Risk Assessment to Adaptation Planning, Implementation and Evaluation Presidential Plaza Hotel, Beijing Friday, 05th March 2009 Roger B Street Technical Director

从风险评估到适应预测， 实施与评价 北京国宾酒店 2010年3月5日 Roger B Street 技术指导 2

Why Risk Assessment ? Faced with an uncertain future Risk-based approach to managing in the context of these changes (climate and other drivers) – a rationale approach Risk assessment Used to identify risks – necessary but insufficient Used to concentrate efforts (investments, policies and programmes) on those risks deemed priorities Adaptation assessment – identifying “appropriate” adaptation options and strategies and evaluating them in terms of criteria such as availability, benefits, effectiveness, efficiency and feasibility. 3

为什么要进行风险评估？ 面对未来不确定性 在（气候和其他动因）不断变化的情况下，使用基于风险的方法进行管理–理论方法 风险评估 用于识别风险—有必要却尚有不足 将力量（投资、政策与项目）集中于被视为有风险的优先项上 适应评估—识别“合适的”适应选择和策略，并从有效性、收益、效力、效率及可行性等角度进行评估

Understanding to what you are adapting Projected Precipitation Change – Summer Year-to-year summertime variability 30-year summer mean - Models - Observations 5

了解你在适应什么 降水量变化预测– 夏季 Year-to-year summertime variability 30-year summer mean 降雨量变化 有可能发生 非常有可能发生 - 模型 -观测结果

Resources Needed to Support Continuous improvement Monitoring and Evaluation Strategies Understanding of system and its vulnerabilities Current climate and climate scenarios Vulnerability and risk assessment tools and guidance Engagement strategies and guidance Case studies and other evidence Options evaluation and sensitivity testing

需要获取的资源 不断改进 策略监控与评价 了解系统及其脆弱性 当前气候与气候情景分析 脆弱性和风险评估工具与指导 参与战略与指导 1.确定问题和目标 2.确立决策标准 3.评估风险 4.识别可选方案 5.评估可选方案 6.决策 7.决策实施8.监控 脆弱性和风险评估工具与指导 参与战略与指导 个案研究与其他证据 可选项评估与敏感性测试

Predict, Optimise and Relax Focus is on the climate and projected changes Often assumes that we are adapted to “today” Follows a linear model: Focus is on getting the climate “right” – uncertainty remains a barrier to decision making Tendency for decision and policy makers to hold off awaiting better climate information and there is a need to start over each time there is new projections Climate Projections Impacts Adaptation

预测、优化与放松 聚焦气候与预期变化 时常假定我们是在适应“今天” 遵循线性模型: 气候预测 “彻底弄清楚”气候—不确定因素会对决策构成障碍 决策者与政策制定者有这样一种倾向，他们会延时决策以等待更佳的气候信息，因此，每当有新的预期出现，就要从头开始。 气候预测 影响 适应

Assess, Adjust and Review Focus is on understanding the climate (and other) risks Assumes that “today” may need some further adaptation (benefits the day job) Allows for “adjustments” as benefits and changes in risk are realised Recognises the need for a recursive model Uncertainty and risk are made explicit and addressed and can be communicated

评估、调整与回顾 焦点认识气候（及其他）风险 假定“今天”就可能需要更进一步的适应 （有益于当前工作） 需要递归式模型 明确不确定因素与风险， 确保其得到相应关注 并相互传达 随着风险收益的实现与变化的发生，允许出现“调整”

An Effective Adaptation Approach Recognises that uncertainties exist and will continue to exist: Coping with risks associated with present climate variability and extremes – dealing with the existing adaptation deficit Adopting a risk-based approach (risk = likelihood X consequences) Moving beyond identifying an optimal adaptation strategy (“brittle”) to one which is adaptive – robust and adjustable Enhancing flexibility or resilience (capacity to adapt to stress and change) of hard-to-reverse investments Introducing adaptation measures incrementally – what makes sense today and designed to allow incremental adjustments – defining an adaptation pathway Capable of moving beyond simply coping – knowledge of thresholds and when existing investments, strategies and practices are no longer viable

有效的适应方法 认识到不确定因素始终存在: 应对与当前气候脆弱性和极端事件相关的风险 – 解决现有适应的不足 采取基于风险的方法（风险=可能性X影响） 从最佳适应策略（ “脆性” ）到自适应策略 – 稳健又可调 加强不易流转投资的弹性或适应性（能够适应压力和变化） 逐渐引入适应措施 –既在当前可行，又可吸纳渐进式调整–确定适应途径 能够超越简单应对—了解阈值、了解现有投资、策略与实践何时失效 14

Supporting Effective Adaptation An on-line tool to help organisations adapt to climate change - Adaptation Wizard http://www.ukcip.org.uk/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=147&Itemid=297 Based on “risk and uncertainty in decision-making” framework Shares the risk framework’s intellectual basis and key concepts, but is presented in a “lighter”, action–oriented style.

