飛彈與大規模毀滅性武器 演變中的世界 計畫的爭論 計畫現況 檢討與反思 第十四週 當代議題（3）不對稱衝突與飛彈防禦 Current Issue III: Asymmetry Conflicts and Missile Defense 飛彈與大規模毀滅性武器 演變中的世界 計畫的爭論 計畫現況 檢討與反思

「飛彈」防禦 Missile Defense 彈道飛彈 巡弋飛彈 Cruise Missile Ballistic Missile http://images.gizmag.com/hero/10038_19090851256.jpg 彈道飛彈 Ballistic Missile 巡弋飛彈 Cruise Missile http://www.spacewar.com/images/sdb-1-weapon-system-bridge-bomb-explosion-bg.jpg

大規模毀滅性武器 Weapon of Massive Destruction 核子Nuclear 生物Biological 化學 Chemical http://www.britannica.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/thermo-blast.jpg

…化學武器 …生物武器 http://www.codoh.com/graphics4/germansoldierdog.jpg http://www.eadt.co.uk/s24/assets/images/dynamicFeed/heathm20090526171201.jpg http://www.lachlanhunter.deadsetfreestuff.com/JB/gas_aeroplane.jpg

從對稱到不對稱 Asymmetric Conditions 需要防禦 以小博大要用「暗器」… 生物、化學武器…窮人的原子彈 窮人也開始發展核子飛彈 http://www.britannica.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/thermo-blast.jpg

飛彈防禦的淵源：冷戰 反彈道飛彈條約1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_FfkgwPNm3uA/S_V0H4TJOnI/AAAAAAAAGos/kWdcc22kccg/s1600/5.jpg 反彈道飛彈條約1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty

戰略防衛先機 1983 Strategic Defense Initiative http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Official_Portrait_of_President_Reagan_1981.jpg

戰略防衛先機 1983 Strategic Defense Initiative Kinetic Energy Interceptors Electromagnetic Rail Gun Laser Weapon Particle Beam Weapon X-Ray Weapon

對飛彈處在幾乎全無防禦的狀態… 冷戰結束：飛彈技術擴散…

對飛彈處在幾乎全無防禦的狀態… 冷戰結束：飛彈技術擴散… Tanks, David R. (2000), National Missile Defense: Policy Issues and Technological Capabilities. Cambridge: Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis. 冷戰結束：飛彈技術擴散…

SDI之後：Brilliant Pebbles

北韓飛彈試射 North Korea Missile Test, 1998 Taepodong-1 Taepodong-2

國家飛彈防禦系統 National Missile Defense http://image.absoluteastronomy.com/images/topicimages/g/gr/ground-based_midcourse_defense.gif http://missiledefense.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/gbi.jpg

攔截「意外」發射的飛彈 攔截來自「流氓國家」的飛彈 流氓國家非理性，無法「嚇阻」 核子恐怖主義，恐怖分子也無法嚇阻 不對稱：只計畫攔截數枚到數十枚彈頭… An Ability to Intercept Tens of Warhead 為何冷戰後需要飛彈防禦？ 攔截「意外」發射的飛彈 攔截來自「流氓國家」的飛彈 流氓國家非理性，無法「嚇阻」 核子恐怖主義，恐怖分子也無法嚇阻

http://freespeech.vo.llnwd.net/o25/pub/images/russian-missile.jpg 意外發射的飛彈…

「不理性」的「流氓國家」…

「恐怖份子」… http://politicalgraffiti.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/iran_n-korea_nuclear.jpg

爭議 Debates 自己都不相信嚇阻? 飛彈以外的攻擊方式? 引發新軍備競賽?

我們也是講理的人… We are reasonable, too… …有備無患

何必用飛彈？ Why Missiles Only? …有備無患

好不容易才裁減下來…. http://media.stratfor.com/mmf/4/b/4b503fbaf595eadc43f93d67318b332317f92788.jpg http://www.nucleardarkness.org/include/nucleardarkness/images/en/graph/global_nuclear_arsenal_comparaison_full.jpg

一直發展飛彈防禦 別擔心! 武器裁減條約 裁了也還有 教我怎麼簽呀… 1,500枚彈頭 少來了! 反正你遲早會 增加彈頭嘛… 俺才不過幾十枚彈頭 有了飛彈防禦 不是要俺的命嗎？ http://i.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/01611/OBAMA5_1611971c.jpg

飛彈防禦要繼續推動 我們無意傷害俄中兩國 兩國都是我們的重要伙伴 詳見我手下的兩份報告 US Withdrawal from the ABM Treaty 2001,12,13 飛彈防禦要繼續推動 我們無意傷害俄中兩國 兩國都是我們的重要伙伴 詳見我手下的兩份報告 http://dimpost.files.wordpress.com/2008/08/barack_obama.jpg The circumstances affecting U.S. national security have changed fundamentally since the signing of the ABM Treaty in 1972. The attacks against the U.S. homeland on September 11 vividly demonstrate that the threats we face today are far different from those of the Cold War.

