Bank of Italy, Structural economic analysis directorate

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1 Bank of Italy, Structural economic analysis directorate
Distinctive Features of Inequality in a Stagnating Country 经济发展停止国家不公平的显著特征 Roberto Torrini Bank of Italy, Structural economic analysis directorate 意大利银行结构经济分析司

2 Inequality in Italy before and after the crisis
意大利在危机前和危机后的不公平 The main impact of recent global trends is not a rise in income inequality but the economic decline of the country. Italy has suffered from a loss of competitiveness and a marked slowdown of income growth before the crisis and from a generalized impoverishment during the great recession. 近期全球趋势的主要影响并不是收入不公平的上升，而是国家经济下滑。意大利损失了竞争力，危机前收入增长明显放缓，经济衰退期间贫困规模扩大。 The Italian case also shows that country specific political choices are of paramount importance for inequality and poverty and they should not be overlooked. 意大利的情况说明每个国家的政策选择对于不公平和贫困来说是至关重要的，这些政策不应被忽视。 The Italian welfare state exhibits structural flaws that do not depend on global trends. Poverty and inequality are structurally at high levels. 意大利福利体系体现的结构性缺陷并不取决于全球趋势。贫困和不公平的结构性缺陷处于较高水平。 2 2

3 Italy has suffered from a stagnating economy since the end of the 1990s and from a huge drop of GDP and disposable income during the recent great recession. GDP back to the 1990s, Households Disposable Income (GHDI) back to the levels of the late 1980s 自20世纪90年代末期开始，意大利经济发展停滞不前；近年来的经济衰退期内，GDP和可支配收入均明显下滑。 GDP回到90年代水平，居民可支配收入回到80年代末期水平。 Brandolini, Gambacorta and Rosolia, (2017), Inequality Amid Income Stagnation: Italy over the last Quarter of Century. 收入停滞不前中的不公平：上世纪最后25年间意大利的情况。 3 3

4 Gini index, equivalent income
Inequality increased during the 1992 currency crisis, much less so during the double recession following the financial crisis 1992年货币危机期间不公平有所上升，金融危机之后的二次衰退期间不公平程度也稍有所上升 Gini index, equivalent income 等值收入的基尼系数 Bank of Italy, Annual report, 2016 意大利银行2016年度报告 4 4

5 Share of individuals in poverty
Poverty has increased during the crisis because of a widespread impoverishment of the Italian population 由于意大利人口贫穷的普遍化，危机期间贫困程度严重。 Share of individuals in poverty 个人占贫困的比例 Source: Istat 数据来源：意大利统计局 5 5

6 Further facts about Italy: 意大利的一些其他事实情况：
Welfare policies are largely inadequate to contrast poverty and disproportionately targeted to older people (actually older cohorts). Italian welfare still suffers from a categorical approach 严重缺乏充足的福利政策，无法对抗贫困，对老年人的针对性也不够。意大利的福利体系仍存在分类方法的问题。 Social spending is of little help for young workers and young households facing declining market opportunities, (critical situation for those who do not inherit a house or cannot receive economic support from their parents) 年轻职工和家庭面临着市场机会减少，而社会支出对其帮助很小（尤其是那些没有继承住房或父母无法给予经济支持的年轻人）。 retired people and still suffers from the categorical 6 6

7 Expenditure in social protection, composition
Welfare: expenditure in social protection is disproportionately targeted to old people 福利：社会保护开支对老年人的针对性和倾斜不足 Expenditure in social protection, composition 社会保护开支，按组成分类 由上至下分别为：住房、失业、家庭和儿童、疾病和残疾、老年和生存者。左：欧元区；右：意大利。 Source: Eurostat 来源：欧盟统计局。 7 7

8 Share of people at risk of poverty, 2014
Welfare: Young people are not protected. Only this year an anti-poverty measure has been introduced after 30 years of debate…but funding is far from sufficient 福利：年轻人未受到保障。在经过30年的辩论后，本年度才开始推行反贫措施，但是资金非常不充裕。 Share of people at risk of poverty, 2014 2014年面临贫困风险人群的比例 8 8

9 Challenges and conclusions
挑战和结论 9 9

10 Political Challenges: fiscal space is limited. 政治挑战：财务空间有限。
A reform of the welfare system to help people in need entails redistribution of income between households, reducing some transfers to households which are not at the top of income distribution. We need to overcome the categorical approach of our Mediterranean welfare model (political costs are potentially high) 对福利体系的改革能够帮助有需要的人群，调节居民间的收入分配，减少向不处于收入分配顶端的居民的转移支付。我们需要克服地中海福利模式的分类方法（政治成本非常高）。 10 10

11 Conclusions 结论 Economic growth is not sufficient but it is necessary. Italy needs to increase its growth potential 经济增长不充足但基本尚可。意大利需要增加其经济发展的潜力。 Inequality and poverty reduction requires economic growth but also major changes in the welfare policy 降低不公平和贫困需求经济发展，并对福利政策进行改革。 Some progress in the past legislation has been made with the reform of the unemployment benefits and the introduction of the so called Inclusion Income (Reddito di inserimento). But once again the reform fell short of promises. 通过对失业福利的改革，以及推出的可持续收入方案，相关立法取得了一些进展。但是，改革再次未能履行承诺。 New measures have been announced by the new Goverment. There are some risks related to the impact on labour market participation. Moreover the Government has announced an increase of public spending on pensions. 新政府宣布了新的措施。但存在着对劳动力市场参与产生影响的风险。此外，政府还宣布增加对养老保险的公共开支。 11 11

12 Thank you 谢谢 12 12