Unemployment: Issues, Dimensions, and Analysis 第六講：勞動力與失業問題 Todaro Chapter 7 Perkins Chapter 8 1

本講大綱 緒論Introduction 發展中國家失業問題的範圍：證據和觀念 決定就業的經濟模型 技術與就業 (Perkins et al. , Ch. 8) 其他就業政策Other employment policies 就業創造策略Employment Creation Strategies 作業 Homework for the next session

緒論Introduction 西方先進國家發展經驗：都市工業化和農業機械化使人力有系統的從農村移轉到都市。 有些經濟學家認為發展中國家也應如此，促進都市工業化使經濟快速成長，但效果不彰。 就業問題的範圍超出只是工作機會的缺乏或人民的低使用率及低生產力。

發展中國家就業問題史無前例，需用非傳統性的經濟分析，理由 : 討論就業問題:*** 解答兩個問題 發展中國家的都市化過程與發達國家的經驗大不相同 全球化與知識經濟下的白領階級失業問題

Sudan Boy

The Employment Problem: Some Basic Issues Developing countries are plagued by: massive rural-to-urban migration stagnating agricultural productivity increasing underemployment and unemployment Unemployment and underemployment affect a larger proportion of LDC labor forces

The Employment Problem: Some Basic Issues, cont’d LDC employment problems have more complicated causes than those in the developed world Employment problems in LDCs are associated with abject poverty

發展中國家失業問題的範圍：證據和觀念 就業和失業：趨勢和預估

Dimensions of LDC Unemployment: Evidence and Concepts Employment and unemployment: trends and projections

就業問題四面觀 受過教育的失業者。Table 7.3 自行就業(self-employment)。 Table 7.4

Dimensions of LDC Unemployment: Evidence and Concepts Employment and unemployment: trends and projections Four dimensions of the employment problem the educated unemployed

Dimensions of LDC Unemployment: Evidence and Concepts Employment and unemployment: trends and projections Four dimensions of the employment problem the educated unemployed self-employment

Dimensions of LDC Unemployment: Evidence and Concepts Employment and unemployment: trends and projections Four dimensions of the employment problem the educated unemployed self-employment women and employment

Dimensions of LDC Unemployment: Evidence and Concepts Employment and unemployment: trends and projections Four dimensions of the employment problem the educated unemployed self-employment women and employment youth unemployment and child labor

Dimensions of LDC Unemployment: Evidence and Concepts, cont’d Labor force: present and projected Labor underutilization: some definitional distinctions Linkages among unemployment, poverty, and income distribution

勞動力的現況和未來 發展中國家尋職人數決定於人口規模和年齡結構:*** 不論人口成長率如何，生育率和死亡率對年齡結構有不同意義 生育率下降對勞動力規模和年齡結構的影響要長時間才見效 發展中國家勞動力 之成長

勞動利用率的定義 [Edgar Edwards] 公開失業Open unemployment 就業不足。Underemployment 表面上積極但實際尚未充分利用。The visibly active but underutilized 隱藏性未充分就業Disguised underemployment 隱藏性失業Hidden unemployment 提早退休Premature retirement 健康受損者The impaired 不具生產力者The unproductive

World Bank Indicators 2004  Unemployment refers to the share of the labor force without work but available for and seeking employment. Definitions of labor force and unemployment differ by country • Long-term unemployment refers to the number of people with continuous periods of unemployment extending for a year or longer, expressed as a percentage of the total unemployed. • Unemployment by level of educational attainment shows the unemployed by level of educational attainment, as a percentage of the total unemployed. The levels of educational attainment accord with the International Standard Classification of Education 1997 of the United Nations Educational, Cultural, and Scientific Organization (UNESCO).

失業、貧窮、所得分配之關聯 以上三者有密切相關。Table 7.7 拉美五國經驗 減少貧窮和分配不均的主要工具是增加窮人的就業機會

無業者的增加和產出-就業時差(output-employment lag) 1960年代發展理論：經由大量資本累積及迅速工業發展就會有成功的經濟發展。 這種樂觀的想法一直沒有實現過，也是過去數十年來發展過程最大的失敗之一。Table 7.8，1960年代製造業產出成長率比製造業就業成長率高出3-4倍，成為產出-就業時差現象，持續到1980年代，此時產出成長趨緩而實質工資下降。1990-2000預測仍有同樣情況。

Dimensions of LDC Unemployment: Evidence and Concepts, cont’d Labor force: present and projected Labor underutilization: some definitional distinctions Linkages among unemployment, poverty, and income distribution The phenomenon of jobless growth and the output-employment lag

決定就業的經濟模型 傳統競爭性自由市場模型(Traditional Competitive Free-Market Model) 。Fig. 7.1 產出與就業成長：衝突或和諧 成長模型和就業水準：衝突論 成長和就業：和諧論 適當技術和就業創造：價格鼓勵模型(Appropriate Technology and Employment Generation: The Price-Incentive Model)

適當技術和就業創造：價格鼓勵模型 技術的選擇：例證 。Fig. 7.2 傳統技術選擇的經濟學 要素扭曲和適當技術 勞動-資本代替的可能性

Economic Models of Employment Determination The traditional competitive free-market model

Economic Models of Employment Determination The traditional competitive free-market model Output and employment growth: conflict or congruence?

Economic Models of Employment Determination (7.1)

總生產成長率─每位勞動力之生產力＝勞動力增加率 7％-4％＝3％

Economic Models of Employment Determination The traditional competitive free-market model Output and employment growth: conflict or congruence? Appropriate technology and employment generation: the price incentive model

Economic Models of Employment Determination The elasticity of factor substitution:

生產要素代替彈性 分子：（勞動總數/資本存量）比率的增加率 分母： （資本價格/勞動價格）比率的增加率 r/w 10% decline in w/r =>5% fall in K/L 即在固定勞動下，投資少5％

其他就業政策Other employment policies 改善所得分配 投資在幫助勞力的設施（如灌溉）而非代替勞力 增加生產容量使用率 小型非正式部門的企業可多用勞力少用資本

就業創造策略Employment Creation Strategies 把就業當作發展政策和計畫的一種目標在1970開始才獲得重視 採用何種創造就業的策略影響經濟規模和經濟結構

作業 Homework for the next session Todaro 第七章 選擇題（上網） http://www.aw-bc.com/todaro_smith/

Concepts for Review Age structure of the population Appropriate technologies “Big Push” theory of development Complementary resources Discouraged workers Disguised unemployment Elasticity of factor substitution Equilibrium wage rate Factor-price distortions Fixed input coefficients

Concepts for Review, cont’d Flexible wages Free-market classical model Full employment Hidden unemployment Industrialization Informal sector Jobless growth Labor force Neoclassical price-incentive model Open unemployment Output-employment lag Output-employment macro model

Concepts for Review, cont’d Premature retirement Price-incentive macro model Rural-urban migration models Shadow price Underemployment Underutilization of labor Urbanization Voluntary unemployment