区域气候变化情景的得到和使用 Generation and Application of Regional Climate Scenario 中英瑞气候变化适应项目 Adapting to Climate Change in China: China-UK-Swiss Partnership 区域气候变化情景的得到和使用 Generation and Application of Regional Climate Scenario 国家气候中心 高学杰 GAO Xuejie, National Climate Center, CMA 影响与风险评估专家研讨会，2010年3月3日，北京 Workshop of Climate Change Impact and Risk Assessments, 3 March, 2010, Beijing

提纲/Outline 1. ACC-科学部分简介 Brief introduction of ACCC- Climate Science 2. 区域气候的预估方法 Generating regional climate scenario 3. 现有数据及预估中的不确定性 Data existed and uncertainties 4. 数据分发及与用户的交流 Data distribution and communication with users

Brief introduction of ACCC- Climate Science 1.1 合作单位 / Collaborating Institutions － 国家气候中心/中国气象局 (NCC/CMA) National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration － 中国农业科学院 (CAAS) Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences － 中国科学院大气物理研究所 (IAP) Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences －英国气象局哈德雷中心 The Met Office Hadley Centre, UK －英国气候影响计划 The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP)

1.2 目标和产出/Objectives and Output 本项目的工作计划和最终递交的结果分为三个方面的产出： The objectives and deliverables are grouped into three outputs: √ 中国区域气候变化情景的预估 Production of climate scenarios for China 这是项目科学部分的核心，将提供用于国家级和省级影响评估使用的、包括有不确定性分析的气候情景。 This is the core of the science component and delivers climate scenarios with uncertainty analysis to be used within the national and provincial level impact and risk assessments. √ 中国区域的气候变化科学 The science of climate change over China 包括若干与中国气候变化相关的科学问题，以支持所得到的气候情景，并加深对关键区气候变化的认识。 In support of the scenarios, this output considers a number of key questions relating to climate change over China and will deliver improved understanding in these critical areas. √ 气候变化科学的传播 Communicating climate science 这一部分对于项目来说非常重要。此外需要强调的是，科学部分得到的结果，不会等在科学部分完成后再给出，自项目启动的时候，就将开始与终端用户和其他利益相关者进行互动。 This is crucial to the project and it is important to emphasize that this is not something that happens at the end of the science work but is an ongoing interaction with end users and other stakeholders from the beginning of the project.

Workplan in the next 6 months: 1.3 未来6个月的工作任务： Workplan in the next 6 months: 1) 现有气候情景的分发 Distribution of the existed climate scenarios 2) 对IPCC AR4全球模式模拟的评估，启动对AR5全球模式的评估 Assessment of the IPCC AR4 and the upcoming AR5 models 3) ERA-Interim再分析资料驱动下，区域模式对1979-2009年的模拟及分析 Simulation of the RCMs driven by ERA-interim for 1979-2009, and analysis 4) 在HadCM3-QUMP全球模式结果的驱动下，完成3组区域模式1950-2050年，1组 1950-2100年的当代及未来气候变化模拟，开始进行结果的分析（包括气候平均 态和极端事件）、处理及情景分发 Under the driving by HadCM3-QUMP, 3 groups simulations for the period 1950-2050 and 1 group for 1950-2100, analysis, and distribution 5) 对UKCIP的访问和交流，项目网站的建设、更新和维护，研讨会 Collaboration with UKCIP, Setting up, updating and maintaining the website, workshops

2. 区域气候的预估方法 Generating regional climate change scenario √ 全球气候模式在区域水平的预估 Analysis of AOGCMs’ simulations in regional levels 全球模式是气候变化预估的基础工具。但由于计算条件的限制，一般分辨率较低(IPCC AR4: 125~400km)，在此尺度下气候情景的获得，需要使用降尺度方法。 AOGCMs are the primary tool used for climate change projections. Due to the limitation of computer resources, they usually have a low resolution. For example, the resolution of the IPCC AR4 models are in the range of 125-400 km. Generating information below the grid scale of AOGCMs is referred to as downscaling. 国家气候中心业务产品之一“中国地区气候变化预估数据集”，包括多全球模式的集合结果，可以在http://ncc.cma.gov.cn/cn/ -业务服务-气候变化预估业务产品获得。 Multi-model results over China have been processed by NCC and the products are available at http://ncc.cma.gov.cn/cn/