「戰略核武」之外：越洋遠征… Logistic Burden… http://gdb.rferl.org/B1C5C62C-0F25-47BC-9CFD-D29A68B6CCB6_mw800_mh600_s.jpg http://www.hood.army.mil/history/1990/images/DS14-soldiers_deploying-airfield.jpg http://www.olive-drab.com/images/carc_painting_gulf_war_2.jpg http://www.navy.mil/navydata/policy/vision/vis98/pg25-1.gif http://cache4.asset-cache.net/xc/1858299.jpg?v=1&c=IWSAsset&k=2&d=77BFBA49EF878921F7C3FC3F69D929FD8E2E39721955BDE7C222D924B6EBC0F8CC7EC300CC2A56A0E30A760B0D811297

戰區飛彈防禦系統 Theater Missile Defense 戰區高高度區域防禦 Theatre High Altitude Area Defense 愛國者三型 Patriot Advanced Capability 3 標準三型 Standard Missile 3 http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/files/2007/scud.jpg

Characteristics of Ballistic Missile 飛彈防禦通論：彈道飛彈的特徵 Characteristics of Ballistic Missile http://sushantskoltey.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/ballistic-missile-trajectory.jpg http://www.spacearchive.info/2005-09-14-lockett-minuteman.jpg

大氣層：~100km

何時攔截?? 穿透輔助物/Penetration Aid 推升後階段 Post Boost Phase 理想時機 但 時間很短 最差時機 但 時間最長 理想時機但 時間很短 http://images.huffingtonpost.com/2009-07-10-mock_warhead.jpg 穿透輔助物/Penetration Aid http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/nsa/NC/mirv/mirv.gif

實戰 實驗性 實戰

Boost Phase Interception 推升階段攔截 Boost Phase Interception http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/program/Abl747b.jpg Air Borne Laser, ABL Kinetic Energy Interceptor, KEI

Boost Phase Interception 推升階段攔截 Boost Phase Interception UAV-Based Boost Phase Intercept http://img181.imageshack.us/i/784pxx45aundersidewithwpr6.jpg/ Space-Based Laser, SBL

陸基中途階段攔截 Ground Based Midcourse Defense National Missile Defense 一邊測試 一邊部署 http://image.absoluteastronomy.com/images/topicimages/g/gr/ground-based_midcourse_defense.gif Multiple Kill Vehicle, MKV http://missiledefense.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/gbi.jpg >140km http://regmedia.co.uk/2009/08/25/gates_gbi_silo.jpg

神盾系統 Aegis 海基中途階段攔截 Ground Based Midcourse Defense 標準三型 Standard Missile 3 http://www.nearfield.com/amta/images/Amta97_6-thm-12.GIF >70km http://cache3.asset-cache.net/xc/52240612.jpg?v=1&c=IWSAsset&k=2&d=77BFBA49EF878921F7C3FC3F69D929FD911388149C53A91B4F068D06906961BED18389CE828F0C4AF06BF04B24B4128C http://www.sew-lexicon.com/missile%20phases.JPG

Terminal Phase Interception Theater Missile Defense 終端階段攔截 Terminal Phase Interception Theater Missile Defense 戰區高高度區域防禦 Theatre High Altitude Area Defense 愛國者三型 Patriot Advanced Capability 3 標準三型 Standard Missile 3 ~40km 40~140km

可攔截對象不同… Short-Range Ballistic Missile Range: less than 1000 km SM3 Short-Range Ballistic Missile Range: less than 1000 km Medium-Range Ballistic Missile Range: between 1000 and 3000 km Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile Range: between 3000 and 6400 km Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile Range: greater than 6400 km Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile Range: all PAC3 THAAD PAC3 THAAD PAC3

大氣層：標準三型高度下限 http://www.payvand.com/news/10/feb/Ballistic-missile-defense.jpg

搬上岸也可以… aegis ashore… KEI http://www.japanfocus.org/data/SM-3%20missile%20launch.jpg KEI http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/systems/images/sm-3-h1.gif

標準三型潛力無窮：下降階段 SM3 Capabilities

標準三型潛力無窮：上升階段 SM3 Capabilities

2011 2007---2017 European Phased Adaptive Approach, 2009 SM3 http://image.absoluteastronomy.com/images/topicimages/g/gr/ground-based_midcourse_defense.gif SM3 http://regmedia.co.uk/2009/08/25/gates_gbi_silo.jpg 2007---2017 http://missiledefense.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/gbi.jpg

Missile Defense takes the Lead! http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2008/07/10/iran20d.jpg 飛彈防禦大幅領先… Missile Defense takes the Lead! http://admagnusson.files.wordpress.com/2009/04/y167474645137445.jpg http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/iranmissiles.jpg

腐蝕 游擊戰 Guerrilla 叛亂 Insurgency 恐怖主義 Terrorism 犯罪活動 Crime 長時間的大量小規模活動 當代的主要衝突形式 游擊戰 Guerrilla 叛亂 Insurgency 恐怖主義 Terrorism 犯罪活動 Crime http://www.ninjamarketing.it/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/guerrilla_gardening.jpg 42