Corporate Finance Ross  Westerfield  Jaffe 8th Edition 2 Chapter Two 财务报表分析 Corporate Finance Ross  Westerfield  Jaffe 8th Edition

本章要点 掌握三张财务报表的内容 掌握财务报表的比率分析 掌握杜邦分析法 理解长期财务计划 理解外部融资与企业增长

本章概览 2.1 资产负债表 2.2 利润表 2.3 现金流量表 2.4 财务比率分析 2.5 杜邦分析法 2.6 外部融资与增长

财务报表信息来源 深圳证券交易所http://www.szse.cn/ 上海证券交易所http://www.sse.com.cn/sseportal/ps/zhs/home.html 中国上市公司资讯网http://www.cnlist.com/ 江西财大图书馆国泰安数据库http://lib.jxufe.edu.cn/resouse/database.html

财务报表信息来源 国泰安数据库的使用：以资产负债表为例 江西财大图书馆主页 全部数据库 江西财大图书馆主页 全部数据库 国泰安研究服务中心 入口：电信 数据服务 CSMAR中国上市公司财务报表数据库 资产负债表 ※ 不用选设置字段条件 ※ 选择复合字段名称 ※ 选择EXCEL格式

Assets ≡ Liabilities + Stockholder’s Equity 2.1 资产负债表 特定日期企业会计价值的“快照” 资产负债表恒等式: 资产≡ 负债 + 所有者权益 Assets ≡ Liabilities + Stockholder’s Equity Note that Slides 4 and 7 from Chapter 1 could be reused here to emphasize the general structure of the balance sheet. The left-hand side of the balance sheet lists the assets of the firm. Current assets are listed first because they are the most liquid. Fixed assets can include both tangible and intangible assets, and they are listed at the bottom because they generally are not very liquid. These are a direct result of management’s investment decisions. (Please emphasize that “investment decisions” are not limited to investments in financial assets.) Note that the balance sheet does not list some very valuable assets, such as the people who work for the firm. The liabilities and equity (or ownership) components of the firm are listed on the right-hand side. This indicates how the assets are paid for. Since the balance sheet has to balance, total equity = total assets – total liabilities. The portion of equity that can most easily fluctuate to create this balance is retained earnings. The right-hand side of the balance sheet is a direct result of management’s financing decisions. Remember that shareholders’ equity consists of several components, and that total equity includes all of these components not just the “common stock” item. In particular, remind students that retained earnings belong to the shareholders.

货币资金：库存现金+银行存款 应收票据：商业承兑汇票+银行承兑汇票 应收账款要扣除坏账准备；存货要扣除存货跌价准备

长期股权投资要扣除长期股权投资减值准备； 固定资产要扣除累计折旧和减值准备； 在建工程要扣除在建工程减值准备； 无形资产要扣除无形资产减值准备。

资产负债表的特点 左右两方存在恒等关系； 表示某一时点的余额； 以原始成本列示； 各项目按流动性排列； 忽略了一些具有重要经济意义的资产； 忽略了一些具有重要经济意义的负债； 某些会计政策是可以选择的。

资本性支出 在企业的经营活动中，供长期使用的、其经济寿命将经历许多会计期间的资产都要作为资本性支出。即先将其资本化，形成固定资产、无形资产、递延资产等。而后随着他们为企业提供的效益，在各个会计期间转销为费用，如：固定资产的折旧，无形资产、递延资产的摊销等。 ※ 参阅P23

Current Assets – Current Liabilities 净营运资本 净营运资本 ≡ 流动资产 – 流动负债 Net Working Capital ≡ Current Assets – Current Liabilities ※ 参阅P22

2.2 利润表 衡量企业在特定期间的财务绩效 利润的会计定义是: 收入 – 费用 ≡ 利润 Revenue – Expenses ≡ Income

营业外收入主要是指政府补助、处置固定资产与 无形资产利得以及其他；营业外支出主要是指处 置固定资产损失及其他。

利润表中的税

利润表中的税 对税收我们唯一可以确信的是它们总在变化（The one thing we can rely on with taxes is that they are always changing） 边际税率与平均税率（Marginal vs. average tax rates） ※ 参阅P21 Point out that taxes can be a very important component of the decision making process, but that what they learn about tax specifics now could change tomorrow. Consequently, it is important to keep up with the changing tax laws and to utilize specialists in the tax area when making decisions where taxes are involved. www: Click on the web surfer icon to go to the IRS web site for the most up-to-date tax information. It is important to point out that we are concerned with the taxes that we will pay if a decision is made. Consequently, the marginal tax rate is what we should use in our analysis. Point out that the tax rates discussed in the book are just federal taxes. Many states and cities have income taxes as well, and those taxes should figure into any analysis that we conduct.