√ 降尺度方法：分为动力降尺度和统计降尺度 √ 降尺度方法：分为动力降尺度和统计降尺度 There are two main approaches of downscaling, dynamical and statistical 动力降尺度方法包括高分辨率的全球大气模式和变网格模式，以及区域气候模式 Dynamical downscaling includes high-resolution atmosphere-only GCMs and variable-resolution AGCMs, and nested regional climate models 区域气候模式最早由Giorgi et al. (1990, 1993a,b)发展而来，现在原模式由意大利国际物理中心(ICTP)发展和维护，目前的版本为RegCM3 The first regional climate model was developed by Giorgi et al. (1990, 1993a,b). The current version is RegCM3, maintained in the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) in Italy

中国夏季(6-8月)降水的观测(左)和IPCC AR4多模式集合的模拟(右) (mm) 由于分辨率较低，全球模式对东亚季风降水的模拟能力较差 Traditionally, AOGCMs have shown a poor performance in simulating East Asia monsoon precipitation patterns due to their low resolutions. 中国夏季(6-8月)降水的观测(左)和IPCC AR4多模式集合的模拟(右) (mm) Observed (L) and simulated (R) JJA precipitation by IPCC AR4 multi-models over China (mm) Xu et al., 2010

中国地区未来降水变化会不会出现由“南涝北旱”到“北涝南旱”的转型？ Will the future precipitation change from the present “North drought and South flood” to “North flood and South drought”? IPCC, 2007

观测、全球模式和区域模式对中国汛期5-9月降水的模拟 (mm) The observed and simulation of monsoon precipitation (May-September) by FvGCM and RegCM3 全球和区域模式模拟的本世纪末汛期降水变化 (%) Projection by FvGCM and RegCM3 in the end of the century (2071-2100) (%) Gao et al., 2008

Data existed and uncertainties 3. 现有数据及预估中的不确定性 Data existed and uncertainties √RegCM3 (NCC/CMA): FvGCM-RegCM, 20km, 1961-1990, 2071-2100, A2 MIROC-RegCM, 25km, 1951-2100, A1B √PRECIS (CAAS): HadAM3P-PRECIS, 50km, 1961-1990, 2071-2100, A2, B2, et al. 两者使用的全球模式驱动场、模式范围、分辨率、温室气体排放情景等不同 The downscaling are different in the driving fields from the GCMs, model domains, model resolutions, emission scenarios, et al. 项目中两个模式将在相同条件下运行，以了解区域气候变化预估中的不确定性 The 2 RCMs will run at the same configuration to address the uncertainties of climate change over China

RegCM3两次模拟得到的本世纪末气候变化情景(2071-2100) Comparison of climate scenario by 2 RegCM3 simulations in the end of the 21st century FvGCM-RegCM3 COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment MIROC-RegCM3 汛期5-9月降水的变化 / Change of monsoon precipitation (April to September)

两个区域模式本世纪末降水模拟的预估比较 Comparison of two RCM projections - precipitation change in the end of the 21st century DJF DJF JJA JJA FvGCM-RegCM3 PRECIS

Data distribution and communication with users 4. 数据分发及与用户的交流 Data distribution and communication with users 与UKCIP合作进行，本月底将进行对UKCIP的访问 This will work together with UKCIP, and there will be a visit in the end of the month 与中国天气网(http://ww.weather.com.cn,中国气象局公共气象服务中心)合作，进行了科学部分网站建设问题的多次讨论。网站中除包括新闻、消息及相关科学知识的介绍外，可直接在网站显示中国区域的气候变化情景和调取影响评估研究所需的数据(?) Setup and maintenance of the website of the ACCC-science part will be work together with http://ww.weather.com.cn (the Public Weather Service Center of CMA). Several discussions have been held between the two sides. Besides the knowledge sharing and news et al. of the project, the climate scenarios will be displayed (figure) and distributed (data) through the web-site in a user-friendly way (?). 或根据用户需求进行数据定制、研讨班 Data processing as requested by users, workshops

Communication with impact users – experiences with ecologists 与影响评估研究的交流－生态学 Communication with impact users – experiences with ecologists 使用“数学降尺度”方法，获得更高分辨率的气候情景 To get ultra-high climate scenario by applying “mathematical downscaling” to model results 1月份1*1km分辨率气温的个例 Case of 1*1km resolution temperature in January 左: DEM给出的地形分布(m) Left: topography from DEM 下左为25km分辨率区域模式模拟 Lower left: simulation by 25km RCM 下右为经过降尺度处理得到结果 Lower right: 1*1km results

Temperature in January in Xinjiang 新疆及周边地区1月份气温 Temperature in January in Xinjiang 25km分辨率区域模式模拟(左)和经过降尺度处理到1*1km的结果(右) Simulation by 25km RCM (left) and the “downscaled” 1*1km results (right)

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