Insert your presentation title here 29 October 2004 中荷奶业研讨会 Sino-Dutch Dairy Seminar 全球形势下的中国乳业发展 China Dairy Industry Developments in a Global Context 40 minutes all up (30 minutes/10 Q&A) The early stages of 2011 have seen the second boom in international dairy prices in just 4 years and a further opening for the US industry to expand its global market footprint. Tim Hunt assesses the drivers of the current market upswing, whether it will prove more sustainable than the 2007/08 boom, and what it means for the nature of the opportunity for the US in offshore markets Tim Hunt 全球乳业研究战略家 荷兰合作银行食品及农业研究咨询部 2012年6月15日 Rabobank

荷兰合作银行食品及农业研究咨询部 Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory Insert your presentation title here 29 October 2004 荷兰合作银行食品及农业研究咨询部 Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory 一个遍及全球的分析师团队，为银行的业务发展提供行业知识 A global team of analysts – supporting knowledge based banking 全球有超过80名分析师 Team of 80+ analysts 专业的团队覆盖食品及农业领域 Specialist teams 乳业 Dairy 谷物油籽 Grains & oilseeds 动物蛋白 Animal protein 零售 Retail 饮料 Beverages 农资 Ag inputs 糖类 Sugar Christchurch 墨西哥城 Mexico City 纽约 New York 圣保罗 Sao Paulo 孟买 Mumbai 墨尔本 Melbourne 乌特勒支 Utrecht 上海 Shanghai 布宜诺斯艾利斯 Buenos Aires 伦敦 London 弗雷斯诺 Fresno 芝加哥 Chicago 北京 Beijing 圣路易斯 St Loius 新德里 New Dehli 香港 Hong Kong 坦桑尼亚 Tanzania 新加坡 Singapore 圣地亚哥 Santiago 悉尼 Sydney Rabobank

Insert your presentation title here 29 October 2004 过去数年中国乳业依然显示出强劲的发展势头 China’s dairy market has shown extraordinary growth in recent years 2000-2011年中国液态奶市场趋势 China “Drinking” Dairy Market Growth 2000 - 2011 00-05 年复合增长率 00 – 05 CAGR 06-11 年复合增长率 06 – 11 CAGR 十亿升 9% 7% 其他 -0.5% -9% 成人奶粉 13% 13% 婴幼儿奶粉 20% 9% Chinese herbal medication history: more exposed to functionality Nutri-Express from Wahaha The best-seller of LAD in China TCCC SPM WPC 80 酸奶 37% 18% 乳酸饮料 25% 10% 风味奶 29% 3% 纯牛奶 数据来源：欧睿咨询，荷兰合作银行 Rabobank

Insert your presentation title here 29 October 2004 中国乳品市场腾飞的同时，西方国家乳品消费增长不断放缓 China’s dairy story is taking place against a background of slowing sales growth in the West 美国奶酪历史消费增长率 复合增长率 Note that MG farmers last week received a price increase!!!! Several key supply regions milk prices now 20%+above levels suggested by spot commodity returns Nor do they have good foresight on this at this stage Note: Feb 2012 Big 7 milk production is not adjusted for Leap year, 2.1% if it was*. 数据来源：美国农业部，荷兰合作银行 人均消费量 消费总量 Rabobank

Insert your presentation title here 29 October 2004 由于西方国家增长放缓，中国便成了世界乳业增长的引擎 As the West slows, China has become an engine of growth for global dairy 分地区的乳制品市场大小及预测增长 容量=和液态牛奶等量的消费量 浅蓝色 = 经合组织成员国 浅绿色 = 非经合组织成员国 印度 2010-2015年绝对增长量 （十亿升） Note that MG farmers last week received a price increase!!!! Several key supply regions milk prices now 20%+above levels suggested by spot commodity returns Nor do they have good foresight on this at this stage Note: Feb 2012 Big 7 milk production is not adjusted for Leap year, 2.1% if it was*. 俄罗斯及独联体国家 南美 北美自由贸易区 中国 其他非洲国家 欧盟27国 韩国/日本 中东地区 东南亚地区 中美洲 大洋洲 北非地区 其他欧洲国家 2010-2015年年复合增长率 数据来源：荷兰合作银行 Rabobank