2.3 现金流量表 从金融的角度看，财务报表中最重要的项目就是企业的实际现金流量，因为企业的价值就在于其创造现金流量的能力。 因为企业资产的价值一定等于负债的价值与权益的价值之和，那么资产的现金流CF(A)一定会等于流向债权人的现金流CF(B)与流向权益投资人的现金流CF(S)之和。 ※参阅P22 CF(A)≡ CF(B) + CF(S) Remind students that this relation is just an application of the standard balance sheet identity.

2.3 现金流量表 现金流量表由三个部分组成： 经营活动产生的现金流量 Cash flow from operating activities 投资活动产生的现金流量 Cash flow from investing activities 筹资活动产生的现金流量 Cash flow from financing activities It is extremely important to remind students that accounting cash flow and actual cash flow as calculated earlier are different values.

现金流量表

课堂提问 市场价值与账面价值有何区别? 我们应该采用哪一个作为决策依据? 会计收入与现金流有何区别?我们应该采用哪一个作为决策依据? 平均税率与边际税率有何区别?我们应该采用哪一个作为决策依据?

财务报表分析 财务报表的使用者 公司管理层 公司股东及潜在投资者 公司债权人 分析师 其他：如供应商、政府、雇员、中介机构等。

财务报表分析 财务报表分析的目的 评价过去的经营业绩 衡量现在的财务状况 预测未来的发展趋势

财务报表分析 财务报表分析的方法方法 趋势分析法 比率分析法 因素分析法

趋势分析法 应注意的问题 用于进行对比的各个时期的指标, 在计算口径上必须一致； 剔除偶发性项目的影响, 使作为分析的数据能反映正常的经营状况； 应用例外原则, 应对某项有显著变动的指标作重点分析, 研究其产生的原因, 以便采取对策, 趋利避害。

因素分析法 因素分析法也称因素替换法、连环替代法，它是用来确定几个相互联系的因素对分析对象一一综合财务指标或经济指标的影响程度的一种分析方法。 因素分析应注意的四个问题： （1）因素分解的关联性； （2）因素替代的顺序性； （3）顺序替代的连环性； （4）计算结果的假定性。

因素分析法 例如：某企业2009年3月某种原材料费用的实际数4 620元，而其计划数是4 000元。实际比计划增加620元。由于原材料费用是由产品产量、单位产品材料消耗用量和材料单价三个因素的乘积构成的， 因此，就可以把材料费用这一总指标分解为三个因素，然后逐个来分析它们对材料费用总额的影响程序。

因素分析法 项目 单位 计划数 实际数 产品产量 件 100 110 单位产品材料消耗量 公斤 8 7 材料单价 元 5 6 材料费用总额 4 000 4 620

因素分析法 计划指标：100 × 8 × 5 ＝ 4 000 （元） ① 第一次替代: 110 × 8 × 5 ＝ 4 400（元） ② 计划指标：100 × 8 × 5 ＝ 4 000 （元） ① 第一次替代: 110 × 8 × 5 ＝ 4 400（元） ② 第二次替代: 110 × 7 × 5 ＝ 3 850（元） ③ 第三次替代: 110 × 7 × 6 ＝ 4 620（元） ④(实际指标 ) ②－① ＝ 4 400－4 000 ＝ 400（元） 产量增加的影响 ③－② ＝ 3 850－4 400＝ －550（元）材料节约的影响 ④－③ ＝ 4 620－3 850＝ 7700（元） 价格提高的影响 400－550＋770 ＝ 620（元） 全部因素的影响

2.4 财务比率分析 财务比率分析有利于跨期比较分析或在不同公司之间进行比较分析。 在考察每个比率指标时，我们应该问自己： 它是如何计算的? 2.4 财务比率分析 财务比率分析有利于跨期比较分析或在不同公司之间进行比较分析。 在考察每个比率指标时，我们应该问自己： 它是如何计算的? 用它来度量什么?为什么要用它？ 度量单位是什么? 比率指标值的意义何在? 我们怎么进一步改进它?

财务比率分析应注意的问题 对比项目的相关性 对比口径的一致性 衡量标准的科学性 预定目标； 历史标准； 行业标准； 公认标准。

财务比率的分类 短期偿债能力或流动性指标 长期偿债能力或财务杠杆指标 资产管理或周转率指标 盈利能力指标 市值指标 The ratios in the following slides will be computed using the 2007 information from the Balance Sheet (Table 3.1) and Income Statement (Table 3.3) given in the text.