推进有效适应 帮助组织团体适应气候变化的在线工具—适应指导http://www.ukcip.org.uk/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=147&Itemid=297 以“决策风险与不确定性”框架为基础 分享风险框架的知识基础与关键概念，表述更加“轻松”、以行动为导向 16

Developing an adaptation strategy Adaptation Wizard – a 5 step process that facilitates exploration by those using it to: Understand key concerns and issues Assess vulnerability to current climate and future climate chang Identify options to address key climate risks Develop a climate change adaptation strategy 17

发展适应策略 适应指导 – 认识适应策略五部曲: 了解关注点与主要问题 评估当前气候脆弱性与未来气候变化脆弱性 识别应对主要气候风险的可 选项 发展气候变化适应策略 2.我易受气候变化影响吗？ 3. 气候变化将对我产生怎样的影响 5.保持相关性 4.我该怎么做？ 我的了解全面吗？ 4b.了解更多 4a.适应选择的识别、评估与实施

Understanding Concerns and Context Essential first step to answer these questions: What is your motivation for undertaking this assessment? What do you intend to achieve? How will you judge whether this process has been successful? Who should be involved and why? Are the necessary resources (information and possible finances) available to complete the process? Are there any barriers to overcome, and if so how will you do that? What is the risk attitude?

了解关注点及周边 回答这些问题关键步骤: 你为什么要了解这一评估? 你想实现什么样的目的? 你如何判断这一方法是否成功? 涉及哪些人群，为什么？ 完成评估的必要资源（信息与资金）是否齐备？是否存在障碍？如果有，你打算如何克服？ 什么是风险态度? 1.开始 20

The final plan may be a combination of approaches Max water level rise : H++ Scenario Scenario 1 Scenario 2 H+ Scenario 0m 1m 2m 3m 4m Improve Thames Barrier and raise d/s defences Over-rotate Thames Barrier and restore interim defences Flood storage, improve Thames Barrier, raise u/s & d/s defences Existing system Raise Defences Flood storage, over rotate Thames Barrier, raise u/s & d/s defences Flood storage, restore interim defences New barrier, retain Thames Barrier, raise defences New barrier, raise defences To simplify a complex problem we take time out of the equation using maximum flood level rise as a surrogate for climate change with time. We then developed different portfolios of responses to manage these rising flood levels through four principal pathways or “routes” through the century. The final plan could be a combination of approaches. Putting the four climate change scenarios back on the diagram enables us to understand the epochs at which different portfolios of measures may have to be implemented and the sequencing arrangements for the different flood management responses. New barrage The final plan may be a combination of approaches 21

最终规划可以是多种方法的结合体 情景1 情景2 水位上涨最大值: H+情景 H++ Scenario 0m 1m 2m 3m 4m 改进泰晤士水闸，加高d/s防御工事 过旋泰晤闸 ，重建临时工事 蓄洪，改进泰晤士水闸，加高u/s 与d/s防御工事 现有系统 加筑堤坝 蓄洪，过旋泰晤士水闸，加高u/s 与d/s防御工事 蓄洪，重建临时防御工事 蓄洪，过旋泰晤士水闸，加高u/s 与d/s防御工事 新建堤坝、加高防御工事 To simplify a complex problem we take time out of the equation using maximum flood level rise as a surrogate for climate change with time. We then developed different portfolios of responses to manage these rising flood levels through four principal pathways or “routes” through the century. The final plan could be a combination of approaches. Putting the four climate change scenarios back on the diagram enables us to understand the epochs at which different portfolios of measures may have to be implemented and the sequencing arrangements for the different flood management responses. 新堰坝 最终规划可以是多种方法的结合体

Developing a Response Surface Identifying the behaviour of the system of interest (inflow into a lake) with projected changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) across plausible ranges Different scenarios at different time periods plotted on this

建立反映曲面 在所有合理的气候变化预测(气温与降水) 范围内识别所关注的系统 (湖泊注水量) 不同情景分析于不同时间段在反映面上绘点 年流量 年降水量变化 气温变化

Developing a Response Surface Identifying the behaviour of the system of interest (capability of land to support agriculture – different classes) with projected changes in climate (accumulated temperature and soil moisture) across plausible ranges. Baseline and different scenarios at different time periods plotted on this surface

建立反映曲面 在所有合理的气候变化预测(积温与土壤水分) 范围内识别所关注系统的行为（土地耕种能力—不同级别） 土地能力 基线和不同情景分析在不同时间段在反映面上绘点 积温 土壤水分（潜在） 赤字

Using the Adaptation Framework

适应框架应用

Examples of Results – Northern Ningxia

产出举例 – 宁夏北部

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