Insert your presentation title here 29 October 2004 但中国通过增加国内原奶供应满足其增长需求变得十分困难 Expanding local milk production fast enough has proved difficult 在任何一个国家要保持快速的原奶供应增长本身就很困难 Sustaining rapid production growth is difficult in any country 三聚氰胺事件后，中国变得越加注重牧场建设 Post melamine, China is also switching farming models at the same time 中国照搬了欧美的牧场模式，对牧场进行调整使其适应中国状况仍需时日 Honing the free stall barn model to a Chinese context is taking time 建设现代牧场所需的专家和其他配套设施也在摸索中发展 And the expertise and support infrastructure required to do this are still developing Note that MG farmers last week received a price increase!!!! Several key supply regions milk prices now 20%+above levels suggested by spot commodity returns Nor do they have good foresight on this at this stage Note: Feb 2012 Big 7 milk production is not adjusted for Leap year, 2.1% if it was*. Rabobank

而且，中国原奶价格已经爬升到历史高位 China has become an expensive place to source milk Insert your presentation title here 29 October 2004 而且，中国原奶价格已经爬升到历史高位 China has become an expensive place to source milk 各国原奶牧场价格（按美元换算） 中国 欧盟 新西兰(恒天然) 巴西(圣保罗) 美国 澳大利亚 阿根廷 乌拉圭 美元/升 Note that MG farmers last week received a price increase!!!! Several key supply regions milk prices now 20%+above levels suggested by spot commodity returns Nor do they have good foresight on this at this stage Note: Feb 2012 Big 7 milk production is not adjusted for Leap year, 2.1% if it was*. 数据来源：荷兰合作银行分析 Rabobank

Insert your presentation title here 29 October 2004 近几年，进口奶源正在快速发展 More imported product has been required to top up local supply in recent years 分供应来源的中国乳制品消费 和牛奶等量的消费量(十亿升) Note that MG farmers last week received a price increase!!!! Several key supply regions milk prices now 20%+above levels suggested by spot commodity returns Nor do they have good foresight on this at this stage Note: Feb 2012 Big 7 milk production is not adjusted for Leap year, 2.1% if it was*. 三聚氰胺事件 国产奶 净进口奶 进口奶份额 数据来源：荷兰合作银行 Rabobank

Insert your presentation title here 29 October 2004 中国在很短的时间内便成为世界最大的乳制品进口国 China has quickly risen to the world’s no.1 importer 2005-2011年世界主要的乳制品进口国 千吨(和牛奶等量) Note that MG farmers last week received a price increase!!!! Several key supply regions milk prices now 20%+above levels suggested by spot commodity returns Nor do they have good foresight on this at this stage Note: Feb 2012 Big 7 milk production is not adjusted for Leap year, 2.1% if it was*. 中国 俄罗斯 墨西哥 阿尔及利亚 日本 委内瑞拉 巴西 数据来源：荷兰奶协， 世界贸易信息服务股份公司，荷兰合作银行； 注释：2011年阿尔及利亚和委内瑞拉数字是在9个月基础上进行的估算 Rabobank

中国的需求在驱动整个国际乳品贸易发展 Driving a global dairy trade boom in the process Insert your presentation title here 29 October 2004 中国的需求在驱动整个国际乳品贸易发展 Driving a global dairy trade boom in the process 2005-2011年第四季度全球乳制品进出口量 和牛奶等量的消费量(千升) Note that MG farmers last week received a price increase!!!! Several key supply regions milk prices now 20%+above levels suggested by spot commodity returns Nor do they have good foresight on this at this stage Note: Feb 2012 Big 7 milk production is not adjusted for Leap year, 2.1% if it was*. 数据来源：荷兰合作银行； 注释：数据包括新西兰，欧盟，美国，澳大利亚，阿根廷和巴西 Rabobank

Insert your presentation title here 29 October 2004 同时，中国乳制品的大量进口也在结构性地提升世界乳品的价格 And contributing to a structural increase in world dairy prices 全脂奶粉价格走势 全脂奶粉 预估最低价 预估最高价 美元/吨 Note that MG farmers last week received a price increase!!!! Several key supply regions milk prices now 20%+above levels suggested by spot commodity returns Nor do they have good foresight on this at this stage Note: Feb 2012 Big 7 milk production is not adjusted for Leap year, 2.1% if it was*. 数据来源：荷兰合作银行 Rabobank

Insert your presentation title here 29 October 2004 未来几年，中国不得不思考如何加强原奶的自给自足 In coming years, China will have to supply most of its own additional milk requirements 中国乳制品进口量已经占据全球差不多的70%份额 The Chinese market is already around 70% of the size of total international dairy trade 而最主要的出口国在供应增长方面会有极大限制 There are significant supply constraints on growth in most dairy export regions 其他奶源短缺的市场也会进一步增强需求 And other deficit regions are also expected to grow Note that MG farmers last week received a price increase!!!! Several key supply regions milk prices now 20%+above levels suggested by spot commodity returns Nor do they have good foresight on this at this stage Note: Feb 2012 Big 7 milk production is not adjusted for Leap year, 2.1% if it was*. Rabobank