短期偿债能力或流动性指标计算 The firm is able to cover current liabilities with it’s current assets by a factor of 1.3 to 1. The ratio should be compared to the industry – it’s possible that this industry has a substantial amount of cash flow and that they can meet their current liabilities out of cash flow instead of relying solely on the liquidation of current assets that are on the books. The quick ratio is quite a bit lower than the current ratio, so inventory seems to be an important component of current assets. This company carries a low cash balance. This may be an indication that they are aggressively investing in assets that will provide higher returns. We need to make sure that we have enough cash to meet our obligations, but too much cash reduces the return earned by the company.

短期偿债能力或流动性指标应用 同一公司跨期比较 同行业比较 与经验值比较 关注流动资产的结构及其现金含量 关注影响流动性的其他因素如授信额度、准备很快变现的长期资产等。 ※ 企业不是靠利润而是靠现金流量生存

长期偿债能力或财务杠杆指标计算 Note that these are often called solvency ratios. TE = total equity, and TA = total assets. The numerator in the total debt ratio could also be found by adding all of the current and long-term liabilities. The firm finances approximately 28% of its assets with debt. Another way to compute the D/E ratio if you already have the total debt ratio: D/E = Total debt ratio / (1 – total debt ratio) = .28 / .72 = .39 Note the rounding error as compared to the direct method applied in the slide. The EM is one of the ratios that is used in the DuPont Identity as a measure of the firm’s financial leverage.

长期偿债能力或财务杠杆指标计算 Remember that depreciation is a non-cash deduction. A better indication of a firm’s ability to meet interest payments may be to add back the depreciation to get an estimate of cash flow before taxes.

长期偿债能力或财务杠杆指标应用 同一公司跨期比较 同行业比较 与经验值比较 关注债务的收益与风险之间的关系 关注影响长期偿债能力的其他因素如或有负债、重大投资项目、资产变现能力以及企业信誉等。

资产管理或周转率指标计算 Inventory turnover can be computed using either ending inventory or average inventory when you have both beginning and ending figures. It is important to be consistent with whatever benchmark you are using to analyze the company’s strengths or weaknesses. It is also important to consider seasonality in sales. If the balance sheet is prepared at a time when there is a large inventory build-up to meet seasonal demand, then the inventory turnover will be understated and you might believe that the company is not performing as well as it is. On the other hand, if the balance sheet is prepared when inventory has been drawn down due to seasonal sales, then the inventory turnover would be overstated and the company may appear to be doing better than it really is. Averages using annual data may not fix this problem. If a company has seasonal sales, you may want to look at quarterly averages to get a better indication of turnover.

资产管理或周转率指标计算 Technically, the sales figure should be credit sales. This is often difficult to determine from the income statements provided in annual reports. If you use total sales instead of credit sales, you will overstate your turnover level. You need to recognize this bias when credit sales are unavailable, particularly if a large portion of the sales are cash sales. As with inventory turnover, you can use either ending receivables or an average of beginning and ending. You also run into the same seasonal issues as discussed with inventory. Probably the best benchmark for days’ sales in receivables is the company’s credit terms. If the company offers a discount (1/10 net 30), then you would like to see days’ sales in receivables less than 30. If the company does not offer a discount (net 30), then you would like to see days’ sales in receivables close to the net terms. If days’ sales in receivables is substantially larger than the net terms, then you first need to look for biases, such as seasonality in sales. If this does not provide an explanation for the difference, then the company may need to take another look at its credit policy (who it grants credit to and its collection procedures).

资产管理或周转率指标计算

资产管理或周转率指标计算 Having a TAT of less than one is not a problem for most firms. Fixed assets are expensive and are meant to provide sales over a long period of time. This is why the matching principle indicates that they should be depreciated instead of immediately expensed. This is one of the ratios that will be used in the DuPont identity.

盈利能力指标计算 You can also compute the gross profit margin and the operating profit margin. GPM = (Sales – COGS) / Sales OPM = EBIT / Sales Profit margin is one of the components of the DuPont identity and is a measure of operating efficiency. It measures how well the firm controls the costs required to generate the revenues. It tells how much the firm earns for every dollar in sales. In the example, the firm earns almost $0.16 for each dollar in sales. Note that the ROA and ROE are returns on accounting numbers. As such, they are not directly comparable with returns found in the marketplace. ROA is sometimes referred to as ROI (return on investment). As with many of the ratios, there are variations in how they can be computed. The most important thing is to make sure that you are computing them the same way as the benchmark you are using. ROE will always be higher than ROA as long as the firm has debt (and ROA is positive). The greater the leverage, the larger the difference will be. ROE is often used as a measure of how well management is attaining the goal of owner wealth maximization. The DuPont identity is used to identify factors that affect the ROE.

