史同期最强降雪 3月2日至5日，东北等地出现了1951年以来历史同期最强的暴风雪，局部地区积雪深度超过1米。 民航、公路、铁路、电力、教育、设施农业和居民生活等受到严重影响，直接经济损失超过45亿元。 Traffic collapse in Liaoning province Local snow depth exceeds 1 meter