Insert your presentation title here 29 October 2004 中国的增长不止在奶粉方面，在其他方面也为海外供应商创造了机会 China’s growth is creating a range of opportunities for players abroad: beyond just milk powders 仪器/设备 Equipment Alfalfa hay and corn 苜蓿，干草和玉米 Note that MG farmers last week received a price increase!!!! Several key supply regions milk prices now 20%+above levels suggested by spot commodity returns Nor do they have good foresight on this at this stage Note: Feb 2012 Big 7 milk production is not adjusted for Leap year, 2.1% if it was*. 全脂奶粉/配方奶粉 WMP/IMF Heifers 乳牛 Rabobank

但中国的需求在其他市场上也引起了很多麻烦 And some related headaches Insert your presentation title here 29 October 2004 但中国的需求在其他市场上也引起了很多麻烦 And some related headaches 在美国苜蓿价格达到历史高位 Record prices for alfalfa hay 引起新西兰婴幼儿奶粉产品短缺 Retail shortages of Infant Milk Powder Note that MG farmers last week received a price increase!!!! Several key supply regions milk prices now 20%+above levels suggested by spot commodity returns Nor do they have good foresight on this at this stage Note: Feb 2012 Big 7 milk production is not adjusted for Leap year, 2.1% if it was*. 来自非洲和东南亚的一些买家被排挤出去 Some buyers squeezed out 推高了澳大利亚乳牛价格 High costs of heifers Rabobank

Insert your presentation title here 29 October 2004 本地市场的蓬勃发展也造就了来自中国的世界乳业的巨头 Chinese growth is creating dairy champions of global scale Rank 2011 Rank 2010 Company Country HQ 2011 Dairy Sales (USD bil) 1 Nestlé Switzerland 25.9 2 Danone France 19.5 3 4 Lactalis 18.7 Fonterra New Zealand 15.7 5 FrieslandCampina Netherlands 13.4 6 7 Dairy Farmers of America USA 13.0 Dean Foods 11.7 8 Arla Foods Denmark/Sweden 10.3 9 Kraft Foods 7.7 10 12 Meiji Japan 7.4 11 Unilever1 Netherlands/UK 7.2 Saputo Canada 6.9 13 DMK Germany 6.3 14 Sodiaal1 6.1 15 19 Yili China 5.8 16 18 Mengniu 17 Bongrain 5.5 21+ Müller1 4.6 Land O'Lakes 4.3 20 Schreiber Foods1 4.5 数据来源：公司年报，荷兰合作银行根据公开信息进行预估 注释: (1) 荷兰合作银行预估 Rabobank

中国乳企开始关注海外市场 Chinese companies are also starting to look offshore Insert your presentation title here 29 October 2004 中国乳企开始关注海外市场 Chinese companies are also starting to look offshore Supply security Bright/Synlait Ausnutria/Hypocra Brands and expansion Mengniu and Bright bid on Yoplait Rabobank

Insert your presentation title here 29 October 2004 而与此同时，国外公司也大举投资中国乳业 While foreign companies are investing heavily in China 全球乳企20强中有18个总部 在成熟市场 18 of the top 20 headquartered in maturing markets 有12家现在在中国市场 投资 12 of these now have investments in China c . Rabobank

Insert your presentation title here 29 October 2004 总结 中国市场的增长正重塑国际乳业市场 Chinese growth is transforming the global dairy market 无论是中国乳企，还是外国乳企都有必要转变战略 And necessitating changing strategies for both Chinese companies and foreign companies alike 荷兰合作银行预计中国将成为未来5年世界乳业增长的强大引擎 Rabobank expects China to be an engine for global dairy growth over the next 5 years 满足中国市场增长的需求需要本地乳企和国外乳企的共同参与 Managing this growth will require support from local players and outside participants alike   Note that MG farmers last week received a price increase!!!! Several key supply regions milk prices now 20%+above levels suggested by spot commodity returns Nor do they have good foresight on this at this stage Note: Feb 2012 Big 7 milk production is not adjusted for Leap year, 2.1% if it was*. Rabobank

Insert your presentation title here 29 October 2004 联系方式 Tim Hunt 全球乳业研究战略家 荷兰合作银行食品及农业研究咨询部 Tim.Hunt@Rabobank.com “The financial link in the global food chain”™ Rabobank

Insert your presentation title here Section 1 29 October 2004 Section 1 … Section 2 … Section 3 … Section 3 … Rabobank