当前宏观经济金融形势及展望 Recent Economic Development in China 中国人民银行研究局 People’s Bank of China Research Department 张 涛 Zhang Tao
增长的基本特征 Growth dynamics Source: PBOC; NBS
投资驱动 Reliance of GDP on Investment
出口带动 Exports: A Key Driving Force of GDP Growth
价格涨幅走低 Inflation Moderated (YOY) Source: NBS
Production Material Prices 生产资料价格 Production Material Prices Source: NBS
Prices of Key Cement and Steel Products Source: NBS
资产价格 Asset Prices Source: Shanghai Stock Exchange, CEIC Treasury Bonds Index Stock Exchange Composite Index Source: Shanghai Stock Exchange, CEIC
房地产价格上涨幅度趋缓 Real Estate Prices Source: CEIC
利率持续走低 Inter-bank rates stay low Source: CEIC
金融流动性增加 Rising liquidity in the financial system Source: PBOC
Greater Flexibility of RMB Rates 人民币汇率弹性增加 Greater Flexibility of RMB Rates 8.12 -500 2005-7-21 2005-7-28 2005-8-4 2005-8-11 2005-8-18 2005-8-25 2005-9-1 2005-9-8 2005-9-15 2005-9-22 2005-9-29 2005-10-6 2005-10-13 2005-10-20 2005-10-27 2005-11-3 2005-11-10 2005-11-17 2005-11-24 2005-12-1 2005-12-8 2005-12-15 2005-12-22 2005-12-29 2006-1-5 2006-1-12 2006-1-19 2006-1-26 2006-2-2 2006-2-9 2006-2-16 2006-2-23 2006-3-2 2006-3-9 2006-3-16 2006-3-23 2006-3-30 8.1 -1000 人民币对美元即期汇率 -1500 RMB/USD SPOT RATE 8.08 -2000 一年期人民币NDF -2500 8.06 -3000 1yr RMB NDF 8.04 -3500 -4000 8.02 -4500 Source: PBOC, Reuters -5000 8
不再紧盯美元 Stop of a de facto US $ peg 制度变革更重要 A Change of More Regime than Level 不再紧盯美元 Stop of a de facto US $ peg 参考一篮子货币 A basket-currency-based, but not pegged 市场供求为基础和管理浮动 More market-based, managed floating 外汇市场更具弹性 Supported by FX market with greater flexibility
国内生产总值增长9+% GDP growth 9+ % 居民消费价格指数总水平上涨2%, CPI 2% 2006 Outlook 国内生产总值增长9+% GDP growth 9+ % 居民消费价格指数总水平上涨2%, CPI 2% 货币政策目标Monetary target: M2, 16%; M1,14%;人民币信贷2.5万亿元RMB lending 2.5 trillion Yuan 宏观调控面临挑战Macroeconomic challenges
“走出去”战略是对外开放的重要内容 “Open-door” and “Go-overseas” 支持企业“走出去” resource mobilization in two markets (domestic and overseas) 支持参与国际竞争Enhancement of international competition 积极参国际合作（ABF2）Strengthening international cooperation 批准泛亚基金作为第一个境外投资机构进入中国银行间债市科Pan-Asia Fund became the first QFII acquired market entry in the inter-bank market