Lorentzen & Stemoco 大数据看买卖船市场 2016 年 6 月 2 日 1

Lorentzen & Stemoco 成立于 1919 年，经过近百年的发展壮大， L&S 不仅成为 航运咨询行业里的领跑者，同时也成为船舶融资和海工业的先行者。通过 分布在奥斯陆，纽约，伦敦，雅典，新加坡，香港和上海的分支机构， L&S 集结的近 100 位航运精英人才为全球客户提供 24 小时的不间断服务。 L&S 简介

3 Lorentzen & Stemoco 3 二手散货船交易渐活跃 2015 年散货船的未交付率在 40% 以上，而 2016 年至今接近 60% 。 L&S Research  近期散货船船东相继进入二手船市场收购 10yrs-15yrs 散货船。  尽管干散货海运市场前景难料，但相对低 廉的市场价格，对于手握租约或者拥有充 足现金流的买家而言，投资回报率显然较 高。  右图中，可以清楚地看到，今年前五个月 的二手散货船成交数量较前两年同期要 多，但资产总价值同比下降明显。  今年前五月有近 30 艘散货船被中国买家 购得，涉及总金额 1.3 亿美元。  考虑到拆船量大幅增长，新增订单急剧下 降及交付延缓，导致市场供给侧增量大幅 萎缩。 二手散货船成交统计

Lorentzen & Stemoco 统计显示：当资产价格下降时， 万 DWT 散货船更受青睐 4 船舶投资人都买了什么？ L&S Research 交易数量对比

5 Lorentzen & Stemoco 5 什么船型最受青睐？ CNPI 指数显示： 5 月中国新造船指数为 810 点，继续环比下降  从投资金额上看，在 2016 年所有被交易的 散货船中，船东花在 万载重吨上的钱 最多，达到近 3.8 亿美元；其次是花在 12 万 载重吨以上散货船的 3.16 亿美元；而投资者 们对 万载重吨散货船显然不看好，仅 花费 4135 万美元投资于该船型。虽然大型 船舶单体船价高，纯粹以投资金额来论投 资热度可能有失偏颇，但从数据分析及实 际情况来看，对于持币待购的买家，他们 更愿意购买适货性更强的 万载重吨， 同时也是受制于现金压力。 L&S Research 金额分布（ $m ）

6 Lorentzen & Stemoco 6 “ 小鲜肉 ” 也许更受偏爱 10 岁以下船龄占比 53% L&S Research  自 2016 年以来，所有被交易的散 货船中， 5 年以下船龄合计 52 艘， 5 至 10 年船龄合计 48 艘， 43 艘交 易船舶船龄在 年之间， 年船龄的船舶有 40 艘， 20 年以 上船龄船舶仅有 6 艘。相比较来 看， 10 年以下船龄的船舶资产更 受船东青睐。 船龄占比

7 Lorentzen & Stemoco 7 如何投资呢？ 即使船价接近底部，我们可以 “ 任性 ” 吗？ 可以 laid up 吗？ 接船之后... 复苏 之前，现金流如 何维持？

8 Lorentzen & Stemoco 8 航交所 + 数据平台 + 经纪人模式 经纪人 数据平台 航交所 船东 经纪人 提供寻找交易对手方、买 卖、拍卖等前中后端服务  参与交易的各方形成了 一个交易闭环，各自发 挥自身优势，为船东或 船舶投资人提供高效率 的专业化一站式服务。

9 Lorentzen & Stemoco 9 交易所交易型衍生品介绍 -FFA

10 Lorentzen & Stemoco 10 交易所交易型衍生品介绍 - 人民币铁矿石掉期

Lorentzen & Stemoco 11 航交所船舶挂牌交易 船舶求购 船舶出售

Your Vision, Our Opportunity

Oslo (Head office) Lorentzen & Stemoco AS Munkedamsveien 45, 0250 Oslo Norway Tel Athens Lorentzen & Stemoco (Athens) Ltd Leof Karamanli Voula Greece Tel Singapore Lorentzen & Stemoco Singapore 8 Eu Tong Sen street, #21-98 Office 1 The Central Singapore Singapore Tel Shanghai Lorentzen & Stemoco Shanghai Representative Office Room 2701, Shanghai Central Plaza 381 Huai Hai Zhong Road Shanghai China Tel London Lorentzen & Stemoco UK Ltd 5th Floor, Dacre House 19 Dacre Street London SW1H ODJ England Tel Hong Kong Lorentzen & Stemoco (Greater China) Hong Kong Ltd Flat A, 22F Sing Ho Finance Building Gloucester Road Wan Hai Hong Kong Tel For more information on Lorentzen & Stemoco and our global representation visit us at Lorstem.com New York City Lorentzen & Stemoco AS (USA) 8 East 41 st ST, 8th Floor New York, NY Tel Lorentzen & Stemoco 13 Lorentzen & Stemoco 13

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