DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS DCA.S02L01 DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS For ecology and biology Using R 概率论简史 戎可 13654664079 rongke@nefu.edu.cn

古典概率论的缘起 Christiaan Huygens, FRS (1629 –1695) Huygens was a prominent Dutch mathematician and scientist. He is known particularly as an astronomer, physicist, probabilist and horologist. He was a leading scientist of his time. His work included early telescopic studies of the rings of Saturn and the discovery of its moon Titan, the invention of the pendulum clock and other investigations in timekeeping. He published major studies of mechanics and optics (having been one of the most influential proponents of the wave theory of light), and pioneered work on games of chance. wikipedia

古典概率论的初现 Christiaan Huygens, FRS (1629 –1695) Huygens was a prominent Dutch mathematician and scientist. He is known particularly as an astronomer, physicist, probabilist and horologist. He was a leading scientist of his time. His work included early telescopic studies of the rings of Saturn and the discovery of its moon Titan, the invention of the pendulum clock and other investigations in timekeeping. He published major studies of mechanics and optics (having been one of the most influential proponents of the wave theory of light), and pioneered work on games of chance. (wikipedia)

研究过一、两个概率计算问题 Sir Isaac Newton PRS (1642 –1726) 岩泽宏和, 戴华晶. 改变世界的134个概率统计故事. 湖南科学技术出版社, 长沙, 2016 Sir Isaac Newton PRS (1642 –1726) Newton was an English mathematician, astronomer, and physicist (described in his own day as a "natural philosopher") who is widely recognized as one of the most influential scientists of all time and a key figure in the scientific revolution. His book Philosophiæ Naturalis Principia Mathematica ("Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy"), first published in 1687, laid the foundations of classical mechanics. Newton also made pathbreaking contributions to optics, and he shares credit with Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz for developing the infinitesimal calculus. (wikipedia)

独立于牛顿确立了微积分学 对概率论兴趣巨大 ，却几乎毫无贡献 也许哲学家的性格扰乱了他的思考 岩泽宏和, 戴华晶. 改变世界的134个概率统计故事. 湖南科学技术出版社, 长沙, 2016 Gottfried Wilhelm (von) Leibniz (1646 –1716) Leibniz was a German polymath and philosopher who occupies a prominent place in the history of mathematics and the history of philosophy, having developed differential and integral calculus independently of Isaac Newton. Leibniz's notation has been widely used ever since it was published. It was only in the 20th century that his Law of Continuity and Transcendental Law of Homogeneity found mathematical implementation (by means of non-standard analysis). He became one of the most prolific inventors in the field of mechanical calculators. While working on adding automatic multiplication and division to Pascal's calculator, he was the first to describe a pinwheel calculator in 1685 and invented the Leibniz wheel, used in the arithmometer, the first mass-produced mechanical calculator. He also refined the binary number system, which is the foundation of virtually all digital computers. (wikipedia)

古典概率论的中兴 　　德蒙马特在1708年出版过一本叫作《偶然游戏的分析试论》(Essay d'analyse sur les jeux de hazard)的书，是打破之前整整50年概率论停滞不前状态的第一人。 Pierre Rémond de Montmort (1678 – 1719) Montmort was a French mathematician, was born in Paris. He was friendly with several other notable mathematicians, and especially Nicholas Bernoulli, who collaborated with him while visiting his estate. He was elected a fellow of the Royal Society in 1715, while traveling again to England, and became a member of the French Academy of Sciences in 1716. (wikipedia)

古典概率论的中兴 1713年(伯努利辞世8年后)出版了一本叫作《猜度术》(Ars Conjectandi)的书。 伯努利试验 伯努利分布 伯努利定理 岩泽宏和, 戴华晶. 改变世界的134个概率统计故事. 湖南科学技术出版社, 长沙, 2016 Jacob Bernoulli (1655 – 1705) Bernoulli was one of the many prominent mathematicians in the Bernoulli family. He was an early proponent of Leibnizian calculus and had sided with Leibniz during the Leibniz–Newton calculus controversy. He is known for his numerous contributions to calculus, and along with his brother Johann, was one of the founders of the calculus of variations. He also discovered the fundamental mathematical constant e. However, his most important contribution was in the field of probability, where he derived the first version of the law of large numbers in his work Ars Conjectandi. (wikipedia)

古典概率论的中兴 　　毫无疑问，对于概率论所做出的贡献，能够超过棣莫弗的数学家只有拉普拉斯一人。 Isaac Todhunter《概率论史》 1718年出版了《偶然论》(The Doctrine of Chances: a method of calculating the probabilities of events in play) 岩泽宏和, 戴华晶. 改变世界的134个概率统计故事. 湖南科学技术出版社, 长沙, 2016 Abraham de Moivre (1667 –1754) Moivre was a French mathematician known for de Moivre's formula, a formula that links complex numbers and trigonometry, and for his work on the normal distribution and probability theory. He was a friend of Isaac Newton, Edmond Halley, and James Stirling. Even though he faced religious persecution he remained a "steadfast Christian" throughout his life.[1] Among his fellow Huguenot exiles in England, he was a colleague of the editor and translator Pierre des Maizeaux. (wikipedia)

欧拉是伟大的数学家，在数学的几乎所有领域都建树颇丰，但对概率论的贡献却比较少。 　　欧拉是伟大的数学家，在数学的几乎所有领域都建树颇丰，但对概率论的贡献却比较少。 岩泽宏和, 戴华晶. 改变世界的134个概率统计故事. 湖南科学技术出版社, 长沙, 2016 Leonhard Euler (1707 – 1783) Euler was a Swiss mathematician, physicist, astronomer, logician and engineer who made important and influential discoveries in many branches of mathematics like infinitesimal calculus and graph theory while also making pioneering contributions to several branches such as topology and analytic number theory. He also introduced much of the modern mathematical terminology and notation, particularly for mathematical analysis, such as the notion of a mathematical function. He is also known for his work in mechanics, fluid dynamics, optics, astronomy, and music theory. (wikipedia)

古典概率论的完成 1812 《概率的解析理论》 (Théorie analytique des probabilités) 1814 《关于概率的哲学随笔》 (A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities) 拉普拉斯算子 拉普拉斯妖 拉普拉斯方程 拉普拉斯变换 拉普拉斯分布 岩泽宏和, 戴华晶. 改变世界的134个概率统计故事. 湖南科学技术出版社, 长沙, 2016 Pierre-Simon, marquis de Laplace (1749 –1827) Laplace was an influential French scholar whose work was important to the development of mathematics, statistics, physics and astronomy. He summarised and extended the work of his predecessors in his five-volume Mécanique Céleste (Celestial Mechanics) (1799–1825). This work translated the geometric study of classical mechanics to one based on calculus, opening up a broader range of problems. In statistics, the Bayesian interpretation of probability was developed mainly by Laplace. (wikipedia)

正态分布的时代 1801年，在有关误差的概率性研究基础上，使用统计性手法，准确地预测了谷神星出现的时间和位置。 Pauce sed matura 岩泽宏和, 戴华晶. 改变世界的134个概率统计故事. 湖南科学技术出版社, 长沙, 2016 Johann Carl Friedrich Gauss (1777 –1855) Gauss was a German mathematician who contributed significantly to many fields, including number theory, algebra, statistics, analysis, differential geometry, geodesy, geophysics, mechanics, electrostatics, magnetic fields, astronomy, matrix theory, and optics. (wikipedia)