市值指标 See Table 3.5, as well as the instructor’s manual (chapter 3 appendix), for a summary list of financial ratios.

2.5 杜邦分析法 ※ 参阅P41

财务报表分析中的问题 财务比率本身并不能说明多少问题，需要比较； 趋势分析 同业分析 SIC codes have been used many years to identify industries and allow for comparison with industry average ratios. The SIC codes are limited, however, and have not kept pace with a rapidly changing environment. Consequently, the North American Industry Classification System was introduced in 1997 to alleviate some of the problems with SIC codes. Click on the web surfer to go the NAICS home page. It provides information on the change to the NAICS and conversion between SIC and NAICS codes.

财务报表分析中的问题 没有理论可以告诉我们什么是标准值或如何设立标准值；很难说哪个财务比率更重要，以及什么样的值才是高或者低。对多元化企业来说尤其如此。 全球化和国际竞争导致会计规则的差异使得跨国比较更加困难。 企业可以可取不同的会计处理方法，选择不同的时间作为财年结束日期，使会计报表很难比较。另外，一些企业出现非正常或暂时性事件，可能影响企业业绩。

2.6 外部融资与增长 投资于新资产 —由资本预算决策决定 财务杠杆比率— 由资本结构决策决定 股东分红比率— 由股利政策决定 流动性需求 — 由净营运资本决策决定

财务计划要素 销售收入预测 预计的财务报表 资产需求 融资需求 调节变量 ※ 参阅P47 一个简单的财务计划模型

销售百分比方法 财务报表中一些项目直接与销售收入挂钩，其他项目与销售收入不直接相关。 利润表 成本随销售收入变化而变化； 折旧和利息成本与销售收入不直接相关； 股利发放与销售收入不直接相关。 ※ 参阅P48～50 销售百分比法

销售百分比方法 资产负债表 所有资产随销售收入变化而变化； 应付账款也随销售收入变化而变化； 应付票据、长期负债和权益不随销售收入变化而变化； 外部融资需求 预计资产的增加额与预计的负债和权益增加额之差即为外部融资需求。

销售百分比与外部融资需求 ※ 参阅P49～50

销售百分比方法 初始利润表 初始资产负债表 依据销售增长假设 外部增长率给定 预测的局部的资产负债表 预测的利润表 外部融资需求量 预测的资产负债表

外部融资与增长 当增长率较低时，内部融资可能超过投资额； 随着增长率提高，内部融资不足，企业将需要外部融资； 考察增长与外部融资之间的关系是长期财务计划的有用工具。 ※ 参阅P51～53

内部增长率 内部增长率是指只依赖留存收益作为唯一的融资来源时企业所能达到的最大增长率。 The information for these calculations is given in Table 3.15. This firm could grow assets at 9.65% without raising additional external capital. Relying solely on internally generated funds will increase equity (retained earnings are part of equity) and assets without an increase in debt. Consequently, the firm’s leverage will decrease over time. If there is an optimal amount of leverage, as we will discuss in later chapters, then the firm may want to borrow to maintain that optimal level of leverage. This idea leads us to the sustainable growth rate.

可持续增长率 可持续增长率是指在使用内部资金和外部债务资金且保持债务比率不变的情况下企业可以达到的最大增长率。 Note that no new equity is issued. The sustainable growth rate is substantially higher than the internal growth rate. This is because we are allowing the company to issue debt as well as use internal funds. Commonly, sustainable growth is calculated as only the numerator of our formula (ROE * b), but this assumes we calculate ROE based on beginning, rather than ending, equity.

增长率的决定因素 销售净利率——经营效率 总资产周转率——资产使用效率 财务杠杆——最优债务比率的选择 股利政策——股利发放与再投资的权衡 The first three components come from the ROE and the Du Pont identity. It is important to note at this point that growth is not the goal of a firm in and of itself. Growth is only important so long as it continues to maximize shareholder value. ※ 参阅P55

注意事项 财务计划模型并没有告诉我们哪种财务政策是最优的。 模型是现实世界的简化，而世界的变化常常出乎意料。 没有财务计划，企业就像没有舵而在变化的海洋中航行。 人生又何尝不是如此呢？

课堂提问 最重要的三张财务报表是什么? 财务分析方法主要有哪些? 财务比率主要分为几大类? 如何计算各个比率值? 财务报表分析中存在哪些问题?

课堂提问 长期计划的目的是什么? 长期计划中涉及的主要决策有哪些? 什么是销售比率法? 什么是内部增长率? 什么是可持续增长率? 增长率的主要决定因素有哪些?

课后作业 完成“× ×上市公司财务报表分析报告” 完成教材P58～59的小案例。